Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cohiba]

I saw this one yesterday in the orderflow. Strike 2850 with $1.6m premium.

 

[LST]

I'm considering to reduce my TSLA holdings down from the current 50% to 25% of the amount I initially purchased many years ago.

My expectation is still that Tesla will become one of the world's dominant technology companies and retain that position for decades. My initial investment thesis from then still holds - namely that electric transportation will become the world's dominant transport technology, and that the established transportation industry is caught in a classic Innovator's Dilemma which makes them structurally incapable of competing, eventually resulting in their downfall.

Tesla has executed beyond what I had even dared to think in the most optimistic scenario, and the competition has floundered worse. They've done almost all the critical strategic bits right. Still not sold on the SolarCity acquisition, but I have my suspicions that this move averted an obscure liquidity problem that would have been a grave threat to Tesla. The future is looking bright, and Tesla is the only player that shows real credibility for innovating in electric transport and tech manufacturing. I wouldn't be surprised if they're making aircraft in five or ten years. So few companies and capitalists dare to put their money where their mouth is. It's so promising to support such a movement.

With that said, the current stock rally is putting me in a position where I am within arm's reach of my life financial goals, almost a decade ahead of schedule. The freedom that comes from being in such a position might be greater than potentially losing out on having a relatively ridiculous (hey, I'm middle class) ownership stake in tomorrow's greatest tech behemoth.

I am seriously considering to lock in most of those gains and put them in something diversified. It's been years of light anxiety and worry. It's scary to have the finish line in sight.

Dunno how you folks have been managing this situation. Few on this board are independently wealthy, and I notice we've lost a few members over the years of rollercoaster appreciation.

I can understand, that the ups and downs in TSLA is nervewrecking. But if you still believe that this story can go to 10k, why not come along with the ride ? There are very few opportunities, most of which I have missed (amazon, Microsoft etc. ) I would only realise gains if I‘d need the cash right away. The 100% gains I locked in at 40, 120 are still hurting .. how could I have listened to financial advisor? Since then I have been accumulating steadily and now watch the ups and downs, sometimes with bewildering more often with endless joy !
Stay long, advice

 

[Beltsbear]

I think Elon has an extra ace up his sleeve to help with the long tail of problems. My recollection from Autonomy Day is that Tesla was already at work on an even faster follow up AI chip to the one now in HW3. Once it is ready for release, I expect that next chip is going to pop right into the HW3 board. I don't remember exactly how large the additional processing power was predicted to be, but I'm confident it is substantial. I don't think Elon values perfect consistency or accuracy in his FSD forward looking statements. Is the new more powerful chip in the Tesla today? No. But the board it will fit into is!

When you know how the car and the HW3 computer are built and that’s simply not possible. Tesla could make another computer, probably called HW4, and replace all the cars with that. But you’re definitely gonna have to swap that entire board for any substantial upgrade.

 

[Singuy]

I'm considering to reduce my TSLA holdings down from the current 50% to 25% of the amount I initially purchased many years ago.

My expectation is still that Tesla will become one of the world's dominant technology companies and retain that position for decades. My initial investment thesis from then still holds - namely that electric transportation will become the world's dominant transport technology, and that the established transportation industry is caught in a classic Innovator's Dilemma which makes them structurally incapable of competing, eventually resulting in their downfall.

Tesla has executed beyond what I had even dared to think in the most optimistic scenario, and the competition has floundered worse. They've done almost all the critical strategic bits right. Still not sold on the SolarCity acquisition, but I have my suspicions that this move averted an obscure liquidity problem that would have been a grave threat to Tesla. The future is looking bright, and Tesla is the only player that shows real credibility for innovating in electric transport and tech manufacturing. I wouldn't be surprised if they're making aircraft in five or ten years. So few companies and capitalists dare to put their money where their mouth is. It's so promising to support such a movement.

With that said, the current stock rally is putting me in a position where I am within arm's reach of my life financial goals, almost a decade ahead of schedule. The freedom that comes from being in such a position might be greater than potentially losing out on having a relatively ridiculous (hey, I'm middle class) ownership stake in tomorrow's greatest tech behemoth.

I am seriously considering to lock in most of those gains and put them in something diversified. It's been years of light anxiety and worry. It's scary to have the finish line in sight.

Dunno how you folks have been managing this situation. Few on this board are independently wealthy, and I notice we've lost a few members over the years of rollercoaster appreciation.

Only if you think TSLA has surpassed it's valuation due to some kind of squeeze. I will be evaluating the situation after earnings. I don't think the stock deserves to be sat 3-4k but who knows if there's some kind of squeeze situation. But currently I don't see why it can't be 1.5k when it was almost at 1k prior to a pandemic. The pandemic decides to put every company to the test, and Tesla is winning with flying colors while those analyst start to realize this company is slowly becoming something else and not a car company which the majority of them can't even make a profit after selling millions of cars.

 

[Unpilot]

1400 pre-market....calling it now

 

[marvinat0rz]

I can understand, that the ups and downs in TSLA is nervewrecking. But if you still believe that this story can go to 10k, why not come along with the ride ? There are very few opportunities, most of which I have missed (amazon, Microsoft etc. )

Thanks for your thoughts. Strictly speaking, I'd still be along with the ride, and in the scenario you describe, I'd still be wealthy far beyond what I'd ever expect to need. The question is whether the regret of losing out on 50% of that potential wealth weighs heavier than security today.

In my philosophy, there's a step change between being financially independent and not. That's a simplification, but it's a simplification I'm confidently operating with. If I was already there from other investments, there would be no question about the decision I'm considering -- I'd definitely not do it, and follow along with your advice. But there's a freedom of mind that comes from being relatively sure that no likely external event can dictate the choices of employment & life I'd have to make, that I think is in a category of its own. I worry about not seizing it when it's there. Losing out on due to bad luck it would be a massive loss that I'd regret greatly.

I haven't actually regretted any of the risk-adjustment stock sales I've made up until now. Yes, I'd be much richer if I hadn't, but they were the right choices at the time, and I would not have been true to myself to do otherwise. So although the dispositions I'm considering here are likely not regret-free, I am fairly sure that I can stand tall and both defend and live well with them in the future.

 

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Thu, 09 Jul 2020

• NASDAQ-100 Futures: +75.25 +0.71% 08:48:39 ET
• TSLA share price: 1375.75 +$9.87 +0.72%
• NASDAQ Pre-market Volume: 75,207 @ 08:00 ET

Comment: "Pre-Market High $1,394.20 @ 08:41 ET"

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

What's p1300, like max pain?

10/07 $1300 strike put - lots of volume yesterday and now we see it's the highest open-interest, beating $1200 by a nose:

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm considering to reduce my TSLA holdings down from the current 50% to 25% of the amount I initially purchased many years ago.

My expectation is still that Tesla will become one of the world's dominant technology companies and retain that position for decades. My initial investment thesis from then still holds - namely that electric transportation will become the world's dominant transport technology, and that the established transportation industry is caught in a classic Innovator's Dilemma which makes them structurally incapable of competing, eventually resulting in their downfall.

Tesla has executed beyond what I had even dared to think in the most optimistic scenario, and the competition has floundered worse. They've done almost all the critical strategic bits right. Still not sold on the SolarCity acquisition, but I have my suspicions that this move averted an obscure liquidity problem that would have been a grave threat to Tesla. The future is looking bright, and Tesla is the only player that shows real credibility for innovating in electric transport and tech manufacturing. I wouldn't be surprised if they're making aircraft in five or ten years. So few companies and capitalists dare to put their money where their mouth is. It's so promising to support such a movement.

With that said, the current stock rally is putting me in a position where I am within arm's reach of my life financial goals, almost a decade ahead of schedule. The freedom that comes from being in such a position might be greater than potentially losing out on having a relatively ridiculous (hey, I'm middle class) ownership stake in tomorrow's greatest tech behemoth.

I am seriously considering to lock in most of those gains and put them in something diversified. It's been years of light anxiety and worry. It's scary to have the finish line in sight.

Dunno how you folks have been managing this situation. Few on this board are independently wealthy, and I notice we've lost a few members over the years of rollercoaster appreciation.

The point of investing is to meet your financial goals. If you are at the point where you have "enough", then I'd say there is nothing wrong with trimming. There is a level where the promise of doubling your money isn't worth the risk of seeing your money cut in half. Obviously that differs based on risk tolerance and life situation.

I have an SP in mind myself where I will do something similar. When price hits Y I'll sell a third and diversify, when/if it hits 2Y I'll sell another third. The last chunk being held until needed. I expect TSLA will hit 10k, maybe more, but that's not a guarantee. Even if you sell half your stake you will surely be quite wealthy if your remaining shares appreciate that much. IMO, I'd wait until after Q2/3 this year because that will be the biggest bump in the near term and the downside risk is pretty low barring major macro issues. Future catalysts will be cybertruck and/or semi rolling out in numbers or material FSD completion.

That said- if the market wants to take his "we are super close for reals this time!" comment seriously and bump the stock up- I'm ok with that

I very much doubt they will. I'm listening though. This comment seems a little different combined with the known AP re-write going on. That's ok though. I like it when the market ignores TSLA and then is shocked when good things happen.

 

[Knightshade]

Waymo is arguably at level 3 at the moment, but no one is further along than that.

Waymo has level 4 in some of their arizona taxis, with no human driver present.

All their L4 stuff is heavily geofenced though, so it's a very very different approach than Teslas where they're aiming for a much broader application.

Final edit: Early on, Elon fully walked the plank on autonomy. If Tesla doesn't deliver something amazing in a few months, his cred should be nuked.

What cred?

He promised cross-country autonomous drive by 2017- then 2018- we're still waiting.

He promised enhanced summon release in 6 weeks- it took just under a year and continues to underwhelm almost another year later.

He promised feature complete FSD by end of 2019- now it's end of 2020 maybe.

He promised Robotaxis working and approved by regulators at least somewhere in the world by end of 2020- and that clearly ain't happening either.


I believe Musk on a lot of stuff. He seems to be especially good on timelines related to actual manufacturing for example.

But FSD timelines ain't one of the things you should put any faith in what he says and he's got years of track record to prove that.




That said- if the market wants to take his "we are super close for reals this time!" comment seriously and bump the stock up- I'm ok with that

 

[Krugerrand]

Daily OT:

I just charged at a 250 kW Supercharger for the first time and holy crap. I arrived at 14% charge. The speed of a charge is quickly approaching gas station speeds, I had about enough time to find a bathroom and randomly buy a jar of olives at this store and write this post and I'm already about to unplug and go on my way with 80% charge.

I'm trying to imagine anyone trying to even build out a charging network like this much less have 250 kW charging capability in the next 5 years and... Yeah. This is just one of many competitive advantages Tesla has that I just don't see the traditional OEM's being willing to invest and compete in.

That sounds like fun.

*checks grocery list*

‘We need ketchup. I’m going for a short drive to Leamington to get some. You need anything else while I’m out? No? Okay, see you Saturday.’

 

[Krugerrand]

Uh, no, not just in Cupertino. I've used superchargers all over California, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Wyoming, and Colorado. Also, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Vermont. So, limited but varied experience. Enough to know that there are non-trivial issues.

I doubt very much that Maryland and surrounding areas have no problems.

I listed:

But I'm sure that those who don't have home charging have a set of things they would like to see improved about their local superchargers. And people who tow trailers no doubt have another set of issues I know nothing about, It goes on and on.

Yes! All those great things they offer at most gas stations. Oh, wait...

 

[elasalle]

I saw this one yesterday in the orderflow. Strike 2850 with $1.6m premium.

View attachment 562404

Just some house keeping. I had to sell these, and close the calls I had sold at 1500+ Jan 21's. Moving the goalpost. I have Jan 22's(900 -1300 strikes) covering the Jan 21's. This way my Jan 22's stay intact.
Lucky that I was able to manage to do this without loosing any thing.

(Managing loosing position without loosing your shirt is an Art )

(+ getting a lot of Funnies --- I am still up 2.5x past 6 mths even with this approach, like 10X+ alltime )

 

[jerry33]

When you know how the car and the HW3 computer are built and that’s simply not possible. Tesla could make another computer, probably called HW4, and replace all the cars with that. But you’re definitely gonna have to swap that entire board for any substantial upgrade.

My assumption is that swapping the board was what was really meant. Only in the most trivial situations do you just swap out a chip.

 

[dc_h]

I saw this one yesterday in the orderflow. Strike 2850 with $1.6m premium.

View attachment 562404

If someone had bought TSLA last year near the 188 low, you'd be locking in your investment and a possible 15x return. If the stock goes up 50%, you got a nice pile of cash right now. You could buy 8000 shares of MS, get a dividend and ride both stocks. Another interesting aspect, if these are covered calls, you could be in the money for most of the contract duration and the stock could fall for a few weeks and close out of the money.

Selling only one of these contracts on a covered call is a nice downpayment on a new Model Y.

 

[Singuy]

Waymo has level 4 in some of their arizona taxis, with no human driver present.

All their L4 stuff is heavily geofenced though, so it's a very very different approach than Teslas where they're aiming for a much broader application.







What cred?

He promised cross-country autonomous drive by 2017- then 2018- we're still waiting.

He promised enhanced summon release in 6 weeks- it took just under a year and continues to underwhelm almost another year later.

He promised feature complete FSD by end of 2019- now it's end of 2020 maybe.

He promised Robotaxis working and approved by regulators at least somewhere in the world by end of 2020- and that clearly ain't happening either.


I believe Musk on a lot of stuff. He seems to be especially good on timelines related to actual manufacturing for example.

But FSD timelines ain't one of the things you should put any faith in what he says and he's got years of track record to prove that.




That said- if the market wants to take his "we are super close for reals this time!" comment seriously and bump the stock up- I'm ok with that

Elon was actually pretty bad at guessing manufacturing time lines as well. He had famous x amount of Model 3s by end of this and that year he wildly missed. However the tide on his prediction is changing.

Like he said it's really hard to predict a time line on an exponential curve. You can miss it by a mile or it gets ahead of itself. Musk was missing by a mile before and now everything is happening earlier than guide.

I believe autonomy will be similar. It does feel like more autonomy is being incorporated at a faster rate as of late. Also start and stop sign control ends up being better than expected. So who knows about these things. I am not going to point fingers when someone can't hit a bullseye trying to predict on an exponential curve.

 

[Beezer_9]

That sounds like fun.

*checks grocery list*

‘We need ketchup. I’m going for a short drive to Leamington to get some. You need anything else while I’m out? No? Okay, see you Saturday.’

LMAO! I live 10 mins from Leamington.
Been reading this forum for over a year. I really appreciate everyone’s input and expertise. It has paved the way to a beautiful future. Cheers

 

[Krugerrand]

P.S. Non-surprise Credit Rating upgrades from Moody's will be coming at a steady pace after profitability and S&P 500 inclusion is achieved. It's all good!

I bet not re: Moody’s upgrades.

 

[PeterJA]

Thanks for your thoughts. Strictly speaking, I'd still be along with the ride, and in the scenario you describe, I'd still be wealthy far beyond what I'd ever expect to need. The question is whether the regret of losing out on 50% of that potential wealth weighs heavier than security today.

In my philosophy, there's a step change between being financially independent and not. That's a simplification, but it's a simplification I'm confidently operating with. If I was already there from other investments, there would be no question about the decision I'm considering -- I'd definitely not do it, and follow along with your advice. But there's a freedom of mind that comes from being relatively sure that no likely external event can dictate the choices of employment & life I'd have to make, that I think is in a category of its own. I worry about not seizing it when it's there. Losing out on due to bad luck it would be a massive loss that I'd regret greatly.

I haven't actually regretted any of the risk-adjustment stock sales I've made up until now. Yes, I'd be much richer if I hadn't, but they were the right choices at the time, and I would not have been true to myself to do otherwise. So although the dispositions I'm considering here are likely not regret-free, I am fairly sure that I can stand tall and both defend and live well with them in the future.

I'm in the same boat: Coming from the middle-class, I'm not at all accustomed to financial independence, because it is a step change, as you said. But I submit that your mindset has not made that step change.

Of course you want security. But what is a more secure investment than TSLA? For all the reasons you understand, I believe there is NO EVENT that can destroy wealth invested in Tesla, except an event that destroys wealth invested anywhere (e.g. collapse of civilization).

All kinds of events can temporarily drop the price of TSLA, as we have seen. But a drop in TSLA price does not destroy your wealth if you don't have to sell. You still own part of the company, and this company is going nowhere except a multi-trillion-dollar valuation eventually. Folks like Ron Baron don't care about volatility on the way up, because they're selling "not a share" (in Ron's words).

When the virus panic hit in February, I reduced my margin debt so TSLA could drop to $200 again without forcing me to sell. The drop went only to $380-something, so I never had to sweat. Now, with all the good news coming, I believe future drops will go nowhere near that low, so I'm levering up again.

With TSLA, locking in gains is locking OUT gains.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm considering to reduce my TSLA holdings down from the current 50% to 25% of the amount I initially purchased many years ago.

My expectation is still that Tesla will become one of the world's dominant technology companies and retain that position for decades. My initial investment thesis from then still holds - namely that electric transportation will become the world's dominant transport technology, and that the established transportation industry is caught in a classic Innovator's Dilemma which makes them structurally incapable of competing, eventually resulting in their downfall.

Tesla has executed beyond what I had even dared to think in the most optimistic scenario, and the competition has floundered worse. They've done almost all the critical strategic bits right. Still not sold on the SolarCity acquisition, but I have my suspicions that this move averted an obscure liquidity problem that would have been a grave threat to Tesla. The future is looking bright, and Tesla is the only player that shows real credibility for innovating in electric transport and tech manufacturing. I wouldn't be surprised if they're making aircraft in five or ten years. So few companies and capitalists dare to put their money where their mouth is. It's so promising to support such a movement.

With that said, the current stock rally is putting me in a position where I am within arm's reach of my life financial goals, almost a decade ahead of schedule. The freedom that comes from being in such a position might be greater than potentially losing out on having a relatively ridiculous (hey, I'm middle class) ownership stake in tomorrow's greatest tech behemoth.

I am seriously considering to lock in most of those gains and put them in something diversified. It's been years of light anxiety and worry. It's scary to have the finish line in sight.

Dunno how you folks have been managing this situation. Few on this board are independently wealthy, and I notice we've lost a few members over the years of rollercoaster appreciation.

That would be a mistake, but do what you got to do.

Edit: People getting all jittery now after the pre-quilting bee fiasco. So deja vu.

On the record, BIG, HUGE, GINORMOUS mistake. If you need the money, fine. If you don’t, put your big boy short shorts on and let it ride. To date, I have not ever been wrong about money. That’s a really good record. It’s one of my super powers. It’s going to turn out better than you can imagine. Advice, but ask my spouse — nobody ever listens to me and I’m pretty sure it’s because they LOVE hearing me say, ‘I told you so!’