Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

I just drove 6 hours on I-80 from central PA west and saw no fewer than 18 trailers loaded with mostly Model Ys. Made me feel warm and fuzzy.

Sounds like the most exciting thing happening in Ohio.

 

[Favguy]

YouTube video Renault ZOE charging on the Tesla V3 Supercharger CCS -

Is this real? First I've heard of any other makes charging on the Tesla network.

I saw a similar video of an MG ZS EV charging on one in the UK the other day as well.

 

[MP3Mike]

YouTube video Renault ZOE charging on the Tesla V3 Supercharger CCS -

Is this real? First I've heard of any other makes charging on the Tesla network.

It shows charging at a whopping 0kW... So, not charging.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Robotaxis in China:
Baidu Launches Apollo Go Robotaxis In Beijing, Cangzhou, & Changsha

I recently wrote an article about 10 existing and planned robotaxi services. One of those was the Apollo Go Robotaxi service launched by Baidu in Changsha, China, on Earth Day, April 20. It turns out that robotaxi service was also launched in Cangzhou, China, in August, and now it’s just been launched in Beijing. This is the first robotaxi service to be operating in the capital of China.

Currently free to ride, with a safety driver, and from/to designated spots. It's a start!

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Sep 11, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Stalemate in News Desert"

Traded: $22,512,575,391.14 ($22.51B)
Volume: 60,821,472
VWAP: $370.14

Close: $372.72 / VWAP: 100.71%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $347.304B / $181.873B = 190.96%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $369.28B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $209.05B
Nota Bene: 3rd tranche of CEO comp. unlocked as of Fri, Sep 04, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 58.4% (60th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.3% (43rd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.44% of Short Volume (44th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: Roto-Reuters: "All the News, plus we dig *sugar* up "

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Ok, so where is this from? I don't recall anyone ever posting a live updated price target.

That's just a screenshot of the options-chain from my broker, as Max-Pain isn't dynamic, I look there to see the current open-interest.

There were more puts than calls on $370 and significant calls on $375, macro was lost-in-action, so and easy one for the MM's today.

Here's hoping better macro next week so we can rise with the rest, all things considered, this week went well - and S&P still has to add at some point, likely at a much higher capitalisation than now. Fools.

 

[wipster]

I don’t know how good the filters are in my 3, otherwise I would seriously be looking for an air mattress to stick in my 3 and just be sleeping in it with the A/C left on all night in my garage.

Wouldn't you be worried about the lack of carbon monoxide? I know I wouldn't... ;-)

 

[Singuy]

That's just a screenshot of the options-chain from my broker, as Max-Pain isn't dynamic, I look there to see the current open-interest.

There were more puts than calls on $370 and significant calls on $375, macro was lost-in-action, so and easy one for the MM's today.

Here's hoping better macro next week so we can rise with the rest, all things considered, this week went well - and S&P still has to add at some point, likely at a much higher capitalisation than now. Fools.

Yeah I was fully prepared to lose a million this week, thinking half of the valuation is probably some s&p spec play. Glad to be wrong because boy did it ruined my labor day weekend knowing Tuesday was going to be a blood bath.

 

[wipster]

Unchanged in Germany, but I'm going to bed anyway. Have a great weekend! We're gonna be a bit smokey here... can barely see across the street. But heaven help all the folks that have lost their homes and/or be evacuated... my thoughts are with you.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah I was fully prepared to lose a million this week, thinking half of the valuation is probably some s&p spec play. Glad to be wrong because boy did it ruined my labor day weekend knowing Tuesday was going to be a blood bath.

I was $1.2m down from the $500 high to the $330 close and am glad it started to reverse. I thing the S&Peculators left the building in the meantime. Of course "only lose if you sell", etc., but I had some Oct & Nov calls that were looking extremely juice, that I'd setup for Battery Day, Q3 P&D + ER - didn't expect the S&P debacle to cause such a mess given the that SP went down when it was clear Tesla now qualified, but went up after the split...

 

[Tslynk67]

Unchanged in Germany, but I'm going to bed anyway. Have a great weekend! We're gonna be a bit smokey here... can barely see across the street. But heaven help all the folks that have lost their homes and/or be evacuated... my thoughts are with you.

It's the weekend, dude, markets closed... Get some sleep, you must be tired...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yeah I was fully prepared to lose a million this week, thinking half of the valuation is probably some s&p spec play. Glad to be wrong because boy did it ruined my labor day weekend knowing Tuesday was going to be a blood bath.

If TSLA volatility 'ruins your day', you have sized your investment improperly. Otherwise, your comments are just what, to evoke sympathy? All us longs went through the same events last week, yet some of us enjoyed our weekend.

#WHINE'N'CHEEZE

Unchanged in Germany, but I'm going to bed anyway. Have a great weekend!

Yeah, it would be on a SATURDAY... the weekend?

 

[SPadival]

Another reason for shipping Model 3s (SR+?) from China to Europe & Australia - Free up Nickel based battery production capacity for the Model 3 LRs & the Semi

Elon gave us a clue about this in the last earnings call:

Yes. And there's like two general classes of cell. There's like iron phosphate, and then the nickel based. The nickel-based cells have higher energy density so longer range.

Obviously, those are needed for something like Semi, where every, every unit of mass that you add in battery pack, you have to subtract in cargo. So it's very important to have a mass efficient and long-range pack for four batteries. What we're seeing with our passenger vehicles is that our powertrain efficiency and tire efficiency, drive coefficient like basically all of the things that, like, you know, our HVAC, going to a heat pump, basically our total vehicle efficiency has gotten good enough with Model 3, for example, that we actually are comfortable having an iron phosphate battery pack in Model 3 in China. And that that will be in volume production later this year.

So we think that getting a range that is in the high 200 -- basically, we think you probably getting a range of almost 300 miles with an iron phosphate pack, taking into account a whole bunch of powertrain and other vehicle efficiencies. And that frees up a lot of capacity for things like the Tesla Semi and the other projects so far higher energy density. So, yes, so you have like two supply chains that you can tap into iron phosphate or nickel. We use very little cobalt in our system already, and that's -- that may to zero along, so it's basically about nickel.

 

[Christine69420]

Uh-oh...

View attachment 587254

YouTube video Renault ZOE charging on the Tesla V3 Supercharger CCS -

Is this real? First I've heard of any other makes charging on the Tesla network.

Don't belive it!

In Europe EVs can plug the Tesla charger plugs into various cars so that they can gram some pics. But I do not belive they will charge.

The Zoe only charge on A/C chargers. No DC chargers work there - neither CCS nor CHADEMO.

The e-Golf can charge on DC but only do that veeery slowly. So a herd of non-Tesla EVs would clog up the supercharger network in no time since they would have to stay for much longer than the Teslas.

If VW bought charging from Tesla they would not demo the out of production e-Golf but rather their top of the line e-tron and Taycans.

It would be really stupid at this point of Tesla to ruin one of their main advantages over other EVs by allowing other brands to slowly charge their cars at superchargers.

 

[UkNorthampton]

To provide a local opinion on export of RHD Model 3s with LFP batteries from China into Australia and NZ.

Price is an issue here, I've always thought a section of the local market will be more than happy to buy them.

Other local RHD markets are Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and possibly others, Tesla is already expanding into Singapore, Malaysia is the logical next step.

So at least for this Asia pacific region, RHD LFP from China makes sense as an entry level car.

Bottom line, production volumes and sale prices are all important.

And according to Bjorn Nyland, no import tax in Thailand on Chinese-built cars.

I don't understand the Malaysian import tax system, one reading also points to no import tax from China (ASEAN) - Malaysian motor vehicle import duties - Wikipedia

I didn't realise that Indonesia is RHD (LHT - Left Hand Traffic).

A simple view of a map shows that China is a good location for RHD except for UK/Eire and a few (small market) places near Americas.
File:Countries driving on the left or right.svg - Wikimedia Commons

It just seems that if the USA factories can concentrate on North American standards, they can up production and consistency/quality might follow due to less swapping to meet different standards. Same for EU. China might add further factories for domestic and nearby LHD markets with a portion of Shanghai being RHD.

 

[Criscmt]

IV of DITM Leaps

I am looking at options to deleverage LEAPs.
I am considering writing a vertical spread against these long calls rather than selling the calls, helps with taxes (LTCG, rather than STCG).

I want to continue positioned in TSLA. I am wondering whether I should

1. Switch to the common stock or
2. Switch to DITM LEAPs. In this case, at least for some amount, I have some short calls DITM I would like to buy back. (Buying back too many might be suboptimal amount losses for the tax year, but taxes aspect is a different story). For the remaining amount, I will be buying DITM long calls, all LEAPs.
   

IV effect if I switch to DITM LEAPs?

• When I cash out my LEAPs (ATM, OTM) through vertical spreads, the IV is likely going to be high
• If I switch to DITM LEAPs, when IV goes down, will my DITM calls also loose value due to IV crush?
• For ATM, OTM calls, IV crush tends to be very significant. For DITM calls how significant does this tend to be?

Rationale for considering DITM calls and not the common stock

• (DITM) Calls allow me to later switch to ATM or OTM calls, without tax implications. If I switch to stock, and if there's any appreciation in the value, I will end up paying taxes from sale (to raise cash to buy ATM or OTM calls later)

 

[heltok]

And according to Bjorn Nyland, no import tax in Thailand on Chinese-built cars.

I don't understand the Malaysian import tax system, one reading also points to no import tax from China (ASEAN) - Malaysian motor vehicle import duties - Wikipedia

I didn't realise that Indonesia is RHD (LHT - Left Hand Traffic).

A simple view of a map shows that China is a good location for RHD except for UK/Eire and a few (small market) places near Americas.
File:Countries driving on the left or right.svg - Wikimedia Commons

It just seems that if the USA factories can concentrate on North American standards, they can up production and consistency/quality might follow due to less swapping to meet different standards. Same for EU. China might add further factories for domestic and nearby LHD markets with a portion of Shanghai being RHD.

My guess is that soon after Phase 2(or what Model Y building is called) is complete in Shanghai Tesla intend to start the next factory that will be an even larger factory doing multiple things such as Model 2, Asia-Cybertruck, Semi, Solar, Storage with own cell production. That is one of the reasons for why they raised more cash. Location will probably be in the Guangdong area or another in the Shanghai area.

As for Asian expansion, I think Tesla will go to Singapore first, then to Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam all from Shanghai. Singapore expansion seems to be happening now:
https://sg.linkedin.com/jobs/tesla-jobs?position=1&pageNum=0

Add another factory in India for India and nearby countries. Tesla are gonna be busy in Asia, looking forward to seeing more red dots in the supercharger map!

My own projections:
2020: 500k cars
2021: 1M cars(500k Freemont 350k Shanghai plus little from Berlin and Austin)
2022: 2M cars(adding 500k from Berlin and 500k from Austin)
2023: 4M cars(new lines in Berlin and Austin plus new factories soon to be announced in China, India, East Coast US)

Yeah, the next 3 years will be epic, but also ramping hell... And don’t expect people who cannot extrapolate to understand the stock....

 

[Criscmt]

Anyone tends to trade around maxpain?
Maybe diagonals?

@Lycanthrope?

 

[Cobbler]

Another reason for shipping Model 3s (SR+?) from China to Europe & Australia - Free up Nickel based battery production capacity for the Model 3 LRs & the Semi

Elon gave us a clue about this in the last earnings call:

It's astonishing that Tesla will be responsible of processing/moving thousands of tonnes raw material all over the globe!

[Fanboy mode]
Tesla will influence Earth's gravity on a microscale level in favor of Climate change.... [/Fanboy mode]

 

[perwis]

New must-see rant by Gali on HyperChange.

Love his enthusiasm and how he clearly articulates many of the issues that should be on the mind of every Tesla investor. For example, what theory of value investing should we rely on? the wider macro environment with low-yielding bonds, disruptive technologies, the possibility that Tesla might be even bigger than our wildest dreams etc etc.

sorry if this has been posted before but haven’t seen it in the thread.