Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

The ONLY person who said 50k, in fact said they would NOT hit 50k was Mark Speigel.

I did very simple math to show how 50k was an easy beat. At that point we had China April and May deliveries along with knowing how many cars were in inventory/transit at end of Q1. You have to literally be stupid to believe Tesla wouldn’t beat 50k in Q2.

You are replying to qphan? Is that code for Tslaq fan?

 

[StealthP3D]

I have a question for everyone who cares to offer an opinion:

What Q2 delivery number does Tesla need to post to maintain $1,000 for TSLA? I think most of us understand this will be higher than the 70-75K analysts are currently predicting.

Follow-up: What is your number and how will TSLA react to it?

Delivery numbers are only a small sliver of the pie that determines Tesla's valuation. It would be like asking how fast does Valentino Rossi need to hit on the back straight to lap in under 3 minutes.

 

[printf42]

How in the world did we go from expectations of 50k car deliveries and a $2 billion loss for Q2 to possibly being profitable??

Have exactly the same thought, let’s stick with this number for now, can we please?

 

[StealthP3D]

I disagree. Q2 2020 is different because of the possibility of S&P inclusion. If the numbers are in the 88-92K range I think we can be GAAP profitable, all we need is to show a 1$ profit.

Due to a whole host of accounting details, the range of cars required to hit $1 of profitability is a HUGE range. TSLA could be GAAP profitable at 50,000 cars or GAAP loss at 100,000 cars.

 

[jhm]

Is it the good stuff or just 5 year old MRE's ?

Dharma food is the best.

 

[traxila]

“My understanding is that Tesla has been able to ramp up Model Y production in the last few weeks, though again, I would be happier with Tesla slowing down production and focusing on quality, which has been an issue with the new electric SUV.”

I picked mine up on Tuesday.

Looks great, rides great.

Probably sold out for the next three years.

Fred can kiss my ass.

 

[qphan79]

The ONLY person who said 50k, in fact said they would NOT hit 50k was Mark Speigel.

I did very simple math to show how 50k was an easy beat. At that point we had China April and May deliveries along with knowing how many cars were in inventory/transit at end of Q1. You have to literally be stupid to believe Tesla wouldn’t beat 50k in Q2.

Fremont has been open for 6+ weeks. Model Y vins are as high as 21xxx. They didn’t sell that many Y’s in Q1. How many ships headed to Europe?

It’s easy math. No calculus required.

sorry I was just being rhetorical! Was referring to the times of great despair many had way back all of 2 months ago when the market crashed and things were much more uncertain. 50k was considered a generous estimate back then!

 

[traxila]

sorry I was just being rhetorical! Was referring to the times of great despair many had way back all of 2 months ago when the market crashed and things were much more uncertain. 50k was considered a generous estimate back then!

I bought more. Just not enough.

 

[qphan79]

I picked mine up on Tuesday.

Looks great, rides great.

Probably sold out for the next three years.

Fred can kiss my ass.

I had a deposit for a long Range rwd Model Y, standard paint and options, and was fine with waiting since I really didn’t need AWD. However I cancelled it yesterday....and submitted a new order for a blue AWD, Induction wheels, and FSD! Was hoping to spend less so i can continue to put more money into TSLA, but life is too short and i figure it’s just taking an advance out of my future gains (not selling any shares yet!). I also never thought I would spring for FSD but my wife just got into a minor car collision two days ago. I started thinking that FSD will be not just safer for my family, but for everything else we share the road with. FSD uptake rates will being going up as it gets better, I’m convinced of it now!

 

[lafrisbee]

I have a question for everyone who cares to offer an opinion:

What Q2 delivery number does Tesla need to post to maintain $1,000 for TSLA? I think most of us understand this will be higher than the 70-75K analysts are currently predicting.

Follow-up: What is your number and how will TSLA react to it?

my "number is about 80k. And still it gets us onto the S&P. Why? During the close-down Tesla wasn't paying for labor. And we had a high inventory at the end of Q1, so those vehicles will slide over to the plus column in terms of big time profit.
(look "inventory" and "profit" are as strong a technical term(s) as I know, but you know what I mean.)

 

[StealthP3D]

Ford suspended dividends.

Ford suspends dividend, withdraws 2020 guidance due to coronavirus

Ford suspended dividends?

That raises the question: How is Anton Wahlman going to buy groceries?

 

[lafrisbee]

I had a deposit for a long Range rwd Model Y, standard paint and options, and was fine with waiting since I really didn’t need AWD. However I cancelled it yesterday....and submitted a new order for a blue AWD, Induction wheels, and FSD! Was hoping to spend less so i can continue to put more money into TSLA, but life is too short and i figure it’s just taking an advance out of my future gains (not selling any shares yet!). I also never thought I would spring for FSD but my wife just got into a minor car collision two days ago. I started thinking that FSD will be not just safer for my family, but for everything else we share the road with. FSD uptake rates will being going up as it gets better, I’m convinced of it now!

Yeah and consider the finances of FED... first car insurance for "her" would not be going up. But the second financial concern will be asked in this manner, " Misses qphan, did you have the FSD engaged so it would protect our client from the 2 tons of metal that ran over her?"

 

[Singuy]

While my most optimistic scenario of 97-98k is still probably too optimistic, I'm feeling fairly confident in my prediction of 92-95k.

I'm very curious to see how close I get

I am predicting record gaap profit just to tell short sellers to go f themselves. Perfect quarter to do it and it'll be epic. Elon is not aiming for a dollar, but the most profit Tesla has ever made.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I am predicting record gaap profit just to tell short sellers to go f themselves. Perfect quarter to do it and it'll be epic. Elon is not aiming for a dollar, but the most profit Tesla has ever made.

Haha and I thought I had ballsy estimates/predictions

 

[StealthP3D]

While my most optimistic scenario of 97-98k is still probably too optimistic, I'm feeling fairly confident in my prediction of 92-95k.

I'm very curious to see how close I get

Do you have a third prediction of 84K-92K? If so, I don't see how we could help but be totally amazed at your accuracy!

 

[MC3OZ]

my "number is about 80k. And still it gets us onto the S&P. Why? During the close-down Tesla wasn't paying for labor. And we had a high inventory at the end of Q1, so those vehicles will slide over to the plus column in terms of big time profit.
(look "inventory" and "profit" are as strong a technical term(s) as I know, but you know what I mean.)

I always expected to end Q2 with low levels of inventory..

Seems to me production is giving priority to Model Y, and most Model Ys produced in Q2 will also be delivered.

All the FSD demand levers add to a chance of Q2 profit...

Overall Q2 2020 is fairly unique, we don't have a similar quarter in the past that I can think of, but in some ways it is a similar to a Q4.

 

[capster]

I'm surprised not more people are talking about the ford tweet that elon replied to:
https://twitter.com/Ford/status/1275820983299870722



From business green (Ford revs up 2050 carbon neutrality target)


Is that really it? 1 EV model this year, (maybe) and 2 more electric models by 2022. So that means in 2022, Ford will have 3 EVs, and Tesla will have the S,X,3,Y and likely the roadster and the semi, and probably the cybertruck.
Thats really just surrender isn't it? just admitting that they are screwed and cannot even pretend to catch up. When is Ford offering a competitor to the 3 or Y? apparently not even planned until beyond 2023. How many 3's and Y's on the roads by then? how can they possibly compete? Especially if the S,3,X,Y cars all have virtually flawless FSD by then...

I honestly cannot understand how Fords stock price is not zero right now.

Why be surprised? What’s new? The way I read it, Ford is pretending that they’re going to pretend to try to catch up.

In a couple years, they’ll reissue this or another press release after changing the text to alter the dates and the dollars.

Yes, they’ll still be around ( there’s always another chapter for legacy auto OEM’s ). It’s not that they’re dead and people don’t realize it yet — it’s that they’re undead and will be around eating brains and public funds until the proverbial stake is delivered.

 

[Singuy]

Haha and I thought I had ballsy estimates/predictions

Q1 showed us what massive amount of EV credits can do. This q we have a higher quality of higher asp Y in the mix, higher margin MIC 3s in the mix, FSD upgrade push, and FSD revenue realized. Add this to a possible higher delivery numbers and we may see Elon pulling this bunny out of the hat.

 

[ZeApelido]

Elon Musk Is Happy: Tesla Places Two Cars on New “Most American” List

Only half of consumers surveyed by the site know that Tesla is American

Ridiculous! Everyone knows Tesla is an Italian car.

 

[ZeApelido]

You have to literally be stupid to believe Tesla wouldn’t beat 50k in Q2.