Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

This is what we waited from April to September for? Essentially, they've theorized some great improvements in the battery and manufacturing, but we won't see the fruits of it for 2 or 3 years (or maybe by 2030).

Absolutely NOTHING new today - no increased range, no refreshed S or X, did not show the Plaid. Briefed quickly over the Plaid specs. No compact, hatch back reveal.

Essentially, this was a nothing event. Absolutely NOTHING changes tomorrow, this month, or this year. And probably not even next year.

I'm praying there's some actual substance at the end if this thing. Like an encore. I've rarely been so disappointed. Shorts will feast.

What was not to like? Sure if you sucked at high school chemistry and physics, some parts might be too technical for you but just look at the results and what they they will be achieving. Look at how much they can reduce costs by using different methods of manufacturing, use of raw materials etc. Heck, that three part undercarriage was amazing by itself!

I thought the presentation, and how they presented some technical aspects into little chunks was really well done. Perhaps the best presentation ever and much better done than the investor’s day presentation on FSD.

What did you expect? A shiny product presentation? That was never the intention.

 

[MC3OZ]

Probably a few folks no longer going to put off buying a S X 3 Y now as they don’t have to worry about an outdated battery in a couple weeks. Might help move a few inventory cars in the next few days.

Very cool briefing.

Exactly how I see things....

We will find out about the new batteries when they are in vehicles that are shipping..

In the meantime, don't give customers a good reason to delay purchase.

Also don't make existing battery supply partners overly nervous.

It takes time to ramp production....

Things like V2G can be supported in cars then unlocked at a later date via a software update.

No sudden changes to vehicle prices and specs is the right way to play it.

Plaid is a new product, hence new price and specs. Any Plaid sales that Osborne Model S/X sales are higher margin and not a big factor. The ball is back in the court of Porsche and Lucid.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'm assuming the 1 year delay is due to the virus? Frustrating for it to slip a whole year in only a year.

 

[dww12]

In Asian trade, shares of Panasonic & LG Chem are falling following the Tesla announcement.

People who actually pay attention to battery industry know exactly what happened today.

Yeah, that next call to Panny is going to awkward AF.

 

[lafrisbee]

What about shingling? One image of the new battery cell showed what looked like a spiral of shingles, not a spiral of continuous material, and the teaser image on the shirts and on the cover of the meeting announcement also showed these shingles. Where do they come in? Are they one of the other things they will explain in upcoming days?

"The Tab" now runs the length of the unrolled jelly roll as a single sheet of copper, when it is folded over it has to be cut so as not to crumple/wrinkle at the end. They are just "800?" single tabs. when they lay over on each other they create a solid lump of "tab."

 

[Chocochip]

Twitter
S 3 X Y. C A R S
The most work-intensive joke ever!

 

[EnergyMax]

View attachment 591108

I'm assuming the 1 year delay is due to the virus? Frustrating for it to slip a whole year in only a year.

Probably not covid related delay. Rather related to challenges of getting the 4680 pilot line functional.

 

[dakh]

IV goes up on big moves - Up or Down - Don't expect IV to drop tomorrow.

I looked but haven't found any way to see historical data on IV, but my impression was that usually it goes up before an event that can move the price a lot, and drops right after.

 

[22522]

On classic cells, the tabs were additional pieces welded to the electrodes. These new cell electrodes have their edges laser cut then folded over as the cell is wound. So each shingle is really part of the edge of a continuous electrode, not a separate or discontinuous piece.

Isn't tabless what happens when you put a roll of velum in a tube that is not exactly rolled squarely and you bend the edges of the sheet in towards the middle? If you have enough margin/offset on the separator it will be fine.

 

[lafrisbee]

If the Kato Road pilot plant will have a 10 GWh capacity that will be reached in about a year, what will they use all those batteries for? They can't all be used for Tesla Model S Plaid right? So something does not add up!

What do you guys think? How many KWh will a Model S Plaid batterypack have in it? Will they announce some other models with the new battery within the next year? Plaid Model X and Model 3/Y?

Semi

 

[powertoold]

Tesla is planning to ramp from essentially 0GWh to 100GWh per year of cell manufacturing in 18 months? What kind of witchcraft is this?

 

[MABMAB]

The big bull thesis confirmed.
Plaid S perfect to up the ante, bluffs will be called.
Capacity questions sorta answered, execution needed now.
My long standing concern about number of batteries needed assuaged some.
Trevor Milton bias crept in some, how much was musk promoting things that don't exist yet?

 

[Sanny]

I think analysts learned a lot about Tesla in the last couple of years. And today's event is very easy to put a price tag on - plug in a 3 TW number into your 2030 models, calculate discounted cash flow and here's your price tag. I expect to see upgrades and big buyers reaction faster this time.
Another easy way to look at the things in perspective - Tesla plans to have 3/20=15% of the whole new energy market by 2030.

 

[MABMAB]

Very good post. One correction, battery plants are 200 gwh per year not 20. A single line will be 20.

Username checks out.

Thanks for the Q?A part of things, thats when I had to sit down for dinner

 

[Singuy]

View attachment 591108

I'm assuming the 1 year delay is due to the virus? Frustrating for it to slip a whole year in only a year.

I think the delay is due to wanting to beat Lucid in every way. I don't think increase in range was on the table, just increase in performance using a larger battery pack. This was a tweet from Feb

Comment:

The Plaid S is probably gonna hit 500 miles of range (unless you actually drive it like it's got Plaid mode as Elon has already stated that it will have a battery pack larger than 100kWh. That's my guess at least!

Elon:

"There’s a tough performance vs range tradeoff. Plaid has absurd performance, while holding range roughly constant."

Then they smack you with 520+ range WTF!

 

[Boomer19]

I just realized something else. In their 5 components to cost saving none of them were "we are making it ourselves so we don't have to pay someone else's profit margin."

That's got to count for at least 10% no?

Edit: the way Elon talked about handling, he must have driven a prototype with these.

And I feel like the fact someone was able to take a picture and leak the cell implies there are a lot more people on that factory floor area than they are letting on.

I think they really downplayed their success here. Like I think when they say they have to work out stuff on the anode it's not a "if doesn't work" its a "we know we can kick out a little faster than this"

drew mentioned 1000s of cells and kilometers of electrodes

so that may equate to some of them being ‘equipment tested’

 

[mickle]

CT isn't due until late 21, so its likely Plaid will be out first.

If Plaid Model S is using all 5 of the technologies mentioned in todays presentation to increase its range, it means the Plaid model S will be an all new design using the new casts and structural batteries - so its not just the new battery cell it is waiting on but the new model S production line changes (cast machines) as well.

With respect to casting, does anyone know how difficult it might be for them to just swap out the molds on these giant machines? For example, could they cast model S parts for a day or two and then switch back to model Y for the rest of the month?

 

[elasalle]

30-40% increase in deliveries
.. expectations will be base lined in 10 days

buying the dip

market is short sighted and can’t see beyond 1 year

 

[mblakele]

In Asian trade, shares of Panasonic & LG Chem are falling following the Tesla announcement.

People who actually pay attention to battery industry know exactly what happened today.

Is that a wise reaction by the market, any more than TSLA dropping AH?

Throughout the presentation, Musk emphasized that Tesla wants help with its mission. That was partly aimed at recruiting, but definitely at other manufacturers too. Musk also touched on opening Tesla's patents. So I'd think they're working with Panasonic and other battery makers to license the new technologies we heard about today, and on very generous terms.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Tesla basically said that there is so much demand for their products that they need to massively increase the world's battery supply and have all kinds of innovations to make that happen quickly and cheaply. Yet there are people who hear that and decide to sell TSLA. Crazy.