Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Carsonight has an update on Fremont cell volumes.
View attachment 612410
https://twitter.com/carsonight/status/1332418955386912768

From today's Reuters article regarding cell production increases:
Exclusive: LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Tesla demand - sources

There is the following paragraph:

LG Chem has already added production lines in South Korea this year mainly to meet demand from Tesla’s U.S. plant, the people said. Moreover, the automaker has asked Japan’s Panasonic Corp - which supplies the U.S. plant - to also supply its Shanghai factory, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the matter was confidential.

Fremont is now receiving cells from both GF1 and from overseas. Meaning the GF1 bottleneck is no longer a hard limitation on the number of vehicles Fremont can produce.

Carsonight states the same.

https://twitter.com/carsonight/status/1333681255850733568

 

[Maarten]

Just couldn't wait anymore.
Bought the new roadster and.... it was delivered this week!!

 

[FS_FRA]

My observation over the last several months is that he wants VW to fire him and is becoming disillusioned that it's taking them so long. He will likely end up working for Tesla in Berlin. He's a perfect fit.

Not sure of the oversized ego required to be CEO of a company such as Volkswagen will fit inside Tesla Berlin next to / under Elons....

I really hope he manages to stay at VW with the blessings of all (Family, Lower Saxony, Unions....) and that he continues to transform VW into a sustainable transportation company alongside Tesla.

 

[pz1975]

Sorry, wasn't really you or this particular trade. But your original "If the SP does what I expect, I'm going make a killing on the way up and down." was just asking for a smackdown. Anybody can make arbitrary amounts of money if "the SP does what I expect". And if you're putting only a small percentage of your money on that bet then you don't really have much confidence in what you claim to expect.

I'm getting more than a little tired of all these posts about people's short-term gut guesses that don't mean a thing. I think it's pretty disrespectful of people like @FrankSG who put serious amounts of work into their reasoning and share it with everybody.

So tell me, is what you expect based on anything? How does it mesh with what @FrankSG has posted? Do you think the SP is going down after inclusion based on any particular analysis? Me, I think we're seeing a shortage of supply and an excess of demand, leaving a permanently smaller supply, so I think the stock price is going up and staying up. Yes, it will likely overshoot and drop back some, but not all that much. And the Q4 production and delivery report will come out not much after, and it will be scary awesome, so I can't see TSLA staying down much for very long. But what do I know?

I was 90%+ sure TSLA was going to go up after the S&P announcement so I bought short-term calls. I’m not going to rehash all the arguments here written by others that led to this - we all know them. The point of me posting my trades is to give a strategy on how to take advantage using options at a time like that when the movement of the stock was a very high chance in one direction. I wouldn’t risk a significant % of my portfolio (majority TSLA shares plus some LEAPS) on that bet though, but I wanted to show how a smallish % of one’s investment (willing to lose) can become something significant if done properly and with conviction. That was my 40x in January. 40 x 1% of a portfolio is a lot (later diluted since the rest of the portfolio went up as well of course).

I don’t think TSLA is dropping back to pre-S&P levels after the buying is done. I agree there will be a new higher level. I do think the SP will overshoot its ultimate new level as it usually does (go look at previous very large increases over weeks - always followed by a drop back of some amount).

The point of buying puts (and maybe sell some way OTM calls when IV is crazy high) is to take some of the profit from the calls I will make if the SP keeps going up, and try to squeeze a little more from the anticipated downward correction. The profit I will use (again I will only use some) will be “house money” at that point so I am willing to lose it. I estimate a 70-80% chance of some sort of significant drop IF the SP has gone to a very high level (over 750-850). The higher it goes, the higher my conviction that there will be a drop and thus the higher the profits I will get by playing both directions if I am right. I oils never expect to time the movements perfectly but I don’t have to in order to do well.

 

[FS_FRA]

FTFY

and I always thought -phyll was a reference to syphilis ...which would explain a thing or two.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Another 10 posts on taxes moved to Tax questions and strategies. It began pretty much on topic (the tax consequences of trading a possible S&P 500 peak) but started becoming more generic.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not sure of the oversized ego required to be CEO of a company such as Volkswagen will fit inside Tesla Berlin next to / under Elons....

I really hope he manages to stay at VW with the blessings of all (Family, Lower Saxony, Unions....) and that he continues to transform VW into a sustainable transportation company alongside Tesla.

I'm not sure how much Diess could bring to the table for Tesla.

He has management experience in one of the few companies larger than Tesla - but how relevant is that? His experience is in a heavily politicised organisation trying to adapt a long history of ICE manufacturing into the new world. Tesla runs under a benevolent dictatorship under Elon.

He is very well connected in German/EU politics which might be useful to open doors or perhaps change Tesla's image in certain parts of Europe ("Tesla now has a proper vehicle manufacturing leadership"). The political element is probably less relevant these days as governments all over the world are throwing offers at Tesla to bring manufacturing to their shores, but could still be useful negotiating with German work councils.

He's probably best used at Tesla as in a fluffy job such as "policy expert" or "thought leader" who can help out with negotiations through the EU bureaucracy.

@avoigt What are your thoughts?

 

[amolina]

Mark Spiegel Finally admitted to his mistake /s
Check this one out Home, Mark b spiegel

 

[FS_FRA]

I'm not sure how much Diess could bring to the table for Tesla.

@avoigt What are your thoughts?

I don't think the question should be what he can bring to Tesla's table, but rather: where can he best support the transformation of the transportation industry to real sustainability. I don't believe that's at Tesla - I do believe VW is where he should be doing this.

Personally, I don't think he's going to go from being CEO of one of the largest companies in the world, to be just another senior manager somewhere else. Could he be groomed to become Elon's successor @ Tesla?

 

[Tslynk67]

Does that mean the Index funds cannot start buying TSLA before Dec.11, since they do not know what to sell to free up the money ?

In other words, two more weeks of free front-running for those who want to make a quick-buck and sell after the big buy run-up ?

It's a total re-balance. Aside dumping ALL the shares of the company that will exit the index, they will have to adapt their positions in the other 496, or however many there are, to match the new weightings. And they can't do this until the rebalance is published.

Of course, if allowed by the rules (which nobody really seems to know) they could perhaps take a 1% position of their portfolio in $TSLA already as a pre-emptive strike.

 

[Tslynk67]

Hold up, is S&P that stupid or do you experts think there's a capital raise incoming? I'm going with stupid, for now.

I think they've been looking at daily volume and have decided there's enough trading volume to cover it.

What they don't realise is that it's Citadel selling to Susquehanna, Susquehanna selling back to Citadel, just one share all day

 

[KMCC]

Remember martin tripp?

Factory Worker to Pay $400,000 to End Feud With Musk
By
Robert Burnson
November 30, 2020, 9:50 PM EST

• 
  Martin Tripp admits in settlement to trade-secret violations
• 
  Tripp had told news media of Gigafactory production delays

In this article
TSLA
TESLA INC
567.60
USD
-18.16-3.10%
A former Tesla Inc. employee who locked horns with Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk has agreed to pay the company $400,000 for telling reporters about production delays at its Gigafactory in Nevada, according to a court filing.



The payment is part of a proposed settlement of a lawsuit Tesla filed in 2018 that accused Martin Tripp of illegally divulging trade secrets about the production of Tesla’s Model 3.




As part of the accord, Tripp admitted to violating trade secret laws and confidentiality agreements and promised to pay Tesla $25,000 for continuing to reveal information about the company, despite being ordered to stop by a judge.



Read More -- Tesla’s Phantom Shooter: The Strange Story of a Debunked Threat



Tripp was a process technician at Tesla’s Gigafactory from 2017 to 2018. While still at the company, he sent emails to reporters saying that it would be unable to reach Musk’s publicly stated goal of producing 5,000 Model 3s a week.


Tesla fired Tripp when the company found out he was the source of the information. Subsequently, he and Musk publicly traded insults.

Tripp countersued Musk for defamation, but the federal judge handling the case threw it out, ruling that the technician had failed to show that the CEO had acted with actual malice.

The case is Tesla Inc. v. Tripp, 3:18-cv-00296, U.S. District Court, District of Nevada (Reno).

 

[Tslynk67]

Any particular reason you need to jump up this person's ass? There's an ignore feature if you can't handle this poster. Otherwise, all your complaints is OT!

I gave you a "like" for this, but have no idea who you're responding too, which I found kinda ironic

So, any one fancy another ATH today?

After the huge AH volume yesterday, has been very sleepy so far in pre-pre-market, but rather than the SP being pushed-down before pre-market open, it has been creeping up the last hour.

Which bodes well, IMO. But not an advice.

 

[MABMAB]

Those that make price predictions (before, during, and after inclusion) comparing FB to TSLA, really just need to take a step back and look at the long term chart. This is all you need.

 

[Tslynk67]

I came to the same conclusion recently. DIess knew the end was coming and decided to go out loudly.

I don't agree he will join Tesla. Good guy but they don't need him.

Disagree, there's a recruitment-drive on for delivery staff right now

 

[Unpilot]

Good morning...now I'm not a numerologist...but I got up at 6am had coffee at 6:16.

The high temp is supposed to be 66 today...rising to 70 as the week goes on.

All in all pretty good signals I say.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yes, any Tesla with independently adjustable air suspension could benefit on the track from this kind of control but I think it might be banned by some controlling bodies.

In addition to performance, this feature will make other active dampening systems look like garbage. The potential for a buttery smooth ride is immense.

Or, once Tesla starts offering autonomous hotel rooms imagine sleeping overnight without even feeling like you are moving. I expect that at one point we will see semi trailers setup like train sleeper cars.

I always use my example of flying to FL. A family of 4 is looking at about 2k for flights. Surely we could instead rent them a room that drives to their destination overnight on a bus/trailer for half that price. Greener, safer(potentially), less hassle, cleaner etc.

 

[bhtooefr]

...worth noting that that feature (using computer vision to predict suspension demands) is actually not new, Mercedes-Benz had it in 2013:

However, I wouldn't be surprised if the FSD computer being used for active suspension control would be better optimized.

 

[Cape Coddess]

I always use my example of flying to FL. A family of 4 is looking at about 2k for flights. Surely we could instead rent them a room that drives to their destination overnight on a bus/trailer for half that price. Greener, safer(potentially), less hassle, cleaner etc.

This is exactly what I'm going to be using my Cybertruck for... sleeping in the back twice a year, up and down the East Coast. I had to tell the board at the Florida condo that it was a large modernized El Camino, because pickup trucks are not allowed. They think it looks really cool.

(Hopefully by the end of 2022, when my little truck will be ready, it will have a little bathroom.)

 

[OrthoSurg]

Lets not forget short covering. That plus retail and daytrader speculation plus longs completely unwilling to sell gets us here easily. I expect we'll see $650 before any real inclusion buying happens, perhaps more.

This addition is going to be a mess, but it's important for you all to remember.....IT'S ENTIRELY THEIR OWN FAULT. If S&P hadn't held Tesla out for an entire year longer just to please a few of their clients, this would have been easy enough to announce and add with 7 days notice.

What are the probabilities of the stock going down the week prior to the inclusion?
The current stock holders would have to sell off more than 50B?