Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[copyhacker]

TSLA buy SQ?

As a holder of a few SQ shares, I’d be more than ok with that.

 

[Nocturnal]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
Tesla Shorts to Amass First-Ever $20 Billion Bet Against a Stock'

Ihor's info was posted earlier but this is getting attention. 20 billion in short interest would definitely add some fuel.

As a holder of a few SQ shares, I’d be more than ok with that.

SQ is my #2 holding right now. (not that this says much)

 

[StealthP3D]

- using excess solar generation to pay for Supercharging or lunch or anything, really
- getting paid by the utilities for excess charge sitting in your car's battery going to the grid
- earning credits towards car upgrades, FSD, Tesla Network rides, even a whole new car

This isn't even taking the Autobidder virtual utility stuff into account.

Starting a whole new economy based on electrons is at least an order of magnitude bigger than anything else Tesla is currently doing, and almost all the pieces are there today.

shhh...we don't want to provide entrenched utilities with an early warning of what's coming their way!

 

[Nocturnal]

shhh...we don't want to provide entrenched utilities with an early warning of what's coming their way!

I've spent my career doing consulting work for Utilities. Trust me, it won't matter.

 

[dww12]

Initially, I just scanned over your text, saw the symbol "NKLA", and assumed the sentence "Buy it and PRETEND you died" had a typo ("pretend" was supposed to be "wished"?)

NKLA was definitely not advice. 100% joke.

 

[diplomat33]

Yes, teslas approach is not only the best, but IMHO the ONLY one that can possibly offer a truly universal solution, and the only one that can produce a really safe solution to FSD.

That's a very bold statement. Waymo already has a proven safe L4 autonomous solution. And Waymo uses deep neural networks too. So how can you say that Tesla is the only one that can produce a safe solution to FSD?

I dont think we will get FSD until end of 2021 at best. But I am 100% certain nobody will beat tesla to it, or even get close.

How do you define "FSD"? Are you talking L4 or L5? Because Waymo has already beaten Tesla to L4 autonomous driving. And many other companies like Cruise are very close to deploying L4 robotaxis as well. That's a pretty bold statement to say that nobody will even come close to FSD when other companies already have proven L4 autonomous driving.

 

[dl003]

If Biden is elected and tax rate raised to 28%, would it affect Tesla's decision of realizing the deferred tax asset? I don't know if the asset will be re-calculated based on the new tax rate which gives Tesla more benefit, $600M more.

 

[traxila]

Confession time...

It's either write this post or perch myself on the window ledge. (Ground floor. Not much good there.) This is the only audience to whom I can bare my tortured soul.

Some years ago, I bought a bunch of TSLA at $200. (I'm not savvy enough to trade options. I'm more comfortable buying and holding long-term when I believe in the strength and vision of a company.)

Through it all I held fast and didn't sell. When TSLA went down to $150 and cries of 'bankrupt' were coming from every talking head on Wall Street, I just smiled and sat tight. I watched the reversal and held on, all smiles, until the pandemic hit. Until it was apparent that the pandemic was going to have a significant impact on the world and the Tesla factory closed.

At that point, I made the dumbest financial mistake of my life to date: I sold all my TSLA at around $750. Not because of any reduction in faith. I was trying to be clever. "There's going to be a dip back to $500-ish range due to the results of the plant closing and the general economic impact," my idiotic brain told myself. "I'll buy back in at that point and have even more shares."

And the downturn never happened.

My wife steadfastly shared my long-term faith in Tesla (which is still unwavering) but she, too, believed that the world's most volatile stock would dip and give us a chance to get back in. So we waited for a dip. And opportunity after opportunity passed us by as we waited for a dip that never happened.

So here we sit. Still sitting on cash that while missing every opportunity to reinvest in TSLA.

I'm absolutely tortured at the horrible decision I made by trying to be clever. My wife is far more zen about it. We locked in profit and she does a better job of focusing on that.

And, though it all, I can't stop beating myself up for exiting at $750. I'm so anguished over this that I can't let it go. I told my wife "I want to punch myself in the face until I'm unconscious, wake up, and do it again."

This is the only place who would possibly understand my pain. All of my friends and family would hear this and say "Oh, you didn't make enough on your TSLA stock and you're sad now. Boo hoo. Piss off."

So now we're faced with a decision: I want to just get back in now at market price and forget about the mistakes of the past and she wants to wait for a dip that may never happen before getting back in.

My belief is that long-term we're looking at $2500 - $3500 in the next three to five years and just jumping back in now is the best thing to do. Trying to be clever is what got us into this mess in the first place and I don't want to make that mistake again. My wife still believes that the world's most volatile stock won't disappoint and we'll see a dip again. Certainly not down to where we exited, but possibly nearer to $1000 or a tad lower.

That's my pain and our current struggle.

Thanks for listening.

Definitely for the first world, but for the privileged few, this is a struggle that impacts mental health when taken to extremes.

Go slow. Buy a taste. Wait for events. Buy some more. Wait for a dip. Buy again. Live with the fact that if you missed some profit, your life will not change dramatically. Look to your wife. She gets it.

It might not be the best strategy financially but based on my experience it will make you feel better.

Next time if you are so certain, buy puts.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Chevron down 4.20% today.

Arctic Sea Ice (ASI) extent down -2.25% today.

ASI is now -4.625% below the record pace of loss (2 days worth) set in the previous all-time record low year: 2012

Today is also an new all-time low for arctic sea ice extent for this date in the melt season. Something to watch this year; expect the annual Summer low ASI by mid-September.

More daily data from the Arctic Data Archive System -
"Arctic Sea Ice Extent": Extent graph or Zoomable Sea Ice Map

h/t to NASA for providing 40-yrs of continuous daily satellite ASI data providing a journal of climate change.

P.S. Can't wait until SpaceX starts providing launch services for NASA's Earth Observing System.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

That's a very bold statement. Waymo already has a proven safe L4 autonomous solution. And Waymo uses deep neural networks too. So how can you say that Tesla is the only one that can produce a safe solution to FSD?



How do you define "FSD"? Are you talking L4 or L5? Because Waymo has already beaten Tesla to L4 autonomous driving. And many other companies like Cruise are very close to deploying L4 robotaxis as well. That's a pretty bold statement to say that nobody will even come close to FSD when other companies already have proven L4 autonomous driving.

Take a Waymo van and drop it in a random US city and we’ll see how “Level 4” they really are.

 

[Silentk]

Take your time getting back in. Do worry that you missed out, but don't rush back in either. Wait for new good prices at which to accumulate. In the mean time you might simply invest in QQQ or an ARK Invest fund. That would give you broad exposure to innovative companies. Many years QQQ has outperformed TSLA and over the last five years ARKK has outperformed QQQ. So what I would do is put a chunk of cash into funds like these and then wait for specific opportunities to buy TSLA or any other company at a bargain. All the best, JHM

Interesting - they are definitely investing in companies with enormous growth potential.

OT - Tasha was talking in the last video I saw about their investment in 3d printing Stratasys SSYS, which is around $15 now, but appears to have peaked at $135 in 2013. Any idea why that was the case? Was 3d printing cool at that point?

Tasha's theory going forward is that ppl will not own personal 3d printers (as was thought a few years ago) but they believe there is a strong future for them commercially eg parts for medical/dental (I think those were her examples) - i guess small parts which need replacing - so they see a strong future.

 

[Nocturnal]

Interesting - they are definitely investing in companies with enormous growth potential.

OT - Tasha was talking in the last video I saw about their investment in 3d printing Stratasys SSYS, which is around $15 now, but appears to have peaked at $135 in 2013. Any idea why that was the case? Was 3d printing cool at that point?

Tasha's theory going forward is that ppl will not own personal 3d printers (as was thought a few years ago) but they believe there is a strong future for them commercially eg parts for medical/dental (I think those were her examples) - i guess small parts which need replacing - so they see a strong future.

I'm not sure about Stratasys in particular (I do own some ARKQ) but Cathy often talks about how many of their companies peaked early on exuberance before it was warranted and now investors are afraid. 3D printing on industrial level seems a no-brainer to me.

 

[The Accountant]

If Biden is elected and tax rate raised to 28%, would it affect Tesla's decision of realizing the deferred tax asset? I don't know if the asset will be re-calculated based on the new tax rate which gives Tesla more benefit, $600M more.

I believe you are correct. The tax asset of $1.9B would increase to about $2.4B.
This would be a one-time benefit as Tesla would likely use up this entire benefit in about 3 years and then thereafter, they would be paying tax at 28% instead of the current 21%.

Said another way....initially, a Tax Increase would not impact Tesla until they have exhausted this tax benefit. The tax increase would likely start to hit the P&L in 2024 or thereabouts.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Jul 09, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "2 ATHs: Close and Intraday Low"

Traded: $16,127,147,987.05 ($16.13 B)
Volume: 11,728,256
VWAP: $1,375.07

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.41%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $258.604B / $170.797B = 151.41%​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 57.5% (53rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 48.5% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.15% of Short Volume (51st Percentile rank)​

Comment: "Tesla is now over 50% more valuable than Toyota Motor by Mkt Cap"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[PeterJA]

Confession time...

It's either write this post or perch myself on the window ledge. (Ground floor. Not much good there.) This is the only audience to whom I can bare my tortured soul.

Some years ago, I bought a bunch of TSLA at $200. (I'm not savvy enough to trade options. I'm more comfortable buying and holding long-term when I believe in the strength and vision of a company.)

Through it all I held fast and didn't sell. When TSLA went down to $150 and cries of 'bankrupt' were coming from every talking head on Wall Street, I just smiled and sat tight. I watched the reversal and held on, all smiles, until the pandemic hit. Until it was apparent that the pandemic was going to have a significant impact on the world and the Tesla factory closed.

At that point, I made the dumbest financial mistake of my life to date: I sold all my TSLA at around $750. Not because of any reduction in faith. I was trying to be clever. "There's going to be a dip back to $500-ish range due to the results of the plant closing and the general economic impact," my idiotic brain told myself. "I'll buy back in at that point and have even more shares."

And the downturn never happened.

My wife steadfastly shared my long-term faith in Tesla (which is still unwavering) but she, too, believed that the world's most volatile stock would dip and give us a chance to get back in. So we waited for a dip. And opportunity after opportunity passed us by as we waited for a dip that never happened.

So here we sit. Still sitting on cash that while missing every opportunity to reinvest in TSLA.

I'm absolutely tortured at the horrible decision I made by trying to be clever. My wife is far more zen about it. We locked in profit and she does a better job of focusing on that.

And, though it all, I can't stop beating myself up for exiting at $750. I'm so anguished over this that I can't let it go. I told my wife "I want to punch myself in the face until I'm unconscious, wake up, and do it again."

This is the only place who would possibly understand my pain. All of my friends and family would hear this and say "Oh, you didn't make enough on your TSLA stock and you're sad now. Boo hoo. Piss off."

So now we're faced with a decision: I want to just get back in now at market price and forget about the mistakes of the past and she wants to wait for a dip that may never happen before getting back in.

My belief is that long-term we're looking at $2500 - $3500 in the next three to five years and just jumping back in now is the best thing to do. Trying to be clever is what got us into this mess in the first place and I don't want to make that mistake again. My wife still believes that the world's most volatile stock won't disappoint and we'll see a dip again. Certainly not down to where we exited, but possibly nearer to $1000 or a tad lower.

That's my pain and our current struggle.

Thanks for listening.

Lots of helpful replies to this gentleman. His question applies to every investor: Buy TSLA now or wait for a dip?

As I said last night, I'm done waiting, and I bought more shares today. Here is my rationale:

I believe Tesla is emerging from corporate adolescence to a new phase of their existence. S&P 500 inclusion is part of it, but not all. Every day, more and more investors are waking up to the stupendous potential of the company. I don't believe TSLA will continue to behave as it has in the past.

We can see a hint of this in its behavior yesterday. A massive media FUD attack was basically ignored, and a massive short attack in the afternoon was instantly bought up. Too many investors now understand that Model Y will smash all competitors, then Cybertruck and Semi will do the same, and Tesla Energy will do the same when battery supply allows, which will be soon. And some doubters of Elon's increasingly adamant FSD predictions are getting less doubtful when they experience the latest Autopilot update. The potential of FSD is so enormous that even if there's only a small chance of Elon being right, ignoring him carries significant risk.

Even mainstream media are now spreading some positive stories:
Tesla appears poised to electrify S&P 500

Of course TSLA could drop hard again from another black swan (earthquake, terrorism, assassination, war). But what are the odds of these happening? Waiting for them seems like waiting to be struck by lightning. I don't believe Corona or its economic damage will drop TSLA hard again. Investors now know that shut-down factories will be reopened and Tesla sales will continue much better than the competition.

Call me a frothing fanboy, but excuse me, this company is historic. There has never been anything like them. They have so many advantages and massive opportunities that remembering them all is not easy. I like Steven's latest summary, including the blitz at the end.

 

[dl003]

I believe you are correct. The tax asset of $1.9B would increase to about $2.4B.
This would be a one-time benefit as Tesla would likely use up this entire benefit in about 3 years and then thereafter, they would be paying tax at 28% instead of the current 21%.

Said another way....initially, a Tax Increase would not impact Tesla until they have exhausted this tax benefit. The tax increase would likely start to hit the P&L in 2024 or thereabouts.

Thanks. So my question is would it make sense for Tesla to save this valuation allowance until the tax rate has been hiked as opposed to right away? Some of us are expecting a huge profit at some point this year.

 

[copyhacker]

Starting a whole new economy based on electrons is at least an order of magnitude bigger than anything else Tesla is currently doing, and almost all the pieces are there today.

Just to expand on this idea a little more: money has always been a proxy for resources under one’s control, which itself is a proxy for energy (classical definition: the ability to do work). Electron flow is currently (heh) humanity's best means of harnessing energy. Once we have the technology to track electrical energy generated, stored, and consumed, we can effectively bypass the middleman of money. First principles.

 

[Nocturnal]

Lots of helpful replies to this gentleman. His question applies to every investor: Buy TSLA now or wait for a dip?

As I said last nigh

My buddy and I trade stock tips and stories all the time. I convinced him to buy into tesla when it was in the 300s this past fall. He did, and sold in the 600s for a nice profit. He often talks about how dumb selling was. I'm not interesting in piling on so I try to be constructive (it was dumb lol). Yes, it would have been better for any of us to buy far more TSLA at $180, $300, or even earlier at lower prices. That's due to hindsight though. Buying at $200 was cheap, but it also came with way more risk than buying at $1300. Back then Tesla could have gone to zero, now that's extremely unlikely and the huge upside estimates are objectively more likely. Heck, you could probably make a good argument that the risk/reward for buying now vs then is better.

 

[jhm]

Interesting - they are definitely investing in companies with enormous growth potential.

OT - Tasha was talking in the last video I saw about their investment in 3d printing Stratasys SSYS, which is around $15 now, but appears to have peaked at $135 in 2013. Any idea why that was the case? Was 3d printing cool at that point?

Tasha's theory going forward is that ppl will not own personal 3d printers (as was thought a few years ago) but they believe there is a strong future for them commercially eg parts for medical/dental (I think those were her examples) - i guess small parts which need replacing - so they see a strong future.

Before Tesla came into my life, I was doing some investing 3D printing. It seemed to have lots of potential, but it just did not take off like all the hype suggested. I was pleased to hear Tasha talk about industrial markets for the tech rather than personal devices (though my teen daughter has one from a summer camp). So maybe the tech is finally getting traction in the applications that make best use of it.

 

[StealthP3D]

Ihor predicts a short squeeze

NKLA & TSLA – EV Short Squeezes – Shortsight.com

As much as I believe NKLA is not worth 10% of their share price, I would never short it. And anyone here who is short NKLA needs to read this:

On July 8th, NKLA shorts paid -$6,510,830 in stock borrow costs on their $390,104,110 position. If we keep these numbers constant and extrapolate these figures forward, in sixty days NKLA shorts would have paid just over -$390 million in stock borrow financing costs. Which means that if NKLA’s stock price remains flat over the next two months, it impossible for shorts to ever make a profit in the trade.

If the borrow costs don't decrease, and NKLA share price remains flat for two months, it's impossible for a short position to make a single penny of profit (even if NKLA goes bankrupt in three months!). Yes, this is written by Ihor who I'm skeptical of but I think the only flaw is that as shorts throw in the towel due to high borrow costs the borrow fees are likely to decline. Still, not worth it.