Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Watch thing makes zero sense. You can buy a ring and stick a RFID in it to unlock your car, some have just implanted the chip in their arm. I have an apple watch and it's great. I just wish the Tesla app for it was better.

You know what the funny thing is?

Spoiler: But here's the funny thing:

The greediest amongst us planned to out-smart the "system". They were afraid of losing their "money" and thought TSLA was "over-valued" at $420, $600 and (heaven forbid, $1000). Now, post-split, $84, $125, and $200! Those capable of learning, just a little slower than the rest, bought back in and are glad they did (and wish they were never educated in such a direct and unpleasant manner). The most stubborn are long gone and cringe every time they see TSLA share price flash on their screen. They prefer to not look because it makes them sick to their stomach. Many of them will make the same mistake again and again, repeatedly, throughout their lives. Because they worship money and are afraid to lose it.

I can't help it, I think that's funny (and sad).

That's a lot of words to just say "Dunning-Kruger".

Agreed 100% on this board's vibe. I would have done ok without the insight and advice I've accumulated here, but with it I've done far better than I could have imagined.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think this is OT. What do you guys make of JB's being on the board of QuantumScape? It's not unusual for founders to join other boards, but this is a potential competitor. (presumably though JB also wants everything to move towards electric)

I think it's great. It shows that Tesla insiders don't live in a vacuum and are engaged with other developments in the EV/energy space.

Now if I found out Tesla had people sitting on the board of NKLA, I would seriously question what they knew that I didn't!

 

[CHGolferJim]

LOL, I agree. I didn't watch the show, just read the Teslarati article, which sounds like it came from Lucid PR:

The design also is drastically different from any other car on the road. While the differences are subtle, the modern proportions for the Air deliver a one-of-a-kind look that gives drivers a unique design.
Lucid Air unveiling: four variants,​

Excuse me. Leaving aside the question of how a design can be "drastically different... while the differences are subtle," that car exterior looks like Model S with a chrome mustache. The interior has a floating instrument screen like Model 3/Y, except stretched and curved, and a second touchscreen below the center dashboard like Porsche Taycan. Which part is "one-of-a-kind" again?

This triggers several thoughts:

1) Even if Plaid fails to beat the Air's "unheard-of" specs, which I doubt... why would someone buy an obvious imitator of Model S when they can get the real thing? The only reason I can think of is to stand out from the crowd of Teslas already on the road.

2) If you are targeting buyers who want to stand out, why not really stand out with a truly distinctive design... like an electric Lamborghini or Faraday's bat-mobile?

3) The world is changing fast. Young people seem increasing tolerant of and appreciative of real innovation. The most innovative design in history for a production auto is Tesla's Cybertruck, which split observers into two polarized camps of "Hideous!" and "Awesome!"

4) I predict that buyers who wanna stand out or who appreciate real innovation will make Cybertruck a phenomenal seller. And when Tesla releases a low-cost, high-performance, folded-steel Cybercar (like the fan concept below but better)... holy tsunami, Batman.

I hope I’m not too old to drive when this thing comes out, otoh, being able to drive may be unnecessary.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Really hope the SP doesn't go down because of no SPoon inclusion today ...

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Very positive to see this on trading action and not a gap up, even if volume wasn't huge. No sellers to be had. Our Honey Badger is back, hungry, and she gon' eat.

One more chart for the day...smoke 'em if you got 'em:

 

[Cobos]

I just noticed something. (Yes I'm slow) Now in the post split world it's almost like $1 of stock appreciation leads to $1 Billion more in market cap. So going from stock price to market cap is now dead easy

Nice to know for those of us slow enough not to have seen that yet.

 

[Hock1]

You know what the funny thing is?

Some people hear this advice from successful millionaires and billionaires. But they think they are smarter. And most of them have middling returns (yes, some lose everything and even fewer do better, that is the nature of speculation) while people of average intelligence who actually follow the advice, do almost nothing and, in time, become wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. More money than they know what to do with.

Now that's funny!

Last year I noticed this board had a culture of trading built into it. When I realized beyond any reasonable doubt that we had hooked a keeper, I spent a good amount of time and effort making sure that participants here understood the time-tested and proven way to wealth and that markets are not predictable and good stocks do not stop appreciating simply because they seem to be very richly valued or because you have doubled or tripled your investment and the most successful way to wealth is to simply hold growth companies with great management. Not to try to time the market. Because the stock can go higher than you ever dreamed possible.
Likewise, earlier this year I spent a good amount of time and effort making the case that pandemics were not a good reason to sell, that historically they were just a temporary adjustment to the indices, that people continue to have sex, eat, drink and make babies, get new jobs, buy houses and cars and markets keep going up. In both cases I provided charts and graphs and wondered why some people were so convinced all the rules of the world we live in would had suddenly changed or why some people thought they were so much smarter than everyone else (even Elon Musk, fer cryin' out loud).

Spoiler: But here's the funny thing:

The greediest amongst us planned to out-smart the "system". They were afraid of losing their "money" and thought TSLA was "over-valued" at $420, $600 and (heaven forbid, $1000). Now, post-split, $84, $125, and $200! Those capable of learning, just a little slower than the rest, bought back in and are glad they did (and wish they were never educated in such a direct and unpleasant manner). The most stubborn are long gone and cringe every time they see TSLA share price flash on their screen. They prefer to not look because it makes them sick to their stomach. Many of them will make the same mistake again and again, repeatedly, throughout their lives. Because they worship money and are afraid to lose it.

I can't help it, I think that's funny (and sad).

Being one that has decades of experiential data to back up my advice that I'll give to anyone in this business of investing, I've learned two things:
1) Most people have to find out for themselves, no matter what good advice they get from those who have the knowledge, and
2) There are reasons why some people have money and others don't.

 

[Destination]

58:20 until spoon.

 

[StealthP3D]

With $200k capital you can generate $10k a week selling weeklies when the stock is going nowhere.

That's nothing! With $200k capital you can generate $50k a week going long when the stock is rising.

Of course the trouble is knowing when the stock is rising (before it rises) or when the stock is going nowhere (before it goes nowhere).

 

[corduroy]

After 2 years of my convincing, my 76 year old mother finally bought 40 shares of TSLA last week. She's ecstatic being up $2k in a few days and now is asking me about Model Ys

 

[Tslynk67]

You know what the funny thing is?

Some people hear this advice from successful millionaires and billionaires. But they think they are smarter. And most of them have middling returns (yes, some lose everything and even fewer do better, that is the nature of speculation) while people of average intelligence who actually follow the advice, do almost nothing and, in time, become wealthy beyond their wildest dreams. More money than they know what to do with.

Now that's funny!

Last year I noticed this board had a culture of trading built into it. When I realized beyond any reasonable doubt that we had hooked a keeper, I spent a good amount of time and effort making sure that participants here understood the time-tested and proven way to wealth and that markets are not predictable and good stocks do not stop appreciating simply because they seem to be very richly valued or because you have doubled or tripled your investment and the most successful way to wealth is to simply hold growth companies with great management. Not to try to time the market. Because the stock can go higher than you ever dreamed possible.
Likewise, earlier this year I spent a good amount of time and effort making the case that pandemics were not a good reason to sell, that historically they were just a temporary adjustment to the indices, that people continue to have sex, eat, drink and make babies, get new jobs, buy houses and cars and markets keep going up. In both cases I provided charts and graphs and wondered why some people were so convinced all the rules of the world we live in would had suddenly changed or why some people thought they were so much smarter than everyone else (even Elon Musk, fer cryin' out loud).

Spoiler: But here's the funny thing:

The greediest amongst us planned to out-smart the "system". They were afraid of losing their "money" and thought TSLA was "over-valued" at $420, $600 and (heaven forbid, $1000). Now, post-split, $84, $125, and $200! Those capable of learning, just a little slower than the rest, bought back in and are glad they did (and wish they were never educated in such a direct and unpleasant manner). The most stubborn are long gone and cringe every time they see TSLA share price flash on their screen. They prefer to not look because it makes them sick to their stomach. Many of them will make the same mistake again and again, repeatedly, throughout their lives. Because they worship money and are afraid to lose it.

I can't help it, I think that's funny (and sad).

Well, as I said many times, I do both. I have my HODL account where I accumulate shares (nearly at 3000 now), sometimes selling "safe" covered calls to buy more. This account is up 14x, or something like that.

And I have my trading account, which started with around $3.5k and is up ohhh, 230x, as of today - as it's mostly 2022 LEAPS it shifts more than the SP.

Both accounts are totally separate (although I lend money between them sometimes), and my approach to each is totally different - ultra-cautious on the core-shares, calculated risks in the other.

 

[Tslynk67]

That's nothing! With $200k capital you can generate $50k a week going long when the stock is rising.

Of course the trouble is knowing when the stock is rising (before it rises) or when the stock is going nowhere (before it goes nowhere).

Exactly, which is why I do both (see other response). When we're trading sideways, easy pickings to be had selling calls.

 

[Tslynk67]

I see Jan 23 calls are out.

And mighty expensive they are too!

What I did spot, which I like is $950 strikes for September 2022.

 

[MABMAB]

SPoon?

 

[kengchang]

Tesla surges 11% amid Goldman Sachs report that weekly app downloads show growth in China

Don't think this got posted

 

[LN1_Casey]

SPoon?

Are people going to ask this *every* day until it happens?

 

[mrmage]

That’s a good idea. I have not done options trading before and quite frankly don’t know how. Only have been a buy and hold trader. Need to read up on it and maybe practice to see how I would do. Thanks.

Paper trading is a great way to understand the mechanics, but it's hard to learn the best strategy for a stock like Tesla because you won't encounter the various market conditions for years. Unlike trading stocks where you can always wait for the SP to catch up, options go down when the SP isn't moving.

This creates a triple hit to options when TSLA falls or consolidates. The initial impact is from the stock drop followed by IV crush during consolidation. However, time is the most dangerous because holding onto the option indefinitely is not an option (pun intended) as value is lost day by day. This is why you so often hear about options dropping more than 80 or 90% in a short period of time.

Pullbacks last year and a bit earlier this year are the norm and not anomalies. We got lucky because the drop earlier this year was reversed through the Fed backing up corporate bonds and the government giving out stimulus, but a bailout may not have happened.

Also keep in mind that Tesla is more than 1/3 of the way to a $1T market cap. Although I'm very bullish on Tesla, I expect an extended consolidation will happen at some point because it can't keep going up at this pace. Shareholders shouldn't care less, but options holders get hit badly during periods like these.

Counter intuitively, you may wish to start with spreads to learn options, especially in the money (ITM) ones. Spreads can yield higher profit potential than stock, possibly with lower risk. They aren't as volatile as naked options, but time works in your favor. Spreads can max out just by sitting on them even when SP doesn't go up, and they cost a lot less than options.

My analogy is that spreads are like rock climbing with protection. The extra gear appears complicated, but it makes climbing safer and helps improve technique.

 

[dc_h]

CNBC: "TSLA pares week's loss, ending the day in green"

They know its Monday?

 

[Bet TSLA]

58:20 until spoon.

You're delusional. Please stop.

 

[Nocturnal]

You're delusional. Please stop.

It won't happen until we stop mentioning it.