Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

A question from somebody who has little understanding of anything other than buy and hold (that somebody being me!).

What is the advantage and to whom of holding the SP below $1400?

TIA

Basically, it benefits the Market Makers. For a detailed study see Papafox's thread.

 

[elasalle]

A question from somebody who has little understanding of anything other than buy and hold (that somebody being me!).

What is the advantage and to whom of holding the SP below $1400?

TIA

At a high level, Shorts (who bet against company), Market Makers (who have sold Calls against their stocks) benefit from lower prices.
For S&P inclusion reasons, Funds would want TSLA to be lower when it gets added to the index.

In big picture, Big Oil etc. didn't want SP to just be low, but they wanted Tesla to go bankrupt, as it was a existential threat for them

 

[EdKan]

Basically, it benefits the Market Makers. For a detailed study see Papafox's thread.

Great, thanks for that, I'll explore that thread.

 

[Runarbt]

Doesn't he always?

Actually, he has never (as far I have noticed) predicted a short squeeze. People ask and ask.. is this a squeeze, and Ihor denies it over and over again. Except now.

So I think we should listen carefully this time, this is something new.

Even though shares shorted (<10%) is a all time low, the cost of these short positions are double of what it has been constantly for many many years.

I am very surprised about Ihors article.

 

[dakh]

Confession time...

It's either write this post or perch myself on the window ledge. (Ground floor. Not much good there.) This is the only audience to whom I can bare my tortured soul.

Some years ago, I bought a bunch of TSLA at $200. (I'm not savvy enough to trade options. I'm more comfortable buying and holding long-term when I believe in the strength and vision of a company.)

Through it all I held fast and didn't sell. When TSLA went down to $150 and cries of 'bankrupt' were coming from every talking head on Wall Street, I just smiled and sat tight. I watched the reversal and held on, all smiles, until the pandemic hit. Until it was apparent that the pandemic was going to have a significant impact on the world and the Tesla factory closed.

At that point, I made the dumbest financial mistake of my life to date: I sold all my TSLA at around $750. Not because of any reduction in faith. I was trying to be clever. "There's going to be a dip back to $500-ish range due to the results of the plant closing and the general economic impact," my idiotic brain told myself. "I'll buy back in at that point and have even more shares."

And the downturn never happened.

My wife steadfastly shared my long-term faith in Tesla (which is still unwavering) but she, too, believed that the world's most volatile stock would dip and give us a chance to get back in. So we waited for a dip. And opportunity after opportunity passed us by as we waited for a dip that never happened.

So here we sit. Still sitting on cash that while missing every opportunity to reinvest in TSLA.

I'm absolutely tortured at the horrible decision I made by trying to be clever. My wife is far more zen about it. We locked in profit and she does a better job of focusing on that.

And, though it all, I can't stop beating myself up for exiting at $750. I'm so anguished over this that I can't let it go. I told my wife "I want to punch myself in the face until I'm unconscious, wake up, and do it again."

This is the only place who would possibly understand my pain. All of my friends and family would hear this and say "Oh, you didn't make enough on your TSLA stock and you're sad now. Boo hoo. Piss off."

So now we're faced with a decision: I want to just get back in now at market price and forget about the mistakes of the past and she wants to wait for a dip that may never happen before getting back in.

My belief is that long-term we're looking at $2500 - $3500 in the next three to five years and just jumping back in now is the best thing to do. Trying to be clever is what got us into this mess in the first place and I don't want to make that mistake again. My wife still believes that the world's most volatile stock won't disappoint and we'll see a dip again. Certainly not down to where we exited, but possibly nearer to $1000 or a tad lower.

That's my pain and our current struggle.

Thanks for listening.

Yes, this is tough. I sold some too before COVID thing really started since I (correctly) predicted a widespread panic. And then didn't buy enough back at $400-500 level since I thought it'll drop further. So maybe a good lesson here is to not do such drastic moves? I'm somewhat bummed out that even when I read the situation correctly, just because my timing wasn't perfect I ended up not making much of a gain. If you sold half, and kept the rest, or sold in smaller batches over some period of time, would still be a bummer for sure but nowhere near as bad.

At this point you are just someone with a pile of cash to invest. If you decide to invest in TSLA, do the usual dollar cost averaging over some reasonable period of time, like half a year or a year.

 

[EdKan]

At a high level, Shorts (who bet against company), Market Makers (who have sold Calls against their stocks) benefit from lower prices.
For S&P inclusion reasons, Funds would want TSLA to be lower when it gets added to the index.

In big picture, Big Oil etc. didn't want SP to just be low, but they wanted Tesla to go bankrupt, as it was a existential threat for them

So in other words, everybody except us

 

[Artful Dodger]

ARK's Tasha Keeney initially on Tesla ride hailing. then 3-D printing companies

TD Ameritrade Network - 2 hours ago:

Erm, not sure about your jurisdiction, but around here "offering exposure" is a Class 2 Misdemeanor...

Cheers!

 

[ggr]

Saying they won't because "they would have by now" is complete baloney. That worn out, overused phrase should be banned from the English language. Someone could have said the same thing about EVs being viable a year before Tesla was founded.

The urgency now is higher than it was in 2012. Companies and industries procrastinate just like human beings.

Europe (esp Germany) will not allow its auto industry to die, for several reasons. Simple as that. Same for Japan. Same for ROK.

Not sure what your definition of SE Asia is but I seriously doubt any of them will become a major exporter of autos.

Two economists are walking down the street, and they see a $100 bill on the sidewalk.
They walk on. One says to the other "Was that $100 there?"
Other replies "It can't have been, someone would have picked it up by now."

 

[StealthP3D]

So now we're faced with a decision: I want to just get back in now at market price and forget about the mistakes of the past and she wants to wait for a dip that may never happen before getting back in.

I can't advise you on that except to say there is a reason why I've left what would have been around $6 million sitting on the table when it comes to Amazon. That reason is that I was waiting for 14 years for a dip that never happened (yes, $26 was too expensive in 2006). I'm not kicking myself too hard over that because I didn't start by buying it and then selling it. But it still pains me.

'Nuff said.

 

[SteveG3]

That's exactly how I see it. Disclaimer: I haven't written a line of working code since 1979.

All the "rules based" code, written by all these autonomous driving companies and divisions, will be worth exactly zero. It's worth zero right now, they just don't know it yet (or they would instantly stop development). It will take them years to catch up. The consolation prize is that they should be able to do it faster than Tesla due to more developed neural net technology, more powerful computers, a faster ramp of data collection should be possible (due to not having to rely on data sourced from a single fledgling auto maker) and some tips from employees scalped from Tesla's team to guide their strategy.

thanks for the clear-eyed reply Stealth. by that I mean, your recognizing both Tesla's enormous distance from the rest of the field, and, yet, the real possibility that when they actually have the right alliance with auto incumbents to do this properly, they might move faster than Tesla has for the reasons you ticked off. one nice thing as an investor, we'll be able to see such a shift with vivid clarity, and it will still take years from that point to reach FSD. I say this as there would almost be a major announcement of an alliance (one of which we had within the last month), then the teams taking years to workout such an intensely intertwined project before partnership vehicles start to hit the road, then years for those vehicles to feed enough to the neural net to reach FSD.

 

[elasalle]

Yes, this is tough. I sold some too before COVID thing really started since I (correctly) predicted a widespread panic. And then didn't buy enough back at $400-500 level since I thought it'll drop further. So maybe a good lesson here is to not do such drastic moves? I'm somewhat bummed out that even when I read the situation correctly, just because my timing wasn't perfect I ended up not making much of a gain. If you sold half, and kept the rest, or sold in smaller batches over some period of time, would still be a bummer for sure but nowhere near as bad.

At this point you are just someone with a pile of cash to invest. If you decide to invest in TSLA, do the usual dollar cost averaging over some reasonable period of time, like half a year or a year.

There is a clip on CNBC today (can't link) with Dean of Valuation (Damodaran) saying he sold a while back and left money on the table.
I think you really have to believe in the company enough to stay invested. This is even more true for Tesla. I got out of NFLX(1 day before 1:7) split, AMZN at 300 etc etc. No regrets.
Looking back I think I did not have the foresight on seeing the long term potential in the other companies, and there was nothing in the product or it's CEO that made me excited at that time.
Cheers!!

 

[elasalle]

So in other words, everybody except us

SP wise , likely.
But there are lots of people in the world who are not invested in Tesla nor do they have a Tesla, but want Tesla to succeed, due to EV/Renewable transition. cheers!!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Confession time...

It's either write this post or perch myself on the window ledge. (Ground floor. Not much good there.) This is the only audience to whom I can bare my tortured soul.

Some years ago, I bought a bunch of TSLA at $200. (I'm not savvy enough to trade options. I'm more comfortable buying and holding long-term when I believe in the strength and vision of a company.)

Through it all I held fast and didn't sell. When TSLA went down to $150 and cries of 'bankrupt' were coming from every talking head on Wall Street, I just smiled and sat tight. I watched the reversal and held on, all smiles, until the pandemic hit. Until it was apparent that the pandemic was going to have a significant impact on the world and the Tesla factory closed.

At that point, I made the dumbest financial mistake of my life to date: I sold all my TSLA at around $750. Not because of any reduction in faith. I was trying to be clever. "There's going to be a dip back to $500-ish range due to the results of the plant closing and the general economic impact," my idiotic brain told myself. "I'll buy back in at that point and have even more shares."

And the downturn never happened.

My wife steadfastly shared my long-term faith in Tesla (which is still unwavering) but she, too, believed that the world's most volatile stock would dip and give us a chance to get back in. So we waited for a dip. And opportunity after opportunity passed us by as we waited for a dip that never happened.

So here we sit. Still sitting on cash that while missing every opportunity to reinvest in TSLA.

I'm absolutely tortured at the horrible decision I made by trying to be clever. My wife is far more zen about it. We locked in profit and she does a better job of focusing on that.

And, though it all, I can't stop beating myself up for exiting at $750. I'm so anguished over this that I can't let it go. I told my wife "I want to punch myself in the face until I'm unconscious, wake up, and do it again."

This is the only place who would possibly understand my pain. All of my friends and family would hear this and say "Oh, you didn't make enough on your TSLA stock and you're sad now. Boo hoo. Piss off."

So now we're faced with a decision: I want to just get back in now at market price and forget about the mistakes of the past and she wants to wait for a dip that may never happen before getting back in.

My belief is that long-term we're looking at $2500 - $3500 in the next three to five years and just jumping back in now is the best thing to do. Trying to be clever is what got us into this mess in the first place and I don't want to make that mistake again. My wife still believes that the world's most volatile stock won't disappoint and we'll see a dip again. Certainly not down to where we exited, but possibly nearer to $1000 or a tad lower.

That's my pain and our current struggle.

Thanks for listening.

That's your confession? Please. Half the people here have f'ed up worse than that, I know I have.

I would put it at 50/50 you get an opportunity to buy back in around $850-1050 at some point in the next 18 months. I don't know if you've noticed, but we're "riding a psychotic horse towards a burning stable". Market-wide macro drop of 25% isn't out of the question with TSLA dropping more.

The key is to be ready and have a plan. The very lowest TSLA dips only last a moment. Buy moderately all the way down and then pounce. Leave what's in the past where it belongs.

 

[Unpilot]

Now that I think retirement may be coming sooner than expected I'm taking a big interest in RVs. I'd hate to not have an electric version.I bet the CT could be converted into something like those RV van conversions, though it might look goofy.


Doesn't he always?

There will be a Tesla based RV...I will pull a 5th wheel with my cyber-truck till it shows up.
Then I'm buying that sweet electric dream machine and roll off into the sunset.

In the mean time I put solar on the roof of my Country coach rv.

 

[elasalle]

TSLA buy SQ?

Elon could just write PayPal 2.0 in his free time

 

[hershey101]

Guess who's back....

How many months before Fisker goes bankrupt again?

$FSKR $SPAQ

Exclusive: Electric car maker Fisker eyes deal to go public

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ripe for reinvention.

Ripe for disruption. But you don't just need an AI to operate the robots on an assembly line for aviation. You need that AI to fill out the PAPERWORK! FARs/CARs/JARs... what a quagmire of regulations!

That's why Elon said it takes 10yrs just to get a new product approved for airworthiness, before you can begin selling anything. Until then, you don't have a business (side dig: NKLA). Talk about a high barrier to entry!

Cheers!

 

[Jack6591]

Confession time...

It's either write this post or perch myself on the window ledge. (Ground floor. Not much good there.) This is the only audience to whom I can bare my tortured soul.

Some years ago, I bought a bunch of TSLA at $200. (I'm not savvy enough to trade options. I'm more comfortable buying and holding long-term when I believe in the strength and vision of a company.)

Through it all I held fast and didn't sell. When TSLA went down to $150 and cries of 'bankrupt' were coming from every talking head on Wall Street, I just smiled and sat tight. I watched the reversal and held on, all smiles, until the pandemic hit. Until it was apparent that the pandemic was going to have a significant impact on the world and the Tesla factory closed.

At that point, I made the dumbest financial mistake of my life to date: I sold all my TSLA at around $750. Not because of any reduction in faith. I was trying to be clever. "There's going to be a dip back to $500-ish range due to the results of the plant closing and the general economic impact," my idiotic brain told myself. "I'll buy back in at that point and have even more shares."

And the downturn never happened.

My wife steadfastly shared my long-term faith in Tesla (which is still unwavering) but she, too, believed that the world's most volatile stock would dip and give us a chance to get back in. So we waited for a dip. And opportunity after opportunity passed us by as we waited for a dip that never happened.

So here we sit. Still sitting on cash that while missing every opportunity to reinvest in TSLA.

I'm absolutely tortured at the horrible decision I made by trying to be clever. My wife is far more zen about it. We locked in profit and she does a better job of focusing on that.

And, though it all, I can't stop beating myself up for exiting at $750. I'm so anguished over this that I can't let it go. I told my wife "I want to punch myself in the face until I'm unconscious, wake up, and do it again."

This is the only place who would possibly understand my pain. All of my friends and family would hear this and say "Oh, you didn't make enough on your TSLA stock and you're sad now. Boo hoo. Piss off."

So now we're faced with a decision: I want to just get back in now at market price and forget about the mistakes of the past and she wants to wait for a dip that may never happen before getting back in.

My belief is that long-term we're looking at $2500 - $3500 in the next three to five years and just jumping back in now is the best thing to do. Trying to be clever is what got us into this mess in the first place and I don't want to make that mistake again. My wife still believes that the world's most volatile stock won't disappoint and we'll see a dip again. Certainly not down to where we exited, but possibly nearer to $1000 or a tad lower.

That's my pain and our current struggle.

Thanks for listening.

I don’t make mistakes. From time to time, however, I do make gigantic, enormous, blunders.

Experience like yours is invaluable. Put it to work. I’ve every confidence that you will prosper.

 

[vikings123]

Confession time...

It's either write this post or perch myself on the window ledge. (Ground floor. Not much good there.) This is the only audience to whom I can bare my tortured soul.

Some years ago, I bought a bunch of TSLA at $200. (I'm not savvy enough to trade options. I'm more comfortable buying and holding long-term when I believe in the strength and vision of a company.)

Through it all I held fast and didn't sell. When TSLA went down to $150 and cries of 'bankrupt' were coming from every talking head on Wall Street, I just smiled and sat tight. I watched the reversal and held on, all smiles, until the pandemic hit. Until it was apparent that the pandemic was going to have a significant impact on the world and the Tesla factory closed.

At that point, I made the dumbest financial mistake of my life to date: I sold all my TSLA at around $750. Not because of any reduction in faith. I was trying to be clever. "There's going to be a dip back to $500-ish range due to the results of the plant closing and the general economic impact," my idiotic brain told myself. "I'll buy back in at that point and have even more shares."

And the downturn never happened.

My wife steadfastly shared my long-term faith in Tesla (which is still unwavering) but she, too, believed that the world's most volatile stock would dip and give us a chance to get back in. So we waited for a dip. And opportunity after opportunity passed us by as we waited for a dip that never happened.

So here we sit. Still sitting on cash that while missing every opportunity to reinvest in TSLA.

I'm absolutely tortured at the horrible decision I made by trying to be clever. My wife is far more zen about it. We locked in profit and she does a better job of focusing on that.

And, though it all, I can't stop beating myself up for exiting at $750. I'm so anguished over this that I can't let it go. I told my wife "I want to punch myself in the face until I'm unconscious, wake up, and do it again."

This is the only place who would possibly understand my pain. All of my friends and family would hear this and say "Oh, you didn't make enough on your TSLA stock and you're sad now. Boo hoo. Piss off."

So now we're faced with a decision: I want to just get back in now at market price and forget about the mistakes of the past and she wants to wait for a dip that may never happen before getting back in.

My belief is that long-term we're looking at $2500 - $3500 in the next three to five years and just jumping back in now is the best thing to do. Trying to be clever is what got us into this mess in the first place and I don't want to make that mistake again. My wife still believes that the world's most volatile stock won't disappoint and we'll see a dip again. Certainly not down to where we exited, but possibly nearer to $1000 or a tad lower.

That's my pain and our current struggle.

Thanks for listening.

I admire that you shared your story, not many people like to admit that they made a mistake. The one lesson I have learned is not buy everything at once or sell everything at once. You always want to have a target number of shares in mind at different buying points. In your situation right now It’s always tempting to pull the trigger due to FOMO. Our friends in shortsville will always give you an opportunity but time maybe running out.

The only way I see us dropping to pre 1100 levels is if we see another plant shutdown due to Covid19. We do have a couple of gaps to fill but given the momentum I don’t know if we ever fill those. Maybe wait for a down macro day next week to buy back in. Not advice. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

Given that there are so many longs and institutions that don’t want to let go their shares, even the MMs will likely look to squeeze the shorts. That along with the highly likely S&P inclusion is like a perfect storm. I’m personally looking forward to the next couple of weeks.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

There is a clip on CNBC today (can't link) with Dean of Valuation (Damodaran) saying he sold a while back and left money on the table.
I think you really have to believe in the company enough to stay invested. This is even more true for Tesla. I got out of NFLX(1 day before 1:7) split, AMZN at 300 etc etc. No regrets.
Looking back I think I did not have the foresight on seeing the long term potential in the other companies, and there was nothing in the product or it's CEO that made me excited at that time.
Cheers!!

The number of people selling versus the number of people hodl’ing is huge. Heck, for all the millions of shares bought yesterday, today and tomorrow there is a seller. Hodl’ing isn’t easy, as the gains, and the accompanying dreams, can (and often do) vanish as fast or faster than they came. It takes a very strong conviction to sit still during those drops. My brother, who owns 420 shares (not kidding), solves this problem by never looking at the share price (although he found out what the stock price was last week as it was all over the news; he wasn’t unhappy).