ZachF
Active Member
Yeah. I couldn't really find a straight answer when I looked.
I think LG manufactured more of the Bolt than GM did.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Yeah. I couldn't really find a straight answer when I looked.
I think LG manufactured more of the Bolt than GM did.
ZachF
Active Member
TE growth will certainly outpace auto, but I don't see how energy will dwarf auto when Elon thinks automobiles will need ~half of the batteries, and a battery in a car will always cost more than just a battery.
SoGA Fan Club
Member
ZachF
Active Member
Residential energy use is only a small slice of the overall energy pie, and residences that can support a solar system are a slice of that slice.
Part of the reason that renewables will kill fossil fuels is because they will lower costs.... lower costs = lower % of world GDP.
Tesla is trying to mine its own Lithium after dropping M&A plan
The automaker held discussions in recent months with Cypress Development Corp., which is seeking to extract lithium from clay deposits in southwest Nevada, but the parties didn’t reach a deal, the people said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public. The electric car maker, which has vowed to slash its battery costs by 50%, instead focused on the plan that Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk outlined last week to dig for lithium on its own in the state.
I have a feeling the conversation went something like this:
Elon: Went want to buy you, it would great for us both and the world!
Cypress: Sure, but we want a lot money!
Elon thinks to himself: Hmm how much money should this cost on a physics first principle? Should not be too expensive
Elon: Screw you guys, we’ll mine our own damned lithium
The automaker held discussions in recent months with Cypress Development Corp., which is seeking to extract lithium from clay deposits in southwest Nevada, but the parties didn’t reach a deal, the people said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public. The electric car maker, which has vowed to slash its battery costs by 50%, instead focused on the plan that Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk outlined last week to dig for lithium on its own in the state.
I have a feeling the conversation went something like this:
Elon: Went want to buy you, it would great for us both and the world!
Cypress: Sure, but we want a lot money!
Elon thinks to himself: Hmm how much money should this cost on a physics first principle? Should not be too expensive
Elon: Screw you guys, we’ll mine our own damned lithium
ZachF
Active Member
Just FYI, assuming Elon's numbers for ~10TWh per year of energy storage is correct, and they can sell them for ~$60/KWh in 2035, that's a ~$600 billion per year market worldwide.
The auto market by then will probably be a ~$3 trillion per year market.
The auto market by then will probably be a ~$3 trillion per year market.
As well as, and I say this with no trucking experience, I have a feeling those Walmart trucks are not going around the country on random, mostly unpredictable paths like a consumer vehicle would. They may have specific routes between logistics depos, harbors and railway terminals, warehouses and Walmart stores.
In such a scenario, most charging will be done overnight at the base, but should there be a need for a few Megachargers, they will know along which routes to build those. Also, as the energy requirements of such a beast would be pretty significant with considerable lead time on the utilities behalf, I would think such work has already been in progress for many many months or years since the unveiling of the Semi.
He did. Still, he's not entirely correct. Legacy profit sources in the US do vary, but tend to be primarily from 1) wholesale and retail financing (loans, leases,ancillary products such as extended warranties/service contracts) and then 2) parts. Despite his generalization his point is actually strengthened by added information. The F&I business is mostly non-profit for Tesla, and is inversely related to creditworthiness and education of customers, so Tesla is ill-positioned for high F&I income anyway.
The message in this is not complex: Tesla profits derive almost entirely from new vehicle sales and new TE sales. nearly every service category, even leases and collision repair are structured to be essentially breakeven. Even the Supercharger network is structured to be long-term breakeven.
There are other categories, though, that are different and are the Tesla magic equivalent to those calegories so crucial to other OEM profits. Those are 1) paid upgrades, 2) Autopilot (i.e. EAP & FSD), 3) Software + Connectivity. These are just beginning to be evident. Over time they'll become increasingly material, especially as subscription services in all three categories begin in earnest.
In one traditional F&I category Tesla is now experimenting. It remains to be seen how Tesla Insurance plays out but there is huge potential worldwide for auto insurance that ties directly to actual vehicle behavior patterns. That has major potential to totally alter traditional vehicle insurance actuarial processes, but using facts rather than inferences.
So, I think Elon was using shorthand for traditional auto industry vs Tesla, skipping the major Tesla advantage: direct distribution. That enables huge other benefits.
As the fleet ages the Tesla benefits will actually grow from all those factors, just not so much from the pure parts play of other OEMs.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Elon likely means half of Tesla's battery production will go to T.E. The BD slide showed Powerwall having a NMC chemistry (likely v.light on the 'C'). Here, production will always be constrained by the availability of nickel.
However, Tesla will use 3rd-party Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) cells for their mainstream T.E. products: Powerpack and Megapack. No such limits exist on the availability of Iron. LFP chemistry will also appear in Tesla's Std Range cars (ie: the MiC Model 3 SR which may begin shipping in Q4). Model 2 will almost certainly get the most cost effective battery chemistry, which going forward will be LFP.
The real unanswered question is when Tesla will begin manufacturing their own 'tabless' LFP cells. I think the priority that Tesla places on that effort will be a direct result of future deliveries of 3rd party LFP cells. If they can deliver, fine. If not, stand back! WE goin do this!
Cheers!
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Energy isn't about selling hunks of batteries, it's going to be about holistic solutions you can plug right into your grid to decentralize and save money.
My assumption is there will be off-the-shelf solutions pairing megapacks with software and management services. One day your an inefficient and corrupt utility, the next you're a completely transparent and decentralized energy market.
My assumption is there will be off-the-shelf solutions pairing megapacks with software and management services. One day your an inefficient and corrupt utility, the next you're a completely transparent and decentralized energy market.
ZachF
Active Member
My very rough math seems to indicate you'd need like 50,000 GW of solar to replace everything.
If they last 25 years, that means you need ~2,000GW per year.
Solar panel wholesale prices are dirt cheap (like $0.20 per watt). So the cost to produce those is about $400b per year
Here is why Solar + Batteries + EVs replaces Fossil cars and generation:
Fossil era:
$2,500b in ICE Autos per year
~$1,000b in ICE auto parts per year
$1,300b in Oil production
~$500b in oil refining
~$500b in Natural Gas production
~$500b in coal production
=$6,300b total (about 9% of global GDP)
...can be replaced with:
Renewable era:
$2,500 in EV production
$250b in EV parts
$600b in stationary storage
$400b in solar panels
=$3,750b total... $2,550 in savings for the global population, not counting the horrible externalities of fossil fuels of course, or the hundreds of billions spent on war machines to keep the supply lines safe.
If they last 25 years, that means you need ~2,000GW per year.
Solar panel wholesale prices are dirt cheap (like $0.20 per watt). So the cost to produce those is about $400b per year
Here is why Solar + Batteries + EVs replaces Fossil cars and generation:
Fossil era:
$2,500b in ICE Autos per year
~$1,000b in ICE auto parts per year
$1,300b in Oil production
~$500b in oil refining
~$500b in Natural Gas production
~$500b in coal production
=$6,300b total (about 9% of global GDP)
...can be replaced with:
Renewable era:
$2,500 in EV production
$250b in EV parts
$600b in stationary storage
$400b in solar panels
=$3,750b total... $2,550 in savings for the global population, not counting the horrible externalities of fossil fuels of course, or the hundreds of billions spent on war machines to keep the supply lines safe.
As per my TD account, Walmart is increasing semi truck order to 130 units.
Agree. But as I’m sure you know, fleet aging is not until next decade if Tesla maintains growth as expected. At 50 % / year, the average Tesla will be < 2 years old the entire time. Obviously some vehicles become very old this decade, but the percentage is minuscule.
ZachF
Active Member
Again, residential energy use is only a small slice of the pie.
An aluminum smelting facility will literally use the same power as a city of one million people. There are server farms that use the same electricity as a cities of a few hundred thousand. The grid isn't going anywhere.
The primary power source of future America will probably be fields of PV in the desert southwest.
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Welcome....we are a little less "meme'e" here.
Mostly welcoming.....few stray cat's out and about.
True! Now imagine how much the cost of the Supercharger network will be defrayed by revenue and how much Gm will increase from subscription sale of connectivity, EAP/FSD, games, etc. Insurance could well develop that way also, but there are more impediments to that one, mostly legal/accounting ones.
Ditto. Model Y's pace and scale of improvement has become a dilemma for those who are waiting to buy but don't want to miss out on some truly major improvements expected in the next 12 - 24 months. My understanding at this time is Berlin MY production will have both one piece rear and front body castings and improved paint shop. Texas GF seems to be only 6 - 9 months behind Berlin.
We can only speculate on when it will begin cranking out MYs for East coast. My guess is the MYs initially produced at Texas will have both single piece castings, but it may be another year before the new cells and cell integration are added, improving range, weight and driving dynamics.
ZachF
Active Member
BTW, here's an awesome energy flow chart for the US:
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