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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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38 days of trading between now and Dec 24th (last day on which Index Funds can have they shares in place):
  • Given ASP @ 440 for arguement's sake (that's near the SP that Tesla set in September's "At-the-Market" share offering)
  • Given the S&P's $51B stock transfer requirement, that means about 116M shares need to be bought
  • over 38 days, that's about 3 million shares per day being locked up
  • given 60M shares/day Volume, that's about 5% of daily trading
This is going to be v.tough to hold down. MMs r in trouble. Only saving grace is the fact that Index Funds don't need to purchase a fixed number of shares, only a fixed value of shares.

This is important. It means that if the shares they purchase today go up in value due to a 'squeeze', their total value of holdings of TSLA goes up with it, and REDUCES their future need to buy shares.

Some forward thinking Index Funds could even become Sellers if they buy what they need early at a realitively low ASP, and then a squeeze sees their value exceed the Fund's requirements.

All of this points to an early peak, IF and that's a big unknown, Index Funds can purchase outside the normal +/- 3 day window from the S&P effective date. The Fund itself sets these rules (imp. NOT the S&P Committee), and I suspect they'll make an exception to buy TSLA in the same way the S&P Committee itself has take the extraordinary of pre-announcing the listing of TSLA 5 weeks ahead of time.

Cheers!
Forgive my ignorance, but the 1.01% of the fund weight that S&P set out yesterday was based on Teslas marketcap at that time. If Tesla's marketcap goes up wouldn't that % increase up until the buy date meaning that $51B goes up as well?
 
Pretty sure those GFs would sit mostly idle because the rest of the raw mineral supply chain has not caught up (Lithium and Nickel in particular). Building those would be a big capex to support while waiting on them for 1+ years to start producing product to essentially pay for themselves.
the other huge obstacle would be training a workforce that large all at once.
 
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Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, and others join forces to create ZETA: a push for electric cars only by 2030 - Electrek

Tesla joins an EV lobbying group. Strength in numbers ?


The 28 founding members of ZETA are:

  • ABB
  • Albemarle Corporation
  • Arrival
  • ChargePoint
  • ConEdison
  • Copper Development Association, Inc.
  • Duke Energy
  • Edison International
  • Enel X
  • EVBox
  • EVgo
  • Ioneer
  • Li-Cycle
  • Lordstown Motors
  • Lucid Motors
  • Piedmont Lithium
  • PG&E Corporation
  • Proterra
  • Redwood Materials
  • Rivian
  • Siemens
  • Southern Company
  • SRP
  • Tesla
  • Vistra
  • Volta
  • Uber
  • WAVE
 
All of this points to an early peak, IF and that's a big unknown, Index Funds can purchase outside the normal +/- 3 day window from the S&P effective date. The Fund itself sets these rules (imp. NOT the S&P Committee), and I suspect they'll make an exception to buy TSLA in the same way the S&P Committee itself has take the extraordinary of pre-announcing the listing of TSLA 5 weeks ahead of time.

The S&P Index Funds need to follow their own rules as disclosed in their prospectus. Deviating from that opens them up to lawsuits should they guess wrong about the direction of TSLA and thus under-perform the Index. In other words, it's not tenable for them to deviate from their prospectus.

That said, most index funds give themselves wide latitude in their prospectus to deviate from the index when they feel it would be beneficial to the performance of the fund. Index funds exhibit what's called "index tracking error" which is the deviation from the return of the actual index. For a variety of reasons, this is almost always negative. The fund manager's job is to minimize this tracking error without becoming too speculative. I know that Schwab's S&P 500 Index Fund allows them to buy in advance or buy late. They can even buy in anticipation of the announcement if they want.

For those reasons I would expect the index fund managers to lobby for the staged inclusion offered by S&P because it makes their job of tracking the actual Index easier (less risky) with no real downside.

I would caution those who plan to trade these events because there is no predictable way we can expect this play out except to say that it should provide a stronger "floor" to the share price than would otherwise exist. That does NOT mean it can't (for example) take a trip below $400. And it doesn't mean there won't be a squeeze. It's really impossible to predict.

The probable reason the Index Committee decided to offer a staged entry is because they had heard complaints from some fund managers that adding TSLA would be messy and make their job more difficult. This is their way of being responsive to the needs of these fund managers. Doing this over a much longer window than is typical gives fund managers a larger window with which to cost average and thus more flexibility. I suspect there may even be a timely dip in the share price to assist them.

I'm not planning to play this event other than continuing to hold although some will undoubtedly have big profits by guessing correctly and others will undoubtedly lose a lot of value. We will hear from the former group out of proportion to their numbers because the latter group tends to quietly lick their wounds. :oops:
 
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Looks like Nio is dragging Tsla down after hours..lol /s

Hahaha your love affair with NIO continues. It is crazy how Tesla gets lumped together with any EV stock. Look on the bright side though. First it was Nikola which was cringe worthy and now NIO which does not have it’s own factory but has products lol. We are making progress!
 
Was thinking a bit about Shanghai. It seems MIC Model 3 is close to fully ramped. Model Y MIC production should start soon and be fully ramped in a year. In one year the factory in Shanghai will be pretty much up and running at full capacity. It has been a great success already contributing to profits.Tesla is flush with cash, Austin and Berlin will be ramping for many years. But what is next for China? If building a new factory takes ~1year and then another year to ramp, now would be a good time to start building the next factory.

Shanghai seems like a great success, so why not build another factory in Shanghai. Or in Guangdong. But for what? Model 2? Semi? Energy/Solar? What do you guys think is next for China and when will it be announce?
Been saying this for a while now. Elone said eventually Giga Shanghai will be at 1M/yr production. Even if we get 300K Models 3 and 600K Models Y that's still a little less than a million. Rounding, or further production refinements? It'd take only 333K/line/yr for the 3 existing lines to get to 1M/yr.

But, if we look at the drone footage for the past several weeks, there does appear to be land clearing going on in the former watermelon field on the Eastern perimeter of GF3. There's roadwork to be sure, along with a new high capacity bridge over the canal, but could it be also another assembly hall? It makes sense to localize all production at the GF3 site since they can draw upon the existing bty, motor, and infrastructure resources.

Imma call it: Model 2 it is! :D

Cheers!