Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

A lot of rich kids today, a lot of phantasizing about how to spend that new found wealth. But remember, it's all still on paper. Nothing in your pockets until you sell. The price targets are still far away and it could (will) be a rocky ride. Once you start thinking about what you could do with all that paper money, you're stepping on thin ice. When the SP starts plummeting, for days on end, losing hundreds of points, it may be hard for some to hold on and not panic sell, seeing those early retirements, mortgage free homes and new cars disappear again. I made the mistake once, but was lucky to get away with just a scratched ego. Keep a cool head.

Well said . Celebrate your victories but stay humble, especially in investing. Never stop learning. I made mistakes too but learned so much from the mistakes. Thank you to all the great posters on this forum, keep learning so much from you. What an awesome community.

 

[DriveMe]

I am so glad we weren’t forced to sell at $420!

 

[Nocturnal]

Maybe some, but I tend to think it's an increasingly strong view that S&P 500 inclusion is imminent, and all the mutual funds that are benchmarked against S&P 500 need to buy. Not because they HAVE to buy, but because a choice to own more or less TSLA than the index is, in effect, an active investment choice.

If you think that, on balance, TSLA will be a drag on the S&P 500, then owning less TSLA than the index will put you ahead of the index.

If you think that, on balance, TSLA will be one of the companies pushing the index higher, then owning more TSLA than is found in the index will juice your returns relative to the index.

Either way, as a mutual fund benchmarked against S&P 500, whatever you decide is an active decision in how your fund does.


It's not only the index funds that will need to buy - it'll also be all the funds benchmarked to the index. That's going to suck a huge fraction of the float out of the market.

That's one thing I'm not sure of. I assume the actively management S&P 500 funds such as Vanguard's Windsor funds would proactively add, but the truly passive funds would not.

I'm vicariously enjoying all the talk of what everyone is going to buy with this windfall. I'm a bit jealous to be honest. I have a different situation as ALL of my TSLA is locked up in my 401K. While I can still technically buy and sell, I can't access the $$ if I sell - at least not yet. This actually governs my passions well. I'm not sure how out of my head I would get it I could grab all this cash right now. I suspect in the long run, not being able to immediately enjoy the benefit of selling will work to my advantage. Hell, I probably would've sold at $1,000 and have to look at this run with regret. I still want an invite to the mansions and islands tho.

I think more than you think are in that situation. Well, maybe I'm wrong because I'm there too. Most of my shares are in my IRA. Though that just means a 10% hit if I take the money early, which will definitely happen. But considering my shares have gone up 500% or so, that 10% won't really be impactful.

I could technically retire now if I wanted to live frugally, but I like my job just fine, it pays well, and I get to work from home in my PJs. I need to at least double up from here so I can justify a roadster.

 

[anthonyj]

Their report only shows selling 1,000 shares from the ARKW fund, which brought it down to 11.96% of the fund. (TSLA is up to 12.36% in the ARKK fund, but it is 15.37% of the ARKQ fund.)

I noticed that too. They haven’t sold much the past two trading days. It’s like they know that something big is about to happen. They have it all calculated.

 

[printf42]

I’m confused:

Which year is this?

I gets it they are talking about revenue, but is it normal to say Apple is a 260B company instead of 1.6T?

 

[elasalle]

I removed everyone from my Ignore List today. Starting Troll Hunting Fresh. Cheers!!

 

[RobStark]

On Feb 4 the stock closed at $887

I guess Andrew Left will claim he closed his short position at the trough of $361 on March 8.

But I doubt it.

 

[Causalien]

I remember somebody I played cards with at work, moaning about his 6 figure tax bill one day at lunch. Many small violins played that day.

It's pretty insane. But I explain it this way to my inner circle friends.

Imagine spending many hours optimizing and reducing the cost to your life's needs. Automating everything to save time.Then comes tax time and realizing that you are paying 5x in taxes compared to yout own expenditure. Everyone will start looking for ways to cut down that tax.

It is especially maddening after meeting up with your government worker friend and having to listen to him brag about his platinum airlime status, presidential hertz status and som hotel status I forgot about. All free, all on government dime
But that's ok. However when you earn more money than the averge the traditional way, all of a sudden you are evil?

Then you learn about his side biz he started using gov time to take gov orders to further suck the tits of taxpayers.

 

[adiggs]

That's one thing I'm not sure of. I assume the actively management S&P 500 funds such as Vanguard's Windsor funds would proactively add, but the truly passive funds would not.

The truly passive S&P 500 funds - I expect that they CAN NOT add TSLA until the S&P committee actually adds the company to the index. What would be the point of a tracking fund, that adds companies not in the index?

As big as that universe is, I believe that the universe of funds that benchmark themselves against the SP 500 is MUCH bigger than the purely passive index tracking funds.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

I noticed that too. They haven’t sold much the past two trading days. It’s like they know that something big is about to happen. They have it all calculated.

Probably made a deal with some index funds that might need stocks soon.

 

[Bet TSLA]

• Expectation that such run-up in price means margin calls.
• Knowledge that such margin calls mean a short squeeze.

Disagree. The after hours buying today feels like it's forced by margin calls. I think tomorrow we'll see serious short squeeze behavior. That means sudden large market price purchases. It's a joy to watch.

Likely I'm wrong, like all the other times people have said "short squeeze". But it's sure feeling that way. Minimum 20% up tomorrow if it happens.

 

[Nocturnal]

The truly passive S&P 500 funds - I expect that they CAN NOT add TSLA until the S&P committee actually adds the company to the index. What would be the point of a tracking fund, that adds companies not in the index?

As big as that universe is, I believe that the universe of funds that benchmark themselves against the SP 500 is MUCH bigger than the purely passive index tracking funds.

Right. Even if they are allowed by the rules (charter?) they have no incentive to do so.

I noticed that too. They haven’t sold much the past two trading days. It’s like they know that something big is about to happen. They have it all calculated.

Agreed. Kathy has said that they sell to balance and because they know they can buy back on Tesla dips. No selling means they don't expect any dips.

 

[vikings123]

Were there any TSLA sightings on CNBC today? Or did every one forget - like Seymore
I don't see any videos .. on their web page

There was a segment on short shorts which I thought was funny(video below).

Other than that there's some guys talking about trading on CNBC right now and one guy mentioned Tesla is up 45% in one week. He also said there's more room for upside probably in the 1570-1580 range. Mostly bullish comments. What's funny was Tim was also on that panel and the anchor let him off easily

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Disagree. The after hours buying today feels like it's forced by margin calls. I think tomorrow we'll see serious short squeeze behavior. That means sudden large market price purchases. It's a joy to watch.

Likely I'm wrong, like all the other times people have said "short squeeze". But it's sure feeling that way. Minimum 20% up tomorrow if it happens.

20% minimum? that would imply a gain of almost $300.....if it happens...a virtual pair of 'short shorts' will be sent to you!

 

[Rammstein]

Congrats to all Tesla longs! I’m kind of retired because of the appreciation of the stock but I have been really bored so I started a YouTube channel on food reviews. In it I will be featuring my Tesla often, promoting the brand, and doing food reviews at Tesla superchargers. If you are interested here is a link to my first video where I show my Tesla.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Still going after hours... I just sold 10 shares at $1390 (still hodling a bunch).

Missed out on an extra $330 however im sure the gains you made outweigh that exponentially!

 

[Prunesquallor]

I’m fascinated by “Tesla Facts” theory about contracting float, a positive feedback loop that could cause a Chernobyl Spike (my term, not his) in SP. It sounds like that could happen so fast that there’s no way to react except for a sell limit.

Is anybody thinking about that? Grabbing a spike that may not be surpassed for years?

Yeah, I know - HODL. But at SOME point in the next few years or so I would like to start realizing some non-paper returns. Is there some kind of sell-ladder strategy that maximizes return and minimizes regret?

 

[Twooz]

Disagree. The after hours buying today feels like it's forced by margin calls. I think tomorrow we'll see serious short squeeze behavior. That means sudden large market price purchases. It's a joy to watch.

Likely I'm wrong, like all the other times people have said "short squeeze". But it's sure feeling that way. Minimum 20% up tomorrow if it happens.

20%? I like you.

 

[goinfraftw]

This is OT, but I found this to be super insightful:

Richard Wise's answer to Will I lose my friends as I become wealthy? - Quora

 

[Krugerrand]

Disagree. The after hours buying today feels like it's forced by margin calls. I think tomorrow we'll see serious short squeeze behavior. That means sudden large market price purchases. It's a joy to watch.

Likely I'm wrong, like all the other times people have said "short squeeze". But it's sure feeling that way. Minimum 20% up tomorrow if it happens.

Hmm...need to go but more cheese for my burrito just in case.

MINIMUM 20%??? Now you’re exaggerating.