There are reflections, but a couple of small places near edges. Fit and finish stuff. Smudges on the hood, as well. Agree - it’s a truck and a prototype - not perfect, adds interest and character. I like it!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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There are reflections, but a couple of small places near edges. Fit and finish stuff. Smudges on the hood, as well. Agree - it’s a truck and a prototype - not perfect, adds interest and character. I like it!
Mike Smith
Active Member
Which is why Troy shouldn't even bother putting out estimates until around this time of every quarter. He does this every quarter. Starts out low on his estimates based on incompete data and then constantly revises
Just admit that your user survey doesn't work for the first 2 and a half months of each quarter
I don't know, it makes sense to me to revise your estimate for the quarter as new data comes in. I don't think he claims to have much confidence in the early estimates.
lafrisbee
Active Member
The NWS prediction of hurricanes for the season predictions are similarly timed. It is amazing how close they have been in their prediction.... at the end of the season!Which is why Troy shouldn't even bother putting out estimates until around this time of every quarter. He does this every quarter. Starts out low on his estimates based on incompete data and then constantly revises
Just admit that your user survey doesn't work for the first 2 and a half months of each quarter
Doesn't matter. If you're data is that incomplete and unreliable, there is no point posting it. If anything, it actively gets used as FUD, even if that's not Troys intention.
It's not like its small adjustments. His usual early estimates are way off from his end of quarter estimate.
The main issue is the data he relies on is less and less relavent as Tesla goes more mainstream. The user inputs to his data contain less and less of the percentage of actual people buying Tesla's every quarter. He tries to extrapolate but it doesn't change the fact that as Tesla ramps deliveries, his method becomes less and less reliable. When Tesla starts producing 150k a quarter and then 200k a quarter, his user input will be even less relevant.
Its just time to end it.
Come on, give them a break. We know that they hit it with a sledgehammer every morning for practice!
Calling it now. Elon will send up a cyber truck aiming for mars during the star ship payload demo. He will then stream back some videos of mars using the cybertrucks autopilot cameras to prove its durability.
To save time, beginning around 13th minute he gives his "epiphany" theory; battery day delay is so Elon can announce that the new hi-spec battery is already in the current cars, thus avoiding any Osbourne effect. I think TMC members figured that out long ago
I see on Twitter that Jack has sadly been diagnosed with an aggressive cancer. I didn’t watch the full video so may have missed that. Sad news, wish him a full recovery.
During Steve Jurvetson’s —GRIN speech — he recommends the following books:
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by the essayist, scholar and statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
The Rational Optimist: a 2010 Popular Science book by Matt Ridley. The book primarily focuses on the benefits of the innate human tendency to trade goods and services. Ridley argues that this trait is the source of human prosperity, and that as people increasingly specialize in their skillsets, we will have increased trade and even more prosperity.
What Technology Wants: a 2010 nonfiction book by Kevin Kelly focused on technology as an extension of life.
The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves. I’m Leading scientific theorist W. Brian Arthur puts forth the first complete theory of the origins and evolution of technology, in a major work that achieves for the invention of new technologies what Darwin’s theory achieved for the emergence of new species.
Mr. Jurvetson, led me into reading that has defined my interests over the past decade of my life. His instincts are profound, much of what he spoke to; Genetics, Robotics, Information Technology, and Nanotechnology has emerged into new and developing technologies altering the course of mankind. He is a true visionary.
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The latest free Tesla advertising on Joe Rogan’s podcast. Released yesterday and has 1 million views. At 33:45
There's a campaign on reddit right now trying to get Elon to give Jack early information about battery day because the cancer is terminal and his time is very limited.
I'm waiting for Tesla's "best product ever" (Cybertruck, according to Elon), but man, the Y looks badass in black.
https://twitter.com/aikatchu/status/1274159775324889088
https://twitter.com/aikatchu/status/1274159775324889088
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I was checking this out... Nice!
But...
What caught my attention (as I pretend ordered a Model Y for the 5th time) was the FSD missing verbiage from the past. Basically it claims everything my M3 does today. No reverse summons, no turns in city...
Here is the exact wording
Full Self-Driving Capability
Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Auto Lane Change: automatic lane changes while driving on the highway.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.
Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control: assisted stops at traffic controlled intersections.
Coming later this year:
Autosteer on city streets.
It does all of this today.
Meanwhile, I was on some curvy roads in Sedona, and it continues to have issues with these, even with all road makings present center and shoulder. This is indicating system limitations and I no longer have full confidence that it will do left truns at intersections wo some hardware changes. Not to say that cant happen, and Im not suggesting Lidar at all. Perhaps higher resolution side cameras, IDK.
Hence, there are now zero promises of tech coming soon other than auto steer on city streets... which it does already technically.
Anyone who knows me gets that I dont say this lightly.
Sorry for the off topics here, but is Tesla getting honest with FSD? Didnt they promise even more in the past?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Mebbe. Chemistry changes alone can extend current pack designs to 1M+ mile service lives. But other wiz-bang news like big cost reductions will depend on the new pack architecture, which we know for certain has NOT happened yet.To save time, beginning around 13th minute he gives his "epiphany" theory; battery day delay is so Elon can announce that the new hi-spec battery is already in the current cars, thus avoiding any Osbourne effect. I think TMC members figured that out long ago
So its likely there will be an incremental rollout of new features over the next 2 years. Just like always with Tesla EV tech.
Cheers!
Mebbe. Chemistry changes alone can extend current pack designs to 1M+ mile service lives. But other wiz-bang news like big cost reductions will depend on the new pack architecture, which we know for certain has NOT happened yet.
So its likely there will be an incremental rollout of new features over the next 2 years. Just like always with Tesla EV tech.
Cheers!
I was looking at ordering a model X in BC, Canada last week. Website said delivery time would be 1-2 weeks. I delayed ordering and was going to do it for fathers day. I just checked again and now it says estimated delivery is 8-12 weeks. Wonder why it changed so much? End of quarter change in production, or a shift to different battery chem?
EOQ push followed by less time crunch in the next quarter.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
There were smudges on the hood? That's it! I'm cancelling both my orders! /s
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla likely just sold out its stock from the latest batch of deliveries, and the next batch isn't until end of Q3. Are you in the Lower Mainland? That's a really hot market.
If you really do want a Model X before the end of June, and are prepared to travel a bit to pick it up, I'd contact Tesla directly to see if your desired configuration is available elsewhere (for example, Calgary). In fact, with the new v3 Supercharger network connecting the entire Trans-Canada Highway, I see an epic road trip in the making...
Cheers, and good luck with your new X!
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