Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

The biggest drop started when he mentioned that Maxwell's dry metal process wasn't 100% functional yet. That comment made me nervous.

I watched it drop right after they said (what I heard anyway). The battery process was almost figured out - well, um... it's just that the yield isn't that great... We're on our 4th machine, maybe 3 more versions of the machine is all... by the time it gets to volume. Was a slight disappointment in choice of words, but it was ready to drop at any moment - as if planned. Almost sold a few at the top, but held anyway.

What I love is Elon doesn't tell you what he thinks you want to hear - he unapologetically just tells you how it is. A rare concept these days, the unvarnished truth is.

His candor about where they are and the challenges to reaching their goals was indeed refreshing. It's as if he wanted to specifically avoid exaggeration.

A surprising thing to me was how comfortable Elon was deferring to Drew Baglino. It was good to see him trust someone else on stage like he used to with JB Straubel. Would be nice if this became a growing trend.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I think that was the reason for Elon's tweet yesterday. People were too close to speculating everything was dropping in October. Needed to set the expectations correctly.

There was so much speculation of PLL being acquired, they'd drop like a rock tomorrow with no acquisition announcement.

I will not be happy. I logged onto Schwab to sell moments after trading halted. I had a why isn't this working moment before I figured out what was happening.

 

[Mike Smith]

One thing I didn't hear mentioned today (although Tesla didn't promise it) was the million mile battery. A durability issue perhaps? May be addressed at the 3rd qtr. financial meeting.

It would have been nice if someone asked about it, but we did get a great question about whether musicians will be able to create songs for the cars..

 

[mongo]

What about shingling? One image of the new battery cell showed what looked like a spiral of shingles, not a spiral of continuous material, and the teaser image on the shirts and on the cover of the meeting announcement also showed these shingles. Where do they come in? Are they one of the other things they will explain in upcoming days?

Those are called "tabs". Imagine that all the current of the battery had to run through ONE of those (that is how current 18650 and 2170 cells work).

On classic cells, the tabs were additional pieces welded to the electrodes. These new cell electrodes have their edges laser cut then folded over as the cell is wound. So each shingle is really part of the edge of a continuous electrode, not a separate or discontinuous piece.

 

[Green Pete]

I just realized something else. In their 5 components to cost saving none of them were "we are making it ourselves so we don't have to pay someone else's profit margin."

That's got to count for at least 10% no?

Edit: the way Elon talked about handling, he must have driven a prototype with these.

And I feel like the fact someone was able to take a picture and leak the cell implies there are a lot more people on that factory floor area than they are letting on.

I think they really downplayed their success here. Like I think when they say they have to work out stuff on the anode it's not a "if doesn't work" its a "we know we can kick out a little faster than this"

 

[Thekiwi]

If IV drops to reasonable levels tomorrow and is combined with a stock price drop, might be a good time to pick up some LEAPs and/or short term calls. LEAPs just because, and short term calls to play delivery number and maybe quarterly report.

IV goes up on big moves - Up or Down - Don't expect IV to drop tomorrow.

 

[Thekiwi]

I just realized something else. In their 5 components to cost saving none of them were "we are making it ourselves so we don't have to pay someone else's profit margin."

That's got to count for at least 10% no?

The cost savings were all under the heading of "vertical integration" where Tesla is doing it themselves.

 

[StealthP3D]

Another important thing to me was how comfortable Elon was deferring to Drew Baglino. It was good to see him trust someone else on stage like he used to with JB Straubel. Would be nice if this became a growing trend.

I like Drew Baglino a lot! He's got credibility to spare and seems like a genuinely nice and very capable guy.

But what impressed me more than Elon deferring to Drew was how comfortable Drew seemed to be taking it away from Elon when he sensed Elon had said enough. Because Elon can start out strong and then end up in the dirt with details that detract from his original point. It seemed like Drew knew this and could gracefully butt in at just the right time without waiting for an "ok" from Elon. That shows real confidence.

 

[30seconds]

Fantastic to see Telsa again move out of communications around next quarter or two to an event looking 1 - 3 years out. I see much of the same nonsense about this being too much time to matter when they announced the GF, Model 3 and China GF. All Tesla managed to do is deliver and exceed targets for each of these.

Is there any real competition on vehicle production after this? I don't see it. Toyota (not interested), GM (can't do it), BMW (ha-ha), VW (already years behind Tesla before today), Hyundai & Ford (any actual innovation in their products?).

 

[Zero CO2]

The only reason the SP is down is because of a lack of understanding.

it is that lack of understanding should give us HODLers a nice buying opportunity tomorrow... what "no million mile battery" what a disaster the FUD machine will be cranking

 

[T.S.L.A.Smurf]

If the Kato Road pilot plant will have a 10 GWh capacity that will be reached in about a year, what will they use all those batteries for? They can't all be used for Tesla Model S Plaid right? So something does not add up!

What do you guys think? How many KWh will a Model S Plaid batterypack have in it? Will they announce some other models with the new battery within the next year? Plaid Model X and Model 3/Y?

 

[StealthP3D]

If the Kato Road pilot plant will have a 10 GWh capacity that will be reached in about a year, what will they use all those batteries for? They can't all be used for Tesla Model S Plaid right? So something does not add up!

What do you guys think? How many KWh will a Model S Plaid batterypack have in it? Will they announce some other models with the new battery within the next year? Plaid Model X and Model 3/Y?

Cybertruck will need batteries. Semi will need batteries.

 

[kengchang]

If the Kato Road pilot plant will have a 10 GWh capacity that will be reached in about a year, what will they use all those batteries for? They can't all be used for Tesla Model S Plaid right? So something does not add up!

What do you guys think? How many KWh will a Model S Plaid batterypack have in it? Will they announce some other models with the new battery within the next year? Plaid Model X and Model 3/Y?

Osborning your existing product is a thing, they won't announce anything done to the S/X until it's ready to go.

 

[Mo City]

If the Kato Road pilot plant will have a 10 GWh capacity that will be reached in about a year, what will they use all those batteries for? They can't all be used for Tesla Model S Plaid right? So something does not add up!

What do you guys think? How many KWh will a Model S Plaid batterypack have in it? Will they announce some other models with the new battery within the next year? Plaid Model X and Model 3/Y?

Also keep in mind the ramp to 10 GWh has already started.

Prior to Plaid production, CT and Semis will use them.

 

[dgodfrey]

Like many on here, I've been following the research of cell design for years now. Quit crying you babies about "nothing today". GM nor Ford couldn't ****ing do this.

Ummmmm, Does Ultium ring a bell? They figured out how to stack batteries in three directions and offer different sizes in the same car. If that doesn't set the EV world on it's ear why would 53% reduction in price. C'mon man.

 

[jpsgoneev]

Well, I guess I should have seen this coming. Autonomy Day was the same, vague promises of a revolution in the future and the stock tanked 20% after.

We'll probably have to wait until Q3 delivery numbers to recover from this one.

If they keep doing _______ Day events in the future, I'll be buying puts the day before to hedge my permanent long position. Third time won't be the charm here.

Some people looking Gift Horses in the mouth. Tesla lays out the business plan and road map years in advance. Few companies do this to nearly the same extent. For those that understand this, this is an invitation for the type of shareholders that are willing to support that vision, and take the ... yes, the long term ride with them. These ups and downs are in large part created by the short time investors, traders and the speculators. (That’s one way to invest/trade, but often leads to frustrations when short term ‘guesses’ don’t come to pass, or line up with reality.) I see BD as Tesla doing the same, with another road map for the next 5-yr to10-yr business plan. Now with Tesla extended vision, I will be (strategically) loading up on chairs ... for the next 1-10 yrs of my investment strategy (not that complicated, really). That’s what I did to accumulate chairs these past seven yrs. It has thus far worked out favorably. Time to focus on the next generation’s chairs. I see good things, and higher SP, in TSLA’s future.

 

[Beltsbear]

Tonight was sort of what I expected but with more detail and more advances then I expected. There are no SCI-FI Advances that can’t be made. Just a bunch of incremental advances, all possible, that add up into huge improvement over current tech. This clearly shows how the semi and cybertruck can be built in volume and profitability. And how we can get to Insane numbers of vehicle’s by 2025. This is bullish AF and justifies a stock value of minimally $600 by 2025 with a low p/e and ZERO value for FSD. FSD triples that.

 

[keydiver]

Not so much a roadmap as "this is what you should have done, and why you are screwed now".

Sort of makes me wonder if Mary Barra isn't on the phone right now with LG:
Mary: So, this new Ultium battery you are going to make for us is a tabless cell, right?
LG: Uhhhh, no. That's not what you asked for. But, we can get started on it, give us a few years.
Mary: But, it does have the dry electrode process, right?
LG: Uhhhh, no. That is patented by Maxwell/Tesla, sorry. We still have that messy solvent to deal with, and huge ovens.
Mary: OK, but certainly you can switch to a raw silicon anode, right?
LG: No, but maybe in a few years, check back.
Mary: Do you see any way you might be able to reduce the cost by at least 50% over the next 3 years?
LG: Do you mean the limited number of batteries we can produce, that Tesla hasn't already spoken for, and GM and every other EV manufacturer will be fighting for? Why should we cut prices?
Mary: "click" ... mumble, mumble, mumble ... we're screwed!

 

[Singuy]

OK, so I feel like this slide was sped over very quickly during the presentation - and perhaps for good reason: It appears to indicate the new Tabless battery will have dramatically quicker recharge time - and placing emphasis on that fact would cause many people to delay purchase - although I could be wrong here.

The vertical axis is Charging time, while the horizontal axis is battery size (the line is where Tesla settled on for the new battery.

Thoughts?

View attachment 591098

This is to show charge time increase as the size of the battery increases if it's a tab design. So the tab less design solve this problem. 2170, or 21 is baseline. So tab less a little bit slower than 2170.

 

[T.S.L.A.Smurf]

Ah, how could I forget about the CT and Semi! And osborning is also a very good point. That makes much more sense! Thanks guys

I'm so excited about all this, it will be one of the most important step in Teslas growth if they can pull this off in the next 1-3 years!

(I can't seem to find the like button, maybe cause my account is somewhat new)