Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

After reflecting on your answer, I have thought of an interesting question....

What is your view on Tesla eventually selling 20 Million vehicles per year?

My guess is you haven't modeled that far into the future.

It's certainly one possible outcome of many but, you're right, I don't try to guess that far into the future and it's not necessary to look that far into the future to give it it's current valuation.

 

[JustMe]

It's late in the evening, so I'll repeat what I write about once every two years here.

Native anglophones in particular should learn the difference between lose and loose.

FYI —> *I am losing my mind*

Let loose dank memes
O’er losers who spew FUD
Spread the word ->
Elon’s a mercurial stud

Loosen your lips
O witty Tesla peeps!
Oil’s a cruddy fuel, for
Sedans ‘n trucks ‘n jeeps!

End transmission

 

[Off Shore]

FYI —> *I am losing my mind*

Let loose dank memes
O’er losers who spew FUD
Spread the word ->
Elon’s a mercurial stud

Loosen your lips
O witty Tesla peeps!
Oil’s a cruddy fuel, for
Sedans ‘n trucks ‘n jeeps!

End transmission

Reported for poetry. Good poem, though.

 

[Mike Smith]

Fredtrek has an interesting development I hadn’t seen mentioned yet.

Tesla is involved in the development of a smartwatch, but why? - Electrek

Could be as simple as the smartwatch company wanting its watches to be able to interface with Teslas, and Tesla being game for that.

I did some digging - Xplora developed a gaming platform with Sony called 'Offline2online'. Think Pokemon Go type games. I think Tesla is developing Elon's 'Tesla Punchbuggy' game with Xplora. Could possibly be played on Xplora's watches, Tesla's screen, or both.

 

[Criscmt]

Well smart people here will tell you indeed that the time to buy LEAPS is when IV gets crushed. I think they have some tools that indicates this, maybe their broker show it on their options-chains, I don't know, but I have no idea where to see it. However, as I have a range of calls in my trading account, and I check it regularly, I can see the changes reflected in the % up/down and yes, right now LEAPS are down, so a reasonably good time to buy.

Otherwise I'm just using feeling/common-sense/belief, call it what you will. Example: In early March, just before C19 struck, the SP was trading around $750 having pulled-back from the February highs. Seemed to me that the stock wanted to go higher, so I bought 4x Jan 21 $875's for $14k each, total cost $56k. Of course then we got the C19 dip and their value was massacred down to 15k, did I panic and sell, hell no, obviously it was going to rebound at some point and having 10 months still to run is the beauty of LEAPS. In fact close to the bottom of the C19 dip I sold my 100 trading shares at $465 and bought 10x Jun 2022 $1400's for $44k total cost - sold those 3 weeks later for $120k, when the SP had risen to $700ish and then started selling puts with the capital, netting $5-$10k per week for a while.

As for the Jan 21 $875's - they went ITM in June and I sold for $108k, so roughly double the money, waited an hour for a dip, then bought 4x June 22 $1250's for the same premium (know as rolling), thus dramatically reducing the risk. Obviously those calls are now ITM and the current Ask/Bid is around $650, so they're worth nearly 3x (so 6x original investment overall).

If the SP goes $4k or above before June 2022, those 4 calls (original price $56k) will be worth $1m+, roughly 3.5x more than the appreciation of common stock had I bought that instead.

So yeah, buy LEAPS on the big dips, basically, then roll them to less-risky strikes/dates. Not advice, of course, always a chance you'll lose your premium.

As for the 10x Jun 22 $1400's, well I should have held onto those, they're now worth $575k, and this is my second biggest take-away with LEAPS, don't sell too soon, of if you must, just sell half, because they appreciate like crazy...

Thanks.
On the puts, what were the strikes and expiry dates you sold them at?
Did you ever consider debit spreads?

 

[Criscmt]

Although TSLA has been a bit slow, call premiums are still high. Taking advantage of this in spreads, the short leg (higher strike call) can finance a disproportionate amount of the long leg (lower strike call).

Earlier this week, I placed call spreads that are partially ITM. If TSLA remains flat, these will profit > 50%. If TSLA goes up just $15-20, profit >100%. If TSLA falls below the low strike, the trade loses everything.

The trade is like a loaded coin that flips heads 70% of the time. You wouldn't want to wager your house on a single flip, but placing many of these trades should average out with a nice gain.

I usually favor option trades that expire further out (presumably Tesla goes up over time). However, this reduces ROI so I tried spreads with near term expiration (2-3 days). Examples from Tue/Wed when SP was around 1480-1485:

Paid $4.70 for 6Aug 1470/1480 call spread (buy 1470c, sell 1480c). Max profit 112%, or 100% if SP = $1480.
Paid $48 for 18Sept 1400/1500 call spread (buy 1400c, sell 1500c). Max profit 108%, or 77% if SP = $1485.

When the SP changes, I'll open new positions if the call premiums still make it worthwhile.

Not advice.

How do you go about finding these? Which ones if any did you buy last Friday or Today?
The breakeven on your long call is something you expect to be below the share price by that date.
On the calls in your post I am quoting, what position changes did you have to go with?

 

[Criscmt]

Which entity/entities are you referring to here with "other humans in their ear who have more to gain or lose"?

Because I think it's also a common misconception that index funds have a lot to gain in this. Their main concern is how well they can track an index, not the performance of an individual index. Not that TSLA's inclusion could possible have this large of an effect, but if the S&P 500 performs poorly, at worst people who have their money in Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund will move it to some other Vanguard index fund.

Who else would benefit from keeping TSLA stock price low? Shorts and the oil industry, but I doubt they are going to be able to influence TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion significantly.

Market makers? Doubt it. Maybe TSLA option sellers benefit the most when the price is flat, but they should be delta neutral most of the time, so perhaps they actually profit the most when there is a lot of option activity, such as during a wild S&P 500 inclusion. I don't think we can say conclusively that option market makers benefit from suppressing any stock price increase as a result of S&P 500 inclusion, or that they would care enough to try and influence it.

The only entity left is benchmarked funds. It's possible that a large number of benchmarked funds want to buy a significant amount of TSLA at a good price, but then why wouldn't they just buy now as soon as possible while the price is still $1,500? If a benchmarked fund buys before other benchmarked funds, it'll benefit from the buying that comes after from other benchmarked funds. And all benchmarked funds will benefit when index funds buying drives up the price even further later.

But most importantly, how would any entity even go about manipulating TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion and keep the stock price suppressed? We're talking about 26M shares that will need to be owned by index funds, likely more by benchmarked funds, and only discounted by the extent to which the inclusion has thus far been front-ran. Good luck convincing current investors to part with 26M+ shares at a discounted price.

This post isn't meant to argue that stock price will 100% increase as a result of S&P 500 inclusion, although I think it probably will. It is meant to argue that I don't believe TSLA can be manipulated in a way to suppress what would've otherwise been a significant increase in stock price as result of inclusion. The forces in play are just too large.

Are you saying the stock is NOT being manipulated to be in certain range by any player(s), and all the price action since the last 2 weeks is just natural market forces?
With the stock no more in the narrow range around ~1500 since last Friday the price action perhaps is just natural market forces?

 

[SpaceCash]

Now that sentiment on this board has subsided to a sort of begrudging acceptance that share price will slow-bleed until Battery day, I bet you we blast off this week

 

[Criscmt]

I have a feeling THEY will do this to get a large amounts of retail buyers to jump in and then THEY will jerk the rug out and take all for a ride. We just don't know what week that will be but it will be one that is massively profitable for them. There will be a week coming soon where Monday and Tuesday will be quite a bit down. Probably timed for an announcement that people also expect to cause a rise.

Looks like you got it right, and will be even more right if tomorrow/Tuesday also turns out red.

 

[printf42]

Now that sentiment on this board has subsided to a sort of begrudging acceptance that share price will slow-bleed until Battery day, I bet you we blast off this week

Jinx
I blame you for the €6 drop in TL0.F

 

[FrankSG]

Are you saying the stock is NOT being manipulated to be in certain range by any player(s), and all the price action since the last 2 weeks is just natural market forces?
With the stock no more in the narrow range around ~1500 since last Friday the price action perhaps is just natural market forces?

I'd say it's a combination of the natural market forces of options/delta hedging, and some manipulations.

The post you quoted was about S&P 500 manipulation, and how I don't believe the committee members are being manipulated, nor that a rise in stock price due to inclusion can be manipulated away.

 

[Lessmog]

It's late in the evening, so I'll repeat what I write about once every two years here.

Native anglophones in particular should learn the difference between lose and loose.

Agreed. But if you mean @ByeByeJohnny, I'm not sure he is such a native. (Nor am I btw)

 

[Quesder]

ok, I think my thoughts I can represent half of the TSLA retail traders. The SP for the past two weeks are really boring and disappointing. Looking at all the other stocks, Apple, AMD, ... KNDI, NKLA (well, maybe not this one), NIO, Rocket... I want to move my money out of TSLA and go after them now.

But, I have too many shares, and the tax is huge. I sit in TSLA too long that my legs are numb and cannot move.

 

[Lessmog]

I think he's making a big mistake if he thinks his participation will help Shiskabob's case. The optics are terrible.

It would be VERY interesting to see what discovery digs up about the septic Montana and his role! I might even buy the book ... that will be thrown at him

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Reflex Funds has two long threads on 4D autopilot and staff limitations to FSD

https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/status/1292888592784789506
https://twitter.com/ReflexFunds/status/1292891381229379585

 

[StealthP3D]

ok, I think my thoughts I can represent half of the TSLA retail traders. The SP for the past two weeks are really boring and disappointing. Looking at all the other stocks, Apple, AMD, ... KNDI, NKLA (well, maybe not this one), NIO, Rocket... I want to move my money out of TSLA and go after them now.

Go for it!

 

[Steve m]

It would be VERY interesting to see what discovery digs up about the septic Montana and his role! I might even buy the book ... that will be thrown at him

I was thinking that Musk's lawyers will subpoena Montana and drag him through the mud...

As one lawyer friend who specialized in depositions described himself.... I am a professional a$$hole

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks.
On the puts, what were the strikes and expiry dates you sold them at?
Did you ever consider debit spreads?

I've only ever sold weekly puts, typically on wed/thu/fri for the expiration the week after. During the weeks where the SP trades side-ways, I would sell close to the money, not minding too much whether they were exercised. I'd be looking for premiums around $5k and would typically rebuy them for 95% profits - if the SP is flat then time-value destroys them in the final week.

TBH I wish I was doing the same now, but I went all-in on LEAPS and October calls, can only wait to see how it pans-out.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now that sentiment on this board has subsided to a sort of begrudging acceptance that share price will slow-bleed until Battery day, I bet you we blast off this week

This is where your assumptions let you down. I arrived at my current sentiment on July 31st, when TSLA didn't find enough support to hold the Mid-BB (moving to the Lower-BB was just a question of 'when'). I don't share every conclusion I make. People on this board have all the tools and information to make informed decisions for themselves.

Now, even big shareholders who are interested in accumulating want the SP to go down. They won't fight hard to make it go up when shortzes are giving away free money. The signal, as always, will be when volume swings back to the heavy side. I'll be watching post-Labor day; this Market loves to jump the gun, and Bty Day could be a plump 3 wk run-up in advance. Throw in a likely S&P announcement during that run, and it'll be "well howdy". Q3 P&D numbers will be out just 7 trading days after Bty Day. Then a blow-out Earnings Call 3 wks after that.

For now in these doldrums, we are but poor lost sailors cast adrift on the Sea of Opportunity.

Cheers!

 

[WarpedOne]

Now that sentiment on this board has subsided to a sort of begrudging acceptance that share price will slow-bleed until Battery day, ...

Our situations vary but my situation is such that I will start being uncomfortable when SP again goes under 200.
As long it is still at four digits (in USD, EUR, AUD or CND) I don't have a single minuscule reason to begrudge about ... gimme another beer!

If it only tanks under 8xx call me a buyer!