Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Yuri_G]

WTF? Guys we are not NKLAQ. Lets not trust any report published by short sellers as they are known to distort truths and create FUD. I refuse to be part of that. As Elon said, let the market decide on fuel cell.

Nikola has had red flags going up since its inception. This report lays out a good case for long term fraud, unlike what the shorts have claimed for Tesla. Zero products produced and lots of money raised with many people burned. Not a good look for fledgling EV companies. If it's true, good riddance.

 

[humbaba]

with respect to the Tesla API outage: apparently the service has not been suspended, but some traffic is not making it for one reason or another. When I checked the linked reddit someone reported still having access from the personal computer. So it is unlikely that this is either a fix for a security issue or a multi-factor authentication upgrade.

While service issues like this may not be bread-and-butter for investing, I think that -- to date -- Tesla has a good record for aggressively fixing problems when they are identified. And that is relevant to investing. This specific incident, going by the reports on reddit, is not relevant (more of a purely operational matter) so I will cease posting about.

 

[mrmage]

Bought some calendar spreads. These consist of buying a call with a later expiration date and selling one with a closer expiration. When the near call expires, its time value is 0 and only the later call is left. The profit is the time value of the later call minus the cost of the spread.

Here's the trade:

Sold Jan 2022 700c
Bought Jun 2022 700c
Cost $17

Assuming current volatility, I estimate profit for different SPs in Jan 2022 to be:

SP $370, profit is 50%
SP $500, profit is 250%
SP $700, profit is 700%
SP $1000, profit is 300%
SP $1400, profit is >100%

If IV crashes in Jan 2022, this will reduce the profits a lot or cause more losses. Otoh, Jan 21 is right around earnings, so IV shouldn't be too low. Not sure at what point SP loses money, but probably between $300 to $350 for the $700 strike.

If you think TSLA is most likely to be something other than 700 in Jan 2022, replace the strike with that.

Caveat: First time I've bought calendar spreads, so definitely not advice.

 

[kengchang]

Evan Horetsky
Head of Engineering, Procurement, Construction Gigafactory Berlin at Tesla
Berlin Area, Germany

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Quote from link description ..If you're going to watch one video on Battery Day Predictions, this is the one to watch. ...

Agree that this is good and I have great respect for anyone trying to pull all the various threads together and make whole cloth, but:

1. he plays fast and loose with percentages, for instance the 10% increase in cost for a single crystal cathode is 10% of what? [not the $88/kWh he applies it to almost certainly].

2. if the cells are increased to 4070 they are almost 4 times the power so the same cell production rate gives 4x the GWh line capacity. He then suggests 2x or 4x the cell production rate which then would lead to 8x to 16x the line capacity, not the 4x he then uses.

3. Tesla already reportedly use 5% silicon in their anode, an increase to 20% gives most of the advantage of a completely silicon anode. I think it is likely that the cells will have more silicon and hence a greater capacity increase. Panasonic cells may not use the higher silicon content that is consistent with their 20% overall capacity increase.

4. tabless electrodes do not just allow heat to be extracted faster (perhaps with plate cooling), but also cause less heat to be generated due to lower resistance.

5. cell filling with electrolyte must be part of the picture, else why would Tesla buy a specialist in cell filling equipment, they could just have bought on the open market if the cell filling was similar to existing lines.

6. roadster is an opportunity to start with low volume production of the advanced cell to pack line (building cells directly in the pack). A high scrapage rate does not no matter so much in an expensive performance above all sports car.

7. Advanced cell to pack is I think the ultimate goal, this could enable whole battery packs to be made at machine gun rates and in less volume than at present, and at lower cost. Advanced cell to pack is very difficult, verging on the impossible. If they can demo that then my mind really would be blown.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Evan Horetsky
Head of Engineering, Procurement, Construction Gigafactory Berlin at Tesla
Berlin Area, Germany

View attachment 586849

There was a rumour I saw that Gigafactory Berlin was planned to be eventually 2 million vehicles a year. This gives that rumour a bit more credence, although I still think it is unlikely to be accurate.

 

[Duffer]

Apparently, based on the last two days results, my attempts to purchase shares on the cheap is an excellent support for the SP. You're welcome.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Apparently, based on the last two days results, my attempts to purchase shares on the cheap is an excellent support for the SP. You're welcome.

Way to take one for the team! TMC thanks you with a virtual 'high five'

 

[dl003]

Seriously though, if the S&P had announced inclusion when TSLA was on such at tear already up to 500, the stock would have gone to the moon with so many people playing the lack of liquidity. As much as I would like to profit off a move like that, I think Tesla will probably have to make more than the number shares they already made available to be included in the S&P 500. And to be totally honest, I just want the S&P 500 inclusion behind us so we can focus on less artificial things like battery day and Q3 and Q4 numbers.

not only now I think it will never happen, but Im actively against it. I want the the stock to moon in the coming years with the SP sitting on the sideline waiting for "the fundamentals to make sense" or until a time when they can "buy the dip." They had the chance to be on the right side of history but instead decided to pull a Gordon Johnson. Thats what they'll get for playing stock analysts.

 

[trix]

Seriously though, if the S&P had announced inclusion when TSLA was on such at tear already up to 500, the stock would have gone to the moon with so many people playing the lack of liquidity. As much as I would like to profit off a move like that, I think Tesla will probably have to make more than the number shares they already made available to be included in the S&P 500. And to be totally honest, I just want the S&P 500 inclusion behind us so we can focus on less artificial things like battery day and Q3 and Q4 numbers.

Well, we're going to try again next quarter. We'll keep knocking on the S&P 500 door until they open. Until the time comes, we'll keep buying and never sell a share. Think about it, after Q3, we get do this all over again.

 

[junas]

There was a rumour I saw that Gigafactory Berlin was planned to be eventually 2 million vehicles a year. This gives that rumour a bit more credence, although I still think it is unlikely to be accurate.

I believe 2M vehicles a year is internal target set by Tesla.

Check the archived Giga Berlin page: https://web.archive.org/web/20200626231735/https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory-berlin
"Phase 1 will focus on production of Model Y, with a target capacity of 10,000 vehicles per week." Now this same page is updated to contain recruitment info and target numbers are gone.

According to several sources "Phase 1" is roughly one-fourth of the whole site: https://cleantechnica.com/files/2020/07/Map-Phase-1.png

The math is simple: 10,000 vehicles per week x 52 weeks x 4 phases = ~2M allowing some downtime.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If macros didn't take a dump...$TSLA would be close to or at $400 today..the buying toward battery day has begun me thinks

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Up 2% in AH trading on an evening when the S&P committee stood us up again. Are we finally shaking the S&P blues off then...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Some silly shortzes is self-imolating trying to get TSLA to go red b4 Close. That's gonna leave a mark...

Up +2.0% at 15:52 PM

AH seems to be our friend.

Probably just a preemptive move to max pain.

 

[lafrisbee]

and I look at the nest and see everyone has six legs and pincers for mouths.
This week is reinforcing the fact that we are only ants living in an ant farm and the little kid shaking it has the intitals MM.

 

[StealthP3D]

Therefore, if the need to purchase a new car is reduced; that significantly reduces the purchase of new cars/trucks across the board. Used Tesla vehicles like any used car puts the brand steering-wheel in the hands of people that cannot/do not have the luxury to buy new cars every couple of years.

I don't see the million mile battery as increasing the time period of the upgrade cycle for most new vehicle purchasers. Many new car buyers will still replace their car on a similar schedule. Because Tesla's hold their resale value better than ICE cars, the upgrade cycle will not become more expensive and the million mile battery will make this more pronounced. What will likely happen is some people who would have become new car buyers at a certain point in their life will continue to buy used cars (specifically, relatively low mileage "like new" Tesla's) and people who tend to buy new cars every 1-3 years will continue doing that.

 

[MC3OZ]

If the S&P committee is waiting for Tesla to post profits without regulatory credits, that may happen as soon as Q3.
So the sequence events that could happen before the end of 2020 is:-

• Battery Day
• Q3 production and deliveries
• Q3 earnings with profit exceeding regulatory credits.
• Some Model Y deliveries in China..

If the S&P 500 adds after that sequence of events we can expect the funds may be paying a higher price to get in.

Clearly they are not speculative and wait for actual results, a very conservative formula.

If they don't add before Battery Day IMO this scenario plays out, maybe they don't even add before the end of the year.
Which introduces the possible scenario that Q4 numbers are even better than Q3,

They will probably be surprised, they are looking at 500 or more companies, no doubt at a fairly high level, their specific knowledge about Tesla is limited.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Quote from link description ..If you're going to watch one video on Battery Day Predictions, this is the one to watch. ...

Agree good video. Stressed something I hadn’t given a lot of thought to - the speed of the battery production line may be the most important parameter for TeraWatt.

Speed - Roadrunner. I get it (Nyuk, nyuk).

 

[DragonWatch]

I don't see the million mile battery as increasing the time period of the upgrade cycle for most new vehicle purchasers. Many new car buyers will still replace their car on a similar schedule. Because Tesla's hold their resale value better than ICE cars, the upgrade cycle will not become more expensive and the million mile battery will make this more pronounced. What will likely happen is some people who would have become new car buyers at a certain point in their life will continue to buy used cars (specifically, relatively low mileage "like new" Tesla's) and people who tend to buy new cars every 1-3 years will continue doing that.

Yes, I got tired of camping outdoors with my army teams, but I repeatedly sit down in my Model X and feel like I am driving it off the lot each day ~ at least once in awhile due to COVID-19. I see no need to replace the car. Back when upgrading to a radio, yeah, I might go beyond buying and installing my own.

Your point is clearer than mine as to cars becoming more accessible as they become available for resale. The buyer that could not purchase a new Model Y, might be better able to purchased a used one.

At this point I would rather upgrade the master suite

 

[StealthP3D]

I don’t disagree. Could be due to two things:
1) The input assumptions to their valuation model
2) The model construct itself, along with hidden assumptions

As to 1), they list three primary inputs to their model (range worst to best):
a) Gross Margins: 25% (20% likelihood) to 40% (80% likelihood)
b) Capital Efficiency (factory cost): $16K/unit/yr (50% likelihood) to $11K/unit/yr (50% likelihood)
c) Robotaxi Value ($2.50/mile falling to $1.00/mile, 50% platform fee): never available (70% likelihood) to 2021 available (30% likelihood).

I believe their valuation model relies pretty heavily on market share assumptions (last I checked they assumed around 18% or 20% market share). I believe it may be as high as 50% or even 60% at it's peak. This would be in the case of Tesla maintaining their technological and cost of production lead while growing production at least 40%/year on average. A tall order to be sure but I think it's a result that is not that unlikely.