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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I think 40M shares is an under-calculation by at least 50%:

• $10 Trillion is invested in S&P 500 index funds
• Tesla will come in at 1% or more of the S&P
• Therefore, $100 Billion of TSLA needs to be purchased in the 10 days when the S&P committee formally announces the inclusion until the actual inclusion.
• Tesla market cap is $254 Billion today, so $100 Billion is almost 40% of the float needs to be purchased.
• But, Elon and institutions and longs like us hold a huge percentage of shares.
• So, how can the price not sky-rocket?

There's only about $3 Trillion in S&P 500 index vehicles; the rest is active funds that are benchmarked to the S&P 500. Also you have to consider that Tesla will move out of the Extended Market Index where it has about a 4% weight, and those index funds funds will be selling it. I'm guessing the index funds will need about 10 million shares net.
 
To all the non believers that Tesla can save your live with autonomous driving....here's your ultimate test:

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There's only about $3 Trillion in S&P 500 index vehicles; the rest is active funds that are benchmarked to the S&P 500. Also you have to consider that Tesla will move out of the Extended Market Index where it has about a 4% weight, and those index funds funds will be selling it. I'm guessing the index funds will need about 10 million shares net.

@jackbowers I show that the TSLA weight in the EMIs is only about 2.5%. And there is way less AUM in EMIs than there is for S&P 500 funds.

Do you have a source for the total AUM in EMIs?

EMI=Extended Market Index
AUM=Assets Under Management
 
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Seeking Help from the TSLA Options and Tax planning Veterans
Dear all, I find myself in a fortunate dilemma and could appreciate some advise from ya'll [Summoning my self-declared mentors @ggr @DaveT @FrankSG @Papafox for their blessed guidance, I have learnt a huge deal from you over the years!]

Problem statement
:
=> Investment style/Premise: I have core TSLA position accrued over the years, and prefer to HOLDDDD for a long long time on retirement/post-tax/IRAs. I do not need the money and want it to grow as long as sensible. I am OK with a highly concentrated portfolio % on TSLA, I understand the risks.
=> Picked few Sept 2020 $800 strikes in my post-tax brokerage, had bought these as way-OTM calls at paltry premiums which have now gone into orbit with our astronauts! :eek: [How I wish I did these in Roth IRA/401k but that's another story for later]
=> Given this unique About-to-be-hit-by-the-TAX-train situation what would you gentlemen/ladies advise?

Please assume this year will be record taxable gains like never ever before due to other winning trades [blame AMZN OTM calls], any probably never in the future [since I hope to plan better hereafter]

Options:
  1. Sell ALL/100% of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts for lofty profits
    • Short term federal and state [CA] Cap-gain tax on entire profits, curl up and cry writing the tax check
  2. Sell few of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts, use that money towards exercising the remaining contracts for N x100 TSLA shares and sail into the sunset for years.
    • Short term Cap-gain-tax on sold options. What about the ones I exercise to buy [I have never really exercised options, and does it matter when I exercise them - now vs closer to expiry, its all the same I suppose since premium is lost]
  3. Exercise ALL of these Sep 2020 $800 contracts [I can arrange for the capital] but this would mean my TSLA position becomes TOO concentrated [I am comfortable with that] but I do also have $350 Jun 2022 and Sep 2021 $1000 strikes which also fall in the problem statement.
  4. Roll over to OTM? Would still be taxed, perhaps a preferable approach? Please shed some light on this.
Many many thanks for your insights/pointers!

First of all, I'm glad some of my posts/blogs have been useful to you!

I'm not really qualified to give tax advice, but I think @ggr 's post is very helpful in that regard.

I'll just make a comment on Option #4. I don't think OTM options (especially Jun'22 expiration) are good value at the moment. I'm still holding all my options for now, because I just see too much near term upside with S&P 500 inclusion and a strong 2nd half of 2020, but the prices on some of the Jun'22s are nutty. My Jun'22 $1,400s are worth about 38 shares per contract right now, which means they're priced as if the stock is almost $2,300 already.

Some wild things can happen during S&P 500 inclusion, but Jun'22s in particular are crazy expensive right now. I'm keeping my eyes on things, and I might start to deleverage a bit here and there if we reach $2,000 after another couple days like this.
 
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Today opened with Max Pain at 1135 but currently MMs are still feeling that pain. With the over 10% rise there will surely be margin calls tomorrow for shorts. The question is how liquid is the stock right now. I have NO INTENTIONS on selling what I have and even if I did, I am waiting until after ER. Who would risk it?

Open interest this morning:
View attachment 561231

This is like a feeding frenzy but it's shorts and MMs doing the buying. Each time the MMs moved up to another tier of a higher Call strike it is blown by. It also doesn't look like anyone is real interested in taking that PUT bet either. This is going to cause a forced rise IMO because shorts need shares and option sellers need shares as people gobble up the higher and higher strike prices. I can picture this potential moving up drastically then calming back down. I have no clue where a peak will be or what "calm" will be since there is serious pressure from two directions.

Volume for today:
View attachment 561232

Sadly the pessimist in me is expecting some serious manipulation soon.

There must be some funds buying call options as protection against an S&P 500 inclusion squeeze. Might be smart to pay a small (well... more like medium sized) premium right now to lock in a price that's going to be cheap in a few weeks.
 
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BI was out in full force FUD this morning. Obviously irrelevant.
BI (i.e, Clickbait.com) chases clicks. That is all they do.

My guess is he was asking if there is a pattern of TSLA movement followed by BI articles, not the other way around. IMO, there is absolutely no doubt since all BI seems to do is chase hot stories of the day and write worthless blather about them. With Tesla, the story is usually negative.
 
1410 is the level at which I own $1,000,000 worth of TSLA. I've accumulated these shares since 2013. I'm not sure I would have remained calm enough to hold through the dark times if it wasn't for this forum. Thank you.

P.S. Not selling until Tesla is at least a $1 Trillion company.
Hmmm, that's just 4x from now... U weak now, bruv? ;)

Cheers!