Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vikings123]

Nice rise in premarket again today.

Then a slow fade like yesterday?

Yeah the script is getting old. Where is the volatility . Speaking of volatility I fully expect IV to spike quite a bit between now and the 21st, macros hopefully cooperate.

We gradually keep upping the mid BB, started at 411 on Monday and as of last night’s close we were at 421.

With stimulus talks heating up and assuming a deal gets done I expect markets to go higher and Tesla way higher given how nicely it’s set up technically. I don’t know what happens in late Oct or Nov but imo we have another big run coming up for Tesla this month.

Remember the narrative for the S&P non inclusion was Tesla cannot be profitable without reg credits. That changes forever with this quarter so the wise men/women will feel the pressure even more.

 

[scaesare]

As was pointed out, Tesla said it is working on Insurance 2.0 and will implement that before rolling out all over. I'm sure they've learned a lot about how to implement the business for real and scale it worldwide.

Now, as to why insurance.
1. Tesla insources everything, because they believe they can do it better.
2. Insurance is an information game, and they have way more information about their cars and drivers than anybody else.
3. Like every ICE idiot, insurance company people don't understand EVs, and compensate by overcharging.
4. Tesla perceives insurance (same as service) issues as trivial compared to engineering issues, so why not do it?
5. As autopilot gets better, accidents become fewer. Only Tesla is equipped to notice this in realtime.
6. Getting better information on repair costs allows Tesla to improve their vehicles faster.
7. Tesla can make good money off the business, while not letting their owners get cheated.

This is all so obvious, I'm not sure why there's any question about it. Even though, just as with service, Tesla will have a lot of trouble admitting that their perception of #4 doesn't reflect the real world. Insurance, like service, is messy. But only in the transition, because with full self-driving the need for either becomes drastically less. And, in the end, Tesla will have a sales model where you get the car and everything is taken care of -- no hassle.

As am adjunct to #2, I suspect the in-car camera could (with driver acceptance) give them some interesting data that will have impact as well.

 

[Todd Burch]

Rain delay. No records today.

It says the video goes live, not that it's live video. Could be some nice Plaid footage recorded earlier . And hi Naperville, I grew up in Glenview!

 

[Tslynk67]

Rain delay. No records today.

I'm pretty sure it's pre-recorded...

Nice rise in premarket again today.

Then a slow fade like yesterday?

Target now is $427.50, too many puts on $420 and about evens on $425... Of course this varies throughout the day, but if the music stopped now...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's today's Tech chart as of 09:30 AM

Note that the Mid-BB was 423.91 at the Open.

Cheers!

 

[Mo City]

Am I the only one concerned the growing relationship between SpaceX and the US military will negatively impact Tesla in China at some point?

The US military and Elon Musk are planning a 7,500 mph rocket that can deliver weapons anywhere in the world in an hour

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

Start at 5:48... enjoy

He's got a Part 2 that's only a week old:

Credit to this man's patience and calm/cool/collected demeaner. He doesn't act like a hysterical man-child and brings up legitimate complaints without going overboard.

One YouTube review does not a trend make and may be he just got a lemon, but in the words of this reviewer, "Audi has been making cars for 120 years..." and he had to get the passenger side repainted 3x due to poor paint from the factory (that the Audi dealers confirmed and showed him other crappily painted cars in the dealership) and after fixing the sunroof leak on the passenger side, it now leaks on BOTH sides.

Somebody has often said "manufacturing is REALLY hard" and I think the drumbeat of, "well by going with an ESTABLISHED automaker over Tesla, at least I will be guaranteed [insert random quip] won't happen!" The competition is coming, they say, though this gives Tesla no excuse to not continue to try and improve on quality and reliable manufacturing. As various YouTube reviews have also showed for Tesla, they are far from perfect, but as this frustrated Etron owner demonstrates, the grass isn't always greener.

 

[Paul_SF]

Am I the only one concerned the growing relationship between SpaceX and the US military will negatively impact Tesla in China at some point?

The US military and Elon Musk are planning a 7,500 mph rocket that can deliver weapons anywhere in the world in an hour

yes, you might be the only one concerned with that. I’m not.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Another Unintended Consequences of the Clean Air nuts who think they have the answer to the Enviroment!




This is a sad story of the depression that can haunt a man.


Marcel was sick and tired of the world; of Covid 19, Brexit, Russian belligerence, global warming, racial tensions, and the rest of the disturbing stories that occupy media headlines.

Marcel drove his car into his garage and then sealed every doorway and window as best he could. He got back into his car and wound down all the windows, selected his favorite radio station and started the car.

Four days later, a worried neighbor peered through his garage window and saw him in the car. She notified the emergency services and they broke in, pulling Marcel from the car.



A little sip of water and, surprisingly, he was in perfect condition, but his Tesla had a dead battery.

 

[EVMeister]

He got back into his car and wound down all the windows, selected his favorite radio station and started the car.

but his Tesla had a dead battery.

Does not compute. You don't "start" a Tesla. If he was in it listening to the radio, it would be ready to go!

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's all happening guys!! Just gotta stay alive for the next 10 years to see it come true....

Indeed, it's happening, or else!

My projections show that if Tesla is able to reach 3 TWh annual production rate by 2030, then they can also reach 20 TWh/yr by 2038, at which point Tesla produces ALL the batteries that the world needs to transition to sustainable energy.

It's the magic of geometric growth with the machine that builds the machine: those battery factories will be tooled by another, higher layer of Tesla automatio, and Tesla will build a factory that builds battery factories. That means adding one more battery-building factory every year until we win, or the Earth has enough battery capacity.

I suspect this is what Elon means when he says 'Tera-factory'.

So for bty industry players, it's literally time to build out capacity at ludicrous speed or Tesla will eat your breakfast, lunch, dinner, then have you for a bed-time snack.

Battery day was both a roadmap and a cautionary tale for other auto- and bty-makers.

Cheers!

 

[UncaNed]

I keep seeing people talking about Tesla Insurance (not picking on you DurandalAl - just a starting point), as if it's a serious business for Tesla -- either now or in the reasonably near future.

Can anybody point me to anything that suggests that Tesla Insurance is viewed as a serious business for Tesla, either now or in the future?


My understanding is that today it isn only available in California. My belief is that this will never be a serious business for Tesla - that biggest outcome intended would be Tesla acting in the role of a referral and bundler of a large number of new customers to an existing auto insurance company (i.e. - negotiating a special rate for "Tesla" insurance through State Farm, and then referring Tesla buyers to the "Tesla Insurance operated by State Farm" insurance policy).

I DO see this idea as something of a threat or nudge / motivation to the current auto insurance industry - start taking the improved safety and lower overall claims levels from Tesla vehicles into your premiums, or we'll just start up a competitor (or work with one of your competitors that IS doing this) and take your Tesla auto insurance premiums away from you.


In the meantime, the barriers to entry for Tesla as an insurance provider are very high. State by state licensing. Reserves so that Tesla can pay claims when needed. Building up a new division with the insurance business processes and expertise. It's this last point I see as a particularly large barrier - the Tesla insurance legal entity is going to need a fair bit of cash to get started, and will need to retain some reasonably large amount of reserve to be certain of being able to pay claims. Stuff that insurance companies do routinely and do well.

I imagine there are others here with a lot more insurance industry experience than me (who has ~none) and can articulate these barriers to entry better.


In the end, I see Tesla insurance as a money loser or break even for Tesla outside of a situation in which none of the current auto insurance providers see lower claims insuring Teslas and thus Tesla decides to go into competition by charging lower insurance premiums to insure Teslas.


Also worth adding, again MHO, is that it isn't completely clear to me that Teslas actually ARE cheaper to insure. Factors in favor of cheaper are fewer accidents, and reduced medical bills for the people in the Tesla when it does get in an accident.

Factors in favor of more expensive are that Teslas are totaled more frequently (I believe - don't have data to back this) and that seemingly minor damage leads to much larger repair bills (again - my belief, not data). Also that Teslas are more expensive on average than other cars on the road.

I think that the balance of those factors, mostly because of the medical bill side, DOES make Teslas cheaper to insure. Is it enough cheaper though for a standalone insurance business to flourish and generate significant profits though? I am firmly of the opinion that this is no, at least today and the foreseeable future. Get 10M Teslas on the road in the US - maybe then.


(and in the meantime, Tesla referring customers to a particular provider with typically good deals on auto insurance for Teslas - totally)

The insurance angle is GREAT for Tesla owners and drivers! No other manufacturer and programmers will -nor could take to heart and internalize the toll of accident damages and injuries like Tesla. Tesla's superior data collections will improve the whole driving experience and insurance industry in ways no competitor can ever beat to minimize the cost of accidents and repairs - another Tesla-exclusive MOAT poised to add to the value of autopilot and FSD and therefore of TSLA and therefore our retirement accounts!

Unless Tesla were to dumb-down and slow-down the driving experiences for safety... That might be bad for sales, but they're smart enough to make this a win-win situation, perhaps offering the driver a choice of "Safety-mode" vs. "Classic-Drive-Mode" or something, taking the choice and consequences of opting out off Tesla's shoulders or something.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Am I the only one concerned the growing relationship between SpaceX and the US military will negatively impact Tesla in China at some point?

The US military and Elon Musk are planning a 7,500 mph rocket that can deliver weapons anywhere in the world in an hour

Kay, you do understand that the current generation of Elon's civilian rockets already do 17,000 mph and can tgt a landing on any arbitary point of Earth to a CEP accuracy of 10 feet?

But the Space Force wants a downgrade? FUD from Business Insider.

May I also suggest you stay off Twitter for awhile, you'll pick up fewer ear-worms...

Cheers!

 

[Favguy]

Nothing personal, but if everyone waited to buy a Tesla because they were too busy hoarding TSLA shares and counting their gains and calculating that the Model S they bought in 2015 really cost them a million dollars... well, there would be no Tesla.

You state that you have returns In the ballpark of~ 10,000 % (Estimating 20 to 2000. Obviously could be off by a few 1000 percentage points either way ) in TSLA and yet you you still do not own a Tesla. You own an BEV, so you get a thumbs up for me, but what are you waiting for if what you really want is a Tesla?

My total return is about 7000%, reduced by my more recent buys earlier this year. Your criticism is valid. All I can counter with is both myself and my wife are in the process of retiring from jobs that we both now hate. My wife wasn't planning on leaving just yet, but circumstances have overtaken us, and she is now leaving at end of year. The result of this will have a very positive effect on our mental wellbeing and life balance.

Also please understand where I am coming from, I'm from a lower middle class UK background. A household income of £55k is considered very good locally, and that is what we currently live on, that is before tax by the way! If not for my TSLA investment, I would most likely not have been able to afford even a Model 3! I know to a lot of you US guys, our standard of living is probably considered a joke, but to us, my TSLA holding is literally like winning the lottery, by our more modest standards.

So whilst the value of our TSLA investment is very significant by average UK standards of wealth, it now needs to support us entirely as we will have no other income. I've recently taken out a tranche of money to support us for a year or so, and plan to take out more towards the end of the year, to give us security for a little longer. What's left is staying invested for as long as possible. We intend to live frugally for a while whilst this grows to hopefully a far more significant figure. So whilst I probably should be driving a Tesla by now, sorry, but investing significantly in a depreciating asset isn't on the cards yet, even one as nice as a Model S.

If all goes well with the growth of our holdings, we intend to improve the world with philanthropy as well as expanding our lifestyle modestly, and I promise you all I will be buying at least a Model S, and if things go as I expect them to over the next few years, that may even become a Roadster purchase.

By the way, I am not alone, some of the biggest TSLA bulls out there, including significant Youtube influencers, do not currently own a Tesla car, so do forgive me for not feeling guilty about it.

 

[Christine69420]

$430.01 is the TSLA share price right now

$421 is today's Max Pain ref Stock Option Max Pain - and it's a friday

$423.95 is the mid Bollinger Band - above Max Pain

$390.30 is the ever climbing MA(50)

$502.49 is the highest we closed

Macros are green

Lot's of positive press for Tesla and TSLA recently. $578 anyone?


My conclusion: HODL - since I'm out of cash to buy more with...

 

[Bet TSLA]

Tesla fully expects FSD to be much much safer than human drivers. Would the conventional insurance companies recognize that and pass that along to the customers? Tesla insurance can ensure that this happens.

Lastly, ask yourself this: The 3-6 months after Covid hit, how much less did you drive? Do you think the ~15% credit your insurance gave you (or whatever they gave you) was commensurate with the reduction of the liability and payouts that they experienced? Hmmm

If FSD isn't much safer than human drivers then it doesn't exist. So yes, of course. But the cars too are safer than other cars. Only Tesla knows how much right now. So more information provides superior ability to set rates.

Sorry, no win on the COVID thing. Sure Tesla Insurance gave me 15% back (as CA law mandated, I believe). But they didn't adjust my rates downward to reflect what I was actually driving. I had to call and ask. Saved me about 30%, but it didn't get backdated all the way back to March. Maybe 2.0 will be better.

 

[Tslynk67]

Love Pierre: https://twitter.com/p_ferragu/status/1314564215798214656

 

[tinyrodent]

Shanghai factory update - lots of activity. New access road construction well underway. Model 3 production appears to be back up to speed, many vehicles visible. New excavations for additional structure(s) behind the stamping extension of the Model 3 building.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Start at 5:48... enjoy

Holy crap. That’s a bad review. Are there other bad reviews like that floating around?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Am I the only one concerned the growing relationship between SpaceX and the US military will negatively impact Tesla in China at some point?

The US military and Elon Musk are planning a 7,500 mph rocket that can deliver weapons anywhere in the world in an hour

I’ve always been worried about Tesla’s dependence/entanglement on China. I don’t think he had much of a choice though. Obviously Elon knows this is a potential problem, so he’s managing the situation. Frankly, the fact that Tesla was the first auto manufacturer to 100% own their own factory (no joint venture) was huge in itself. Not enough people gave Elon credit for that coup.