Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[aubreymcfato]

Periodic reminder that there is a TMC group on Kiva led by @Zaxxon and dedicated to microlending to those less fortunate than us.
I personally like Kiva as after a month or so I get 25$ back so I do another loan.
It's a fun and helpful hobby.

You can join here:
Kiva - Join Andrea on Kiva

 

[Tslynk67]

You can't make this sheeeeet up

 

[UkNorthampton]

Why do I say the things you list are only a small part of what is going on here? Because those things are barely relevant, in and of themselves. However, they do help illuminate the fact that the investing public has been deceived. People were told Tesla was a zero, the competition was just around the corner, the more cars Tesla makes, the more money they lose, they are only a going concern thanks to massive government incentives that they desperately need, Tesla doesn't have anything special or unique, Elon Musk is a crazy self-centered person who only wants attention, he doesn't know how to run a company, Tesla is only a car company....wait, that last one is important. You mean Tesla is really NOT only a car company???

If I was lied to about all of those other things, maybe it really is true that Elon Musk knows what he's doing and it's not just a car company! Maybe those other people were right! Maybe Cathie Wood knows what she's talking about.

Never under-estimate how long it takes investors, in the aggregate, to catch on to the truth, no matter how simple and obvious that truth may seem to you. This isn't about S&P 500 inclusion anymore than stock trading is about investing.

Now we own a stock that everyone wants a piece of for future growth and security in the new age we are entering. It will go up and down with the market and with instantaneous supply/demand considerations but it will never go back to where it was just a few short months ago. As far as upside? In the short-term I continue to believe Tesla will decouple from reality and reach dizzying new highs. Along the way it will have sharp drops. When those will happen, or how deep they will be, no one knows but it's a good bet there will be a drop of significance before Q2 earnings are announced. But depending upon how TSLA performs through this week and into next week, the drop may or may not take us lower than we are now. And the old adage "Time in the market beats timing the market" really is true! Ignore it at your own peril!

I'm gonna kick back and watch this all unfold and not worry about a hundred dollars here or there.

I think this is key - you can fool all of the people etc...

People who would NOT have considered buying or even leasing a Tesla will increasingly have more confidence as well as investors. They will move to a position where they trust Tesla on all its products including solar, storage and short shorts. I think many people think the same about Apple and other brands that have concentrated on quality rather than price.

This might extend to Tesla as an energy provider - this was mentioned by Zac and Jesse on Now You Know youtube - Octopus are strong in UK and moving to Germany and Australia. Tesla may go direct in many markets, even the UK or get companies like Octopus to do the customer service and meter installs. Octopus have Autobidder type software called Kraken and work with Tesla.

Octopus have at least 3 interesting pricing plans (tariffs in UK English, I understand tariff might mean tax in USA)

1. Octopus Tesla - Octopus Energy
2. Agile - as mentioned on Zac and Jesse - this is the one that can go negative on pricing - so you get paid to store/use energy.
3. Go - very good for electric vehicles/storage

Most informative way to see some of this is to compare Agile and Go and then Tesla. At the moment, I'm not driving, I don't have solar or storage and I need a new meter installed to take maximum advantage - but for long commutes - I would switch to one of these rates. Compare Agile and Go - Octopus Go versus Agile - Energy Stats UK

Some were getting paid nearly 10p/kwh - imagine having a few powerwalls and multiple cars. Imagine being a business and taking advantage of even more extreme wholesale rates to heat buildings, charge lorries (semis) etc. Al kinds of storage make sense now - liquid air, hot water, state-change materials, batteries.

 

[MABMAB]

I’m seeing 1420+ overseas, 1413 here US.

battery day delays ok with me, the expectation of a thing can be so much better than the thing.

musk and Tesla PR should always leave imagination of future open ended, leave some wanton desire,always thinking about what could be. That is the power they have over the market,drives sales, fuels market rallies

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Netherlands June 2020

 

[vikings123]

But my question -- and I think someone was explaining something similar. Last week I bought an option call spread at 1200/1300 expiring in June 22. When the stock ran today, and both were in the money, I assumed I would have made near 10k per option (100 X 10). But the both legs moved up in lockstep, pretty much, and I'm still about even. Is there a simple explanation as to why this is? i.e. Is it because there is so much time left, that stock could drop or rise, such that the risk hasn't really changed on each leg? I was actually going to buy a nearer term call spread (Oct), which would have been the same price as the one I bought (I think ~3.2k/option). But I surmise that had a better rise today, as it's nearer term? I thought I was a genius buying it out for 2 years from now. Thought I was guaranteed to 3x my money. But I guess now the time risk is working against me. Is my understanding correct?

Never used spreads but my understanding is that spreads have lower risk and limited profit potential.

What Is A Bull Call Spread? - Fidelity

 

[MartinAustin]

I started buying TSLA when it was $38.

It is now 37.65 times higher than that.

In other words, never mind bags... it has squared!

 

[Silentk]

Nope hasn't been 'round these here parts in 5 weeks...

Bet the House

thanks. I see he/she borrowed in May 19 to buy 1000 shares. I sure hope he held on!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Octopus have at least 3 interesting pricing plans (tariffs in UK English, I understand tariff might mean tax in USA)

Thanks for the heads up that ‘tariff’ is another of those words that charges meaning across the oceans.

It could be a word on way out. When I google “Australian Taxi Tariffs” I get results for ‘fares’, ‘charges’, ‘rates’ but not ‘tariffs’. This despite every taxi meter clearly displaying the label ‘tariff’ and the name/code of the tariff currently being applied, so you know you are not being scammed with a late night tariff during day hours.

 

[CaliBear1]

Well, since NOEL is an anagram for Elon...

Anyone else feel lately like every night is Christmas Eve and every day is Christmas? Let’s hope it continues!

 

[EV forever]

Quick question/background:

Longtime lurker/shareholder (last post was in 2013 under a different name). Thanks to all though the years for their incredible insight. I think I found Curt Renz replied to one of my old posts. And when I was thinking of selling at 90 (after buying at 30), think it was Luvb2b who advised me not to. Held through the duration, buying along the way. I outsmarted myself when I thought I figured out the up-down pattern when SP would bounce off 280. So sold half at 260, but after a year of regret, was able to buy back again at 262. Foolishly, didn't buy when it dropped to the 170's, but never sold more either. And became a Teslanaire today. Thanks to all the valuable contributions of too many people to name.

But my question -- and I think someone was explaining something similar. Last week I bought an option call spread at 1200/1300 expiring in June 22. When the stock ran today, and both were in the money, I assumed I would have made near 10k per option (100 X 10). But the both legs moved up in lockstep, pretty much, and I'm still about even. Is there a simple explanation as to why this is? i.e. Is it because there is so much time left, that stock could drop or rise, such that the risk hasn't really changed on each leg? I was actually going to buy a nearer term call spread (Oct), which would have been the same price as the one I bought (I think ~3.2k/option). But I surmise that had a better rise today, as it's nearer term? I thought I was a genius buying it out for 2 years from now. Thought I was guaranteed to 3x my money. But I guess now the time risk is working against me. Is my understanding correct?

Enter your info to get profit loss calculations. I usually try these before starting any new position.
Options profit calculator

 

[Chenkers]

But my question -- and I think someone was explaining something similar. Last week I bought an option call spread at 1200/1300 expiring in June 22. When the stock ran today, and both were in the money, I assumed I would have made near 10k per option (100 X 10). But the both legs moved up in lockstep, pretty much, and I'm still about even. Is there a simple explanation as to why this is? i.e. Is it because there is so much time left, that stock could drop or rise, such that the risk hasn't really changed on each leg? I was actually going to buy a nearer term call spread (Oct), which would have been the same price as the one I bought (I think ~3.2k/option). But I surmise that had a better rise today, as it's nearer term? I thought I was a genius buying it out for 2 years from now. Thought I was guaranteed to 3x my money. But I guess now the time risk is working against me. Is my understanding correct?

With a call spread the upper (sold) call caps your potential gains. So in this case the value of the option spread at expiry will never exceed $100. To increase the gain you need to roll the spreads higher/wider or close the sold call. This could get costly so try the options calculator linked above to test out some scenarios.

 

[T@oo]

Interesting read about electric cars from a former Tesla engineer (Phillipe Chain).

Tl;dr: No. Read it.

 

[ThisStockGood]

So... any thoughts on when (in terms of SP) TSLA is going to pay dividends? If ever?

 

[engle]

So... any thoughts on when (in terms of SP) TSLA is going to pay dividends? If ever?

My guess is not as long as Elon is running TSLA. The company can generate a higher return investing cash that would have gone to pay dividends back into the business to increase share price. Investors who wish to generate an income stream from their shares can sell a small percentage on a monthly/quarterly/annual basis as desired. Now that these sales are commission-free I don't see why a hyper-growth name like Tesla needs to pay dividends to attract investors. Leave those to bloated mega-caps and my REITs!

That written, enabling people to sell a smaller value of TSLA stock (e.g. just one share) to generate a personal "dividend" would be another reason to favor a stock split at some point!

 

[wnorris]

My guess is not as long as Elon is running TSLA. The company can generate a higher return investing cash that would have gone to pay dividends back into the business to increase share price. Investors who wish to generate an income stream from their shares can sell a small percentage on a monthly/quarterly/annual basis as desired. Now that these sales are commission-free I don't see why a hyper-growth name like Tesla needs to pay dividends to attract investors. Leave those to bloated mega-caps and my REITs!

That written, enabling people to sell a smaller value of TSLA stock (e.g. just one share) to generate a personal "dividend" would be another reason to favor a stock split at some point!

I am hopeful that in the future Tesla will be in a similar situation as Apple in that they will be throwing off enough cash each quarter to where it no longer makes sense to keep piling it up. I'd love to be able to live off of divvies instead of periodically divesting of shares.

 

[H Mak]

Regarding the squeeze/spike following inclusion in the S&P which has been discussed a lot on here recently, "Tesla Facts" on Twitter (ex this forum) has written a couple of thoughtful threads on the subject over the last 24 hours. They are fascinating and worth reading. I can't remember if they have already been linked here but in case not, here it is.

(@truth_tesla) on Twitter

One of his points is the fact that most companies graduate to the S&P500 via the 400 but Tesla will jump straight in. This in itself could destabilise the share price (in a good way). He also thinks the effect could be around for some time, unlike the VW spike which was short lived.

 

[Frank Einstein]

Is this an appropriate place to link to Omar Qazi's legal gofundme? Legal Defense Against Aaron Greenspan organized by Omar Qazi. Saw FC/truth tesla retweeting it.

Here's the campaign description:

After threatening and harassing me ever since he doxxed me on my birthday in 2019, Tesla short-seller Aaron Greenspan has now filed a lawsuit against me and Elon Musk.

This legal defense fund will be used to defend against Aaron Greenspan's frivolous lawsuit and bring light to the unlawful conduct of Tesla short sellers like Greenspan.

I don't expect anything from anyone, but if you want to chip in thank you so much for reducing the burden on myself and my family. I can never thank you enough.

Even one dollar helps. I appreciate you all a lot

–– Omar Qazi

 

[Twooz]

Regarding the squeeze/spike following inclusion in the S&P which has been discussed a lot on here recently, "Tesla Facts" on Twitter (ex this forum) has written a couple of thoughtful threads on the subject over the last 24 hours. They are fascinating and worth reading. I can't remember if they have already been linked here but in case not, here it is.

(@truth_tesla) on Twitter

One of his points is the fact that most companies graduate to the S&P500 via the 400 but Tesla will jump straight in. This in itself could destabilise the share price (in a good way). He also thinks the effect could be around for some time, unlike the VW spike which was short lived.

This has been discussed to death if you look over the past couple days in this thread

 

[chrsk]

So... any thoughts on when (in terms of SP) TSLA is going to pay dividends? If ever?

In the end I guess. Hopefully that's in a distant future, dividend usually happens when there is no more ways to grow in a rapid pace.