Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JusRelax]

I start to doubt that battery day will bring in anything special.
The reason is that there is a ceiling set by Elon: the battery density that makes Electric airplane might be achieved in FOUR YEARS.
So what could happen this coming 9/22? I hope it will not be the already known 1Million Mile battery; that will cause the SP to crash again.
What else do you think it will be?

If anything, the $5Bil raise makes me more excited to find out what will be revealed at battery day. I could definitely see a $5bil raise being related to significant battery production breakthroughs, which they want to leverage but requires new capital-intensive infrastructure.

 

[dl003]

No more room. Never gonna happen camp was a one-man tent shared by about three of us. Get off my mountain!

I'm sure we can work the logistics out. Are we talking about 3 cats? 1 cat and 2 humans? What are we talking about here?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sure, 25k in September is not physically impossible, but that kinda completely negates the argument that the reason for the August delivery numbers was logistics, which are “difficult”. In other words, why go for a 25k units/month push when deliveries could have been so much smoother throughout the quarter? What is the factor that caused the low number in July and August, and is that factor no longer in play in September?

Heavy production ramps always throw logostics and efficiencies out of whack. There is a lot of truth to, say tesla makes 10k more vehicles from month 1 to month 2, at some point they have to get all of those vehicles out to the farthest reach of their delivery network. So its going to create a gap between correlation of production and delivery. That gap can easily span over a 2 months period because they say, they increase production by another 10k from month 2 to month 3....well now they've created another gap.

I would expect that after having a quarter where you grow from say 2k/week to 4.5k/week, its going to take a another full quarter to even out monthly deliveries. At some point deliveries should be more evenly spread out since they're not exporting to other countries yet.

Having said all that, I still would have expected Sept numbers to be in the 15-17k range

 

[LN1_Casey]

My apologies in advance if this turns into a slugfest, but can anyone make sense of the latest threat from Trump toward companies doing business in China? Why is he crashing the market just before election?

He's angry and lashing out. The election campaign isn't going as well as his last one, and so he's pressing all of the buttons he's done before to try and rally his base. Unfortunately for him, such things are not working out like the first time and it's only hurting his base.

Also, probably childishness about how he'd rather burn the country down than let a democrat get it instead of him.

 

[Krugerrand]

Expect the unexpected.

Enjoying this season of Big Brother, huh?

 

[lafrisbee]

Ugh the complaints from some on how this board changes a persons original post's meaning is quite true. I never said I had a issue with the offering. Simply offered my view of the TERMS and how the situation has unfolded

$5,000,000,000 is a lot of money when you write it out.
When I read Tesla was going for another $5,000,000,000 I thought it might drop the stock because I wasn't sure of the finacial dynamics surrounding the stock; all the hedging, and shorting, and MM stuff? I had no real idea of who else was out there that wanted to buy TSLA.
IF Tesla offered $5,000,000,000 in stock at an "elevated" price, and all the stock did not sell quickly then the SP would be down much more than now.
I feel as though it was prudent for Tesla to do the raise the way they chose. If the demand was not there then it would not have been seen by the market.
The thing is there was enough demand for Tesla to feel comfortable raising the $5,000,000,000 at whatever price they got.
And I am OK with that...happy actually. Now I wait for Battery day to hear why.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My apologies in advance if this turns into a slugfest, but can anyone make sense of the latest threat from Trump toward companies doing business in China? Why is he crashing the market just before election?

Jared bought Puts?

 

[jhm]

I, for one, would prefer Tesla not to be included in the S&P. Tesla does not need inclusion. S&P needs Tesla inclusion to stay relevant. Tesla does not need passive index fundholders as investors. It does far better with high conviction active investors who care passionately about the company and its mission. Active investors buy and sell based on how the company executes on its vision. Passive investors don't know, don't care; buying or selling has practically nothing to do with what Tesla accomplishes. So why do we get so excited about passive investors? They are just along for the ride. It's the active investors who really matter for long-term value appreciation.

Tesla is still the ultimate outsider stock. Time for investors to get back to accumulating TSLA shares for the long run. The S&P is utterly irrelevant.

I'm back in accumulation mode.

 

[Krugerrand]

So please, I want to be convinced here

No, you don’t. Whatever. I’ll just remind you that you don’t have all the information. You’re speculating and if you repeat it enough, like so many other speculations (*cough* S&P inclusion *cough*) it might just turn into fact.

 

[Unpilot]

Tbh this seems like the most direct answer s&p has said no thus far

An S&P Global (SPGI) spokesperson declined to comment of the reasons Tesla wasn’t included, saying, “the committee takes into account several factors such as sector balance and size representation.”

This is a fine example of why EM should tell the spoon to go pound sand.

Look at the words and try and make sense of them...you can't...this is wall street goblygook.
Elon does not speak this language.

Tesla's size is growing faster than most here can imagine (and collectively we can imagine a lot)...and sector balance...ha ha good one Mr. corporate speak.

Game set and match fellas.

I'm still buying.

 

[Krugerrand]

Boy....i can't wait till we go back to the 'happy days are here again' starting when the 5:1 split was announced to the run up to $500+....things were a lot easier back then

Right?! Whomever said money changes people clearly wasn’t referring to anyone in this room.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

My apologies in advance if this turns into a slugfest, but can anyone make sense of the latest threat from Trump toward companies doing business in China? Why is he crashing the market just before election?

Because then, “only he” can fix it.

This is a legitimate concern, though. Our contentious relationship with China could affect Tesla directly, even if not from a tariff standpoint. It certainly affects them indirectly, by destabilizing global markets and putting pressure on supply chains. Straddling the countries can be an uncomfortable position.

The China-related risk may not be the same for Tesla as for, say, Apple, but we can’t pretend it doesn’t exist. Tesla has to contend with enough headwinds without Dear Leader wrecking the global economy too.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, China is a big place, but most of the customers for a luxury sedan are not too far from Shanghai. The “wave” made sense in July, but we’re 2/3rds of the way through the quarter, and Tesla announced a capacity of 200k/year at the end of Q2, so we should be closer to 16k units per month, or at least 15k. At that rate, Tesla would need to deliver over 25k units in September to justify that production capacity, which is more than double their August deliveries. Something doesn’t add up, and we shouldn’t simply dismiss it.
Whether it’s insufficient demand for the exact product mix on offer, waiting for different variants, waiting for govt. incentives, whatever it is, we should understand it. But dismissing it doesn’t help.

The SP is so good now, if you would just say the word for me —

 

[Artful Dodger]

If anything, the $5Bil raise makes me more excited to find out what will be revealed at battery day. I could definitely see a $5bil raise being related to significant battery production breakthroughs, which they want to leverage but requires new capital-intensive infrastructure.

We already have a floor for capital efficiency on new battery lines: Panasonic is adding 10% capacity at GF1 for about $100M, so that's 10% of 35GWh/yr or about that much new annual capacity for a billion dollars. Ergo, $5B buys just 175GW/hr capacity at Panasonic levels of capital efficiency. Does not include the buildings. Telsa needs 2000/175 = 12x that amount of cell capacity.

This isn't it. Panasonic is old tech, which will continue to be upgraded incrementally, but its not the revolutionary tech Tesla needs. That's new tech,

Roadrunner is it's first prototype new tech line. Expect rapid iteration at GF Texas. It all begins on Sep 22.

Buckle up.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Who else here thinks we close in the green today? .....ok...never mind.....me neither.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

No, you don’t. Whatever. I’ll just remind you that you don’t have all the information. You’re speculating and if you repeat it enough, like so many other speculations (*cough* S&P inclusion *cough*) it might just turn into fact.

Never did I say I had all facts or information. I gave my opinion of the terms of the offering and how the events unfolded. Its quite honestly a bit disturbing how the last few pages have gotten twisted into something else but it is what it is.

Again I'm fine with this topic dying. For someone that follows investments based on fundamentals, these past 6 months have been a compete waste of critical thought process.

 

[Unpilot]

The SP is so good now, if you would just say the word for me —

 

[lafrisbee]

In terms of whether I feel good about purchasing TSLA:
I bought the stock January 30, 2020 hoping that it would grow fast enough to pay for a new 2 motor cybertruck and pay off the mortgage to the house. Right now it still as to drop another 30% for that goal to be realized...except even then the total amount of the stock will be enough for me to get the tricked-out 3 motor cybertruck.
But still having had the stock for 8 months I now realize that greed has somehow become a part of me. And I like it.

 

[Joesantelli]

I feel sick seeing tesla down 15% and Nikola up 50%


Meh good luck to all I guess we had our run up I guess it's them in the spotlight for a bit

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm sure we can work the logistics out. Are we talking about 3 cats? 1 cat and 2 humans? What are we talking about here?

I can be bought. Make an offer, just don’t waste my time. I feel the demand share counter restarting and I don’t want to miss a single post.