Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Jack6591]

I am not superstitious by nature, but I saw this today and thought...that’s an omen.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Well, I'd posit that most of us here are INVESTORS; you appear to be a trader. That's fine.

I doubt that most here are investors. Most of the chatter is about day to day moves and various gambles. Me, I'm mainly an investor, but usually via options for leverage, so things expire and I close out one position and open another fairly regularly. And in addition to my core position I am always fooling around at the edges for amusement.

If you're good, then it's far removed from gambling . . . but if you're not, well, I'd be wondering if you ever sat down and just compared your current portfolio to where you would be today if you had just HELD every share you ever purchased?

No, it's never all that far removed from gambling. There are probabilities, and you can win or lose. And the market can stay irrational....

If I had just held on to all those AAPL shares I had when I retired almost ten years ago (and never touched TSLA), I think my portfolio would be about double what it is now. Of course it's hard to normalize for money taken out to live on, and taxes paid and such so that that's a rough approximation. But I would have missed out on a lot of fun. And I never would have bought a Model S (too expensive).

I'm sure there is more than one early TSLA "trader" on this thread driving around in a 7-figure Model S. This is unfortunate.

Advice: DON'T BE ONE OF THEM.

No, that's wonderful. It's true of investors in every long term successful stock. Being one of them is having a cool story to tell.

p.s. Yes, we've owned nine MS's so far, but we never sold a share of TSLA to buy anything. If anything, buying so many MS's made us realize our investments in TSLA were too low so they served a very important purpose! Hence, we financed them all through our CU at low interest rates, sometimes under 1%. (When money is on sale, buy money!)

And I've bought all my cars for cash. So what? Do what works for you. It pleases me to have spent less for my vehicles than you spent for yours.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Excellent post and a wonderful tribute to some of our best posters (for as long as we had them).

TL;DR version: Do NOT sell ANY shares to buy anything. You'll end up like one of our previous posters here that sold shares to buy a Model S years ago--it ended up being a nearly 7-figure Model S because of how much the shares have grown . . . .

Suggestions:

1. Strongly consider continuing your investments in TSLA and simply borrow against your holdings--never sell the actual assets. This a generation-transforming asset as the value of TSLA in the decades ahead is hard to quantify exactly, but it is likely to be equivalent to deep five-figures per share (accounting for splits, of course). There is just way too much going on at Tesla to list here, but they are just getting started. (Given the massive inefficiencies and general stupidity in a typical new home, and too much current ignorance that the true cost of a house isn't just PITI--it's PITI and Utilities--a new division of Tesla, Tesla Home, is something that will be a reality within the next five years, maybe less. It's a massive, untapped market.)

2. You're on a wonderful path towards a reduced carbon future, but if you look at the total picture, you'll also want to "de-gas" your entire home. We're doing that now, replacing our two gas water heaters with electric unit; furnaces come next--going to electric heat pumps. (All tie-in well with our PV Solar array, which we plan to upgrade to a solar roof soon as we need a new roof anyway due to hail damage.)

3. If you're not there already, learn that a whole food, plant-based transition is necessary too. See: COWSPIRACY: The Sustainability Secret

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Congratulations on your excellent investment choices, but remember we're still in the first few innings: DO NOT SELL any shares!

Definitely not parting ways with any shares for many years given all the catalysts Tesla has in the foreseeable future & it's fun just to be on the team & enjoy the journey. I look forward to a food revolution comparable to the electric transportation revolution as one of the other big things that needs to happen to further reduce green house gas emissions. Plant based meat substitutes are an important step in that direction given the carbon intensity of the domestic livestock industry but even plant based solutions have nontrivial GH emissions because they require maintaining large tracts of arable land in monocultures that negatively affect habitat & biodiversity, so the better long-term solution may be synthetic meats grown in laboratories if that technology can be developed to the point where the public finds it sufficiently palatable.
But even then, I'll always prefer the real thing, so will continue to fill the freezer with elk, deer, and antelope I hunt on public lands in the West. Once i can drive on sunlight to accomplish that annual task my circle will be complete. While out there riding the range in the Cybertruck, I'll be an ambassador spreading the Tesla gospel amongst the unwashed masses of redneck hunters, trying to convert a few hearts and minds...

 

[tinm]

Is this still the crazy, grossly ill-informed impression most people have? So sad.

This link below is INACCURATE as I believe Tesla reduced the price of the Model 3 after it was written--so the Tesla is even LESS expensive than the Camry:

Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry — 5 Year Cost of Ownership Comparisons.

I was talking to an old high school friend today and the topic of Tesla came up and I mentioned I traded in my 2013 S this summer for a new 2020 S, then I rattled off all the fantastic improvements including 400mi range. All she wanted to know was price. When I said it was in high 70s I could tell it was “case closed” for her: EVs are impossibly out of reach for middle class people. So I launched into the “whoa the main car Tesla makes is the 3, sells orders of magnitude more than S” and that it starts in the 30s and is wreaking havoc on Prius, Camry, Accord, 330i, etc sales. She knew nothing about Model 3 and you could tell this was requiring effort to undo a belief system about Tesla she’d no doubt formulated over years. I find this to be quite a common thing among ordinary folk who don’t hang out on TMC...

Funny thing is, if you step back and take a 50,000 foot view of Tesla’s website, you realize it isn’t aimed at my friend. Tesla assumes you are already sold and just need the order button.

 

[jhm]

What price range do people think TSLA will trade in on Monday? I'm thinking $400 to $440.

 

[woodisgood]

What price range do people think TSLA will trade in on Monday? I'm thinking $400 to $440.

This Monday?? That would be a short’s wet dream.

Still got another week before we see triple digit prices.

 

[jhm]

This Monday?? That would be a short’s wet dream.

Still got another week before we see triple digit prices.

So what's your price range?

 

[StealthP3D]

The third party claims that they will release an update to by-pass Tesla's detection in a week or two. It will be interesting to see how this game of cat-and-mouse ends. (Probably in a law suit.)

Before a minor lawsuit I think the hackers will get "Musked" and be too stumped to continue.

 

[Rockster]

Utter idiocy. I've bought all my Teslas using money made by trading TSLA. Absolutely the best way to do it. I don't regret spending anything. What a loss it would have been to make more money instead of enjoying owning the cars.

I disagree. I’d much rather keep my investments where they are and use my credit union’s money (at 1.95% for my most recent Tesla). Compared to what I make in the market, a 1.95% cost is trivial.

 

[MP3Mike]

Well JP Morgan Chase has no idea what a 'legal proxy' is or how to provide it to me. They just keep pointing me to the standard shareholder meeting documents... It will be interesting to see which brokers provide the necessary document to be able to participate in the virtual shareholders meeting...

 

[printf42]

I thought about the theory of naked shorts would be forced to cover.

But, even if that’s true, they could just borrow shares for the weekend and make the balance legitimate shorts, right?

Unless, the balance is larger than shares available to borrow?

 

[FireMedic]

Or just finance it...for my new Model S I chose to finance @ 2.49%. I can make more than 2.49% with that $$.

that’s how I first end up with my original tesla shares. When we bought our model three I sold my pick up truck and decided to buy tesla shares with all that money Instead of doing what I thought would be the responsible thing and paying for the car in full at the time of delivery.
35K at $235 SP. The 3% that I’m paying Wells Fargo to borrow money doesn’t even register in comparison to my TSLA gains. In fact I took profits at $900 SP with the plan to pay cash for our model X. But when the stock price dropped back to 400 I decided to reinvest it all and now I could buy a roadster if I wanted to!

 

[StealthP3D]

My gut feel is that the SP is likely to peak in early October for the year. My rationale is below - would love to hear what folks here think as well:

1. Effect of split on SP will continue till after the split i.e 1st week of Sept.
2. S&P500 announcement would be sometime in early Sept. If it doesn't happen in Sept, then we will need to wait till Nov/Dec after 3Q ER comes out. The SP may take some hit if S&P500 announcement does not happen in Sept, but the next two items will help it recover in that case
3. Battery day may provide some boost to SP in the week after Sept 22. I am saying 'may' because it is not always that MMM recognizes the value immediately
4. P&D numbers for 3Q come out October 2nd. I am expecting Tesla will blow all estimates out of the water. This will provide a nice boost to SP.
5. Not much expected in terms of news after that till ER later in the month, likely on Oct 28. After that would be election time, would prefer to have some risk off the table during that time
6. This brings us to weeks of October 5th and 12th as likely consolidation weeks before ER.
7. So my plan is to target week of October 5th to sell off the call options. Will not sell the shares, but will consider CCs with strike prices 50% above whatever the SP is then.

Would love to hear what folks think of this strategy and reasoning.

My first impression of that strategy is the reasoning is far too logical, rational, speculative and detailed to have any hope of playing out that way. If it does, it will luck more than anything. Trying to time the market in the moment is a crapshoot but trying to time it weeks in advance is even less certain. If you need to lighten your position you probably shouldn't speculate too many weeks (or even days ahead). It should be based more on the state of your portfolio and action taken when it's time to take action. Otherwise there is a high probability things won't go the way you planned.

The question of when to sell should be focused more on individual needs, not trying to figure out in advance when the highest price (in the short-term) will be reached (because that is rarely successful). I can see waiting a day or three at a time if you think the stock is on a roll that isn't about to end, or waiting until you think it's time (or a bit past time), but not trying to plan an exit weeks in advance based on expected share price behavior due to known events (like battery day, S&P announcement and shares splitting). Share price movements are simply not that predictable and tend to not be correlated very well to events that are largely already expected by the market.

 

[FrankSG]

I thought about the theory of naked shorts would be forced to cover.

But, even if that’s true, they could just borrow shares for the weekend and make the balance legitimate shorts, right?

Unless, the balance is larger than shares available to borrow?

True, which is why I'm not sure how likely it is.

However, the reason that some of them are naked short might be exactly to avoid borrow fees. It might be that at least some of them prefer to cover over having to start paying borrow fees.

It might also be interesting to look at how TSLA borrow fees behaved over the past week and a half. I'm not sure where to find that data myself.

 

[StealthP3D]

Investors, particularly long term investors should have more faith in open and transparent markets. I can't see any viable way of sustaining manipulation long term which doesn't merely compound losses.

Remember, we are talking about market makers doing the manipulation. They are using their special MM privileges to churn (long and short) while manipulating the price in a direction and time that lends itself to a favorable outcome (for themselves). I have no doubt they can make a lot of money while doing this.

 

[printf42]

True, which is why I'm not sure how likely it is.

However, the reason that some of them are naked short might be exactly to avoid borrow fees. It might be that at least some of them prefer to cover over having to start paying borrow fees.

It might also be interesting to look at how TSLA borrow fees behaved over the past week and a half. I'm not sure where to find that data myself.

They would only need to borrow for 2-3 days, then cover those and open naked shorts again.

Inhor is reporting 0.3% borrowing fee for TSLA as always, I don’t remember any time recently it was not 0.3%

 

[PeterJA]

It depends on what they announce. If it's new chemistry, sure. But if they massively ramp battery capacity, especially if they multiply out by average car/powerwall/megapack selling price or contrast to the battery capacity known to be coming online for GM/VW.... that could be an obvious enough benefit for even the unenlightened.

Not to mention if they reveal the Plaid or a S/X refresh or anything like that. New products are shiny.

Plaid is definitely coming on Battery Day, says my secret decoder ring.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1292997808576819200

 

[Mich]

Does anyone knows how RNA microfactories actually work? what technology and what know how are they using for it? Can there be some synergy to nano tubes?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I wonder if Elon knows he's going to need to make a lot more Roadsters since he has singlehandedly minted enough new Teslanaires to fulfill demand for first production run already.

 

[pz1975]

Amazing thing about Tesla/TSLA is how little the average person (even smart people) knows about the company. We are spoiled here. This website is literally worth billions of dollars of stock appreciation gains. Not a joke. There is no other stock with such an intelligent, knowledgeable group of investors that willingly share their knowledge for free. Seriously this is a once in a lifetime stock and online presence and I thank you. I would not have had the conviction and confidence in this company without you. To quote Napoleon Dynamite, you have made all my wildest dreams come true.