Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

POLL: Short term SP Predictions
3 questions - above or below $1k before, during and after inclusion.

 

[gabeincal]

If the SP does what I expect, I'm going make a killing on the way up and down. I have a boatload of calls already that are way up and I will hold them until near Dec. 18/21. Then when the top seems near, I will buy a boatload of shoter-term puts with some of the profits from my calls. (no I would not be a bear as my core shares/LEAPS I am not touching and they will massively dwarf any puts I buy). This could end up being a 10-30 bagger both up and down!

I hope this ages well for you.

 

[Artful Dodger]

That dish that's best served cold - learn it, if you don't know that already.

Hasenpfeffer? Schadenfreude? Comes around, goes around...

Cheers to the longs!

 

[StealthP3D]

Can you explain how, even being in a taxable account, it would not be a good thing to sell before a (conservative) 30% drop?

You have a time machine?

 

[Green Pete]

You have a time machine?

I sold him a copy of "The Nice and Accurate Prophecies of Agnes Nutter, Witch"

 

[Jackl1956]

I am looking forward to a massive shift, from fossil fuel investing to sustainable transportation and renewable energy.

Exxon tries to put the worst behind it with $20 billion writedown

It just makes great sense.

 

[9837264723849]

I came to the same conclusion recently. DIess knew the end was coming and decided to go out loudly.

I don't agree he will join Tesla. Good guy but they don't need him.

On the board

 

[Drumheller]

Roadster referral wins are being added to winners' Tesla accounts.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Imagine Roadster being announced for 2021 release. All the money investors made from TSLA can go back to Tesla in the form of $200,000 sports cars.

 

[Lycanthrope]

This exactly. An index fund is not a speculator, an index fund that "beats the index" is doing it wrong. Of course they could drive the price up with their mandatory buying but as you say they should be completely agnostic to this phenomenon.

Correct, because it's a "rebalancing", meaning $TSLA does "add" to the $ value of the funds matching the index on 21/12, but displaces other positions which will be sold for buying $TSLA.

The only thing the fund managers care about is getting that %age balance as close to what the [email protected] decree.

For us, the daily swings in $TSLA has quite an impact in our portfolios, in my case I'm 100% all-in, so a 10% movement leads to, say, a 15% change in value (taking into account average on LEAPS), for the S&P tracker funds, we're talking about a 10% movement on a position that has a 1.X% value in their portfolio. Doesn't change that much in the grand scheme of things.

 

[MP3Mike]

Roadster referral wins are being added to winners' Tesla accounts.

View attachment 613373

I'm assuming that this is from DÆrik's recent twitter post. This isn't anything new, they have been like this forever.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Whatever happened to Tesla buying a chunk of LG?

LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Tesla demand: Reuters
LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Tesla demand: Reuters, citing sources

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Lucid completes factory construction, aims to ramp up to 400,000 electric cars per year - Electrek

Lucid aims to build 400,000 cars In it’s new factory.

 

[WarpedOne]

LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Tesla demand: Reuters

How come the above does not read:

• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Hyundai demand"
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Kia demand"
  
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet VW demand"
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Porsche demand"
  
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Audi demand"
  
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet GM demand"
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Ford demand"
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Renault demand"
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Nissan demand"
• "LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Toyota demand"

We are led to believe every non-Tesla EV manufacturer is somehow limited by battery supply.
That they would love to build more EVs but they can't get more batteries.

What is so special with Tesla that LG agreed to double their production capacity just for Tesla?
The intent - Tesla really want's to build more, the others don't, they just seek excuses.

Buying nonTesla EV-s thus ends up as financial support for those excuses.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Thank you for this. And the price action for that 2013 event is below. It dips after the 24th, but not for long. And I bet FB didn't have that volume of short that TSLA does.

View attachment 613365

Isn’t the only thing that matters how much of FB’s free float had to be bought and what the daily liquidity was? Those seem to be the most important factors in predicting what the SP will do when TSLA is included. Does anyone know what % of FB’s free float had to be bought?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Carsonight has an update on Fremont cell volumes.
View attachment 612410
https://twitter.com/carsonight/status/1332418955386912768

From today's Reuters article regarding cell production increases:
Exclusive: LG Chem to double China battery capacity to meet Tesla demand - sources

There is the following paragraph:

LG Chem has already added production lines in South Korea this year mainly to meet demand from Tesla’s U.S. plant, the people said. Moreover, the automaker has asked Japan’s Panasonic Corp - which supplies the U.S. plant - to also supply its Shanghai factory, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the matter was confidential.

Fremont is now receiving cells from both GF1 and from overseas. Meaning the GF1 bottleneck is no longer a hard limitation on the number of vehicles Fremont can produce.

Carsonight states the same.

https://twitter.com/carsonight/status/1333681255850733568

 

[Maarten]

Just couldn't wait anymore.
Bought the new roadster and.... it was delivered this week!!

 

[FS_FRA]

My observation over the last several months is that he wants VW to fire him and is becoming disillusioned that it's taking them so long. He will likely end up working for Tesla in Berlin. He's a perfect fit.

Not sure of the oversized ego required to be CEO of a company such as Volkswagen will fit inside Tesla Berlin next to / under Elons....

I really hope he manages to stay at VW with the blessings of all (Family, Lower Saxony, Unions....) and that he continues to transform VW into a sustainable transportation company alongside Tesla.

 

[pz1975]

Sorry, wasn't really you or this particular trade. But your original "If the SP does what I expect, I'm going make a killing on the way up and down." was just asking for a smackdown. Anybody can make arbitrary amounts of money if "the SP does what I expect". And if you're putting only a small percentage of your money on that bet then you don't really have much confidence in what you claim to expect.

I'm getting more than a little tired of all these posts about people's short-term gut guesses that don't mean a thing. I think it's pretty disrespectful of people like @FrankSG who put serious amounts of work into their reasoning and share it with everybody.

So tell me, is what you expect based on anything? How does it mesh with what @FrankSG has posted? Do you think the SP is going down after inclusion based on any particular analysis? Me, I think we're seeing a shortage of supply and an excess of demand, leaving a permanently smaller supply, so I think the stock price is going up and staying up. Yes, it will likely overshoot and drop back some, but not all that much. And the Q4 production and delivery report will come out not much after, and it will be scary awesome, so I can't see TSLA staying down much for very long. But what do I know?

I was 90%+ sure TSLA was going to go up after the S&P announcement so I bought short-term calls. I’m not going to rehash all the arguments here written by others that led to this - we all know them. The point of me posting my trades is to give a strategy on how to take advantage using options at a time like that when the movement of the stock was a very high chance in one direction. I wouldn’t risk a significant % of my portfolio (majority TSLA shares plus some LEAPS) on that bet though, but I wanted to show how a smallish % of one’s investment (willing to lose) can become something significant if done properly and with conviction. That was my 40x in January. 40 x 1% of a portfolio is a lot (later diluted since the rest of the portfolio went up as well of course).

I don’t think TSLA is dropping back to pre-S&P levels after the buying is done. I agree there will be a new higher level. I do think the SP will overshoot its ultimate new level as it usually does (go look at previous very large increases over weeks - always followed by a drop back of some amount).

The point of buying puts (and maybe sell some way OTM calls when IV is crazy high) is to take some of the profit from the calls I will make if the SP keeps going up, and try to squeeze a little more from the anticipated downward correction. The profit I will use (again I will only use some) will be “house money” at that point so I am willing to lose it. I estimate a 70-80% chance of some sort of significant drop IF the SP has gone to a very high level (over 750-850). The higher it goes, the higher my conviction that there will be a drop and thus the higher the profits I will get by playing both directions if I am right. I oils never expect to time the movements perfectly but I don’t have to in order to do well.

 

[FS_FRA]

FTFY

and I always thought -phyll was a reference to syphilis ...which would explain a thing or two.