Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

"SiILion’s first generation prototype technology is under evaluation or requested for evaluation by numerous lithium-ion manufacturers and end-users active in its target markets"

I'm not the best reader but this makes me skeptical they're locked in with Tesla

As I mentioned, this article was written before SilLion 'went dark'. The article, published on Aug 17, 2017, has garnered more attention recently due to the obvious overlap with Telsa's requirements and capabilities.

Additionally, there was much speculation early this year about a possible merger or aquistion by Tesla, as well as numerous battery related technical information leaking from sources in Colorado

Battery Breakthrough Company Feature: SiILion Colorado Cleantech Industries Assoc | 9 Jan 20

Tesla may have quietly acquired a new lithium-ion battery cell startup in CO | 14 Feb 20

So, if SilLion runs the same course as Grohmann Automation, they will drop their existing clients after an aquisition and turn their full attention to Tesla's internal requirements.

Cheers!

 

[FrankSG]

oh wow, just got a text setting up tentative delivery for this Monday afternoon June 29! The end of quarter delivery push is for real!! Though I work Monday evening so I will have to push it to Tuesday morning. Vin number is 22000+. Per TroyTeslike twitter, he’s estimating up to 50% uptake of FSD...the margins this quarter are gonna be amazing!

This is true and great news, but don't forget the price cuts will slightly weigh on margins. Also remains to be seen how many credits Tesla will be able to account for in this quarter in which Europe volume is likely much lower.

 

[FrankSG]

While this may be lovely, I don’t see evidence that it justifies the use of ‘semis’ plural. They did this before for show with one prototype, and I had the same hope you stated above back then too.

Maybe battery day will change that but so far I don’t think this is significant, unfortunately.

I've never seen a red semi before though? I think the ones from the 2017 unveiling were silver and dark grey?

 

[AlMc]

After upgrading to FSD from EAP last night, I put a request for service to get HW3. The service center told me it is at least 10-15 busines days before they receive the part. That is bullish IMO.

Also, realize that the Service Centers and mobile techs (who are being pulled in to help) are very busy for the next few days prepping delivery cars for end of Q, then will be very busy with any 'punch list' items of those new deliveries. So, upgrades may be pushed to the back burner.

 

[AlMc]

I've never seen a red semi before though? I think the ones from the 2017 unveiling were silver and dark grey?

OK, it kills me to have to post a link from Electrek: New red Tesla Semi electric truck prototype spotted in the wild - Electrek.......

if you prefer not to click it....Tesla Semi 'Red' spotted in the wild 12/2018

 

[Chunky Jr.]

In terms of Tesla performance vs other automakers, i think people buy ICE cars because they need them, people buy a Tesla because they want them. Seems easier to postpone a buying decision when you need something (practical) vs when you want something (emotional)

 

[FrankSG]

OK, it kills me to have to post a link from Electrek: New red Tesla Semi electric truck prototype spotted in the wild - Electrek.......

if you prefer not to click it....Tesla Semi 'Red' spotted in the wild 12/2018

Ah, I missed that. Thanks for letting me know.

And don't worry, I didn't click the link

 

[FrankSG]

Seems easier to postpone a buying decision when you need something (practical) vs when you want something (emotional)

Hmmm, not sure about this. I'd say it's the opposite.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

OK, it kills me to have to post a link from Electrek: New red Tesla Semi electric truck prototype spotted in the wild - Electrek.......

if you prefer not to click it....Tesla Semi 'Red' spotted in the wild 12/2018

Wasn't the red one believed to be one of the first two repainted?

 

[Silentk]

Good cost comparison on Nikola and Tesla....

Great video, thanks.

 

[Highway2Heel]

At $100,000+, it’s a want and out of the reach of many but Tesla’s are much more affordable now (as part of the master plan in EM’s trilogy). Folks ‘need’ a vehicle and Tesla fills that need better than any ICE vehicle (imo).

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Yeah, that wasn't even MMs supporting the SP. The bottom came at 15:37 hrs when TSLA touched the Middle Bollinger Band (Mid-BB). Here's the Candlestick Chart from 16:00 ET:

View attachment 557012

TSLA bounced $8 in 2 minutes confirming support at the Mid-BB and did not revisit that level again today.

Best circumstance for TSLA right now is the Mid-BB is showing a long uptrend right now, and we can ride it up. The 'channel' itself is rising. That's real progress...

Obvious play for shortzes and tricksters this weekend will be to try to FUD the SP into a Monday Opening below and out of reach of the Mid-BB thus 'hop-scotching' that support level.

IMHO, this won't work since there's too much immediate good news on the near horizon, with End-of-Qtr buying interest on Tue and anticipation of the P&D Report on Thu.

Cheers!

What's a P&D report? I googled and they didn't know either. I am just not as smart as you acronym guys. I know what a P&L report is. That makes me feel a little smarter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

but don't forget the price cuts will slightly weigh on margins

Doubtful. The new battery contract signed with Panasonic set pricing retroactive to the beginning of Q2 2020. It's most likely that Tesla split the cost savings with the customer (that'd be the $2K price cut for Model 3) and added some to gross margins.

This is the historic way Tesla has conducted rounds of price cuts. Look at how the SR+ varient was rolled out. Greater production volume allows Tesla to reduce the retail price. Net net, Tesla's ASP did not go down, and gross margins improved on higher volume due to spreading fixed costs over more units. That right there allows the lower retail price.

Cheers!

 

[SO16]

What's a P&D report? I googled and they didn't know either. I am just not as smart as you acronym guys. I know what a P&L report is. That makes me feel a little smarter.

Production and Delivery

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Hmmm, not sure about this. I'd say it's the opposite.

My reasoning is that if I need a new car, but don't really want one, I'll figure out a way to stretch out that purchase as long as possible. If I really want something, I'll buy it sooner.

There are also varying levels of "need". There is "my car is busted and I need a new one now", and also "my car is on its last legs and I need a new one ASAP". I'm thinking of the latter as being more common.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Yes, and the 100K estimate for GF3 in 2020H2 further presumes MiC Model 3 production proceeds at 4K/wk until end of year.

I think this is a reasonable assumption, as Tesla China has made numerous statement that the intent is to localize the supply chain (ie: 100% MiC) by the end of 2020.

This will mean the now under construction buildings at GF3 must be complete and operational by EOY. This is very 'doable' as we witness continued rapid progress of GF3 Phase 2 building construction.

I also noticed in the latest WuWa 'walkabout' video that concurrently there is another parts supply factory being built to the West of the GF3/Shanghai property.

So it's all coming together like some Mister Burns masterplan...

Cheers!

I was reading that the Berlin factory will be built faster the GF3.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wasn't the red one believed to be one of the first two repainted?

yes. specifically the black semi, with a red 'wrap'.

 

[EVortex]

Wasn't the red one believed to be one of the first two repainted?

The silver one has CA plate XP24261 and the red one has plate XP24262. Speculation is that the red one has a wrap and was the original charcoal/black one from the reveal since they have the same plate and cab shape.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Production and Delivery

Thank you so much. Papafox used that acronym also and it was driving me nuts and then I saw you use it. I guess you guys type really slow and it's to long to type Production and Delivery. Or how about car sales or sales number. Oh to simple sorry. I learn so much from you guys. Here is what I really think of the overuse of acronyms asdjfl;sdf;dfj. You will never know if that means anything. I won't tell you either.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What's a P&D report? I googled and they didn't know either. I am just not as smart as you acronym guys. I know what a P&L report is. That makes me feel a little smarter.

It's the Quarterly Production and Deliveries report. Here's the latest one from Apr 2nd, 2020. It's on Tesla's Invesor Relations (IR) website. Shirley you've bean?

P&D is auto industry gargon, but if you just add 'Tesla' to your search terms, Google will find it for you. GL!

Cheers!