Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

What does this jargon mean?

Here's an excel with the trades from yesterday. Looking at the trades will explain the jargon. Download today's trades in Excel format

 

[jerry33]

Science fiction allows us to explore ideas and comment on them.

Most modern businesses do concentrate on the short term, I've never understood it. It's as if they have never looked at history with its uncertainties, steady-state until revolution, oligarchs and weakening from infighting & politics and the complete upset from an outsider not hidebound by accepted wisdom, rethinking everything, especially if coupled with the confidence to enable a meritocracy,

Think of Ghengis Musk and Elon Bonaparte. You might prefer Elonbard Kingdom Brunel or Benjamin Musklin.

It's pretty simple. As long as the CEO and upper management are paid based on quarterly (or annual) results and have a golden parachute if the firm fails, they won't look further than the end of their nose because the survival of the business doesn't affect them personally.

 

[jhm]

Here's an excel with the trades from yesterday. Looking at the trades will explain the jargon. Download today's trades in Excel format

Thanks, but what does your jargon mean? The link does not explain.

 

[re04586]

Thanks, but what does your jargon mean? The link does not explain.

Opening stocks: companies that will benefit as economy reopens from COVID
Closed stocks: companies that benefit from work at home

 

[AimStellar]

If you don't know who Cathie Wood is, do yourself a favor and look her up!

 

[TNEVol]

If you don't know who @jhm is you don't know much about TMC investment threads

 

[amolina]

Picked up 10 Brand new TSLA at 399. Wooooo. It is such an exciting activity to go TSLA shopping

 

[SOULPEDL]

Oh well, twist my arm. I'll buy more shares.

Just picked up 50 shares - got this figured out (I think). I'm firing on peaks in both directions.
Dare to go lower, I'll buy more and harder!

 

[CyberDutchie]

You might think that today, they'll be coming to their senses but, alas, the market can stay irrational longer than I can keep a straight face.

Ughh, this is shaping up to be another tough day for the stock. Not to be political but just wondering if the tech sell-off is a reaction to a Biden administration viewed less favorable to tech? I’ve heard ARK Invest Cathy Wood state that a Biden administration is not great for an innovation agenda. Thoughts?

 

[amolina]

Just picked up 50 shares - got this figured out (I think). I'm firing on peaks in both directions.
Dare to go lower, I'll buy more and harder!

View attachment 607134

Whats your plan with selling 2022 Calls ? Whats your thought process?

 

[Tathagata]

From the close four months ago ($278.86) to today ($421.26) TSLA is up 51%. So a simple buy and hold puts you up $510K on a $1M brokerage account. No margin required. Unless there's something really non-obvious here, I have no idea why you would think taking on the extra risk of options and margin for about the same return makes any sense at all. You really ought to use some other time period to demonstrate the brilliance of this method.

Yes, buying and holding shares was very profitable during that same time period as well. I should note that i held TSLA shares and didn't have any excess capital to deploy, but i wanted to use options to play Q2 earnings. My first TSLA option trade was on July 13th ($299.31 Share Price)- a long call (1900 strike, 7/24 expiry) purchased in hopes of positive Q2 earnings and S&P inclusion, which expired worthless. After that i started selling put options, and using the proceeds to buy more shares. During this time period i purchased 900 additional (post-split) shares.

I held about 5000 shares across various accounts during this time period. The sale of options netted me $500k in addition to any share price appreciation. In hindsight i started selling premium during a time of elevated implied volatility following Q2 earnings, and the share price rose from $299 to $500+, so selling puts (and eventually covered calls) was a relatively safe and very profitable strategy.


Not advice, and i realize this is the wrong thread to discuss derivatives. This thread has been immensely valuable for anyone interested in learning more:
Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA

 

[AimStellar]

Fresh off devastation [not sarcasm] from missing Tesla Tequila, just rec'd tracking for the Tesla Short Shorts I purchased awhile back...

Bought two pairs. Plan to keep and frame one pair in one of those NFL/uniform type glass displays (not kidding). Planned to send the other pair to either Einhorn, G. Johnson, you name it.

But plans change. (Plus I really wanted a bottle of Tesla Tequila. (And if anyone is selling one, please PM. Happy to pay a mark up to a user here than some random on eBay)

SO, that said: If anyone missed out on the short shorts and wants the second pair, send me a PM. First person gets them free ($69 value )

I'll cover shipping as well (domestic / int'l / living on the ISS - doesn't matter).

---

This site, forum, and userbase have given more to me in knowledge/laughs/etc than I will ever know or be able to repay.

So, this is the very least I can do. Aside from being a Supporter (and I'm going to remedy this in a moment, following this post).

Thanks so much, seriously, to each and every one of you.

 

[Sudre]

Color me surprised (/s) because max pain opened this morning at $425 for the end of yesterday. What I am really curious about is how this dip this morning will mess with how nicely things were shaping up. I imagine many Calls were bought under $410 and now the price may very well bounce right back up. I guess THEY are also trying to sell as many PUTs as possible while trying to misprice the Calls enough so they don't sell. We shall see tomorrow.

Looking at the OI, the wall of PUTs at a strike of $400 signaled that as the support range for today. Lets see if that hold. If it doesn't the entire structure of today's 425 max pain will change. I imagine we are already pushed lower on max pain.

Looking at todays OI chart $425 is sold even. If the price comes back up slowly it should mean more PUTs can be sold at lower strikes while the Calls can get bought back as needed. That gives THEM more premiums and fees to profit off of and a more flexible max pain. I don't see any big TSLA movers this week but you never know what Elon is going to tweet. With no big news and Macros being what they will be as our fearless leader refuses to admit defeat I see things where they are for a bit if not a bit lower. I am really hoping to be wrong.

I've got PUT spreads in this range so if we stay hear I get more shares. I like more shares at these prices.

 

[bkp_duke]

Ughh, this is shaping up to be another tough day for the stock. Not to be political but just wondering if the tech sell-off is a reaction to a Biden administration viewed less favorable to tech? I’ve heard ARK Invest Cathy Wood state that a Biden administration is not great for an innovation agenda. Thoughts?

Nope . . . not taking the bait.

EDIT - I'll just drop CNBCs analysis here, for what it is worth (not much?):
What a Biden White House could mean for Tesla

 

[wipster]

OK, what the hell happened now?

 

[Green Pete]

OK, what the hell happened now?

I find tsla trading volume is directly correlated with the number of posts per day on this forum. And the price seems to increase with high trading volume. So I blame all of you for not posting enough.

 

[bkp_duke]

A nice simple explanation here of (possibly) why a lot of analysists have not yet factored in Tesla's Energy business into forecasts:
Tesla's Energy Business in 4 Charts | The Motley Fool

TL;DR version - they view it as "not yet around the corner" enough to include in projections, and the Auto % of total revenue has been growing consistently over the past 7 quarters.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Elon Musk: Tesla's RNA vaccine printer for CureVac is going to be 'important product for the world' - Electrek

Version 3 of Tesla’s vaccine printer is under development according to Elon


“he believes the product will be important for the world, but he doesn’t believe it will make a difference for Tesla financially:

I do expect this to become an important product for the world, but probably not financially material for Tesla.“

 

[SOULPEDL]

Some seemingly off the wall ideas become possible in a future of low cost electricity, low maintenance vehicles, constant grade (angle) and controlled environment tunnels. Not many can predict even a near term future with the potential we now have. The demand for autonomous / semi-autonomous Semi/HGV convoys/trains/Boring Company tunnels isn't something I've considered before.

How/where does food etc come from for Las Vegas - Los Angeles port via Semi/HGV? Ditto Austin/Houston port?

Another level of disruption ahead. Truly Elon the Disruptor.

I go off-wall a lot. We should all go there. A child likely has a better shot at predicting the future at this point, IMO.

What am I doing writing here again? You people are like a drug. Seriously, I've got a new board to hand solder. How is THIS more interesting?

See ya round next SP-ike!

Whats your plan with selling 2022 Calls ? Whats your thought process?

Risk aversion until we start to get along a bit better in America, but there's more to it. I've seen this same Call Option go up/down for too long $0-$10K, like 5 times. That's a pattern, so I sold it. But didn't buy it back, instead I grabbed more shares. Puzzling huh.

Many others would prefer to own leaps for most growth (vs shares). I'm not wanting to wait around. My ability to invent is affected by my wealth. So I've got a minimum no matter what happens to the markets so I can continue the business. Call me chicken or a turtle.

Currently at 57% TSLA/Cash ratio in IRA. I moved my target from TSLA 50% to 60% hoping for some good deals, and bc I never actually got to 50% since IDK when in the past 4 yrs. It's so hard not to buy this stock. Heck, maybe I need the cash for Neuralink IPO... or maybe Neuralink itself! My memory sucks, going bionic soon I think.

 

[Jack6591]

Ughh, this is shaping up to be another tough day for the stock. Not to be political but just wondering if the tech sell-off is a reaction to a Biden administration viewed less favorable to tech? I’ve heard ARK Invest Cathy Wood state that a Biden administration is not great for an innovation agenda. Thoughts?

I’ve been warned by the mods, not to post anything political — that names had been taken.

Maybe it would be okay, if I posted something pro-Trump...