Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Sorry but Elon silence or no silence doesn't mean diddly squat here. Based on the exact terms of the offer, Tesla took the chance with terms that said they chose to issue shares at market price on any specific date instead of doing a traditional offering at a set share price. By doing that and announcing they've issued at all the shares now, it means they've had to issue at shares at anywhere from 20-35% decline to what they could have gotten by doing a traditional offering at 480/share.

The rasing the cash isn't why I'm saying tesla got played. Its the terms they used for the offering. Absolutely no reason to do those terms unless you think theres a catalyst about to happen in the matter of days

Basically Tesla tried to speculate along with everyone else. S&P could still add now that all the speculators have left.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I am okay with 326 but since that person wanted to know what the floor is and according to computer algro 326 is a pretty hard floor

Don't know where you got 326 from, 50-D Moving Avg was 330 at the Open. We came within $6 at the intraday low, but for less than a minute.

 

[Nocturnal]

More buying pressure for Tesla solar/batteries incoming. 172k in CA have their power shutoff due to the fires. Bonus that climate change is likely making these fires larger and more common.

I'm still confused as to what GM is gaining from this deal. Is a drawing of the badger worth 2 billion?

Sorry but Elon silence or no silence doesn't mean diddly squat here. Based on the exact terms of the offer, Tesla took the chance with terms that said they chose to issue shares at market price on any specific date instead of doing a traditional offering at a set share price. By doing that and announcing they've issued at all the shares now, it means they've had to issue at shares at anywhere from 20-35% decline to what they could have gotten by doing a traditional offering at 480/share.

The rasing the cash isn't why I'm saying tesla got played. Its the terms they used for the offering. Absolutely no reason to do those terms unless you think theres a catalyst about to happen in the matter of days

I don't see any other explanation. Why risk downside unless you were super confident in near term upside?

 

[xhawk101]

Thoughts on the Nikola & GM marriage?

Competition is good. May legitimize NKLA some but need some adult, honest leadership.

And batteries from where?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well they probably would have a harder time getting a secondary in the middle of a squeeze because if sp at 480 was fundamentally driven then we wouldnt be at 360 today. Most people here thought the rise was some kind of stock split euphoria from major tech companies trapping weak longs.

So I'm glad Tesla got in front of the inevitable profit takers and got some free money.

Then don't do the offering

I have yet to see one valid reason as to why tesla needs 5 billion on top of the 9.3 billion they already have....especially needing 5 billion over the rest of 2020.

A 500 share price will easily be justifiable by fundamentals in a matter of month. Come on people, the tesla team doesn't always need to outsmarting everyone else. They played it well with the stock split. But they got played here.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Aug china sales are quite a bit lower than I was hoping for

China is a big place. They do the 'wave' there too with deliveries. Aug production went on trucks to the furthest out deliver centers. Wait til Oct. for the quarterly numbers. Logistics is complicated.

Prod. is way up, that's all the matters. The Gov't will see that every last Model 3 is sold with a combination of incentives and the 'stick' (read ICE cars not getting licence plates in cities).

 

[jkirkwood001]

Sorry but Elon silence or no silence doesn't mean diddly squat here. Based on the exact terms of the offer, Tesla took the chance with terms that said they chose to issue shares at market price on any specific date instead of doing a traditional offering at a set share price. By doing that and announcing they've issued at all the shares now, it means they've had to issue at shares at anywhere from 20-35% decline to what they could have gotten by doing a traditional offering at 480/share.

The rasing the cash isn't why I'm saying tesla got played. Its the terms they used for the offering. Absolutely no reason to do those terms unless you think theres a catalyst about to happen in the matter of days

I think Elon's got much more important things on his mind these days than the SP - which was already "too high" in his words many multiples ago. The current share price is no longer any impediment to his mission (no talk anymore of Tesla going bankwupt, and they're flush with cash), therefore a low priority.

 

[Todd Burch]

Thoughts on the Nikola & GM marriage?

Competition is good. May legitimize NKLA some but need some adult, honest leadership.

And batteries from where?

My thoughts:

Trevor: Nice job with that vertical integration! No better way to vertically integrate than to team up with a dinosaur!

Hydrogen is a dead-end. Toyota already discovered this. Apparently GM hasn't quite figured it out yet.

The problem with hydrogen fuel cells is physics. The science doesn't make sense for the application. You can't throw money at a problem to change the science.

 

[saniflash]

unfortunately my IBKR interface fails to show IV rank/percentile (some bug probably).

are options still expensive? considering to lever up here with some ITM mid-term or long-term options (Mar 2021+). looking at the IV diagram shows that e.g. Mar 21 300 CALL is now 87%, has been ~92% a week ago, but, ~75% a month ago.

anyone any ideas for levering up "cheaply"?

or does someone have a good tip for a website that shows option chain incl. IV rank/percentile?

thanks in advance

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

China is a big place. They do the 'wave there too with deliveries. Wait til Oct. for the quarterly numbers. Logistics is complicated.

Prod. is way up, that's all the matters. The Gov't will see that every last Model 3 is sold with a combination of incentives and the 'stick' (read ICE cars not getting licence plates in cities).

I'm very much aware of the logistics and the production cycle of getting cars across China. Im one of the people that always defends when someone posts "concerns" about a individual monthly sale.

Having said all that, 11k is still disappointing for how much giga China is supposed to have ramped production by now and even a huge 3rd month, which is to be expected, will still have Q3 China numbers come in well below what I thought they would have done.

Its not disastrous or anything. Just have to dial back my expectations for Q3

 

[ZsoZso]

Solving The Money Problem's reaction to Rob M. vs GJ "debate"*:

* more like GJ shouting session to stop Rob from embarrassing him any more

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

I'm still confused as to what GM is gaining from this deal. Is a drawing of the badger worth 2 billion?
?

Perceived relevance.

 

[amolina]

unfortunately my IBKR interface fails to show IV rank/percentile (some bug probably).

are options still expensive? considering to lever up here.

or does someone have a good tip for a website that shows option chain incl. IV rank/percentile?

thanks in advance

Very expensive. Short term IV lingering around 150%

 

[elasalle]

Then don't do the offering

I have yet to see one valid reason as to why tesla needs 5 billion on top of the 9.3 billion they already have....especially needing 5 billion over the rest of 2020.

A 500 share price will easily be justifiable by fundamentals in a matter of month. Come on people, the tesla team doesn't always need to outsmarting everyone else. They played it well with the stock split. But they got played here.

The sale was completed by EOB Sept 4th, that was before the SEC announcement right?

 

[woodisgood]

Thoughts on the Nikola & GM marriage?

Competition is good. May legitimize NKLA some but need some adult, honest leadership.

And batteries from where?

My thoughts are I’m looking forward to GM producing NKLA’s renders at GM-speed with approximately a 30% premium over TSLA’s offerings.

 

[Nocturnal]

Perceived relevance.

Just shows how poor their thinking is. That 2 billion could have been used to actually build things.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Any thoughts on whether the circuit breakers may trip on this movement? I was expecting some breaks at 5/10/20, but I had forgotten that they don't trip in the first 15 and last 25 minutes of trading.

There's a website that posts the definative status of the Uptick Rule for every single Equity traded in New York. Shouldn't be too hard to find, or maybe somebody here as a link handy?

TIA.

 

[vikings123]

unfortunately my IBKR interface fails to show IV rank/percentile (some bug probably).

are options still expensive? considering to lever up here with some ITM mid-term or long-term options (Mar 2021+). looking at the IV diagram shows that e.g. Mar 21 300 CALL is now 87%, has been ~92% a week ago, but, ~75% a month ago.

anyone any ideas for levering up "cheaply"?

or does someone have a good tip for a website that shows option chain incl. IV rank/percentile?

thanks in advance

IV has reached ATH levels. Most of the options until October have an IV of 145%. Yep crazy high.

The beat value imo is still leaps.

 

[dl003]

To play devil's advocate, considering I'm now well deep into the "never gonna happen" camp:
SP wanted to add TSLA but saw lots of risks.
Instead of waiting till next quarter, it suggested TSLA do an offering to beef up the balance sheet and give the SP some assurance
In the process of doing so, TSLA flushed out all front runners and speculators
TSLA will issue more stock when inclusion happens this week to ease buying pressure, if needed
"We must get past the Great Filter" -> TSLA must go through a filter to get rid of all the short term gamblers.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The sale was completed by EOB Sept 4th, that was before the SEC announcement right?

Yup, but the stock was trading in mid to upper 300's on Thursday and Friday of last week. I'd put money on the average being around 400 for all the shares issued throughout the week