Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVortex]

Our Model X turned 3 last week. Love it, love it, love it! We bought it cash. I do, however, sometimes think about what could have been if we bought TSLA three years ago in stead of the car...

Same feeling when I bought my 286 computer back in 1989 or 1990 for about $2500 in stead of MSFT

I get where you are coming from. Reminds me of when I bought a portable Compaq x86 with 128k RAM and 2 360k 5.25” diskette drives in 1983 for $3,500 instead of investing in AAPL. It turned out fine though, bought AAPL later and did ok.

 

[RobStark]

GM just laid off 525 third shift workers at their largest North American manufacturing facility where they make GMC Acadia and Cadillac XT5 and XT6. Why? Lack of demand.

Do the math. Tesla is taking away enormous chunks of market share and (IMO) is about to make a GAAP profit to boot for Q2 2020.

Falcon 9 flames may be an understatement on the ole Twitter profile. Buckle up.

GM has been shrinking since Elon was in high school.

 

[EinSV]

Same here, but no regrets because purchasing a Tesla and experiencing it firsthand was a significant part of validating my belief in the company.

It is entirely possible that, without that purchase, I may not have been able to continue to hold through the sub-200s last year.

Owning a Tesla is an advantage as an investor.

I bought my first Tesla in September 2016, when FUD was even more out of control than usual ("Solar City merger will bankrupt Tesla" blah blah blah). Experiencing how amazing my Model S was on a daily basis gave me the courage to add heavily to my investment through the end of the year, when TSLA was at bargain prices (best buying opportunity until May/June 2019).

There does seem to be a high correlation between long-term Tesla and $TSLA owners, and I don't think that's a coincidence. There continues to be such a steady stream of BS in the press that owning a Tesla is similar to having inside information. I definitely felt like that this week, when I experienced the latest mind-blowingly good stop sign and traffic light FSD update, a very impressive capability that has received zero attention in the mainstream press.

 

[mongo]

According to the Q4'19 ER, Tesla's inventory was 11 days of sales at that time. Q4'19 deliveries were 112,095, so that was 112,095 / 92 = 1,218 per day, and therefore inventory at that time was approximately 1,218 * 11 = 13,398 vehicles. In Q1'20 Tesla produced approximately 14,272 more vehicles than it delivered, so inventory at the end of Q1'20 was 13,398 + 14,272 = 27,670.

Thank you for providing the substantiation that eluded me. I was going from memory on a data point I saw a few days ago and could not, with immediacy, produce where I found it.

Ok, you're talking total inventory. I read the post as saying 30k additional inventory created in Q1.
Minor correction to the level at the end of Q4, footnote 1 on page 6 says: "The industry reference for days of sales is calculated by dividing new car inventory by the trailing four quarters of deliveries and using 261 working days (source: Automotive News)."
For Tesla, that is
12,091+17,772+17,483+19,475
+50,928+77,634+79,703+92,620=
367,706/261×11=15,497. Add on 14,272 for Q1 and the inventory was 29,769 (pretty much 30k).

Looking forward to a reduction in this number.

 

[Skryll]

Our Model X turned 3 last week. Love it, love it, love it! We bought it cash. I do, however, sometimes think about what could have been if we bought TSLA three years ago in stead of the car...

Same feeling when I bought my 286 computer back in 1989 or 1990 for about $2500 in stead of MSFT

Or you could have financed it with minimum down and put the cash into tesla stock. That’s what we did in 2016 and 2018.

 

[printf42]

Weekend OT:
Has been long since I last reported my TSLAQ findings, I still check from time to time, but they are really irrelevant these days, they even lost their imagination with their FUDs, hence this is OT.

Today I found something really fun:
Tesla Stock Bubble
Oh my, the level of TSLAQ FUD competency has degraded so much, I don’t even know where to start.

Just for anyone looking for a weekend laugh.

 

[LN1_Casey]

337 new Tesla Model S's, 798 model 3's, and 437 model X

There are now 387 model S, 672 model 3s, and 534 mode X.

There are currently listed 370 Model S, 712 model 3, and 560 model X on EV-TSLA.com (revamped EV-CPO).

This is an increase for both the model 3 by 40, and the model X by 26, but a decrease of model S by 17.

Over all however, it's still +33 model S, +123 mode X, and -86 mode 3 since 25 June.

 

[MC3OZ]

View attachment 557287


Most people paying $75k plus are not happy with an 8 year old design and we see it in the sales numbers.

On merits, demand for the current spec'd Model S should exceed 50k units per year.

Everyone would like to see an improved Model S.

IMO things like the battery, charging speed, heat pump, interiors are a higher priority, that can include some improvements to the exterior.

 

[MC3OZ]

The YouTube interview in this article is interesting:-
Tesla, Terafactories, & Lithium: Securing The Supply Chain | CleanTechnica

 

[RobStark]

Everyone would like to see an improved Model S.

IMO things like the battery, charging speed, heat pump, interiors are a higher priority, that can include some improvements to the exterior.

It is not either/or.

Tesla isn't scrapping the piggy bank for pennies.

Elon said he told his managers to spend money as needed as long as they don't waste it.

Charging speeding is now 225 Kw on the current S. An extra 25 Kw isn't a game changer.

I would much rather have state of the art headlamps/taillights with redesign than heat pump.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Same with FSD recognition, it may offset lower regulatory credits in Europe...

The big upside is more Model Y sales at what should be good margins.

Indeed. @Troy runs a survey which indicates the 'take-rate' for FSD on Model Y is ~50%.

This is big. It implies a net addition to gross margins for Model Y around $3.5K per unit sold, or approx +5% added to already fat margins for the Model Y:

• So far, only premium trims available
• only available in N.A reducing transport and working capital costs
• same build cost as Model 3 but with a higher base price

Model Y is shaping up to be a surprise contributor to a surprising quarter. Only unknow is volume, but even there anecdotal 'VINology' reports bode well.

Cheers!

 

[CorneliusXX]

The YouTube interview in this article is interesting:-
Tesla, Terafactories, & Lithium: Securing The Supply Chain | CleanTechnica

I'm liking Ivan's videos lately. He's really going the extra mile to interview knowledgeable people in the field of battery material supply chains. He also interviews with a straight bat unlike may of the Tesla channels where you need to dial down any comments back to reality. It's surprising he only has 15k subscribers with content this relevant to Tesla/EVs.

 

[StealthP3D]

Manufacturers self certify (via internal testing or out sourcing) their compliance with FMVSS, so Workhorse meeting the minimum federal requirements for a production vehicle is a non-event.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/DOT/NHTSA/Rulemaking/Articles/Associated Files/newManf.pdf

I'm confused at your comment. The point I saw being made was that passing the Federal Safety Standards was the last major hurdle before they could bid on Postal Service supply contracts. And that their vehicles had passed the testing. It doesn't appear relevant who does the testing, the relevant part is that it's been done and it was successful.

 

[Tslynk67]

Everyone would like to see an improved Model S.

IMO things like the battery, charging speed, heat pump, interiors are a higher priority, that can include some improvements to the exterior.

Indeed, something as simple as updating the tail-lights would be a start, they look archaic.

And the interior is very stale now. In theory my next car is a Roadster II (excusing MY for wifey), but I'm slightly hesitant because of the obvious lack of practicality. The other option would be a Plaid MS, but TBH I wouldn't buy one without a major update to the interior.

 

[Tslynk67]

I note that NO delivered 41 cars yesterday (Saturday), they don't normally delivery at the weekend, so it's a positive sign they're busy.

In Belgium the M3 inventory is now down to 8 M3:

 

[Artful Dodger]

but all these incentives this quarter indicate Tesla is having to work harder to sell all vehicles in NA.

I'm not convinced of that means low sales. My friend purchased his Model 3 SR+ in Sep 2019 and received 2 YEARS of free supercharging as part of the End-of-Quarter push. We all know how 2019Q3 turned out financially..

Free supercharging is the ideal perk to stimulate last minute deliveries:

• its low cost (Model 3 uses the least energy)
• its deferred expense (incurred over the next 4 qtrs)
• its SG&A (so its accounted for differently)

Each addtional Model 3 delivered in Q2 moves ~$10K from the Balance Sheet to the Income statement. That's worth some free juice tomorrow, for some hamburger today!

Cheers!

P.S. My friend did not even KNOW that he had free supercharging until I told him (he just wanted a Model 3). We had to go to the local Supercharger to prove it to him! Now he has 2 Summer vacations of free travel to look forward to, and a job keeping him home. Oh, how youth is wasted on the young!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I know I said I was taking a break from this forum, and for the most part I am. However, I saw this and thought you guys and gals might find it somewhat interesting. Latest from Chanos. At about 10:00 notice how he develops a nervous tick with his bouncing leg when discussing Tesla. I think he knows what he is saying is BS and his body language is giving him away.

Dan

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Thank you so much. Papafox used that acronym also and it was driving me nuts and then I saw you use it. I guess you guys type really slow and it's to long to type Production and Delivery. Or how about car sales or sales number. Oh to simple sorry. I learn so much from you guys. Here is what I really think of the overuse of acronyms asdjfl;sdf;dfj. You will never know if that means anything. I won't tell you either.

I was reading that the Berlin factory will be built faster the GF3.

What does the acronym GF3 mean?

 

[transpondster]

I note that NO delivered 41 cars yesterday (Saturday), they don't normally delivery at the weekend, so it's a positive sign they're busy.

In Belgium the M3 inventory is now down to 8 M3:

View attachment 557564

Am I reading correctly? There were 17,5 cars in inventory? Then they added 0,5 so finally they could sell them

 

[kosarfan]

Bernie fan?

Way OT.....but yes - Go Browns and Go TSLA!!! Come to think of it - with the cancellation of sports, following the ebbs and flows of this share price has filled a void!