Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

Imagine Roadster being announced for 2021 release. All the money investors made from TSLA can go back to Tesla in the form of $200,000 sports cars.

I’ve mentally started pricing the Roadster in terms of shares. Is it worth 400 shares to me? 200?...

Only half kidding. I probably won’t get it and if I did, I’d probably finance it.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm assuming that this is from DÆrik's recent twitter post. This isn't anything new, they have been like this forever.

Paul from Clean Technica is reporting that his was just added.

I checked my account. No free roadster despite my whole 2 referrals. :/

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA 08:00 A.M. Real-time chart:

Pre-Market Vol by 8 a.m. was 692K shares (v.respectable).

08:00 A.M. SP: $596.10 +$28.50 +4.92%

Cheers!

 

[Prunesquallor]

Once again, I fired up the Way, Way, Wayback Machine:

On April 27, 2014, Standard & Poor's gave Tesla's credit an unsolicited junk bond rating of B-, or "highly speculative", with its analysts' comments including the categorization of Tesla as a "niche" automaker, and cast a shadow on the company's long-term prospects. Not uncoincidentally, but I found in my files a note that at that time, TSLA's market cap was $17.8 billion (has it risen since then, anyone?).

Here is my post from that day, including some wording from S&P that jarred me then, as it should all now:



Summary: Oh man, have I been waiting a long, Long, LONG time for this month. That dish that's best served cold - learn it, if you don't know that already.

The amazing thing is that was only six years ago. It just reiterates that we shouldn’t be surprised that many/most financial institutions and analysts are clueless when in comes to Tesla.

This also leads me to imagine that decades from now, when some doctoral candidate or Tri-D programmer wants to write the history of Tesla, the TMC archives, if they survive in some form, would be an invaluable resource. Sort of like letters from the troops during a war.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla keeps advancing automotive technology by leveraging their existing technological lead:

View attachment 613358

At first glance I thought, "Ho-hum, of course, no big deal". But as I thought about the implications I realized how huge it was for Tesla.

What does it mean that the Cybertruck's air suspension will be "linked to FSD"? Potentially a lot of things, one of the more compelling things to my way of thinking is controlling body roll around corners.
...
Cybertruck is going to absolutely decimate the traditional truck market. Traditionists will be a small minority, outdated curmudgeons stuck in the past. This is one more way Tesla will achieve incredible growth rates and demand beyond most peoples imagination. The value these innovations bring to consumers will ensure superior margins for years to come.

Probably already said by others, but I'm behind, tilting like a motorbike or fast train (eg Pendalino Tilting train - Wikipedia). Force goes more vertically than side to side. Probably great for preventing car sickness.

 

[H Mak]

Coming up later today 'An evening with Elon Musk - Mission to Mars' as part of the ceremony to present him with the 2020 Axel Springer award. Previous recipients include Jeff Bezos and Tim Berners-Lee.

How to watch live as Elon Musk talks life, business and Mars Tuesday

 

[redan]

I'm assuming that this is from DÆrik's recent twitter post. This isn't anything new, they have been like this forever.

While it's been in the account before, it looked as if it were a purchase (without the requirement to add the down payment, even though there was a link to pay the down payment - which Tesla said to ignore). Now it shows as a full fledged referral award, with no down payment link.

 

[lafrisbee]

No, they really don't.

This has been explained like 50 times lately, not sure why folks keep repeating the claim.





Conflicting opinions- but only one set of facts.

The time any fund has to buy the shares are set by the rules of that fund.

Each fund has its own rules.

SPY- as you cite, has 3 days before and after the inclusion date to buy.

Other funds have 7 days either way.

Other funds have other windows.

Some also include specific disclaimers allowing the managers to briefly deviate from the normal rules in situations they think appropriate.


That said-



Absolutely... most of the larger funds I'm aware of at least would not, and in fact by their own rules could not be buying this early... and no earlier than Dec 14... (and potentially as late as Dec 28).





See above.

Most can't buy because their own rules don't allow buying that far ahead of inclusion date.

Who they're dropping doesn't really matter that much, it's not like they're dropping someone with the same weighted market cap as Tesla where it'd be dollar for dollar anyway- they'll need to sell down some of EVERYTHING.







This argument is really perplexing.

Since you're not an index fund you can buy or sell whatever shares you want whenever you want (within the bounds of your fund rules- like if you're a real estate fund you probably can't buy Boeing or whatever)

If your goal, as the benchmarkers goal is, is to BEAT the returns of the S&P 500, you'd already own a bunch of Tesla and would have for a while now

You'd have no need to buy a bunch more during a price spike.... on the contrary the spike would make the bunch you smartly bought 6 months or a year ago look fantastic on your results...

(see ARK funds results vs an S&P500 index fund for some examples).

THis post seems to explain and provide a wealth of sensical information concerning all this mess.
IF this is all true, and even mostly true then a different buying pattern will occur.
Rob? are you there? Knightshade seems to have refuted your sources. While you have been the most believable youtube source, Knightshades understanding makes much more financial sense concerning the rules around buying a stock being admitted to any Index, yes?

 

[Bobfitz1]

Yes, any Tesla with independently adjustable air suspension could benefit on the track from this kind of control but I think it might be banned by some controlling bodies.

I'm sure you are right FSD controlled IAAS will offer the biggest benefits to Cybertruck. I'm excited to learn it's getting a lot of attention for likely future use in all (upscale) Tesla models. Sandy Munroe pointed out recently that Model Y suspension design seems ready for addition of air suspension. Elon's tweet reply to voice control of air suspension question seems like another clue Model Y may get IAAS in 2021.
Hopefully it will be included when Texas GF begins producing the next gen 4680 powered Y second half of next year.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A) Today is going to be bananas. Far beyond the premarket pop. Perhaps back down and then up even higher. IV explosion!

B) I'm starting to think this 36 day notice from the S&P committee wasn't about TSLA, but about selling everyone else. I think their big concern was the triple witching on the 18th combined with all the shares that need to be sold of the existing 500 list. That almost makes sense. Give everyone a month to slowly sell off shares.

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm not sure how much Diess could bring to the table for Tesla.

He has management experience in one of the few companies larger than Tesla - but how relevant is that? His experience is in a heavily politicised organisation trying to adapt a long history of ICE manufacturing into the new world. Tesla runs under a benevolent dictatorship under Elon.

He is very well connected in German/EU politics which might be useful to open doors or perhaps change Tesla's image in certain parts of Europe ("Tesla now has a proper vehicle manufacturing leadership"). The political element is probably less relevant these days as governments all over the world are throwing offers at Tesla to bring manufacturing to their shores, but could still be useful negotiating with German work councils.

He's probably best used at Tesla as in a fluffy job such as "policy expert" or "thought leader" who can help out with negotiations through the EU bureaucracy.

I like the direction of your thinking and I would suggest Diess is more adept at being flexible and doing something new than many here are giving him credit for. The fact that he "gets it" even though he is an ICE insider shows that he has what it takes to be a huge asset to Tesla. He would probably take a huge pay cut being forward thinking enough to trust the stock options would MORE than make up for it.

 

[Nocturnal]

I like the direction of your thinking and I would suggest Diess is more adept at being flexible and doing something new than many here are giving him credit for. The fact that he "gets it" even though he is an ICE insider shows that he has what it takes to be a huge asset to Tesla. He would probably take a huge pay cut being forward thinking enough to trust the stock options would MORE than make up for it.

I’d also point out that being head of Tesla Europe (or whatever the equivalent is) is arguably a promotion from being CEO of VW today, and in 5 years it certainly will be.

For that matter, Elon won’t be CEO of Tesla forever. Not that I’m advocating for Diess to take that role, but that’s in the realm of possibility.

 

[Navin]

Time to turn on the lights...

The Dark Money Secretly Bankrolling Activist Short-Sellers — and the Insiders Trying to Expose It

 

[Bobfitz1]

Do you think the SP is going down after inclusion based on any particular analysis? Me, I think we're seeing a shortage of supply and an excess of demand, leaving a permanently smaller supply, so I think the stock price is going up and staying up. Yes, it will likely overshoot and drop back some, but not all that much. And the Q4 production and delivery report will come out not much after, and it will be scary awesome, so I can't see TSLA staying down much for very long. But what do I know?

I hope you are right. However how much SP drops back and for how long is going to be heavily influenced by how far it overshoots. Which I haven't seen anyone suggest they can predict with confidence.

 

[wtlloyd]

Diess most obviously would be ideal heading up ZETA. ZETA, in turn, should expand to a world wide position, promoting transport vehicle electrification to governments across the globe and providing a more coordinated approach to resource management and vehicle production.

 

[strago13]

I’d also point out that being head of Tesla Europe (or whatever the equivalent is) is arguably a promotion from being CEO of VW today, and in 5 years it certainly will be.

For that matter, Elon won’t be CEO of Tesla forever. Not that I’m advocating for Diess to take that role, but that’s in the realm of possibility.

Diess is 62 years old, so he isnt a spring chicken and certainly not Elons successor in 5+ years. That's clearly a role earmarked for Jerome.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Tesla Should Launch a Human Driven Ride-Hail Service to Accelerate Its Autonomous Strategy

Tesla Should Launch a Human Driven Ride-Hail Service to Accelerate Its Autonomous Strategy
Tasha Keeney-Work-Remote-Headshot
by Tasha Keeney, CFA, Analyst
December 01, 2020

 

[StealthP3D]

...worth noting that that feature (using computer vision to predict suspension demands) is actually not new, Mercedes-Benz had it in 2013:

However, I wouldn't be surprised if the FSD computer being used for active suspension control would be better optimized.

I love that they call it "Magic Carpet"!

This is very rudimentary compared to what Tesla will be able to leverage with their FSD computer. The Mercedes did not (and does not) have the computing power and training to map the radii of the upcoming corners. To do that requires mapping the road edges in 3D space, something Tesla's already do. It sounds like it was limited to creating a basic terrain map of the road immediately in front of the car. In other words, it doesn't sound like it would work for pre-emptive roll control. It also sounds like the system would require a lot of dedicated hardware while Tesla vehicles already have FSD computers and cameras so there is no additional cost (beyond software development) to add this feature to all vehicles with air suspension.

 

[jhm]

Inclusion Day is coming, 12-21-2020

Let's make this a holiday, a holiday to celebrate a better future for everybody.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Imagine Roadster being announced for 2021 release. All the money investors made from TSLA can go back to Tesla in the form of $200,000 sports cars.

Scary how quickly a Roadster II has become a purchase option to many here who might be tempted! Lucky for me I don't have another bay for it in my garage. Oh, wait. If I pass on the cold thruster package that would cover adding a fourth bay.