Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fred42]

Try CarMax. They just offered me a great deal on a Prius I have. Then, trading my Model 3 in as well. To get a Model X!!!!!! Yessss

Edit: only doing this to contribute to Tesla’s 2Q bottom line. Obviously, I’d otherwise be more fiscally responsible.

Tesla has no fix for acceleration shudder on Raven X's. If yours has this problem, you're just out of luck. The Y and the S are safer choices.

 

[XHabjab]

I see that the rumored Tesla land purchase East of Hutto TX (here) now has a pin title of "Tesla Terafactory Texas - option" on Google maps. The aerial view of the property below...



This is all still speculation of course. I hear from some local landowners though that there is some new construction in the area.

 

[smorgasbord]

Right over your head....

Nice recovery try, but no sale.

 

[dww12]

I drove out to Hutto. I got there with 15 minutes before the sun set so I did not have much time to explore. Here is what it looked like.

 

[smorgasbord]

I think you are trying hard to find negatives here.

Being in the S&P 500 is better than not being in it, smart fund managers may already be buying, but there will probably be some net buying.

Index funds will probably be mainly buy and hold... and not regular sellers..

It may make manipulating the price by a short selling spree much more difficult...

Beyond that Tesla trades on the fundamentals, S&P 500 inclusion is only an indication of a maturing company. Building factories, making cars, growing revenue and making profits are more important.

I don't see any slow down in the rate of Tesla's revenue growth on the horizon, it is a fair bet those other stocks might have been closer to their full potential and on a slower growth trajectory.

That's all true, but what it doesn't always (mostly?) do is result in a sustainable increase in the stock price, which is what the OP was discussing.

One of those other stocks was Arista. The jury is still out on what their future growth will be. My point stands that S&P inclusion by itself doesn't really increase the stock price in a sustainable way. We're seeing the run-up already and we're seeing the stabilization effects as well today.

 

[dww12]

More

 

[NZ10K]

I'm not surprised. I used $20k in my most recent thesis, but noted that I thought it was very conservative.


The Value of TSLA

Now this is where I'm struggling, because if Tesla is really going to be able to sell the FSD package for $100,000, or even $50,000, TSLA is truly going to the moon beyond a point of what seems possible.

A $100,000 FSD software package is going to be near 100% margins. Maybe not 100%, but whether it's ~90% or ~95% or ~98% is not going to make a big difference in the following calculations. Keep in mind that it's not unusual for some software companies to have near 100% margins. Some have margins as high as 95%, and Adobe has 88% margins on their software.

Tesla's goal is to continue growing at >50% annually through 2030, which would be ~30M vehicles produced in 2030, but let's assume they manage to produce ~20M vehicles in 2030, give or take a few million.

It seems obvious that, just like standard autopilot, every single car is going to be sold with the FSD package. A lot of regular consumers might not be able to afford a $140,000 vehicle, but plenty of investors will buy up all the vehicles Tesla can produce, if they can make anywhere from 4.3% to 12.9% per year on this 'investment'. Tesla will also be happy to invest any of its own spare cash into this great investment.

As a result, Tesla would end up selling 20,000,000 * $100,000 = $2,000,000,000,000 ($2T) worth of FSD packages each year, at near 100% margins.

Although one would have to subtract taxes first, at a 10x earnings multiple, that'd mean a $20T valuation for JUST Tesla's FSD software business, excluding any vehicle sales, energy, and Tesla Network income.

All your good dreams are based on one single thing - the FSD becomes a reality, which may or may not be true in 10 years.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I drove out to Hutto. I got there with 15 minutes before the sun set so I did not have much time to explore. Here is what it looked like. View attachment 542872 View attachment 542873 View attachment 542874 View attachment 542875 View attachment 542876 View attachment 542877 View attachment 542878View attachment 542879View attachment 542880View attachment 542881

Hard to tell, but I’m guessing most of the on-going construction is the RCR Taylor Logistics Park?

https://taylor.rcrrailco.com/wp-con...r-Logistics-Park-Brochure_UP-BNSF-R112918.pdf

 

[LN1_Casey]

Easy investment. Take $100 and put order in. Don't have to schedule delivery.

Whaaat? How does that work? I thought they cancel your order if you don’t take delivery when they make your car. Is this isolated to the preorder cars like the Cybertruck?

 

[dhanson865]

so how many days until TSLA passes Toyota on this list? Whatever the time frame I underestimated how soon it would happen. I thought it would take longer.

 

[troym]

I think these 2 questions are linked. Tesla previously exported packs to China from GF1, and stockpiled them.
I'm not sure about the technical requirements, but it can be done.

As far as I know Tesla is using local Chinese cells in Shanghai GF and making packs there, in particular for the new LR.
This is a pack line that was previously operational at GF1 and have been in China for some time, local Chinese suppliers only need to make cells with a suitable chemistry in 2170 format. Again I don't see anything overly difficult to achieve here.

Tesla Daily Podcast reports Panasonic confirmed they are sending packs from Nevada to Shanghai. Do you have a source for your comment above? I think the question is how dependent is Shanghai on Nevada? Are all SR packs being shipped in? Are only the LR packs manufactured in Shanghai?

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla Daily Podcast reports Panasonic confirmed they are sending packs from Nevada to Shanghai. Do you have a source for your comment above? I think the question is how dependent is Shanghai on Nevada? Are all SR packs being shipped in? Are only the LR packs manufactured in Shanghai?

The old pack machine going from GF1 to China was common knowledge at one time.

And then there are statements about deals with Chinese cell suppliers:-
CATL signs battery supply agreement with Tesla China

Packs were shipped form GF1 to China earlier,

My impression is Tesla cars can't qualify for Chinese government subsides if the cells are not made in China, Tesla might have had an exception for early production...

I think I saw a fairly definitive source stating there was/or will be cut over to all packs made in China... I'll do more checking.

China: Panasonic Supplied 18% Of MIC Tesla Model 3 Batteries YTD

During the first four months of the year, LG Chem and Panasonic supplied 1.45 GWh of batteries, enough for 28,000 packs:

• LG Chem: 22,904 packs and 1,186,452 kWh (average of 51.8 kWh per pack)
• Panasonic: 4,988 packs and 263,865 kWh (average of 52.9 kWh per pack)

My best guess is CATL is replacing Panasonic for the SR pack..

Rob was talking about an earlier supply from GF1, that is finished now, or will be finished by June, as far as I can tell.

Moneyball on Twitter

Tesla Model 3 with #LFP #battery to start deliveries Aug or Sep,

This Moneyball twitter handle was probably the source for the comment that Panasonic was being phased out.

 

[Buckminster]

People who've done the math on FSD & Robotaxis before should've already realised this, but if Tesla develops software that is proven to drive safer than a human, it will be truly massive.

I tried, but my calculator ran out of zeros....

 

[ZeApelido]

so how many days until TSLA passes Toyota on this list? Whatever the time frame I underestimated how soon it would happen. I thought it would take longer.

View attachment 542919

Why is former VP of IR at Tesla hinting some news this week might put Tesla over Toyotas market cap?

 

[MC3OZ]

This tweet is interesting... Moneyball on Twitter

Currently ~40% Tesla supply localized, including battery, battery module, central control screen module/panel, on-board cameras, AC parts, #China media citing unnamed source close to Tesla. Imported parts include motor, controllers & Autopilot core components, source added.

 

[MC3OZ]

I think the question is how dependent is Shanghai on Nevada?

At this stage it seems they still need motors from Nevada... that would be a good thing to localise..

 

[Steve m]

I don't think Elon's 100k value applies to everyone and every car.

Sure I could rent out the empty bedrooms in my house and make some money. Am I going to? No.
Same with my car. I am not going rent it out just to make some extra $. I want it clean and sitting in the driveway ready to take me at a moment's notice. I don't want to wait even 60 secs for an Uber type service to take me to the store. Would I buy FSD at a reasonable price for my personal use, yes.

As an investor I might buy an extra car with FSD to make some $$. Yes. Would I pay a lot more for this in total? Yes, as it is making me money. It is an investment which yields a return.

I think the better approach is modest upfront cost and charge $$ on a per mile robotaxi basis. This way it is available at a reasonable cost to someone that wants it for personal use only. Use subscription or per mile fees for the investors/robotaxi operators to capture the value they are getting from FSD.

Making everyone pay for the potential Robotaxi value is going to lead to lower adoption. As the price rises many will decide against FSD knowing they will likely never allow their car be used as a Robotaxi.

If Tesla could make 200k over the life of the car by using it as a robo-taxi why would they sell it to you for less?

 

[MC3OZ]

Tesla presentation on VPP and Autobidder - how it all works..

 

[RobStark]

If Tesla could make 200k over the life of the car by using it as a robo-taxi why would they sell it to you for less?

to get the money up front instead of over the lifetime of the car.

same reason it sells battery energy storage to power companies.

 

[Artful Dodger]

FRA:TL0
May 19, 8:49 a.m. GMT+2 ·
758.90 EUR
Eqiv. 830.59 United States Dollar