Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SO16]

Not giving him the click. What garbage does he spew at the end this time?

“My understanding is that Tesla has been able to ramp up Model Y production in the last few weeks, though again, I would be happier with Tesla slowing down production and focusing on quality, which has been an issue with the new electric SUV.”

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

“My understanding is that Tesla has been able to ramp up Model Y production in the last few weeks, though again, I would be happier with Tesla slowing down production and focusing on quality, which has been an issue with the new electric SUV.”

Yup

So.....unnecessary....

 

[Off Shore]

I'm surprised not more people are talking about the ford tweet that elon replied to:
https://twitter.com/Ford/status/1275820983299870722



From business green (Ford revs up 2050 carbon neutrality target)


Is that really it? 1 EV model this year, (maybe) and 2 more electric models by 2022. So that means in 2022, Ford will have 3 EVs, and Tesla will have the S,X,3,Y and likely the roadster and the semi, and probably the cybertruck.
Thats really just surrender isn't it? just admitting that they are screwed and cannot even pretend to catch up. When is Ford offering a competitor to the 3 or Y? apparently not even planned until beyond 2023. How many 3's and Y's on the roads by then? how can they possibly compete? Especially if the S,3,X,Y cars all have virtually flawless FSD by then...

I honestly cannot understand how Fords stock price is not zero right now.

It's S,3,X,Y,C,A,R,S, with the whole lineup. Isn't Ford still paying dividends? That might explain it.
somewhat /s

 

[SO16]

It's S,3,X,Y,C,A,R,S, with the whole lineup. Isn't Ford still paying dividends? That might explain it.
somewhat /s

Ford suspended dividends.

Ford suspends dividend, withdraws 2020 guidance due to coronavirus

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Jun 25, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Classic Bounce off Mid-BB with Recovery to Max Pain"

Traded: $8,967,431,358.37 ($7.97 B)
Volume: 9,364,483
VWAP: $957.60

Closing SP / VWAP: 103.04%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = 182.875B / 181.266B = 100.89%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 59.0% (54th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 51.6% (52nd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.07% of Short Volume (50th Percentile rank)​

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[The Martian]

I have a question for everyone who cares to offer an opinion:

What Q2 delivery number does Tesla need to post to maintain $1,000 for TSLA? I think most of us understand this will be higher than the 70-75K analysts are currently predicting.

Follow-up: What is your number and how will TSLA react to it?

I think 80K to maintain $1000. My number is 90K and could send TSLA to $1100.

 

[mongo]

“My understanding is that Tesla has been able to ramp up Model Y production in the last few weeks, though again, I would be happier with Tesla slowing down production and focusing on quality, which has been an issue with the new electric SUV.”

False dilemma - Wikipedia

Hey @Artful Dodger, you keep me on my toes, no way I'd block you.

 

[Mo City]

Think about what we've been through the last 3 months then read the post below.

Your opinion was a good decision to act on. I wasn't able to time my buy at $940 as I originally wanted to, but I picked up some additional shares at $948. Thanks for the useful information!

A missed buying opportunity at $940 before closing at $986 ($992 AH).

SMH. What a company. What an investment.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Well. Um. I sort of already threw that 95k number out as my final answer a couple weeks? ago and I showed my math.

Yes, I later revised my final answer to 83k because ‘for posterity’.

No worries. I don’t take anything personal from unknown soldiers.

If you're actually right, we'll both be celebrating. That's an outcome I'm perfectly fine with.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Also I genuinely believe that Tesla lowered the 3, S, and X prices not because there was not enough demand based on a "limited production ramp from Fremont being closed" but because they quickly got Fremont back up to full production. So while I wouldn't bet on it, I don't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility that we see production in the area of 95-100k with 92-95k deliveries. Maybe even in the 97-98k range if Model Y ramped well.

I wouldn't be making any short term bets on this hunch thought haha.

While my most optimistic scenario of 97-98k is still probably too optimistic, I'm feeling fairly confident in my prediction of 92-95k.

I'm very curious to see how close I get

 

[UncaNed]

Few ideas of individual action:

• if you feel like it, engage in social media, fight FUD, but also simply join discussions with friends or groups and teach them something about Tesla.
  
• talk with friends, acquaintances, colleagues.
• make them drive your car!
• do some Uber/Lyft sometimes, just for strangers to try a Tesla
• lead by example with an electric car powered by solar panels.

I'm sure you already do some of these.

As longs, we surely could be better coordinated, for example, with a website that hosts important data, essays, charts and anti-FUD bullet points. A repo of documentation.

And help your friends set up trading accounts. More investors buying TSLA raises the SP for all of us.

 

[AlMc]

I hope all the 90+K guesses for Q2 deliveries are correct. I worry a bit about setting too high expectations. usually the anti Tesla forces do that then claim a 'miss' when Tesla does not make 'their number'.

I will stick by 86-88K and be happy with that number.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I hope all the 90+K guesses for Q2 deliveries are correct. I worry a bit about setting too high expectations. usually the anti Tesla forces do that then claim a 'miss' when Tesla does not make 'their number'.

I will stick by 86-88K and be happy with that number.

The great thing is that even your scenario of 86-88k would give Tesla a very good shot at profitability

 

[qphan79]

I hope all the 90+K guesses for Q2 deliveries are correct. I worry a bit about setting too high expectations. usually the anti Tesla forces do that then claim a 'miss' when Tesla does not make 'their number'.

I will stick by 86-88K and be happy with that number.

How in the world did we go from expectations of 50k car deliveries and a $2 billion loss for Q2 to possibly being profitable?? Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that we weren’t even sure if Fremont was going to be allowed to open? If 90k+ actually happens....

 

[StealthP3D]

Not to mention beating your motors to death. I thought it was a joke... not.

There is nothing about a hub motor that is inherently not up the shocks that could be encountered. They just need bearings of a higher capacity.

The unsprung weight issue is not ideal for high-performance driving on irregular surfaces but for normal driving or rock-crawling off-road it's not a deal-breaker. It does reduce part count and points of failure and can also make the vehicle easier to build, reducing costs, depending upon the specifics of implementation.

I suspect they will fail for other reasons. Or get bought out by one of the big OEM's for pennies on the dollar.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

My guess.....89,945. My radar never fails....well.......sometimes.

 

[HG Wells]

I have no idea where or even when my island is. All I know is that every now and then mysterious palettes of food appear.

Is it the good stuff or just 5 year old MRE's ?

 

[Jack6591]

And help your friends set up trading accounts. More investors buying TSLA raises the SP for all of us.

Interestingly, I work with a group of utility inspectors and engineers. At every opportunity, I discuss the range improvements Tesla has demonstrated year, after year, after year. Emphasizing historical battery improvements, makes it is easy to segue into future projections. I finish with Maxwell Technologies “Dry Battery Electrode” process, the 500 mile range of the Cybertruck, and an invitation to drive my car and experience Autopilot.

I do all that I can on an individual basis. Unfortunately, my DNA is missing the “patience” gene.

I like my gratification immediately.

 

[EinSV]

I hope all the 90+K guesses for Q2 deliveries are correct. I worry a bit about setting too high expectations. usually the anti Tesla forces do that then claim a 'miss' when Tesla does not make 'their number'.

I will stick by 86-88K and be happy with that number.

I think it has been very helpful going into the past few quarters with expectations low.

70-75K deliveries is the analyst consensus? I can live with that.

 

[Krugerrand]

How in the world did we go from expectations of 50k car deliveries and a $2 billion loss for Q2 to possibly being profitable?? Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that we weren’t even sure if Fremont was going to be allowed to open? If 90k+ actually happens....

The ONLY person who said 50k, in fact said they would NOT hit 50k was Mark Speigel.

I did very simple math to show how 50k was an easy beat. At that point we had China April and May deliveries along with knowing how many cars were in inventory/transit at end of Q1. You have to literally be stupid to believe Tesla wouldn’t beat 50k in Q2.

Fremont has been open for 6+ weeks. Model Y vins are as high as 21xxx. They didn’t sell that many Y’s in Q1. How many ships headed to Europe?

It’s easy math. No calculus required.