Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kanweg]

Set a series of limit orders at $365, $360, $355, and $350.

This was while the price was last near $370. Price is headed the other way.

I understand your avatar now.

 

[jhm]

I understand your avatar now.

The Power Within!

 

[Singuy]

By the way, I'm holding off on buying more Teslas until they have new batteries (could be a while). I considered the Y pre-Battery Day, but I'm going to hold off for the truck which is what really fills my needs better - with A/C for the cargo area. Oh I really hope they do that!!!

And there inlies the Osborne problem.

Cars are a matter of need. When Osborne corporation was a thing, computers were a matter of tinker toys for geeks. I seriously doubt some kids who needs to go to college next week will wait for the next bigger and better processor.

So for most people who doesn't throw 40-50k around for shits and giggles, the car industry doesn't suffer as much from osborne as you think. If my car just died or my kid just turned 16 and I want a new car and have been eyeing Tesla's, I am not waiting until the next great thing.

Over 35% of Tesla's competitive segment are people who had a lease. Tens of thousands of people daily are out of a lease, they are not waiting another year for Tesla's better batteries.

 

[Stinger63]

Working on solutions ≠ what Tesla is planning to do.

We're talking 2 different things here. Tesla the car company has competition from the high end market (Porsche and Lucid if it ever comes to production) and general market from VW, Renault, Kia, Hyundai, etc.). There are also privately funded research companies working very hard on the future of batteries which may or may not be able to leapfrog Tesla's considerable advances. Suggesting Tesla is alone in the space is talking with blinders on. If you talk about Tesla the company intent on replacing polluting energies with electric solutions, there I agree. That's why the share price is so much higher than regular car companies, not because Tesla cars are so much better than other cars.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Curious... What's with that large number of puts at $40. And it sure seems like a lot more green than red off the the right. All those trades lose if it closes below say $400? That was a lot of ppl banking on Battery Day. Good luck.

Meanwhile, next week looks to be developing some focus at $350. Am I reading this right (or is next week too distant, lol)?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Cars are a matter of need. When Osborne corporation was a thing, computers were a matter of tinker toys for geeks. I seriously doubt some kids who needs to go to college next week will wait for the next bigger and better processor.

So for most people who doesn't throw 40-50k around for shits and giggles, the car industry doesn't suffer as much from osborne as you think. If my car just died or my kid just turned 16 and I want a new car and have been eyeing Tesla's, I am not waiting until the next great thing.

I hope you're correct!

 

[Beltsbear]

By the way, I'm holding off on buying more Teslas until they have new batteries (could be a while). I considered the Y pre-Battery Day, but I'm going to hold off for the truck which is what really fills my needs better - with A/C for the cargo area. Oh I really hope they do that!!!

And there inlies the Osborne problem.

The cybertruck did Osborne my plans for a Y. But new batteries won’t be a huge value proposition for the buyer. Especially in the USA. For Europe, if the Y was exported, the new one from Berlin would Osborne it. But Tesla never exported it. The die cast Y will be cheaper then the 3 over there.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Cars are a matter of need. When Osborne corporation was a thing, computers were a matter of tinker toys for geeks. I seriously doubt some kids who needs to go to college next week will wait for the next bigger and better processor.

So for most people who doesn't throw 40-50k around for shits and giggles, the car industry doesn't suffer as much from osborne as you think. If my car just died or my kid just turned 16 and I want a new car and have been eyeing Tesla's, I am not waiting until the next great thing.

Let me try again... I think many are replacing their existing ICE vehicles and absolutely waiting for the right replacement. That's my story as I still have a Nissan Murano. So different customer types, but I'm a bargain buyer and really don't like losing $ on any purchase - even depreciation. Old batteries die hard.

 

[Open Interest]

Set a series of limit orders at $365, $360, $355, and $350.

This was while the price was last near $370. Price is headed the other way.

Please set more

 

[Robocop]

Interestingly, the Osborne Effect wikipedia page includes some interviews from employees who worked there at the time, indicating the whole thing may actually be a myth Osborne effect - Wikipedia due to other circumstances causing their losses / downfall. Osborne effect makes rational sense, but one would think the list of examples here would be much longer if it was a massive problem? Or perhaps it is so bad that it's always avoided, hence the short list of examples. Not sure.

Edit: Great minds think alike! Keeping this up for my comment anyway.

 

[dakh]

The cybertruck did Osborne my plans for a Y. But new batteries won’t be a huge value proposition for the buyer. Especially in the USA. For Europe, if the Y was exported, the new one from Berlin would Osborne it. But Tesla never exported it. The die cast Y will be cheaper then the 3 over there.

You are missing out on the ability to lock it autopilot price, which might or is even likely to make that model y actually appreciate in value. Also resale value is quite good on them. I'm taking delivery of one soon mostly because of those two reasons. Well, and it'd be nice to drive it until the truck shows up.

 

[Gilesmiles]

Just curious: Did you wait for battery day announcements to pull the trigger or was this always part of your plans? Anecdotal evidence but given how much Elon seems to have been worried about Osborning it's good to get a recent buyer's perspective.

Ordered it in June, picked it up just over a week ago in Tilburg,Netherlands. Got a PPF wrap, Modesta coating, blinding-wrap on the rear windows and Chrome delete done so had to wait a week and a half. Last week i was pretty anxious about a possible S/X refresh but even if that had happened it would have taken at least a year for those vehicles to appear in Europe. FYI my S is NOT a Long Range Plus. Just an ordinary Long Range. That’s all we can get here

 

[Cape Coddess]

You are missing out on the ability to lock it autopilot price, which might or is even likely to make that model y actually appreciate in value. Also resale value is quite good on them. I'm taking delivery of one soon mostly because of those two reasons. Well, and it'd be nice to drive it until the truck shows up.

Will you trade the Y in for the truck ? Or keep both?

 

[Tim S]

Robinhood gave me a margin call, the second time I've ever had one. I had to sell one share so then I could have the $ to buy back some soon to be expired this Friday puts on some SPWR to clear up some $$.

Not advice, but I bought a couple of $200 puts expiring tomorrow for $2 per contract to satisfy a margin call. Each one added about $12,000 of margin to my account.

 

[jhm]

Upgraded my laptop with Bose speakers. Now I can listen to Wham! while I trade Tesla.

 

[SMAlset]

By the way, I'm holding off on buying more Teslas until they have new batteries (could be a while). I considered the Y pre-Battery Day, but I'm going to hold off for the truck which is what really fills my needs better - with A/C for the cargo area. Oh I really hope they do that!!!

And there inlies the Osborne problem.

If I held off waiting for the Model 3 AWD units to be available to order. Had wanted a sunroof and ventilated seats like our 2017 MS. Pulled the trigger however when they also announced AWD orders placed before 7/1/18 would be grandfathered in on the audio/map package. Don’t regret getting the car I did at all. Been two years years yesterday since picking up. Would still be waiting if I held out.

 

[Big Time]

Trending up? Hope so

 

[jhm]

Please set more

Oh, I can go lower.

 

[Robocop]

Also, Elon announces not one, but TWO future generations of vehicles to follow the roadster, in 2006. The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) Deliveries begin on that third generation (Model 3) in July 2017. So if the Osborne effect is so bad, there's at least one guy who DGAF. 11 years.

 

[Singuy]

Let me try again... I think many are replacing their existing ICE vehicles and absolutely waiting for the right replacement. That's my story as I still have a Nissan Murano. So different customer types, but I'm a bargain buyer and really don't like losing $ on any purchase - even depreciation. Old batteries die hard.

Me either, but Tesla is in a segment where depreciation is not a consideration. In fact 35% of the people in this segment would be happy just to pay for the depreciation part of the car while owning zero equity.

It's all about brand image, performance, status, and how the car make you feel while still being useful as a tool. If depreciation is a factor than one should just be looking at used lexus or civics.