Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Thank you, fellow Canuck.

Out of extreme curiosity, an OffTopic question of interest to everybody :

Do you run a fast-food outlet that caters to those with social-interaction difficulties?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Me either, but Tesla is in a segment where depreciation is not a consideration. In fact 35% of the people in this segment would be happy just to pay for the depreciation part of the car while owning zero equity.

It's all about brand image, performance, status, and how the car make you feel while still being useful as a tool. If depreciation is a factor than one should just be looking at used lexus or civics.

Sorry I wasn't clear. I was comparing someone who is trying to eliminate their next ICE in their garage vs someone who needs a replacement car bc the "Engine" blew. Both can trigger the sale, but many are waiting for the right time to pull the trigger... like me I think. And if there are many like me, then Osborne effect can hurt Tesla albeit not as bad as a novel Portable Computer (to your point).

 

[UncaNed]

Even if some OEM was working on an equivalent improved battery, they still would have many rather large impediments to success. Just to name two: horizontal integration; unions.

UNIONS. Ford, GM, VW... There's no way they will ever succeed with that millstone around their necks, having to placate thieving union reps' demands in addition to trying to run their businesses. It's exactly the opposite of the enormous 2-way benefit that stock options brings employees, serving as both pay and motivator to Tesla to excel.

 

[Krugerrand]

Flipping through the channels last night I saw the strangest thing. FOXBusiness news was actually speaking positively of Tesla and Elon‘s vision for cheaper, better batteries and the future of BEV. I was shocked, and optimistic for today.

Don’t fall for it. It’s a trap.

 

[lascavarian]

I will try again tomorrow. For all I know the Superchargers are fine. Just an account access glitch related to SC billing as I see it.

Payment worked flawlessly today

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Also, Elon announces not one, but TWO future generations of vehicles to follow the roadster, in 2006. The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me) Deliveries begin on that third generation (Model 3) in July 2017. So if the Osborne effect is so bad, there's at least one guy who DGAF. 11 years.

It's amazing to me how accurate that is from 14 years ago is. Talk about coming up with a plan, sticking to it and executing. It seems like part 2 is shaping up nicely as well: Master Plan, Part Deux
There is no way the same could be done with the Battery Day plans /s

Edit: Up we go @ $390 and climbing.. Did mainstream just realize the bomb that was dropped on Tuesday?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Welp, it bounced pretty well after hitting the 50 day moving average......and my margin funds haven't clear yet

 

[AudubonB]

Cars are a matter of need. When Osborne corporation was a thing, computers were a matter of tinker toys for geeks. I seriously doubt some kids who needs to go to college next week will wait for the next bigger and better processor.

So for most people who doesn't throw 40-50k around for shits and giggles, the car industry doesn't suffer as much from osborne as you think. If my car just died or my kid just turned 16 and I want a new car and have been eyeing Tesla's, I am not waiting until the next great thing.

Over 35% of Tesla's competitive segment are people who had a lease. Tens of thousands of people daily are out of a lease, they are not waiting another year for Tesla's better batteries.

Regardless of the veracity of a parallel with Osborne-the-corporation, “Osborne Effect” has a firm and useful place in describing what could happen to a company.

 

[adiggs]

We're talking 2 different things here. Tesla the car company has competition from the high end market (Porsche and Lucid if it ever comes to production) and general market from VW, Renault, Kia, Hyundai, etc.). There are also privately funded research companies working very hard on the future of batteries which may or may not be able to leapfrog Tesla's considerable advances. Suggesting Tesla is alone in the space is talking with blinders on. If you talk about Tesla the company intent on replacing polluting energies with electric solutions, there I agree. That's why the share price is so much higher than regular car companies, not because Tesla cars are so much better than other cars.

Do you own / drive a Tesla, or have you at least test driven one?

My claim, if you're investing for the long term, is that a minimum of a test drive, and preferentially owning one as your daily driver is one of the best pieces of a long term investment, and for maintaining the conviction.

The competition you mention is, today, still hot air / talk. They might turn into serious competition, but in the hot air / talk we've been listening to since 2015ish, none of that has been realized. My own definition of 'competition' is a car model that is intended to be sold in whatever quantities are needed to satisfy customer demand. What I've seen so far (the id.4 might be an exception) is that outside of the Nissan Leaf, all other EVs that are buyable today are being built in compliance numbers, and there is no intent to make more of them than are needed for compliance purposes.

My last observation about competition from other companies - there is no actual competition, even if they're building in arbitrarily large numbers, until the car market is significantly more than 2% EVs. I don't know that level - 20%? 50%? At 20%, that is 10x todays units, most of which are Teslas. Until then, anybody selling EVs are competing with ICEV and taking sales from the ICEV market.


What Elon has said repeatedly about the major advances being worked on in research labs - bring us a working well and let's talk. Mostly there aren't any working cells brought to Tesla. If you're an independent and doing serious research into next gen batteries, and you have a breakthrough, is your first choice to talk to GM / VW / BMW / ..., or is it talking to Tesla? You know Tesla - the company that is consuming 20-50% of worldwide cell production and has now talked about plans to single handedly move the world from GWh of production to TWh?

I know -I- would rather try to improve on Tesla's technology and sell to them - way more volume, and therefore a much higher sales price available.


Not saying that my position is correct - only that these are alternative views into the same ideas.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Flipping through the channels last night I saw the strangest thing. FOXBusiness news was actually speaking positively of Tesla and Elon‘s vision for cheaper, better batteries and the future of BEV. I was shocked, and optimistic for today.

Yeah, they do that anytime Elon calls Robert Reich a moron...

♫ If you're gonna play in Texas ♫
♫ Ya gatta have a fiddel in the Band ♫​

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

green?!?!? Hey! Where are my discount shares?!??!?!

Now I'm off to go cry, wiping my tears away with my earnings.

Starting to feel anxiety as my $342 order at low BB won’t go through

 

[Singuy]

Sorry I wasn't clear. I was comparing someone who is trying to eliminate their next ICE in their garage vs someone who needs a replacement car bc the "Engine" blew. Both can trigger the sale, but many are waiting for the right time to pull the trigger... like me I think. And if there are many like me, then Osborne effect can hurt Tesla albeit not as bad as a novel Portable Computer (to your point).

We speak of Teslas pace of innovation increasing, so the wrong and right time is always right now.

 

[cricketman]

UNIONS. Ford, GM, VW... There's no way they will ever succeed with that millstone around their necks, having to placate thieving union reps' demands in addition to trying to run their businesses. It's exactly the opposite of the enormous 2-way benefit that stock options brings employees, serving as both pay and motivator to Tesla to excel.

Yes correct. Unionized workforces fundamentally oppose change

I was born a socialist in the North of England and I grew up in a time where Thatcher destroyed the Unions and all the nationalized industries in coal, steel, car manufacturing etc. My parents were so poor they had no contacts in the Unions so could not get a job (the Unions vetted all new starters, so family members and friends were chosen first). My parents loved Thatcher because she believed in individual talent and removing the social barriers to achievement.

Now I live in Spain and it is like the UK before Thatcher. The unions decide everything and workers will only work on the tasks written in a pre-assigned job specification which the unions approve for any given sector many years previously. The result is one of the highest unemployment rates in the world and close to zero innovation. Anytime a business wants to change anything, by law, the unions must approve, and they only think of themselves and have no ability to think of the future or what is right for the business.

Unions played such an important role in early industrialization to increase the quality of life of workers, but now they are a millstone around the neck of businesses and ultimately cause way more damage that they prevent.

If Tesla was unionized, every time they set up a new initiative, or invented a new automated process, the union would oppose it, and Tesla would have been bankrupt many years ago. Hence all heavily unionized companies such as GM can do is make gestures, say stuff and buy stakes in fraudulent companies such as Nikola. Meanwhile everyone as Tesla is working their ass off to make the world a better place


~~~Mod-edited to correct confusing typo~~~

 

[Mokuzai]

Finally caught up to the thread. Picked up a couple hundred more shares this morning at varying prices between $355 and $370.

Now looking forward to delivery numbers. On my drive up to Fremont on Tuesday morning I must have seen at least 40 carriers hauling Tesla's south.

 

[Krugerrand]

Interesting that I did not get the email from you!

A) it was a TEXT
B) you did not meet the criteria

 

[Krugerrand]

I did mention this months back, but feel its worth repeating...

I told my grown children that if they bought Tesla stock and then in the future they sold it at a loss I would pay to make up the difference I thought this was a great idea because I have done so well in Tesla it wouldn't matter to me if I had to give some back.
Worked out great! Now my children follow Tesla everyday because they did take me up on the offer.
I'm thinking of renewing it again.

Yeah, no. Not doing that. I don’t love nor care about anyone ‘that’ much. But you’re a better person than I.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I still don't see how you can drive from $368 to $392 in a blink, but on fairly low volume. Certainly that's TSLA's signature move, having zero sellers when anyone show up to buy, but it's confusing to me.

Does this mean essentially TSLA had been pushed down artificially on heavier volume while no "real" transactions were taking place?

 

[Singuy]

So my parents watch Tesla stock analysts who are Chinese on TV. They said buy whatever you can under 400 no matter the price and then forget about it for years. This was their take post battery day presentation.

 

[SOULPEDL]

We speak of Teslas pace of innovation increasing, so the wrong and right time is always right now.

Confucius, is that you?

Ya, they do innovation well and I still have to look or use the ICE in my garage on occasion. Maybe I should consider used until I get the good stuff. There has to be a devaluation somewhat of all those tiny batteries out there as of this week... (that generate heat from those stupid Tabs and are so heavy!) Just like pre Oct 2016 FSD missing some cameras.

Sorry about the OT re my life choices. But I do think this Osborne thing is important and could still bite Tesla, or delay growth that could unwind dramatically once available. And the whole reason the 1M mile battery mention was absent on BD.

 

[jhm]

I feel so validated knowing that Samsung is bring flip phones back. I especially like the Galaxy Fold2.