Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sofie]

So how did my predictions made two weeks ago turn out? I'd say they were amazingly accurate. If only I had listened to myself I would be significantly richer! Using current prices, then we were at 410, and now we're at 418 (or 391 after hours).

To recap my original prediction from 8/23 (see above for the literal version):
8/24-28: prediction -- continued rise, but less than earlier; actual -- 8% rise, compare to 49% since split announced
8/31-9/4: prediction -- down from 442.68 by maybe about 56, so down to around 390; actual -- closed at 418.32, 391 after hours
Additional prediction on 8/28:
8/31: prediction -- we'll be up first on Monday morning unless macros get in the way; actual -- up strongly in the morning, up more later

So, since I got it all so right, how did my portfolio do? Not bad, considering we're close to the same stock price (2% higher at the close) we were then and I'm up about 4%. However, since I peaked at up 35%, you would think I could have done better. But... my better judgment deserted me and I wrote puts this week despite saying I didn't think a weekly bet would be a good idea. So it proved. If it weren't for losses on that trade I would be up 11% instead of 4%.

The smart thing I did was turn two of my long call positions into spreads on Monday morning. This reduced my losses this week, such that I am up 4% rather than 2% compared to two weeks ago.

Anyway, my portfolio was much happier at close on Monday as opposed to today (as no doubt are most longs), but I'm also happy to head into the next month without reducing my current position. We have an awful lot of good news coming soon. But, in the name of sanity (and keeping my wife happy) I won't be increasing my exposure either.

New prediction: Down Tuesday morning due to no positive inclusion news (unless we get such before then). Within the coming week we will see S&P 500 inclusion, after many of the front-runners have sold out. Probably Wednesday or Thursday after hours. I think the tech sell-off has largely run its course and we'll see a bounce-back starting Tuesday.

So I suspect that (unless we get inclusion news before then) a short put written after the Tuesday dip will be quite profitable. I would write puts for 9/11 expiry and if inclusion hasn't been announced by Thursday I'd roll them to 9/18 expiry. I'd write them about 80 points above the current price, going for profit from the price rise rather than premium. I am hoping I have the discipline to not do this, as I'm sufficiently exposed as it is.

A warning: I pay no attention to technical analysis. So if you believe in that stuff, ignore my predictions (ignore them anyway if you like). I'm posting this mostly to publicly document my thoughts so that I can be held accountable. I continue to notice that those using TA are very happy to predict the past and say how it was all obvious, but the future not so much. Of course, we can all do that.

Well your predictions may just be spot on for next week.
So you truly think there’s a chance we can still be announced as being added next week? Interesting thoughts! Thank you.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I don't want to see anyone disappointed but personally, I'm a little relieved.

It's the whole essence of Tesla that they don't need validation from anything mainstream. If they don't take Tesla in, they can't throw Tesla out, which they would do gleefully, at the drop of a hat.

It seems that the blessing of mainstream investors is the kiss of death for a positive innovator. I trust Tesla to continue on its own path. The old school and all its poor values will wither away in time.

Unless S&P committee comes out and just says we're not adding tesla EVER.....then this ongoing inclusion speculation is never going to end. So unless you enjoy watching the stock rollercoaster on a daily basis, this needs to end already. All the S&P committee is doing right now is encouraging gambling

 

[Dutchie]

Anyone else got the feeling that battery day is being over hyped?

 

[Off Shore]

Named after my mother on the fifth 84 years ago.

But spelled like an Amurican, as Kennedy used to say.

¡feliz cumple, profe! ¡ya quieremos pastel!

 

[Bet TSLA]

Well your predictions may just be spot on for next week.
So you truly think there’s a chance we can still be announced as being added next week? Interesting thoughts! Thank you.

I think it's much more likely that the S&P committee will announce TSLA inclusion when it damn well pleases than that they will choose to ignore their own guidelines and leave it out entirely (for now). And I think they will prefer to do this during the rebalancing time so that funds are messing around once rather than having to do so again later. But there's no certainty, which is what makes this a market.

Can't see that it makes any difference to buy and hold investors though, just gamblers.

 

[ZsoZso]

I’m going to sell my S&P500 index funds in protest. I want this inclusion crap to be over.

And put the $$$ into TSLA.
That's the way to beat the index. Lots of fund managers struggle to outperform S&P500, even though it is very easy, just buy TSLA

 

[Sofie]

I think it's much more likely that the S&P committee will announce TSLA inclusion when it damn well pleases than that they will choose to ignore their own guidelines and leave it out entirely (for now). And I think they will prefer to do this during the rebalancing time so that funds are messing around once rather than having to do so again later. But there's no certainty, which is what makes this a market.

Can't see that it makes any difference to buy and hold investors though, just gamblers.

I’m more just angry because I knew they deserved this inclusion, for the little it’s worth. But for me and my goals, it means very little.

 

[CanadaEV]

Unless S&P committee comes out and just says we're not adding tesla EVER.....then this ongoing inclusion speculation is never going to end. So unless you enjoy watching the stock rollercoaster on a daily basis, this needs to end already. All the S&P committee is doing right now is encouraging gambling

I suppose Tesla could say they prefer not to be part of the index, unless the index publishes a clear set of guidelines about inclusion. That would be a reasonable position to take, partly for the reasons you've cited.

 

[Mokuzai]

I suppose Tesla could say they prefer not to be part of the index, unless the index publishes a clear set of guidelines about inclusion. That would be a reasonable position to take, partly for the reasons you've cited.

Then what was the purpose of the $5B possible-under-Tesla-terms raise? If it wasn't for S&P this really confuses me.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I’m more just angry because I knew they deserved this inclusion, for the little it’s worth. But for me and my goals, it means very little.

It’s not over until .... well.... you know the rest. I do not Feel sorry for the speculators that bailed without truly understanding that this does not in any way changes $TSLA”s fundamentals or growth.

 

[Stretch2727]

I suppose Tesla could say they prefer not to be part of the index, unless the index publishes a clear set of guidelines about inclusion. That would be a reasonable position to take, partly for the reasons you've cited.

I don't think Tesla has any say in whether it is in the index or not as long as it is a publicly traded company.

 

[CanadaEV]

Then what was the purpose of the $5B possible-under-Tesla-terms raise? If it wasn't for S&P this really confuses me.

That looks like a brilliant move to go around a capital raise, but keep all their options open.

They did a significant raise after the Q1 earnings call, just before the pandemic started taking effect. They had said there was no need for more capital, but no one could predict the pandemic, so better safe than sorry.

Now we are heading into respiratory illness season, and the pandemic could get nasty again, so this may be insurance to keep flush and avoid delays with the factories.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Following Tesla is like following Lost. As soon as one mystery is resolved, 2 more are revealed.

 

[sonofjorel]

Why would the S&P choose to announce the addition of Tesla AH on Tuesday rather than today AH? If the reason is partially to avoid a crazy European market while the US market is closed for two European trading days (Monday and Tuesday in Europe) then wouldn't a Tuesday AH announcement still give Europe a full trading day before the US gets to trade? If that's a consideration then maybe the best time to announce inclusion would be pre-market at 6:15am in the US to give first dibs to Tesla's home market. The addition of Tesla is unique due to its sheer size and expectation so maybe the committee will make a unique announcement. Has there ever been a pre-market announcement?

 

[CanadaEV]

I don't think Tesla has any say in whether it is in the index or not as long as it is a publicly traded company.

Of course you are right. But the committee might not like including a company that has expressed reservations about how they operate, and have said they don't want to be part of it.

The S&P likes to be the one calling the shots, with no oversight.

 

[UCF3]

For a HODLER, this is a non-event. If one is going to play the short-term game, this is an opportunity to maybe reconsider your game plan.

Inclusion will provide a short spike in the SP that will fade over a couple weeks sure, but inclusion is a big deal for HODLERs because of the continuous buying pressure that 401Ks and IRAs create

 

[Navin]

Hahaha
SEC.gov | SEC Announces Charges Against Standard & Poor’s for Fraudulent Ratings Misconduct

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hahaha
SEC.gov | SEC Announces Charges Against Standard & Poor’s for Fraudulent Ratings Misconduct

Jeez. Seriously. Are ALL these people corrupt?

 

[Bet TSLA]

Hahaha
SEC.gov | SEC Announces Charges Against Standard & Poor’s for Fraudulent Ratings Misconduct

Wow! Misdeeds from 6-9 years ago, likely having made them orders of magnitude more $ than the paltry settlement amount ($77M total). Cost of doing business. Will just encourage more flouting of the rules.

Jeez. Seriously. Are ALL these people corrupt?

When the rules include "and there's maybe a small fine for cheating" that's interpreted as "go ahead and ignore this rule if it's to your advantage". They don't think of themselves as corrupt.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Wow! Misdeeds from 6-9 years ago, likely having made them orders of magnitude more $ than the paltry settlement amount ($77M total). Cost of doing business. Will just encourage more flouting of the rules.

I can understand Musk's regret about going public. Having to operate in this cesspool.