Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AZRI11]

Cool video. High School senior project documentary. Westport Connecticut Police department Model 3 is especially interesting.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I was checking this out... Nice!
But...
What caught my attention (as I pretend ordered a Model Y for the 5th time) was the FSD missing verbiage from the past. Basically it claims everything my M3 does today. No reverse summons, no turns in city...
Here is the exact wording

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.
Coming later this year:
Autosteer on city streets.

It does all of this today.

Meanwhile, I was on some curvy roads in Sedona, and it continues to have issues with these, even with all road makings present center and shoulder. This is indicating system limitations and I no longer have full confidence that it will do left truns at intersections wo some hardware changes. Not to say that cant happen, and Im not suggesting Lidar at all. Perhaps higher resolution side cameras, IDK.

Hence, there are now zero promises of tech coming soon other than auto steer on city streets... which it does already technically.
Anyone who knows me gets that I dont say this lightly.

Sorry for the off topics here, but is Tesla getting honest with FSD? Didnt they promise even more in the past?

Interesting. I wonder if that means they can recognise all the FSD revenue for new sales up front in their P&L. At first glance it would make sense if they are not required to perform any more than they are already doing.

 

[hobbes]

If anything, it actively gets used as FUD, even if that's not Troys intention.

FUD will be spread no matter if Troy posts his estimates or not. It is the way of life that estimates get better as you gather more information.

The main issue is the data he relies on is less and less relavent as Tesla goes more mainstream. The user inputs to his data contain less and less of the percentage of actual people buying Tesla's every quarter. He tries to extrapolate but it doesn't change the fact that as Tesla ramps deliveries, his method becomes less and less reliable. When Tesla starts producing 150k a quarter and then 200k a quarter, his user input will be even less relevant.

His sheets are not the only input to the estimates.

Its just time to end it.

Why don´t you just ignore it if it´s not good enough for you and leave it to everyone else to decide for themselves?

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I was checking this out... Nice!
But...
What caught my attention (as I pretend ordered a Model Y for the 5th time) was the FSD missing verbiage from the past. Basically it claims everything my M3 does today. No reverse summons, no turns in city...
Here is the exact wording

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.
Coming later this year:
Autosteer on city streets.

It does all of this today.

Meanwhile, I was on some curvy roads in Sedona, and it continues to have issues with these, even with all road makings present center and shoulder. This is indicating system limitations and I no longer have full confidence that it will do left truns at intersections wo some hardware changes. Not to say that cant happen, and Im not suggesting Lidar at all. Perhaps higher resolution side cameras, IDK.

Hence, there are now zero promises of tech coming soon other than auto steer on city streets... which it does already technically.
Anyone who knows me gets that I dont say this lightly.

Sorry for the off topics here, but is Tesla getting honest with FSD? Didnt they promise even more in the past?

My understanding is that Autosteer on city streets will include turns at intersections and that is not available today. I am also hoping it will include roundabouts as we have lots here in the UK.

 

[charlesgres]

Yes, I think that's the assumption, and yes, I think it is also correct.

But I think there's another aspect to the whole "max pain" theory. Most of the market makers use "delta hedging", so the relative effects of selling options are roughly equivalent to the relative effects of buying/shorting stock, for them. So they actually have relatively little reason to futz with the stock price. But there are other forces out there, who are big players but not the market makers, and who might not have been hedged in that way. Say one of them had written a lot of $1005 calls yesterday. They have a big incentive to keep the price down. Anyway, that's just my theory, that we can't assume that all the big players and market makers all have the same goal.

Yeah, but doesn't that mean that you can't really know where the real attractor SP is unless you know who the manipulators are and how much they have at stake? Which is kind of impossible to know..

In other words, sites like opricot may very well show the max-pain point, but that's not necessarily where the counteracting forces move the price to.. So pretty worthless in the end..

 

[charlesgres]

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Hey, no broken glass!

 

[MABMAB]

During Steve Jurvetson’s —GRIN speech — he recommends the following books:

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

The Rational Optimist: a 2010 Popular Science book by Matt Ridley. The book primarily focuses on the benefits of the innate human tendency to trade goods and services. Ridley argues that this trait is the source of human prosperity, and that as people increasingly specialize in their skillsets, we will have increased trade and even more prosperity.

What Technology Wants: a 2010 nonfiction book by Kevin Kelly focused on technology as an extension of life.

The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. I’m Leading scientific theorist W. Brian Arthur puts forth the first complete theory of the origins and evolution of technology, in a major work that achieves for the invention of new technologies what Darwin’s theory achieved for the emergence of new species.

Mr. Jurvetson, led me into reading that has defined my interests over the past decade of my life. His instincts are profound, much of what he spoke to; Genetics, Robotics, Information Technology, and Nanotechnology has emerged into new and developing technologies altering the course of mankind. He is a true visionary.

Is this speech on the net? Care to share?

 

[Tslynk67]

Tagging @Lycanthrope

Cheers!

 

[FastCompany]

EOQ push followed by less time crunch in the next quarter.

Received this email from Tesla Vancouver this morning:

• Why should I place the deposits now?
  
  The Deposits are fully refundable anytime until you take delivery of your car. The deposits lock into current price before the price goes up. Also, will honor the lower price if the price goes down before your delivery.
  REBATES - We only have about 3.5 million left on the government rebates. Please noted we will only apply for your rebates on your delivery date, CEV rebates program ends until BC government funds are exhausted. Most likely, the rebates only last until our next September delivery.

By placing the deposits online now with your email, you will secure the lowest financing rates (2.9% - 3.3%) we’ve ever had at TESLA! You will also receive one year free supercharging (Model 3 only) by taking your JUNE delivery. Please kindly Let me know if you want to connect on a call to discuss in more detail, or, if you’d like to crunch some numbers to see what monthly payments could look like when financing with these incredible rates!

 

[Khamul]

Some interesting Sunday reading: Ex Audi manager Peter Mertens: “we have been asleep (…) it is getting bloody!” - German article about German auto industry and Tesla, translation in comments

Fairly Modfather: link to English version by @avoigt: There Will Be Blood — Peter Mertens, Former Head of Audi R&D: "We All Did Sleep" | CleanTechnica

 

[kbM3]

Some interesting Sunday reading: Ex Audi manager Peter Mertens: “we have been asleep (…) it is getting bloody!” - German article about German auto industry and Tesla, translation in comments

This article might be the best ever at explaining Tesla’s technology lead.

 

[ZachF]

Some sunday silliness:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some interesting Sunday reading: Ex Audi manager Peter Mertens: “we have been asleep (…) it is getting bloody!” - German article about German auto industry and Tesla, translation in comments

Original article by our own @avoigt (Jun 13, 2020)

There Will Be Blood — Peter Mertens, Former Head of Audi R&D: "We All Did Sleep" | CleanTechnica

Youtube channel video for article: (29:52)

Cheers!

P.S. Alex, nice video thumbnail. When were you on the Big Island? That's Puna, right

 

[defc0n]

I see on Twitter that Jack has sadly been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer. I didn’t watch the full video so may have missed that. Sad news, wish him a full recovery.

****. He’s one of my favorite human beings on this planet.

 

[Chenkers]

Thanks for that. There are at least two areas in that video that I just noticed have what appear to be foundations for large format aluminum diecasting.

So perhaps four or five large format diecasting areas (at 2:15, 2:40, 2:52, 4:13, and 6:24)? Unless I am mistaken and some of these are foundations for other purposes.

I have numbered the foundations in the attached image.

Just watched full video so sorry for the late comment.
The large building you have labelled as 3 appears to be a thermal energy centre to match the one operating at the opposite corner of the site. You can see them starting to install cooling towers and header pipes on the roof and this building will likely house chillers, pumps, generators etc with cooling water and other services reticulated along the adjacent gantry to each building. The foundations at 2 and 4 don't appear connected to any manufacturing processes so may just be some form of sump or waste pit. 1 is very likely to be a diecasting press being next to stamping and 5 is hard to tell until they build around it.

 

[Knightshade]

What caught my attention (as I pretend ordered a Model Y for the 5th time) was the FSD missing verbiage from the past. Basically it claims everything my M3 does today. No reverse summons, no turns in city...
Here is the exact wording

Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.
Coming later this year:
Autosteer on city streets.

It does all of this today.

That wording changed a couple months ago... but the only real change was "autosteer on city streets" when it used to say "automatic driving on city streets"

Elon has already said autosteer on city streets includes turns though- so your car does NOT do that today.

Reverse summon was never listed in the "listed features" version of FSD.


The HUGE change in FSD promise was Feb/March 2019, where they went from promising (at least) Level 4 self driving, to the specific-features list with no promise any of it would ever be better than L2.

Attached is the change from April 2020, new version on left, old version on right-

And now here's the pre-march-2019 MUCH broader version of FSD they stopped selling after Feb-2019.

 

[Unpilot]

The Rational Optimist: a 2010 Popular Science book by Matt Ridley. The book primarily focuses on the benefits of the innate human tendency to trade goods and services. Ridley argues that this trait is the source of human prosperity, and that as people increasingly specialize in their skillsets, we will have increased trade and even more prosperity.

Good read recommend that one.
Thanks for the others I will check them out.

 

[MABMAB]

ICE failed this strategy
Follow the Follower: A Lesson in Strategy from Sailboat Racing – Effectiviology

 

[Khamul]

Original article by our own @avoigt (Jun 13, 2020)

There Will Be Blood — Peter Mertens, Former Head of Audi R&D: "We All Did Sleep" | CleanTechnica

Youtube channel video for article: (29:52)

Cheers!

P.S. Alex, nice video thumbnail. When were you on the Big Island? That's Puna, right

:/ Sorry Alex. I wish I could edit my post with a link to Alex' article instead, but it's too late.

Mod: done.

 

[SOULPEDL]

My understanding is that Autosteer on city streets will include turns at intersections and that is not available today. I am also hoping it will include roundabouts as we have lots here in the UK.

I think ur fine with most roudabouts bc he mentioned this recently as in-progress. The autosteer covers Tesla legally IMO... in case it cannot do left turns at all or well.