They certainly sounded like they knew what they were talking about, and got my hopes up last night for a blowout report. Turns out they were way off. Does anyone know if they have explained themselves today?Interesting Twitter thread from Snow Bull Capital. Have not heard of them before but apparently they were 98.1% accurate on their P&D estimate last quarter. They are forecasting 168.9k total production and 157.5k total deliveries for Q3.
https://twitter.com/snowbullcapital/status/1311757704948584464
The CEO of the firm has interesting color on Giga Shanghai. Twitter thread is linked and his findings are below:
https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1311761299366387721
In China, MIC SR+ Model 3s are already rolling off the line with CATL’s LFP batteries. Interestingly, the new batteries weigh the same as LG Chem’s batteries in MIC LR RWD Model 3s.
In terms of MIC Model Y, the Fremont Model Y assembly engineering team has been at GF3 during the factory ‘shut down’ last week building NEW Model Y lines (not retooling existing Model 3 lines, as many thought).
The Model Y lines are going to be nearly identical to the most recent Model Y line at Fremont, at first. That won't take long.
Also, retooling for the new Kuka robots has already begun at GF3. The same German engineering team that programmed the Kukas at Fremont (and GF1 & GF2) worked alongside the Tesla Model Y assembly engineering team from Fremont during last week’s factory shut down.
In addition to the German Kuka team, the Japanese Fanuc team was also ‘retooling’ (programming) the new Fanuc robots at GF3 at the end of August. We believe this was primarily on the Model 3 lines.
We expect this to inevitably increase production efficiency as it did when similar lines were retooled with the same Kuka and Fanuc robots at Fremont, increasing production efficiency by 55-60%.
So, with GF3 being more automated than Fremont, the addition of the new robots to the already-highly automated Model 3 lines could get production up to >800/day (+60%).
This, and the addition of a third shift DURING the Chinese national holiday starting last night (when most thought it would be completely shut down for the next week) increases our Q4 estimates for Model 3 production out of Shanghai to 62,855.
One of the indicators we will be looking for in Q4 is weaker #Model3 demand in China due to the impressive domestic EV competition, namely BYD Han and Xiaopeng P7.
Such an indication of decreased demand would be if GF3 begins exporting MIC Model 3s to South Korea in Q4. If domestic demand for MIC Model 3s is REALLY weak, we could see retooling of Model 3 lines for RHD in Q4.
We don’t expect Tesla to retool GF3 Model 3 lines for RHD until Q1 2021. We think the RHD retooling will likely take place during the Chinese New Year, as initial RHD retooling took 8 days in Fremont.
A note on RHD retooling: once a line is initially retooled, switching between LHD and RHD becomes really easy (~3 hrs), as the robots are already programmed.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
They certainly sounded like they knew what they were talking about, and got my hopes up last night for a blowout report. Turns out they were way off. Does anyone know if they have explained themselves today?
Good grief. They are still stuck on the “autopilot” name issue and as far as driver monitoring, that goes away with FSD. Hence no need to improve. And as far as disengaging completely when wheel is forcefully turned, I’m GLAD it does that.
From the article:
“Tesla scored in the middle of the pack in the Euro NCAP ratings, because they found that it over-sells Autopilot capabilities, doesn’t have a sophisticated driver monitoring system and because Autopilot disengages completely when a driver turns the wheel strongly.
“Tesla’s system name Autopilot is inappropriate as it suggests full automation,” Euro NCAP wrote in a statement. “The promotional material suggests automation where the handbook correctly indicates the limitations of the system capabilities, which could lead to confusion.”
checked their twitter and they have not yet
but in prior twits they have all kinds of ‘data points’ to explain their estimates, blah blah
Well at least they explained why they rated it lower.
Yes, their plans to fleece investors is going well.
The M3 actually did best above all other cars in 2/3 of the ratings. It only got a moderate ranking overall because it scored low in 'Driver Engagement'... which is kind of the least important really when talking about self-driving cars
Well, no real surprise that a European company being paid by a European government agency finds that big European car companies fare better an American car company. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you. Just a matter of giving a large weighting to less important safety factors.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Surprised to not see it on here yesterday, maybe I missed it, but it seems like the softbank whale is back in action on the options market for fang stocks. Perhaps this is why we saw a premiums rise a tad for TSLA yesterday afternoon?
Would love it if it's $200 million start yesterday turns into another $4 billion buying spree that shoots iv way up next week or even this afternoon.
Would love it if it's $200 million start yesterday turns into another $4 billion buying spree that shoots iv way up next week or even this afternoon.
Obviously nobody around them has ever been a pilot who used an autopilot. Pilots obsessively monitor everything due to inevitable problems of operator or machine error.
Autopilot is a perfect name for driver assistance, just as it is for pilot assistance.
But that is just the overall rating. In terms of performance Tesla rated #1 for both driving assistance and safety backup:
So they still believe they can fleece the investors?
Short short attack at 10:53. They're still trying to pin it. I bought it. May god have mercy on their soul. lol
You guys forget, Gordon would say it peaked in the US. Now that Tesla has 2 gigafactories and on different continents, of course they're selling more but they're not growing.....
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Upthread I posted the specific moment in Rob's video where he said he expected inventory to increase slightly in Q3. In fact, Tesla reported 17 days of inventory in Q2, so 18 to 17 days couldn't have been a drop. (Not that it really matters--he wasn't predicting a significant change anyway).
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