Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dgodfrey]

This is only true under the assumption that all charging is done at fast charging stations. In reality most people, will use slow chargers where they park their car, work, home etc. Basically 90% of the revenue of a gas station is gone because people will slow charge majority of their driving needs. Electricity is 1/3 cost per mile compared to oil; therefore roughly 97% of gas station revenue is gone excluding merchandise sale. This is the reason I believe third party superchargers are not growing as fast. They need a gigantic fleet to break even. The cost of a supercharger must be included in the cost of the car. This where the business model is fundamentally different from oil/gas station. For traditional OEMs, this is a chicken and egg problem. Unless they sell huge number of EV cars, they cannot embark on building a gigantic network of fast chargers and they do not want to sell a large number for EVs.
I believe this is why Tesla started building Superchargers themselves because they realized that in the new EV world an OEM will also have to provide charging needs. Remember, a supercharger costs substantially lesser than a gas station.

OT
Can't speak to the OP but my read on that wasn't contingent on the bulk of charging would need to be done outside the home to justify fast charging at convenience stores can be profitable. Granted, the vast majority of charging is done at home but there is still a huge market of away from home charging as supercharger use demonstrates.

There's a financial incentive for Sheetz and WaWa and Stewarts (convenience stores that sell gas as a lure) to transition to fast charging. If nobody used the fast chargers at these locations as you're argument seems to lead, then you would be correct. However, it's irrelevant where most charging is done if enough of it is done away from home where you are required to use public/private charging.

I believe his point was purely time based loitering at a captive necessity with temptations that after 30 minutes, that corn dog's been calling my name long enough. If I pay at the pump and can't leave the pump while pumping, gas sales that convert to corn dog sales are probably quite rare.

Where I think the public charger network has a huge disadvantage is a number of things:

1. Fractured players vying for a small segment of drivers
2. Disfunction of software and hardware due to numerous manufacturers specs all independent of each other, i.e. lack of homologation
3. Outside of the EA penance, third party providers are not a charity. Decisions are made based on profitability either now or sometime in the future. Locations are not based on how best to serve the customer
4. Related to 3, eventually, the promulgation of DCFC could end up similar to how gas stations evolved. You could have one on each corner of a busy intersection with a guy in a chicken suit waving you to come in cuz corn dogs are 2/$1 on Tuesdays. This adds to the head count of portals but doesn't add any value to interstate traveling where it's needed most.
5. Peak demand charges destroy the business model. Using battery storage, some are realizing the only way to expect any profitability is to lessen the demand charges with battery and even better, solar along with it. Tesla is much better positioned to pull this off.
6. Two way communication between charging stations and car. Tesla rules at this because they control the entire ecosystem.
7. Vehicles with peak charging rates of 55 kW bogarting a station while the Taycan has to wait an hour for his 15 minute fill up.

The second part of your post I mostly agree with though.

 

[Mo City]

Huge amounts of targeted political expenditures will ensure he is re-elected and the GOP keeps the Senate.

Doubtful, but I'll say this: The election is going to tighten up and be closer than a lot of people think. There will be sweating before it's over. Anybody thinking Biden will win by 10 points is living on Fantasy Island.

 

[Tslynk67]

High-quality manipulation so far today, if they take their finger off the button and a bit of FOMO sets in, could be interesting.

 

[viridi]

Ever since the 10:00 a.m. pushdown, whenever TSLA goes above $1,485, a large sell order gets placed at $1,486. It is pulled as soon as TSLA goes below $1,485. Max Pain happens to be $1,485 today.

 

[Nocturnal]

I just cracked the source code that the MMs are using for Tesla.

Line 10 If TSLA > $1485 then sell else line 20
Line 20 If TSLA < $1480 then buy else line 10

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Guess we should all just look on the bright side and be glad the macros didn't take the market down hundreds...just another ho hum friday it is shaping up to be. Can't wait for Monday

 

[Rb48888]

I'll probably deleverage and convert all my options to shares around $2,500, give or take a few $100.

For @FrankSG, or others with similar plans to convert from options to stock, IF we see a large move due to Battery Day and/or S&P inclusion, are you setting orders ahead of time, in case of a sudden spike?

I was planning to do so today, but I'm unsure of how a quickly changing IV might affect my options price targets.

I would guess that rising IV might lag behind a sudden rise in share price.

If SP spikes hard, a standing sell order could be the ticket. But, if the SP rises and holds, then I'd imagine IV might continue to push options prices higher, for a bit, until the options market adjusts and the SP finds a new resting point.

Like Frank, I measure my success in number of long-term shares held (rather than cash value), so a significant bump in IV AFTER I converted to shares could be sad, as would be waiting for IV to rise during substantial profit taking.

I think, for now, I'll probably just set sell orders for half of the positions I'd plan to convert to shares, and keep a close eye on the rest.

Is anyone else in a similar position with thoughts on how IV might impact their conversions from LEAPs to Stock?

 

[LN1_Casey]

Model Y on the front page of Tesla.com again.

 

[willow_hiller]

Model Y on the front page of Tesla.com again.

Interesting order. As the page appears for me now it goes:

1. Model Y
2. Model X
3. Model 3
4. Model S
5. Solar panels
6. Solar glass
7. Accessories

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Credit: @chuntichino on twitter

 

[ZachF]

TSLA be like:

 

[Gilesmiles]

Someone described my exact method of earning a steady income by harvesting the theta decay using a margin account (selling puts around the current strike price, in my case with plus500, increasing my position around the mmd) some weeks ago. Have been trying to get friends and family to use this method for months but have been failing big time. Don’t know if it’s dedication, experience or something else. Somehow they always chicken out and close with a loss. Have been making a steady income of tens of thousands per month doing this since Jan ‘20. Have any of you been trying to get friends to get on the train and succeed?

Plus500 is a cfd broker which only sells monthly options by the way. But the benefit is they sell them per 1 instead of 100 shares per option like my regular broker IB/Lynx

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Model Y on the front page of Tesla.com again.

They've also made a couple minor tweaks over the past week or so to the ordering pages:
1) 20" induction wheels no longer available on perf Y (boo! I was going to order that)
2) 19" carbon wheels no longer available on LR+ S (didn't check perf version)

 

[LTC_RRR]

Try https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/999999999720004329/filename1.pdf

It just says we don't get to find out until August 2023

I knew it! It is that cursed Exhibit 10.1

 

[LN1_Casey]

They've also made a couple minor tweaks over the past week or so to the ordering pages:
1) 20" induction wheels no longer available on perf Y (boo! I was going to order that)
2) 19" carbon wheels no longer available on LR+ S (didn't check perf version)

I was just stalking the Performance S, they're gone there too. Just the two options now for wheels, 21" and 19" new capped ones.

 

[Zero CO2]

What China says and what it does doesn't always match up.

When the Chinese economy started slowing they quietly curtailed their plans to cut coal usage, and now coal usage is at all-time highs. CO2 production is also at all-time highs.

In fact, I think China was responsible for all of the world's growth in CO2 emissions last year.

The US on the other hand has coal usage and CO2 emissions in steep decline.

Not sure where you are getting your US data it looks like EPA site has not been updated since 2018 ... maybe i am missing something but i am not surprised there is not updated data with our current leadership ... Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data Explorer | US EPA

 

[dl003]

TSLA be like:

Imagine what KO holders must have felt like for the last 20 years. Bunch of psychopaths, I bet.

 

[juanmedina]

Someone described my exact method of earning a steady income by harvesting the theta decay using a margin account (selling puts around the current strike price, in my case with plus500, increasing my position around the mmd) some weeks ago. Have been trying to get friends and family to use this method for months but have been failing big time. Don’t know if it’s dedication, experience or something else. Somehow they always chicken out and close with a loss. Have been making a steady income of tens of thousands per month doing this since Jan ‘20. Have any of you been trying to get friends to get on the train and succeed?

Plus500 is a cfd broker which only sells monthly options by the way. But the benefit is they sell them per 1 instead of 100 shares per option like my regular broker IB/Lynx

Do you mean mini options? Interesting. How much are the fees?

 

[ZachF]

Not sure where you are getting your US data it looks like EPA site has not been updated since 2018 ... maybe i am missing something but i am not surprised there is not updated data with our current leadership ... Greenhouse Gas Inventory Data Explorer | US EPA

Analysis: Global fossil-fuel emissions up 0.6% in 2019 due to China | Carbon Brief

"The growth of global emissions in 2019 was almost entirely due to China, which increased its CO2 output by 0.26GtCO2. The rest of the world actually reduced its emissions by -0.02GtCO2, thanks to falling coal use in the US and Europe, as well as much more modest increases in India and the rest of the world, compared to previous years."

China is literally responsible for all of the global CO2 emissions growth last year.


Coal usage is collapsing in the US, and oil is flat-ish.

None of this has anything to do with Trump/leadership though.

 

[Gilesmiles]

Do you mean mini options? Interesting. How much are the fees?

no fees but it’s cfd’s so their businessmodel is a difference between buy an sell, example of prices for this moment attached