Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

The day trader in me has a bad feeling about playing this ER short-term exactly because I think MMs are setting TSLA up for a miss with their high "consensus" numbers. And with C19 uncertainty, lack of stimulus money coming in and the election near, I'm staying out this round.

Of course things can turn on a dime, and I'm always on the lookout for a major catalyst like a FSD breakthrough or a stimulus bill or something, but unless I see strong SP upward momentum and truly significant volume and a beat, I'm not day trading on margin at this time (all my money is already in TSLA, so I can only margin trade). MMs could drive down TSLA pretty easily in this environment given the opportunity.

Long term I'm not worried too much about TSLA, but short-term I feel things could go too south too quickly.

Hopefully I'm wrong, but better safe than sorry....

I agree. I hardly ever try to make short term predictions but, to me, it looks like the last few days of engineered downside is setting the SP up for a big move down (fabricated, of course). Unless the ER numbers are out of sight, they will sell it down. potentially in a big way. There are no significant announcements anticipated for a while that would impede a drop to the mid-$300's. Hope not, though.

 

[SOULPEDL]

There's too many potential issues for me to bet on ER this time around as well. However, I've taken medium term positions with call spread 400/500c exp Feb 2021 and increased my shares about 10% at SP 421 yesterday.

The recent investments are mostly in case FSD works reasonably well. If not, I shouldn't have much to lose because FSD isn't really priced into TSLA anyway.

FSD will be priced into Q4. IMO, this announcement today is an attempt at seeking support for what he's about to say today re Q4 revenue (with included the FSD revenue). I'll have to say, it seems like a stretch, so numbers might not be so great today?
Oh well, no big bets here, just HODLing.

 

[Christine69420]

PALO ALTO, Calif., October 8, 2020 – Tesla will post its financial results for the third quarter of 2020 after market close on Wednesday, October 21, 2020. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q3 2020 update, which will be available on Tesla’s Investor Relations website. Tesla management will hold a live question and answer webcast that day at

2:30 p.m. Pacific Time
5:30 p.m. Eastern Time
23:30 Central European Summer Time (CEST)

Tesla Announces Date for Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results and Webcast | Tesla Investor Relations

Q3 2020 Update: Tesla Investor Relations
Webcast: Tesla Investor Relations (live and replay)


Personally I've prepared some snacks and something nice to drink.

 

[ConnectingDots]

Insane Gross Margin on MY and MIC M3
I made an analysis based on Sandy Munro cost data vs car prices.
Seems hard to believe but Gross Margin on MY and MIC M3 is almost 50%, for a barebones SR+ (MIC M3 including government subsidy)

Add options (especially FSD) and we're way over 50%!

Seems hard to grasp, especially since we're not yet with Gigacastings, battery day tech - but the costs all based on sandy and the process seems right.

Let me know what you think

 

[SOULPEDL]

Here's an old theory of mine. What if the pushdown this week was to prepare for a massive inevitable pop? Shorts trading the opposite to get their money back. Wishful anyway, who knows. Remember Lefty the analyst who flipped to favorable side of Tesla? How's his portfolio now?
On the other hand, what if this is all part of an S&P inclusion pre-dump? I can't read the tea leaves at all, but I'm sure someone actually knows what's going to happen soon. There must be huge reason we see FSD and the EV Hummer now. Battle stations!

 

[SOULPEDL]

The collective here seems to think TSLA is going to bust - warning signs everywhere.
Is it time to buy more?

 

[Singuy]

There's only one number that will skyrocket the stock and that's gross margins without EV credit. Everything else is priced in or doesn't matter as long as there's a gaap profit of $0.01.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The collective here seems to think TSLA is going to bust - warning signs everywhere.
Is it time to buy more?

OK, I thought about this for hours now... this feels like Vegas which I don't do (they still owe me money from college, my student loans!).
Sit tight, no change today

 

[YAWD]

Here's an old theory of mine. What if the pushdown this week was to prepare for a massive inevitable pop? Shorts trading the opposite to get their money back. Wishful anyway, who knows. Remember Lefty the analyst who flipped to favorable side of Tesla? How's his portfolio now?
On the other hand, what if this is all part of an S&P inclusion pre-dump? I can't read the tea leaves at all, but I'm sure someone actually knows what's going to happen soon. There must be huge reason we see FSD and the EV Hummer now. Battle stations!

If we go by TA, TSLA is expected to go higher. I don't believe MM understand Tesla's fundamental better than some of us here. I think MM simply follow or create technical charts. Technical charts are saying or predicting that TSLA is bound to move higher and so they are simply creating fear and collecting shares to sell them eventually when buy volume arrives. In the process, they are also collecting put premiums.

 

[Nocturnal]

Here's an old theory of mine. What if the pushdown this week was to prepare for a massive inevitable pop? Shorts trading the opposite to get their money back. Wishful anyway, who knows. Remember Lefty the analyst who flipped to favorable side of Tesla? How's his portfolio now?
On the other hand, what if this is all part of an S&P inclusion pre-dump? I can't read the tea leaves at all, but I'm sure someone actually knows what's going to happen soon. There must be huge reason we see FSD and the EV Hummer now. Battle stations!

Even a slight miss might be good enough to convince the committee. I have a couple 11/20 calls that I would be tempted to bail on except for that possibility.

 

[mrmage]

FSD will be priced into Q4. IMO, this announcement today is an attempt at seeking support for what he's about to say today re Q4 revenue (with included the FSD revenue). I'll have to say, it seems like a stretch, so numbers might not be so great today?
Oh well, no big bets here, just HODLing.

Might be. Since I posted that, I exited the spread for a whopping .17c profit (before commissions) and am trying to acquire a more conservative one instead like 370/420c.

 

[AudubonB]

@26:00

Little shout out to all the people who has done so much diligent research through the years.
Thank you, and cheers.

That was the warmest and most validating set of comments, all the more so considering its unimpeachably reputable speaker.

Thank you, @JBRR , for providing the link,
Thank you, Mr Palihapitiya, for your accolades,
Thank you, TMC Investment community, for these now many years of good work.

 

[BornToFly]

Even a slight miss might be good enough to convince the committee. I have a couple 11/20 calls that I would be tempted to bail on except for that possibility.

I don't think the committee is going to add TSLA anytime soon. Learning that Microsoft was eligible for around 10 years before they were added has dashed my hopes. I think the committee is too scared that the SP will drop 50% after being added and bring their index down. I think the big catalyst in the next 12 months is going to be FSD. SP will double and keep climbing as soon as everyone believes Elon has delivered on his promise.

 

[Tslynk67]

These big macro swings today, what's that all about. Is it stimulus is coming/stimulus is dead/stimulus is back on/no go on stimulus?

Is it that??

 

[Cherry Wine]

Buy the rumour, sell the news.

To all ER-gamblers turning up on TMC the last couple of days asking what the SP will do tomorrow: don't say I didn't warn ya!

Normally I would agree with you, but I think that pattern has gotten so predictable that we're due for a change-up. Plus, we haven't really had much "buy the rumor" action to speak of this time around.

I think it's pretty clear that Tesla will continue to guide for 500k deliveries for FY20 (based on pulling of demand levers -- e.g., Model S price drops, range increases and M3 "mini-refresh") and maintain guidance for FY21 (if mentioned; by the way, I think they are sandbagging FY21 guidance at 750k), and there's no reason to doubt that the financials will be anything but good -- or even great. The big question mark for me is margins, but I have confidence in the company's ability to execute so I'm expecting those to at least be solid, and I think there's the potential for an upside surprise there.

In short: I could be wrong, but I've got a good feeling about this one.

With that said, I am not opening short-term bullish positions and am certainly not advocating that anyone else do so either.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

These big macro swings today, what's that all about. Is it stimulus is coming/stimulus is dead/stimulus is back on/no go on stimulus?

Is it that??

Probably. And oil is going bonkers on the supply glut in the US. Had been super bullish and there's likely an end of year reckoning coming. Causes a lot of reshuffling I'm sure.

 

[kengchang]

1st ship to EU from Fremont

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wait a minute... deja vu. I have written about today's scenario with FSD in the past, coming out right on earning day.

There is no video yet for the pure reason of building up anticipation. My theories in the past have included a TN (Tesla Network) switch to where all the cars become eligible to be use on Tesla's rideshare network. Not robotaxi's yet, but a TN that makes a strong case about near future potential for a nice TN revenue stream in 2021. It could be a 1-2 punch and send this to the moon (and back of course). Sticking with my $495, but not until next week when this sinks in and after MM get their price on Fri.

If anything, I love this excitement, and I bet many of you do too. Makes poker look like a toy, although many rules still apply. Biggest difference is that I'm winning now. (But check back tomorrow pls).

 

[SOULPEDL]

Has Rob or anyone done an estimate of FSD revenue potential from all prior sales only? % cars that have it, or something? How big $$$ is that prize anyway?

 

[ZachF]

Just a few hours guys