Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Okay, who here knows what's going on with Tesla Energy? I know one of you knows because an acquaintance who works for a utility casually mentioned Tesla disrupting the whole market. And they refused to tell me more. And they know nothing about Tesla otherwise - they're not a fanboy, investor, or owner. They know because their company knows.

So, spill the beans, people.

"WE" have been told that CATL can give you all the million mile batteries you want. So if there is not a blottleneck for car BEV batteries then the same will be true for the Energy Industry. If that is true then unlimited storage for intermittent solar and wind energy... and an end to fossil fuels ...a complete end.

 

[lafrisbee]

After-action Report: Thu, Jun 11, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Traded: $15,672,143,475.45 ($15.67 B)
Volume: 15,917,655
VWAP: $984.58

Closing SP / VWAP: 98.79%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
TSLA Mkt Cap: $180.438B (104.36% of TM)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 58.1% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.0% (54th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.95% of Short Volume (49th Percentile rank)

Comment: "TSLA walked down in step with the macros"

View attachment 550596

Just one, "Hey Luke ya big dummy, see the SP/VWAP at 101% that don't happen but when a short squeeze is being squooze."

 

[UncaNed]

Bill Maurer of Seeking Alpha (no relation to Rob) has some useful thoughts on Tesla S&P inclusion:

'Back when I wrote that article, I took a look at three top S&P 500 ETFs - the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) - those three alone would have had to add about $4.85 billion in Tesla shares. Well, given Tesla's rise to a market cap of more than $185 billion, the implied weight in the S&P 500 index would now be about 70 basis points, give or take, up from around 58 basis points in my previous update. Combined with the overall market rally and new money coming in thanks to global stimulus, the above three ETFs alone would now have to add almost $6.9 billion in Tesla shares if the company is added to the index. This gives Tesla management even more of a reason to try and get the company GAAP profitable this quarter, and it could deliver Elon Musk another tranche of his massive pay package before the end of 2020.'

This assumes Tesla WANTS to be in S&P 500 ASAP; is there any reason for them to want to wait to another quarter? Perhaps to coincide with an even better 3rd or 4th quarter report for one even more dramatic boost, or to keep handy to boost the SP out in a recession situation or something?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elons take on LiFePO4

View attachment 550572

Jokes on him when the service tech pops the hood and finds out you read Sword Art Online

Of course if he finds Attack on Titan under there Elon will offer you a job on the spot

 

[Thekiwi]

Gonna be new product tier to avoid exactly this..

Not necessarily - could be entirely about lowering cost of goods sold. For example could make all the current models with the same range at a cheaper build cost. That way it makes zero difference to customers, but makes a big difference to investors.

Now of course that doesn’t mean they couldn’t also introduce a higher range product, and also obviously would allow room in future for lowering the retail prices on current range models, but it doesn’t have to happen at battery day (and in fact will take a while to scale the new battery tech one imagines).

 

[mekberg]

Not necessarily - could be entirely about lowering cost of goods sold. For example could make all the current models with the same range at a cheaper build cost. That way it makes zero difference to customers, but makes a big difference to investors.

Exactly this. Either Tesla subsidizes the cost of a car by requiring a certain amount of time plugged to the grid or the car can now generate income by buying low and selling high.

 

[kengchang]

Not necessarily - could be entirely about lowering cost of goods sold. For example could make all the current models with the same range at a cheaper build cost. That way it makes zero difference to customers, but makes a big difference to investors.

Now of course that doesn’t mean they couldn’t also introduce a higher range product, and also obviously would allow room in future for lowering the retail prices on current range models, but it doesn’t have to happen at battery day (and in fact will take a while to scale the new battery tech one imagines).

Tesla ramping up additional 35GWh of capacity secretly without anyone knowing? No way. They aren't tossing the Panasonic capacity away.

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla ramping up additional 35GWh of capacity secretly without anyone knowing? No way. They aren't tossing the Panasonic capacity away.

I don’t disagree. Makes it even more likely that Tesla doesn’t change the range options on current models since it will still be using those panasonic produced cells for a long time.

 

[mickle]

Been thinking about battery day and what could "blow your mind" that also wouldn't osborne demand. Then thinking about the battery project having the code name Road Runner it came to me. It's all about speed. My guess is that they have been able to speed up production by a blow-your-mind amount, I'd guess that would have to be about 10X, in approximately the same space as existing production. That would be a big deal for Tesla, but wouldn't hurt existing sales. And it enables them to start making the Semi. Of course, there will still be all the other improvements to cells and chemistry, etc, on top of that, but those are all just incremental items.

Beep Beep.

 

[Buckminster]

Are you guessing it's in June?

Elon is aiming for June:
Tesla Battery Day Is Postponed With New Announcement | Torque News

 

[Jack6591]

Been thinking about battery day and what could "blow your mind" that also wouldn't osborne demand. Then thinking about the battery project having the code name Road Runner it came to me. It's all about speed. My guess is that they have been able to speed up production by a blow-your-mind amount, I'd guess that would have to be about 10X, in approximately the same space as existing production. That would be a big deal for Tesla, but wouldn't hurt existing sales. And it enables them to start making the Semi. Of course, there will still be all the other improvements to cells and chemistry, etc, on top of that, but those are all just incremental items.

Beep Beep.

Agreed, it’s speed. Semi trucks will take a lot of batteries.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Anyone have thoughts on the Panasonic relationship all of the sudden being rosey?

It was my understanding Panasonic purposely bottlenecked production in 1Q19 to try an leverage a better deal, then Elon called their bluff and moved to take over production fully. Now they're making nice nice?

Tesla and Panasonic reopen talks on Gigafactory investment

Mightn't this be the primary cause of our Battery Day delay(s)?

 

[Motor Mouth]

I just placed an order for solar, and 2 power walls, doing my part in Q2.

How the hell are you going to pay for that....? Oh, right.

 

[LJS22]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
(Tesla downgraded to hold raised price target)
A mixed bag from Goldman. On one hand they upgraded the PT but since it overshot their PT it’s now just a hold. On the other hand they expect auto sales to not drop as much as originally forecast.

They should probably hold off on these PT’s and ratings until after Q2 but I get they got a job to do and in the short term for Q2 things could look bad but that end of year setup should be beautiful,

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
(Tesla downgraded to hold raised price target)
A mixed bag from Goldman. On one hand they upgraded the PT but since it overshot their PT it’s now just a hold. On the other hand they expect auto sales to not drop as much as originally forecast.

They should probably hold off on these PT’s and ratings until after Q2 but I get they got a job to do and in the short term for Q2 things could look bad but that end of year setup should be beautiful,

Not directed at you, but Goldman has always been a laggard on Tesla so I don't see the market reacting to this. But who knows

In exciting news........this Twitter

 

[Scuttlebutt]

A lot of the ones I see in recent years are barely grown-up kids, many scrawny and skinny.

Yes. Just like Software Development/ IT grads.

 

[LJS22]

Not directed at you, but Goldman has always been a laggard on Tesla so I don't see the market reacting to this. But who knows lol

In exciting news........this Twitter

The market loves upgrades and downgrades. Goldman downgraded Apple the day before the market shot up about 6 weeks ago and killed its momentum that day. however it was only a single day reaction as Apple has obviously recovered. So I expect an initial reaction but if the market is good then Tesla is in line for a recovery tomorrow also.

Also Tesla is suppose to have a lot of talk on Squawk Box as they were featuring a segment on it earlier today.

Great news on FSD. That will be the slingshot that will shock the market

 

[AZRI11]

Priority on delivering performance Model Y this quarter
https://twitter.com/sejongkimesq/status/1271150194692952067?s=19

 

[MC3OZ]

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1271237694509780992

Coming soon to a Tesla near you: Speed limit recognition worldwide (with 3d rendered signs) and roundabout support.

 

[ggr]

This assumes Tesla WANTS to be in S&P 500 ASAP; is there any reason for them to want to wait to another quarter? Perhaps to coincide with an even better 3rd or 4th quarter report for one even more dramatic boost, or to keep handy to boost the SP out in a recession situation or something?

No. Sooner is betterer.