Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

LG converting a factory to build Tesla batteries. Tesla eating up global capacity.

Battery squeeze anyone?

LG Chem to produce Tesla batteries in South Korea this year as demand grows: source

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Futures have turned south. Should be interesting to see if TSLA can keep gaining meaningful ground against what looks like an expected broader pullback since everything was up today including AMZN crossing the $3k threshold.

I better go to sleep so I can be up to trade. I'm on vacation and I'm still getting up early anyways just for this. I mean it's worth it and it's a once in a lifetime event but still.

 

[Mo City]

So 1390 in early premarket in Germany. Does anyone want to guess where it goes from here?

How does $1452 sound?

 

[StealthP3D]

Reminds me of the first time we went to 900, but on steroids.

Anyone know what the float is when BKRH got into the S&P?
I wonder if this is a crescendo to a S&P squeeze of unprecedented proportions.

You guys think manipulators are pumping up the market cap prior to S&P inclusion so then the market cap becomes say 2% of the entire S&P when inclusion is announced therefore over 150 million shares need to be bought? And how there are not enough float so it will create a massive S&P squeeze so these manipulators can bank?

Seems like it's a once in a life time opportunity because

1. Tsla valuation is goin to be the largest when induction happens.
2. Float for Tsla shares are incredibility low
3. CEO hinted at profitability with short shorts and leaked emails.

You just don't get this kind of opportunity ever. Have the S&P funds do the work for you as the stock pops.

I like your thinking here.

While there are no guarantees either way, the potential upside from here is much larger than any potential downside (or any possible downside for that matter). Any serious downdraft from this price level would be met with a flurry of buying from those who have been kicking themselves for missing out on this amazing run. There is almost certainly built-in levitation that increases rapidly in proportion to any price drops that might happen.

 

[thait84]

Feels like ages ago when we all bought 1 share at 420.69...

 

[Fobble]

LG converting a factory to build Tesla batteries. Tesla eating up global capacity.

Battery squeeze anyone?

LG Chem to produce Tesla batteries in South Korea this year as demand grows: source

Yep, even Toyota has to limit production of their RAV4 Prime due to battery constraint:
Toyota RAV4 Prime PHEV Availability In U.S. To Be Extremely Limited

 

[UkNorthampton]

So exciting, congratulations!

In real life I have my wife (who loves Tesla's mission but doesn't understand shares etc) and one flaky mate who loves trading shares (seemingly losing money) who bought 3 shares and he 'needs the money' for essentials.

Feeling excited but a bit detached, so this board is useful to me. Almost everyone I know is so deep in debt. Not a way I want to live, I'd rather stop spending (extreme ascetic mode) than be in debt. I want freedom from 'the man'. Travel, living in interesting places for a few months at a time and lots of thinking is the future I want.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Feels like ages ago when we all bought 1 share at 420.69...

Perhaps y'all did. Me, I bought 100 shares at 420 on 12/23/19. Currently up a bit over $100K. The 100 shares I bought at 888.88 on 2/4/20 are doing okay too.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I haven't seen a decent troll here for a few weeks (but maybe that's because @Right_Said_Fred is doing his job most excellently).

The 357 has been holstered for weeks now, with a full chamber. Not a troll in sight. No, uberbulls, people questioning the sustainability of this rally are not trolls.

Now that I have the microphone: let’s try to keep tax discussion out of this thread. There are dedicated tax threads.

 

[Fobble]

With these stock prices and this demand for TSLA I think Tesla should do a capital raise ($10 billion?)

We will know more during the Q2 earning call. If Elon says "no need to raise funds", then it will probably be a stock offer for 4-10 billions a few weeks later

 

[MC3OZ]

So 1390 in early premarket in Germany. Does anyone want to guess where it goes from here?

Yes, I throw in the towel, and give up on reading all of the forum posts

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Check dr Michael Greger’s book “how not to die”.
Best seller and science based info on how to avoid disease.

very good book —- it could save your life!

 

[Tslynk67]

The more OTM the smaller the delta, but also the smaller the premium.. So the real factor of interest is how much of a percent of the premium the delta is.. For instance, if the premium is 2$ and the delta is 0.3, then if the stock rises with 1$, the option will rise with 30cents, which is 15% of the premium.. I took some easy numbers to avoid having to dig up my calculator, but you can easily calculate this percentage for all the options at all strike prices and expiries..
Well, I didn't do it for all, but sampled some 20 different ones, and I found that the more OTM the better the leverage..
Or IOW, if you have 5000$ to play with, put it all in on the most OTM ones.. And when the strike price is approached, roll up to a higher strike.. Increases your leverage again, and since they are cheaper will leave you some cash to further pay with..
And since you're living in Belgium, you don't have to worry about taxes.. (if you are taxed in Belgium, that is..)

Thanks - opposite of what some others have said, so who knows!

Yeah, I'm taxed in Belgium, but unfortunately, my trading account is my company account - which I setup some years back when they introduced the "speculation tax" on personal accounts (since abandoned). So I've some hefty tax to pay there in 2022...

In other news, Belgian inventory sold out. Short Shorts inventory, that is!

 

[Off Shore]

Having finally brought myself to the end of this thread (not an easy task) I ask leave to offer my thanks to all, those present and those who have moved on, and in some way I suppose to those on Ignore. Elon is right that the retail investors know more than the analysts, and a great deal of that knowledge has been and continues to be here. Again, thank you all.

 

[Baumisch]

Having finally brought myself to the end of this thread (not an easy task) I ask leave to offer my thanks to all, those present and those who have moved on, and in some way I suppose to those on Ignore. Elon is right that the retail investors know more than the analysts, and a great deal of that knowledge has been and continues to be here. Again, thank you all.

True - I'm one of the silent people lurking here for years on every post - much much MUCH appreciated !

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Wasn't there a member call Bet the House who took a huge risk and invested everything in tsla? is he/she still around?

There are many of us around here. I assume the distinction is Bet the House did this several years ago.

Barely a year ago. Here's his Dec 19, 2019 post referencing his initial post on May 24, 2019! Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

His last post was in May 1st of this year, about getting calls and puts: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

Don't know if that means anything about what he's done with his shares, but he sure did well by Dec.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I want to meet the people stupid enough to give money to people with this kind of track record.

Since inception on June 1, 2011 the fund is up 43.0% net while the S&P 500 is up 178.6% and the Russell 2000 is up 93.0%. Since inception the fund has compounded at 4.0% net annually vs 11.9% for the S&P 500 and 7.5% for the Russell 2000.

Considering how long he had held his short position, and the magnitude of the losses to maintain that short position, he actually did pretty well with his other holdings to make up for that monumentally foolish short.

Oh, and you'll want to meet Stan and Phyllis Spiegel, the namesakes of his fund (Stanphyll Capital - aka mom and dad's money).

 

[FrankSG]

I am wondering about this too. The ARK analysis page Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years says:

In all cases, except those in which it either is denied access to the capital markets or is bankrupt, we assume that Tesla issues $10 billion in equity capital to scale production at an accelerated rate and capitalize on its competitive advantages.​

What if they were to time this raise to a few minutes after S&P inclusion is announced and issue shares a day or two later. That would give funds a new source of shares to acquire without needing to buy on the open market. Seems like it would be ideal, but I don't know much about how this stuff works.

This assumes that Tesla's growth is currently constrained by cash, but I don't believe it is. To be honest, I don't even think it was in January during the last cap raise. I reckon they only raised money because of the high SP and upcoming uncertainty surrounding COVID-19.

I can't remember exactly which earnings call it was (probably Q3 or Q4), but I think somebody asked about why bother with profitability and not just keep going for max growth. I believe Elon made some comments about talent being a bottleneck.

Tesla currently has like $8-9B cash on hand? Probably well over $10B by the end of the year? I think batteries and (engineering) talent are bigger bottlenecks to Tesla's growth than cash at this point in time. This is where the design and R&D centers in China, Berlin, and Israel will come in.

Don't forget Tesla can also use lines of credit to build additional factories, like they're doing in China. And the FCA credits deal is likely being used to (partially) fund Giga Berlin.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Might not be bad to create a general wealth/tax management thread.

Series of threads for different jurisdictions - I'm UK now, but the life I can start to imagine in 10 years turns me into an international nomad. Most of my shares are in a tax-free Individual Savings Account (ISA) - but some are in a SIPP - self select pension - so they will be the last I touch if I can't get a dividend income. Many countries have wealth taxes - so I couldn't be domiciled there. Several countries have flat taxes, others have zero tax on first income and bands thereafter eg UK - around £12,000 a year. For dividend income from ISA or selling shares, UK is actually very good, but can only add £20,000 per year. A couple with several kids (Junior ISAs) could eventually transfer some of their TSLA wealth across, but it would take a long time for most and would be tax inefficient in the meantime. For UK people - ISAs so seem like a good wrapper - if only I'd started earlier with Tesla, luckily I started a long time ago, so had some already in ISAs (and PEPs before).

 

[soundart2]

Quick question/background:

Longtime lurker/shareholder (last post was in 2013 under a different name). Thanks to all though the years for their incredible insight. I think I found Curt Renz replied to one of my old posts. And when I was thinking of selling at 90 (after buying at 30), think it was Luvb2b who advised me not to. Held through the duration, buying along the way. I outsmarted myself when I thought I figured out the up-down pattern when SP would bounce off 280. So sold half at 260, but after a year of regret, was able to buy back again at 262. Foolishly, didn't buy when it dropped to the 170's, but never sold more either. And became a Teslanaire today. Thanks to all the valuable contributions of too many people to name.

But my question -- and I think someone was explaining something similar. Last week I bought an option call spread at 1200/1300 expiring in June 22. When the stock ran today, and both were in the money, I assumed I would have made near 10k per option (100 X 10). But the both legs moved up in lockstep, pretty much, and I'm still about even. Is there a simple explanation as to why this is? i.e. Is it because there is so much time left, that stock could drop or rise, such that the risk hasn't really changed on each leg? I was actually going to buy a nearer term call spread (Oct), which would have been the same price as the one I bought (I think ~3.2k/option). But I surmise that had a better rise today, as it's nearer term? I thought I was a genius buying it out for 2 years from now. Thought I was guaranteed to 3x my money. But I guess now the time risk is working against me. Is my understanding correct?