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Conversely....
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https://seekingalpha.com/article/25...-tesla-to-sell-500000-cars-in-2020-are-absurd


i hit disagree by accident instead of funny.

my tmc trigger finger accuracy with comment reaction choices is ~70% on the iphone. am i the only one who can’t hit the broad side of a barn with likes, funnies, etc, using mobile? and i’m only 41, with good vision and motor skills. jeeze
(sorry, weekend thoughts)
 
Weekend OT:
I just realized that my share of Tesla I own produces a few cars this year and will produce a few cars every month (when Tesla produces 4M cars/year)
My part of Tesla will also produce more than a dozen Megawatt of battery storeage per year when the company produces 3TW pa.

I just realiazed that I own a relevant part of the 1B outstanding shares ;-) I proud and happy :)


i think mine may have paid for the ‘no parking’ sign next to the entrance of the factory :rolleyes:

edit: damn @CorneliusXX beat me to it with the snacks
 
Roadrunner is building high nickel cells only for now:

Whole Mars Catalog @WholeMarsBlog · 1h
Replying to @elonmusk

"elon, are you guys making 4680 cells with three different cathodes? or when you talked about a diversified approach were you talking about your external suppliers?"

Elon Musk @elonmusk · 1h

"Suppliers. We’re only doing high energy nickel ourselves, at least for now. Also, maybe the presentation wasn’t clear that we’ve actually had our cells in packs driving cars for several months. Prototypes are trivial, volume production is hard."​

Cheers!
 
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We still don't know whether those cells in those packs are counted as prototype or production

does it matter much at this point?

drew said they’ve done 10s of thousands of cells and 1000s of kilometers of electrode

did the plaid at laguna seca have 4680s?

protype/pilot/production - important thing is:
elon said volume production will need some time, in his tweet prior to BD, and in the BD presentation.
- benchtop to lab to pilot to volume production - with new problems to solve at each step, i’d guess known unknowns, unknown knows, and unknown unknowns :eek:
(sorry for the mcnamara rumsfeld lingo)
 
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Whole Mars Catalog @WholeMarsBlog · 1h
Replying to @elonmusk

"elon, are you guys making 4680 cells with three different cathodes? or when you talked about a diversified approach were you talking about your external suppliers?"
Elon Musk @elonmusk · 1h
"Suppliers. We’re only doing high energy nickel ourselves, at least for now. Also, maybe the presentation wasn’t clear that we’ve actually had our cells in packs driving cars for several months. Prototypes are trivial, volume production is hard."​

I gathered that they had the batteries in production based on the event...I mean they showed the plaid S dominating Laguna Seca...

Is wall street really this dense? Stupid question I know...clearly we all know the answer.

And the institutional investors got a tour of the actual production line confirmed by Gali. There's no excuse...the stock should be to the moon now.
 
Silicon anode 5% improvement - Ranking last because very little was said about this step, and it's a bit out of left field. Nobody was expecting some sort of elastic polymer to allow for silicon expansion.
Yeah, it's in the scientific literature:

Huang, Q., Song, J., Gao, Y. et al. Supremely elastic gel polymer electrolyte enables a reliable electrode structure for silicon-based anodes. Nat Commun 10, 5586 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-13434-5

This year old paper shows its still a work in progress, but colombic eff. is already over 99.9% and it is an active topic of research.

Cheers!
 
i hit disagree by accident instead of funny.

my tmc trigger finger accuracy with comment reaction choices is ~70% on the iphone. am i the only one who can’t hit the broad side of a barn with likes, funnies, etc, using mobile? and i’m only 41, with good vision and motor skills. jeeze
(sorry, weekend thoughts)
If yer only 41 yer not a Boomer. If yer motor skills & vision are going, then maybe you are, but that is coincident with forgetting how old you are.
 
It just occurred to me that the survival rate of aircraft accidents will go up significantly when jet fuel is eliminated from the equation. Some of our resident aviation experts can disabuse me of this notion, but I believe most accidents occur at landing and take off and it’s the burning jet fuel that causes the most damage. I know batteries burn, but usually not instantaneously, thus allowing for precious minutes for survivors to evacuate. I hope this is another way Tesla’s battery innovations can benefit society.

They surveyed the land and liked the lithium content of the clay, the silicon rich sand and adjacent salt deposit. They'll be doing research, loads of cells, materials processing - oh and they might need an airport for SEVTOL - Supersonic Electric Vertical Take Off and landing.

It's interesting that most of the electric plane research projects are low altitude light planes, when it might be better for an electric (or hybrid) plane to be optimised for high-latitude, thin air, less drag flight. You need lots of power for take-offs, aborted landings, otherwise you want efficient cruise. Optionally at a high speed if you want supersonic, less important if replacing Boeing's MBA-optimised failures.
 
I think the 'solar panels' are actually thermal hot water tubes. If you look closely you can see through the 'panels'. These tube are mostly manufactured in China and afford excellent energy efficiency.

They appear to be Evacuated Tube Solar collectors for generating hot water. Usually used in domestic hot water situations and very common in China. This type of collector generally generates much hotter water than a flat panel, beyond boiling pooint in a pressurised system. The amount of panels they have would generate a trivial amount of hot water for a facility of that size so not sure what they would be used for. Possibly to locally boost the water temperature from hot water produced using a heat pump.
 
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It just occurred to me that the survival rate of aircraft accidents will go up significantly when jet fuel is eliminated from the equation. Some of our resident aviation experts can disabuse me of this notion, but I believe most accidents occur at landing and take off and it’s the burning jet fuel that causes the most damage. I know batteries burn, but usually not instantaneously, thus allowing for precious minutes for survivors to evacuate. I hope this is another way Tesla’s battery innovations can benefit society.

Accident Statistics
79459DAD-3A97-4568-8EFF-928F7ADB3056.jpeg


If I interpret this correctly, then no, most accidents are loss of control inflight (LOC-I) and controlled flight into terrain (CFIT). Fatalities probably don’t depend on fuel load.
 
"Suppliers. We’re only doing high energy nickel ourselves, at least for now. Also, maybe the presentation wasn’t clear that we’ve actually had our cells in packs driving cars for several months. Prototypes are trivial, volume production is hard."​

I expect they would be using the CATL LFP cells for shorter range applications while they build 4680 production capacity. Troy had noted a rumor that the current 10 day shutdown in Shanghai will be used to change the SR+ packs over to LFP. According to CATL their LFP packs are also meant to be used in cars outside of China, so possibly Fremont SR+ at some point.

But I can't see CATL continuing to scale LFP production to meet Teslas long term production needs. Especially with SR+ constitutuing nearly half of Model 3 production. Once Tesla has scaled 4680 production facilities they will likely introduce their own LFP cathodes in 4680 cells for shorter range products. Possibly as early as sometime in 2022.
 
It just occurred to me that the survival rate of aircraft accidents will go up significantly when jet fuel is eliminated from the equation. Some of our resident aviation experts can disabuse me of this notion, but I believe most accidents occur at landing and take off and it’s the burning jet fuel that causes the most damage. I know batteries burn, but usually not instantaneously, thus allowing for precious minutes for survivors to evacuate. I hope this is another way Tesla’s battery innovations can benefit society.

I think most fatalities in aircraft accidents are a result of going from 300 mph to 0 mph in an uncomfortably brief period of time.