Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Anyone have any theories as to why they're trying so hard to keep us red today?

Yes. Greed.

 

[agastya]

It will probably be OXY.

Given TSLA's size, S&P also have to reconstitute the S&P50 and S&P100.
Not sure if reconstitution of those indexes are also done on a quarterly basis, but if yes - it could be a company from the top 100, not the likes of OXY.

 

[StealthP3D]

This is really interesting. Tesla average battery size will reduce over time whilst others will increase massively. Tesla can then sell more cars for a given kWh increase whilst others can sell fewer. Tesla share of EV market will trend up rather down. Could they get to 35%?...

ARK Invest historically modelled TSLA EV market share as declining slowly as EV sales from other makers ramped up. Then they switched to TSLA maintaining flat market share. Now I think they project small increase in EV market share. I agree, they are being too conservative, at least in the next 5-7 years of ramping EV sales and it could very well be over 30%.

But what really matters is what TSLA's market share is of all automobile sales, regardless of whether they are gas or electric. And this number will grow even faster than their market share of EV's.

 

[Mike Smith]

I still don't think there's going to be a big spike - and S&P seems to agree.

Do you think the big institutions are HODLers? They're going to start selling as soon as they think they're going to be able to buy their shares back at a lower price after the inclusion date. The higher the price goes, the faster they'll be selling.

There's also around 200M shares available to short right now..

It's very hard for a squeeze to happen when everyone knows it's going to happen and everyone knows the end date.

I think if the SP gets to around $650-675 Tesla will do a capital raise and that will be about the end of it.

I'm still fully invested in TSLA of course, and in fact a more orderly rise is a lot better for the SP than a temporary blow off top anyway.

 

[AudubonB]

Great day all..My son came to visit for Thanksgiving...next car is going to be a Y for my Daughter!View attachment 613318

Uh...did your son Hit & Run a yarn shop?

 

[Mo City]

My observation over the last several months is that he wants VW to fire him and is becoming disillusioned that it's taking them so long. He will likely end up working for Tesla in Berlin. He's a perfect fit.

I came to the same conclusion recently. DIess knew the end was coming and decided to go out loudly.

I don't agree he will join Tesla. Good guy but they don't need him.

 

[OrthoSurg]

When it gets close to $1650.16502 someone is going to have to walk me through putting a sell order in at a certain price... That SP will give me 1,000,000.00212 in my tax free account. I'll be teslanaire, and won't want to tempt fate.

you’ll get used to it.
Reached the 7 numbers 1 month ago with my TSLA holding.
Now, just waiting patiently for the 8 numbers.
Might happen before the end of the decade.

 

[pz1975]

This is, of course, pretty much pointless. Unless you're just doing it for entertainment or bragging rights. But seriously, there's nothing impressive about getting 40x return on a $100 investment. It's if you have the balls to bet half your portfolio that you get well-deserved admiration. Of course, you probably go broke too.

Where did I say it was $100? I said 1% - that is a vastly different amount for different people. Note that I have been buying and accumulating TSLA since 2013.

Also, I don’t care about “admiration”. I find when people accuse someone else of a negative trait, they should usually be looking in the mirror. I’ve had some posters thank me privately for posting my strategies and ask me to continue posting them. So that’s what I’m doing.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think people are delusional if they think Tsla will not drop after this entire fiasco considering just the thought that the squeeze may not be as large as expected has already caused a drop.

Like I said, zero allegiance to Tesla. They are just here for the gambling money.

All stocks drop after huge run-ups - that's not even a question. And most of us expect it will run-up from here.

The question is, how far will it run up and how far will it drop. If a tree falls in the woods but no one is around to hear it, did it make a sound? In other words, if it runs up to $900 and falls back to $650, did it really drop? I'm not saying this is how it will happen (honestly, no one knows) but to constantly worry about or predict "drops" is just ridiculous.

And what is it about being included in the S&P 500 Index that justifies using the descriptor "fiasco"?

 

[Green Pete]

I came to the same conclusion recently. DIess knew the end was coming and decided to go out loudly.

I don't agree he will join Tesla. Good guy but they don't need him.

I do hope them finding a successor to Elon is in the plans. He seems like not the worst choice. Elon has made Tesla what it is an will forever be part of Teslas DNA. But it would be nice to not need him to be CEO so that he could be less tied down by the beaurcracy. That guy has way to many genius level ideas in his head to be tied up with management stuff forever. Having him plan an orderly transition also seems like a better alternative to a sudden scary one

 

[Bet TSLA]

Justice is sweet!
Vandal caught on Sentry Mode knifing Tesla after following it into parking lot [Video] - Update - Drive Tesla Canada

 

[Singuy]

All stocks drop after huge run-ups - that's not even a question. And most of us expect it will run-up from here.

The question is, how far will it run up and how far will it drop. If a tree falls in the woods but no one is around to hear it, did it make a sound? In other words, if it runs up to $900 and falls back to $650, did it really drop? I'm not saying this is how it will happen (honestly, no one knows) but to constantly worry about or predict "drops" is just ridiculous.

And what is it about being included in the S&P 500 Index that justifies using the descriptor "fiasco"?

The fiasco is the sp movement. Snub, to inclusion, to maybe no squeeze, to maybe a squeeze. Share price swings +/- 100% to 200% from all this nonsense. That's the definition of a fiasco.

 

[Don TLR]

Wish I started the Option Alpha course earlier so I could have made a few extra shares on the inclusion. But I’ll just sit tight on HODL and watch the fun wile drinking a few bottles of Tesla Tequila.
Heck just buying and playing dead has been extremely profitable and will be celebrating the addition of a comma to my account in a few dollars so there is that. It’s going to be interesting to watch and read the comments here!

 

[Mo City]

I do hope them finding a successor to Elon is in the plans. He seems like not the worst choice. Elon has made Tesla what it is an will forever be part of Teslas DNA. But it would be nice to not need him to be CEO so that he could be less tied down by the beaurcracy. That guy has way to many genius level ideas in his head to be tied up with management stuff forever. Having him plan an orderly transition also seems like a better alternative to a sudden scary one

He would be a terrible choice.

I think it is very safe to say the new CEO (whenever one is eventually named) already works at Tesla. Someone proven, who has paid their dues and is steeped in the unique culture there.

Ain't no way they bring in an outsider.

 

[StealthP3D]

Daily 4% gains however, compounded by a final 10% spike would put TSLA above AAPL.

Tesla is still below AAPL?

Seriously though, looking forward it's a no-brainer that TSLA should be valued higher than AAPL since TSLA's addressable market is many times larger than Apple's. The two shouldn't even be compared.

 

[Johnny Ma]

The fiasco is the sp movement. Snub, to inclusion, to maybe no squeeze, to maybe a squeeze. Share price swings +/- 100% to 200% from all this nonsense. That's the definition of a fiasco.

There really wasn't ever a snub*. Qualifying for inclusion doesn't mean immediate inclusion.

*If I ever said there was a snub I blame the copious amounts of alcohol I've been forced to drink from the nonstop ATHs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wonder if insider MM's got the scoop on S&P info coming out in about an hour. . .

Meanwhile, MMs be like:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I still don't think there's going to be a big spike - and S&P seems to agree.

Do you think the big institutions are HODLers? They're going to start selling as soon as they think they're going to be able to buy their shares back at a lower price after the inclusion date. The higher the price goes, the faster they'll be selling.

There's also around 200M shares available to short right now..

It's very hard for a squeeze to happen when everyone knows it's going to happen and everyone knows the end date.

I think if the SP gets to around $650-675 Tesla will do a capital raise and that will be about the end of it.

I'm still fully invested in TSLA of course, and in fact a more orderly rise is a lot better for the SP than a temporary blow off top anyway.

I don't see this as physically possible. Nothing has changed.

SP still ratchets up any time more than a handful of orders are placed with any modest volume. No indication there's been significant buying yet from the institutional side. This should all still happen....in the buying window.

Will anyone be selling in a window where we spike from $650 to $900 or more? Perhaps, but not nearly enough to overwhelm buyers needing 8-16% of the float.

How are these institutional buyers gonna sell after the peak when the entire purpose of buying was to simply mimic TSLA's position in the S&P500? They're holding the shares forever, should be a post peak slide, but by definition it can't be back to the pre-window high. Unless of course things get really really out of control in the next 2 weeks.

 

[mejojo]

Between Federal and State taxes, even with long term capital gains, the government will take 25% of my gains. So to buy back the same number of shares, I need a 25% drop. To make it worth the risk, I need more of a drop so I have significantly more shares than I started with. Then there is the timing problem, and the fact that the market rarely does what I want it do, when I want it to.... That being said, I'm keeping all options open and will see how the next three weeks play out. It will be a gamble, so I won't do more than 1/3 of my core shares.

I think you're missing a couple of factors in this analysis....have you actually worked out how it would go?

 

[Mstanisz]

MeetKevin had an interesting point in his recent Tesla video regarding the inclusion date. Since index funds typically track to the S&P, they really don’t want to front run the stock purchase or else they aren’t tracking to the S&P anymore.