Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

My observation over the last several months is that he wants VW to fire him and is becoming disillusioned that it's taking them so long. He will likely end up working for Tesla in Berlin. He's a perfect fit.

I came to the same conclusion recently. DIess knew the end was coming and decided to go out loudly.

I don't agree he will join Tesla. Good guy but they don't need him.

 

[OrthoSurg]

When it gets close to $1650.16502 someone is going to have to walk me through putting a sell order in at a certain price... That SP will give me 1,000,000.00212 in my tax free account. I'll be teslanaire, and won't want to tempt fate.

you’ll get used to it.
Reached the 7 numbers 1 month ago with my TSLA holding.
Now, just waiting patiently for the 8 numbers.
Might happen before the end of the decade.

 

[pz1975]

This is, of course, pretty much pointless. Unless you're just doing it for entertainment or bragging rights. But seriously, there's nothing impressive about getting 40x return on a $100 investment. It's if you have the balls to bet half your portfolio that you get well-deserved admiration. Of course, you probably go broke too.

Where did I say it was $100? I said 1% - that is a vastly different amount for different people. Note that I have been buying and accumulating TSLA since 2013.

Also, I don’t care about “admiration”. I find when people accuse someone else of a negative trait, they should usually be looking in the mirror. I’ve had some posters thank me privately for posting my strategies and ask me to continue posting them. So that’s what I’m doing.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think people are delusional if they think Tsla will not drop after this entire fiasco considering just the thought that the squeeze may not be as large as expected has already caused a drop.

Like I said, zero allegiance to Tesla. They are just here for the gambling money.

All stocks drop after huge run-ups - that's not even a question. And most of us expect it will run-up from here.

The question is, how far will it run up and how far will it drop. If a tree falls in the woods but no one is around to hear it, did it make a sound? In other words, if it runs up to $900 and falls back to $650, did it really drop? I'm not saying this is how it will happen (honestly, no one knows) but to constantly worry about or predict "drops" is just ridiculous.

And what is it about being included in the S&P 500 Index that justifies using the descriptor "fiasco"?

 

[Green Pete]

I came to the same conclusion recently. DIess knew the end was coming and decided to go out loudly.

I don't agree he will join Tesla. Good guy but they don't need him.

I do hope them finding a successor to Elon is in the plans. He seems like not the worst choice. Elon has made Tesla what it is an will forever be part of Teslas DNA. But it would be nice to not need him to be CEO so that he could be less tied down by the beaurcracy. That guy has way to many genius level ideas in his head to be tied up with management stuff forever. Having him plan an orderly transition also seems like a better alternative to a sudden scary one

 

[Bet TSLA]

Justice is sweet!
Vandal caught on Sentry Mode knifing Tesla after following it into parking lot [Video] - Update - Drive Tesla Canada

 

[Singuy]

All stocks drop after huge run-ups - that's not even a question. And most of us expect it will run-up from here.

The question is, how far will it run up and how far will it drop. If a tree falls in the woods but no one is around to hear it, did it make a sound? In other words, if it runs up to $900 and falls back to $650, did it really drop? I'm not saying this is how it will happen (honestly, no one knows) but to constantly worry about or predict "drops" is just ridiculous.

And what is it about being included in the S&P 500 Index that justifies using the descriptor "fiasco"?

The fiasco is the sp movement. Snub, to inclusion, to maybe no squeeze, to maybe a squeeze. Share price swings +/- 100% to 200% from all this nonsense. That's the definition of a fiasco.

 

[Don TLR]

Wish I started the Option Alpha course earlier so I could have made a few extra shares on the inclusion. But I’ll just sit tight on HODL and watch the fun wile drinking a few bottles of Tesla Tequila.
Heck just buying and playing dead has been extremely profitable and will be celebrating the addition of a comma to my account in a few dollars so there is that. It’s going to be interesting to watch and read the comments here!

 

[Mo City]

I do hope them finding a successor to Elon is in the plans. He seems like not the worst choice. Elon has made Tesla what it is an will forever be part of Teslas DNA. But it would be nice to not need him to be CEO so that he could be less tied down by the beaurcracy. That guy has way to many genius level ideas in his head to be tied up with management stuff forever. Having him plan an orderly transition also seems like a better alternative to a sudden scary one

He would be a terrible choice.

I think it is very safe to say the new CEO (whenever one is eventually named) already works at Tesla. Someone proven, who has paid their dues and is steeped in the unique culture there.

Ain't no way they bring in an outsider.

 

[StealthP3D]

Daily 4% gains however, compounded by a final 10% spike would put TSLA above AAPL.

Tesla is still below AAPL?

Seriously though, looking forward it's a no-brainer that TSLA should be valued higher than AAPL since TSLA's addressable market is many times larger than Apple's. The two shouldn't even be compared.

 

[Johnny Ma]

The fiasco is the sp movement. Snub, to inclusion, to maybe no squeeze, to maybe a squeeze. Share price swings +/- 100% to 200% from all this nonsense. That's the definition of a fiasco.

There really wasn't ever a snub*. Qualifying for inclusion doesn't mean immediate inclusion.

*If I ever said there was a snub I blame the copious amounts of alcohol I've been forced to drink from the nonstop ATHs.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wonder if insider MM's got the scoop on S&P info coming out in about an hour. . .

Meanwhile, MMs be like:

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I still don't think there's going to be a big spike - and S&P seems to agree.

Do you think the big institutions are HODLers? They're going to start selling as soon as they think they're going to be able to buy their shares back at a lower price after the inclusion date. The higher the price goes, the faster they'll be selling.

There's also around 200M shares available to short right now..

It's very hard for a squeeze to happen when everyone knows it's going to happen and everyone knows the end date.

I think if the SP gets to around $650-675 Tesla will do a capital raise and that will be about the end of it.

I'm still fully invested in TSLA of course, and in fact a more orderly rise is a lot better for the SP than a temporary blow off top anyway.

I don't see this as physically possible. Nothing has changed.

SP still ratchets up any time more than a handful of orders are placed with any modest volume. No indication there's been significant buying yet from the institutional side. This should all still happen....in the buying window.

Will anyone be selling in a window where we spike from $650 to $900 or more? Perhaps, but not nearly enough to overwhelm buyers needing 8-16% of the float.

How are these institutional buyers gonna sell after the peak when the entire purpose of buying was to simply mimic TSLA's position in the S&P500? They're holding the shares forever, should be a post peak slide, but by definition it can't be back to the pre-window high. Unless of course things get really really out of control in the next 2 weeks.

 

[mejojo]

Between Federal and State taxes, even with long term capital gains, the government will take 25% of my gains. So to buy back the same number of shares, I need a 25% drop. To make it worth the risk, I need more of a drop so I have significantly more shares than I started with. Then there is the timing problem, and the fact that the market rarely does what I want it do, when I want it to.... That being said, I'm keeping all options open and will see how the next three weeks play out. It will be a gamble, so I won't do more than 1/3 of my core shares.

I think you're missing a couple of factors in this analysis....have you actually worked out how it would go?

 

[Mstanisz]

MeetKevin had an interesting point in his recent Tesla video regarding the inclusion date. Since index funds typically track to the S&P, they really don’t want to front run the stock purchase or else they aren’t tracking to the S&P anymore.

 

[Quesder]

I used to think this is true but it's not.
So if you had 100k gains and paid 25k in taxes.
You use 75k to buy tsla again at 25% off to have the same amount of shares.
However those same amount of shares are now post tax vs before. So you don't have to wait for a 25% off at all to break even money wise. You do if you want the same amount of shares but that doesn't really mean anything.

Sounds interesting, i never think about that

would you mind to give an concrete example with numbers to explain the concept deeper? Thanks

 

[FireMedic]

I enjoy reading all these predictions and conjecture about crazy run ups/dips and bubbles… But I prefer to just focus on the fundamentals. For most of us long term holders I really just don’t think any of this stuff matters.

I’m grateful I have the shares I have, and I know that many here feel the same. No chance I’d sell any shares on the suspicion or hope for a dip. Unless (or until) something fundamentally changes with this business; the overall trajectory is up. I’m not risking any of my precious ownership stake.
The more the MM’s act greedy, the better off us high conviction HODLers will be.

 

[Rarity]

Bloomberg is reporting that the Tripp lawsuit has settled. He will pay $400k and admit wrongdoing.

Ex-Tesla Factory Worker to Pay $400,000 to End Feud With Musk

Something tells me that this won't be the end of the story. Either he won't pay and we will be back in court, or he will turn on the people who paid him for leaking. It would be great to know names and amounts.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Where did I say it was $100? I said 1% - that is a vastly different amount for different people. Note that I have been buying and accumulating TSLA since 2013.

Also, I don’t care about “admiration”. I find when people accuse someone else of a negative trait, they should usually be looking in the mirror. I’ve had some posters thank me privately for posting my strategies and ask me to continue posting them. So that’s what I’m doing.

I must have missed the 1%, probably because you didn't say that. You said a very tiny %. People (including me) do all sorts of crazy ass things with tiny percentages of their portfolios, especially if they're up and believe they're playing with house money. It's when fools see them making a ton of money (you know, up 40x one out of 40 times, but that's the time they talk about) and try to copy them that things go very bad.

I make wild bets with small amounts too, and of course I lose a lot and win occasionally. Whee! It's meaningless unless you can do it often with significant amounts of money. I do it because it's entertaining.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Watching a live ticker probably conveys the TLDR contents of the announcement.

Indeed. Or as Edward Teller once tweeted, "It's a Boy!"

Cheers!