Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MABMAB]

All I want for Xmas is my Elon Musk to make some great announcements leading up to inclusion date.

 

[Curt Renz]

From my brokerage's newsfeed - early this morning:

CFRA REITERATES STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF TESLA, INC.

 

[Nocturnal]

I guess just like the election, the S&P inclusion did not end the discussion about S&P inclusion. LOL.

9% feels good but my NIO is up 7% on news that today is Tuesday.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Construction is ongoing on 3 GFs right now. Last month the company announced $12 billion in cap expenditures over the next 2 years. What more do you want?

Also remember the DBE process must be perfected at scale. So much hinges on this. I think we all believe it's a matter of when, not if.

Even after all the bugs are worked out and 20 GWh battery lines come online, the company will be able to self-finance multiple new GFs because profits will begin exploding Q4 onward. Q4 profit is going to rock the marketplace.

I'm not suggesting capital raises won't happen again. It just depends. For example, Tesla won't ever need another cap raise if/when FSD develops into a legit L4/L5 product.

You're talking about a company forced by Wall St and others to operate lean and profitably. I'm saying we're in a new zone now, scratch all that worry and build. If you need to boost raw materials, talk to some govts and get them moving. Or build an entirely new stationary storage GF on a formulation requiring zero scarce materials. We had a trial one in PA 4 years ago that failed only because there was no Elon to scale effectively.

The mission is to speed the transition. We're certainly not doing that if we're growing at 100% AND profitable. Elon's built an amazing company with a massive market cap, I'd happily see that market cap stagnate to move the transition forward even 6 months. Don't really care about climate change, just want to get there sooner. Ironically, there's no need to do this sustainably!

 

[Tslynk67]

K. I feel like he hasn’t updated his numbers on twitter(I sadly don’t have patreon) since Giga Shanghai updated the production rates(the 22K figure?) and his numbers also reflected a closed Shanghai.

thx
BT

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1328774674709442560

 

[ggr]

Let's wait to see what the FINRA Short Volume Report tells us after the Close. I suspect "Tons of un-informed naked shorts out there, aka MMs and hedgies (Note: many large Hedge Funds are also Market Makers. There are approx. 28 different TSLA Market Makers trading on NASDAQ).

Keep in mind, the FINRA typically reports on about half the daily TSLA volume on NASDAQ, so even these stats fail to capture a large portion of what's happening behind the curtain wrt TSLA shorting. However, it the only source of daily data we have. NASDAQ reports short interest just twice per month, and usually delayed 1+ wks.

So today, let's watch the proportion of FINRA "Short Exempt" volume again. It was at an unprecedented 7.61% yesterday, and that was on a day w/o public 'news'. Hmm...

FYI, the previous highest % "Short Exempt" vol day was 5.26% on May 12, 2020

No other day w/o the "Uptick Rule" in effect has seen "Short Exempt" vol % higher than 2.63% and even that level is already back to the 52nd Percentile ranking on this metric (very close to average).

TL;dr Something is going on with MMs and their Exemption to the prohibition against naked short selling.

"Benford's Law - How mathematics can detect fraud!" | Youtube

Cheers!

So, you are supposing that the MMs did a lot of naked shorting to suppress the price just before S&P inclusion? Because they knew it was coming? That's insane on their part.

 

[EVortex]

Too funny. Maybe this is holding the SP back.

Volkswagen's CEO says its latest round of investment in electric self-driving cars will let it finally 'beat Tesla'

 

[Paul_SF]

That and incremental engineering improvements. Next GF should leverage lessons learned from these, so cascading makes more sense

Did I misunderstood Elon when he said their future factories being built now are “as much as 10 other factories”?

it seems to me some people just want factories everywhere just for the sake of being able to say :” look, x more factories getting built, the share price makes sense “

The best at manufacturing doesn’t mean making more of the same factories like everyone else, just a little better. It means really improving and transforming manufacturing.

We all know Elon only deals with 10 to 100x improvements, order of magnitude improvements.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I have a CC at $445 that expires on Friday that is making me sweat a tad right now.

I had CC at $455 that I closed at a loss this morning. I've been burned enough times by covered calls, that I should've known better, which is why I closed at a loss instead of trying to close them at a profit.

 

[StealthP3D]

Everyone's got their own style.

I don't buy the stuff Invest in so I can keep an objective mind.

There is little point in being perfectly objective if you have no data with which to be objective with!

I have always bought the products of all my largest positions (although I never write the expenses off my taxes). SBUX, MSFT, QCOM, TSLA, etc. It has improved my returns in a big way by giving me the confidence to go big.

I'm always looking for new companies to invest in and the "research" is sometimes distasteful but absolutely necessary - Victoria's Secret, Fling.com, AshleyMadison.com, Cronos Group, Bruichladdich, etc. The list of required homework is endless even if I end up deciding not to invest. My wife really appreciates all my diligence.

 

[LTC_RRR]

It's the best they could do while still retaining some semblance of credibility. They knew how foolish they'd look after Elon guides for 1M next year as SP hit $550+ without inclusion. What on Earth would they have done then?


I've been advocating for massive cash raising from the start of this run-up. If we can finance 4 more Gigafactories right now, why aren't we? It would cause a momentary glut in stationary storage, but IMO dragging pack production forward 1.5yrs is more important than caring if a bunch of lunatics can buy an island!

I suspect that the delay in adding future gigas is more due to a lack of managerial bandwidth than lack of capital.

 

[Quesder]

Still surprisingly little volume on this news. There really is trader fatigue on TSLA or something. All the action has moved to NIO, XPEV, LI, etc.

Really disappointed on the TSLA performance for the past 2.5 month and today. My NIO total value is on track of surpassing TSLAs.

 

[Quesder]

I had CC at $455 that I closed at a loss this morning. I've been burned enough times by covered calls, that I should've known better, which is why I closed at a loss instead of trying to close them at a profit.

My experience is that you sell covered call at a “possible” strike price only when you can accept seeking your share at that price.
Otherwise just sell CC at an impossible price, say, for TESLA now, $630 short term

 

[Singuy]

Really disappointed on the TSLA performance for the past 2.5 month and today. My NIO total value is on track of surpassing TSLAs.

Any stock can have a run up that multiplies your money. The question is will it sustain. Tsla many felt would not sustain but it did thanks to battery day and solid ER report. Will NIO's earnings continue to justify its run up? Some people believe it will, others not so much. Time will tell..but if you were to drag this out 10 years, I have way more confidence in Tsla than Nio.

I tell this to everyone who asks me about Nio vs Tesla.

Nio will most likely double in the short term, but high chance of going to zero in the long term.
Tesla may go down in the short term, but high chance of 5x in the long term.

Investors shouldn't care about the performance of any stock in a span of 2.5 months. But if you are trader..yeah..you screwed up putting money into Tesla.

 

[ClownMouth]

Really disappointed on the TSLA performance for the past 2.5 month and today. My NIO total value is on track of surpassing TSLAs.

Imagine feeling bad about your $TSLA investment today.

 

[traxila]

Really disappointed on the TSLA performance for the past 2.5 month and today. My NIO total value is on track of surpassing TSLAs.

Sell TSLA and put it all in NIO.

Problem solved.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

My experience is that you sell covered call at a “possible” strike price only when you can accept seeking your share at that price.
Otherwise just sell CC at an impossible price, say, for TESLA now, $630 short term

It WAS "impossible" on Monday. The S&P 500 announcement changed all that (I was expecting them to announce AFTER Q4). Plus any more "impossible", and there wouldn't be enough theta for the covered calls to be worth selling. Besides, I expected the SP to be much higher than 455 by option expiration, so I would be left with an opportunity loss if I didn't cover. Such is the risk of selling covered calls, and if you're going to play that game, then be prepared to pay the piper.

 

[ZeApelido]

Really disappointed on the TSLA performance for the past 2.5 month and today. My NIO total value is on track of surpassing TSLAs.

Your mother talks the same way about her children.

 

[mrmage]

The counter argument to that, is that under most circumstances, with patience, you could buy back in at the same price you sold (or lower) within 1-2 weeks.

Not advice.

That works most the time, maybe 80%. But when it doesn't, it's hard to live with.

Not that I would know the feeling of selling pre-split 400c LEAPs for a 100% gain in a month, then watching what should have been a 10x gain if I just held. Nope, I don't know that feeling at all.

 

[StealthP3D]

My experience is that you sell covered call at a “possible” strike price only when you can accept seeking your share at that price.
Otherwise just sell CC at an impossible price, say, for TESLA now, $630 short term

That's the silliest statement ever! If the market thought the price was "impossible", the premium available to you would be zero!