Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

I agree with your analysis 100%. And yes, the price is at least reasonable I suppose, all things considered.

I guess what I'm trying to say, is that considering the SP was in the 900s in February, and considering that C19 seems to have strengthened Tesla's competitive position relative to Big Auto (and maybe even Big Energy now), a solid Q1, multiple upgrades, and so on, I'm surprised SP isn't at least in the mid- to upper-800s.

Additionally, so much more talk recently regarding air pollution and poor C19 outcomes, how states/countries want more incentives to get more people driving EVs, more chatter around governments investing in ESG-focused companies going forward, I would think SP would be higher, that's all.

But whatever, merely the TSLA bull in me speculating.

Agree with you completely except the share price was over $900 for only a few hours in Feb. Not much more than a blip on the radar. That was also pre-COVID.

We still sit in a lot of uncertainty about COVID and the global economy. If everything doesn't collapse into a sinkhole, just give it time. Battery Day and Tesla's execution the rest of 2020 may cause TSLA to exceed all expectations.

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon Musk on Twitter

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Stop twisting my arm Elon, we are saving for my wife's Model Y

 

[dqd88]

Elon Musk on Twitter

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Speaking of robotaxis...
Must be getting closer.
Or, juicing Q2 sales?

Just curious - is anyone buying the car as an investment/asset the way you would view say a house/rental property for appreciation?

 

[HG Wells]

Just curious - is anyone buying the car as an investment/asset the way you would view say a house/rental property for appreciation?

Easy investment. Take $100 and put order in. Don't have to schedule delivery.

 

[TespaceX]

Just curious - is anyone buying the car as an investment/asset the way you would view say a house/rental property for appreciation?

WTH?!

 

[Dutchie]

Elon Musk on Twitter

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If price of FSD goes up in increments of $1,000 then it will take a while before FSD is realized.

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon Musk on Twitter

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Glad Elon agrees with my back of the napkin estimate for how much they can sell it for

But it will be interesting what they charge at each level before its fully approve from regulators.

For instance how much could they sell it for at full competency but without regulatory approval? It would have to be a steep drop to say $20k or maybe $30k. You won't have the commercial market demand pressure until it's approved.

You may have some people running taxi services rogue, but it can't be that large.

There will be a gray market for entrepreneurial data scientist who can WFH WFC and train models on their laptop while earning an extra $50k a year. Hmm...

 

[JRP3]

If price of FSD goes up in increments of $1,000 then it will take a while before FSD is realized.

 

[Etna]

This FSD pricing still looks very much like a shot in the dark. There will be a huge disconnect between a robotaxi operating commercial rides generating thousands in monthly revenues and grandma with a cancelled driver's license doing her groceries and socials with the Model Y she received from her daughter as a 90th birthday gift of prolonged independence.

Today many software companies offer licenses for commercial and home use. FSD will be no exception, eventually.

 

[bhtooefr]

Although, wasn't there speculation that a Tesla car would just cost $200,000 to buy because that's the value that each car would deliver to Tesla in their ownership?

In that case, it could well be that Tesla goes to a subscription-only model, with the exception of low-volume halo stuff like the Roadster.

 

[MP3Mike]

Although, wasn't there speculation that a Tesla car would just cost $200,000 to buy because that's the value that each car would deliver to Tesla in their ownership?

I suspect at some point there will be two versions of FSD. One that costs a lot and can participate in the Tesla Network with Tesla only taking 30% of the ride revenue. And another version of FSD that will cost much less but will be for "personal use only" and can not participate in the Tesla Network. (Or can with Tesla taking 80%, or more, of the ride revenue.)

 

[Stretch2727]

Just curious - is anyone buying the car as an investment/asset the way you would view say a house/rental property for appreciation?

I don't think Elon's 100k value applies to everyone and every car.

Sure I could rent out the empty bedrooms in my house and make some money. Am I going to? No.
Same with my car. I am not going rent it out just to make some extra $. I want it clean and sitting in the driveway ready to take me at a moment's notice. I don't want to wait even 60 secs for an Uber type service to take me to the store. Would I buy FSD at a reasonable price for my personal use, yes.

As an investor I might buy an extra car with FSD to make some $$. Yes. Would I pay a lot more for this in total? Yes, as it is making me money. It is an investment which yields a return.

I think the better approach is modest upfront cost and charge $$ on a per mile robotaxi basis. This way it is available at a reasonable cost to someone that wants it for personal use only. Use subscription or per mile fees for the investors/robotaxi operators to capture the value they are getting from FSD.

Making everyone pay for the potential Robotaxi value is going to lead to lower adoption. As the price rises many will decide against FSD knowing they will likely never allow their car be used as a Robotaxi.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a bit of an aside, so sorry if it is off-topic, but I really wish Tesla would enable short-term subscriptions for features like this.

I will not pay 7k (or 8k) for this on the car long-term, as I just don't drive enough to justify the cost.

I would, however, pay for it a month or so at a time for when I had road-trips and really wanted those extra features over basic autopilot.

Sprained my wrist real bad a few days ago; AP to the rescue. Totally worth the price.

 

[bkp_duke]

Sprained my wrist real bad a few days ago; AP to the rescue. Totally worth the price.

I drive 6k miles a year, most of that is weekend driving for fun. My cost per mile for FSD usage would be way too high to pay for it outright.

 

[Thumper]

I notice the supercharger is back at Nuremburgring. Looks like the plaid may be visiting again soon.

 

[Char]

Just curious - is anyone buying the car as an investment/asset the way you would view say a house/rental property for appreciation?

Actually, if you want a good investment, buy TSLA, not a Tesla! If I had bought TSLA last June Instead of buying my Tesla, I could, today, buy 4 Tesla’s with my TSLA!

Kind of like if I bought AAPL in 1985 instead of my Apple Mac Plus, I could buy today a freakin’ HOUSE!

THAT’S an investment!

(fortunately I DID buy AAPL and TSLA sometime after I bought that Mac Plus and Tesla 3 LR/AWD and they have paid back the cost of the car and every Apple item I’ve ever bought MANY times over!)

 

[EVortex]

I agree with your analysis 100%. And yes, the price is at least reasonable I suppose, all things considered.

I guess what I'm trying to say, is that considering the SP was in the 900s in February, and considering that C19 seems to have strengthened Tesla's competitive position relative to Big Auto (and maybe even Big Energy now), a solid Q1, multiple upgrades, and so on, I'm surprised SP isn't at least in the mid- to upper-800s.

Additionally, so much more talk recently regarding air pollution and poor C19 outcomes, how states/countries want more incentives to get more people driving EVs, more chatter around governments investing in ESG-focused companies going forward, I would think SP would be higher, that's all.

But whatever, merely the TSLA bull in me speculating.

Seemed like it was trying to break out at times today, but just couldn’t maintain any momentum. I also expected more, but maybe market was focused elsewhere.

 

[Jack6591]

I’m a 64 year old “baby-boomer”. That makes me a younger boomer. At 64, Navigate-on-Autopilot makes me safer— in just a few short years, “Full Self Driving” will mean everything.

It will extend my driving years.

 

[JRP3]

I notice the supercharger is back at Nuremburgring.

Did it leave at some point?

 

[Thumper]

Yes I think it did