Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Looking at this squeeze, am I selling at 900? 1000, 1100?

You can guarantee your selling price simply by submiting a normal limit order. What you won't guarantee is getting your share of any 'upside' to the Official Closing Price (OCP).

Or, you can guarantee that your shares will sell, and that you'll get the OCP. But what you won't guarantee is that the SP won't go up after-hrs.

There's no 'risk-free' lunch. I suggest either deciding in advance what SP you'd be satisfied sellling at, and make peace with that. Or play options if you want to trade closer to the wick.

GTLA (except the naked shortzes. those folks deserve what they get).

Cheers!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I've never traded anything after-hours that I can recall. Fidelity certainly shows after-hours as an option on the sell tickets, so it's available. Can someone confirm I'll be able to sell TSLA shares after-hours from my Fidelity IRA account?

Relax! It'll only be a small handful, maybe a bit more if we spike to something astronomical.

 

[MXWing]

Agreed, this does seem to be an important topic of discussion. Couple things, this is not a one time event, but happens at the end of every trading day. That means that it is susceptible to the same effects of supply/demand and human psychology. What happens if some buyers decide to front run this mechanism, trying to get in before a run up? Does that not drive up the midpoint between buy/ask before the cross begins? Obviously there has already been a lot of front running driving the sp higher. The question is, what happens when the buying window for indexed funds opens? Are there enough front runners selling to supply the demands of required buyers, and at what price? Will they sell during regular hours, or into a closing cross?

I certainly have no experience in this area, but do value the discussion around it.

Full link: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/productsservices/trading/crosses/openclose_faqs.pdf

My belief is that bid/ask spread in question is going to be derived from the Cross orders, and not the market orders. Orders can be submitted for the cross as early as 4:00AM but in practice, probably 3:54PM on 12/18/2020.

I think there is a BIG difference between this and normal orders for buy/sell because you CANNOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF REAL TIME FLUCUATIONS in the AH. What you submit to buy is fixed. What you submit to sell is fixed. The closing "handshake" is done in advance.

We are learning together on this (assuming we are willing to not spend our time discussing DIVIDENDS, APPLE (I'm guilty of this) or writing poetry.

100%, SOME front runners are going to submit their cross sell orders at below the closing ask. If you had a chance to lock in guaranteed profits and from shares possibly on margin, they would be suicidal to not do it.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Your insights are greatly appreciated. Looks like the 18th may be an especially wild ride during trading hours with so many options expiring that day, with declining delta hedging requirements as calls are sold to close...but still maybe not providing enough supply to satisfy demand.

In a Roth account (no margin available to exercise a bunch of calls)... If one agrees with your view of not enough short term money to satisfy index demand (I assume you’re referring to the auction at close?), does it make sense to hold onto those calls until the last couple of minutes before close?

Would seem nice if I could let them all expire ITM & ask Etrade to immediately exercise them all & sell off only enough shares at this auction price to cover the exercising funding requirements.

edit: Do you have any 12/18 calls? @FrankSG has said he has some, would love to hear any thoughts you & Frank have on them. TIA.

Unfortunately or perhaps fortunately, I have a boat load of 12/18 700c. I’m really nervous about those, because it’s basically a large YOLO bet. I sold shares to buy them, so if I don’t sell them, or they finish OTM by even $0.01, I will be screwed out of a lot of TSLA’s future appreciation. Since the MM have a great ability to keep the SP below max pain or whatever price they want on Friday expiration’s, I’m super nervous these will expire worthless at 4:00 pm with SP=699.98. Then after hours and Monday, the SP will explode.

I cannot put in a market orders on options, and I cannot put in trades quickly on my platform. How can I prepare for the last 5-15 min of trading without losing it all? I’ve put in some limit orders at $20, $40, $60, $100, and $200/contract. Too high? Too low? Any advice in advance would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Uh, this is sloppy grewl:

on Twitter: "4/ If we crudely assume that institutional selling of ~68m shares pushed the August peak of ~$500 back to $400 equilibrium price levels on volumes of about ~80m/day, then the current ~37m/day rally can at most represent 48% of the reverse accumulation rate." / Twitter​

The normally very careful @Fact Checking completely neglects/ignores the fact that Tesla sold 11.14M shares into the Market between Sep 01-04 during their $5B cap raise. (via the Q3 10-Q). That's what drove the SP.

This slip turns his analysis into *Züge* (rhymes with sugar). Guess that's what happens when you stomp off from TMC in a fit of personal pique, and there's nobody back-checking your facts. Twitter is NOT a nutritious source of facts.

Cheers!

And yet, somehow, there's more useful and interesting information in those two twitter threads than can be found here in a week. Guess that's what happens when people spend their time seeing patterns in nothing and conspiracies everywhere. Sad really.

 

[Green Pete]

DIVIDENDS ARE NOT HAPPENING THIS DECADE.

Totally agree. Tesla will not offer dividends between now and January 1st 2021.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Unfortunately or perhaps fortunately, I have a boat load of 12/18 700c. I’m really nervous about those, because it’s basically a large YOLO bet. I sold shares to buy them, so if I don’t sell them, or they finish OTM by even $0.01, I will be screwed out of a lot of TSLA’s future appreciation. Since the MM have a great ability to keep the SP below max pain or whatever price they want on Friday expiration’s, I’m super nervous these will expire worthless at 4:00 pm with SP=699.98. Then after hours and Monday, the SP will explode.

I cannot put in a market orders on options, and I cannot put in trades quickly on my platform. How can I prepare for the last 5-15 min of trading without losing it all? I’ve put in some limit orders at $20, $40, $60, $100, and $200/contract. Too high? Too low? Any advice in advance would be greatly appreciated.

You "will be screwed out of a lot of TSLA’s future appreciation" by yourself. Trying to play sophisticated games when you "cannot put in trades quickly" is putting yourself at an enormous disadvantage. Don't do that.

 

[MXWing]

Unfortunately or perhaps fortunately, I have a boat load of 12/18 700c. I’m really nervous about those, because it’s basically a large YOLO bet. I sold shares to buy them, so if I don’t sell them, or they finish OTM by even $0.01, I will be screwed out of a lot of TSLA’s future appreciation. Since the MM have a great ability to keep the SP below max pain or whatever price they want on Friday expiration’s, I’m super nervous these will expire worthless at 4:00 pm with SP=699.98. Then after hours and Monday, the SP will explode.

I cannot put in a market orders on options, and I cannot put in trades quickly on my platform. How can I prepare for the last 5-15 min of trading without losing it all? I’ve put in some limit orders at $20, $40, $60, $100, and $200/contract. Too high? Too low? Any advice in advance would be greatly appreciated.

No one knows. We know the idea of the INFINITE SQUEEZE is out of play. Daily 4% gains didn't happen.

Personally, shares are safer. BUT if you pull this off, you will be driving a Roadster on your own private island.

Chickens*it shareholder like myself will be driving a Model Y SR in the suburbs due to modest profits from limiting risks.

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting. What events do you see potentially causing the turmoil? Anything besides Covid and Trump's shenanigans?

This subject doesn't lend itself to a simple mechanistic, cause and effect obviousness. Major economic events might be triggered or precipitated by small, somewhat inconsequential things while no one is able to pinpoint a single fundamental reason why things happened as they did (or when they did). Usually in hindsight an economist can string together enough reasons to make it sound almost like it should have been predictable (and indeed, someone may have even predicted it). But the best answer might just be that the time was right.

I will point out that I had a margin loan in February, but lost nothing because my stocks did not drop enough to cause a margin call. I did sell a few (high-basis) TSLA shares on the way down the drop, and bought them back on the way up.

A small amount of leverage doesn't normally cause issues during small, short-duration events. I'm not sure what your point is here.

 

[Criscmt]

Can I ask a favour ? Could you link the exchange or accounts please?

The accounts:
https://twitter.com/truth_tesla
https://twitter.com/garyblack00

 

[Stone_Watcher]

Unfortunately or perhaps fortunately, I have a boat load of 12/18 700c. I’m really nervous about those, because it’s basically a large YOLO bet. I sold shares to buy them, so if I don’t sell them, or they finish OTM by even $0.01, I will be screwed out of a lot of TSLA’s future appreciation. Since the MM have a great ability to keep the SP below max pain or whatever price they want on Friday expiration’s, I’m super nervous these will expire worthless at 4:00 pm with SP=699.98. Then after hours and Monday, the SP will explode.

I cannot put in a market orders on options, and I cannot put in trades quickly on my platform. How can I prepare for the last 5-15 min of trading without losing it all? I’ve put in some limit orders at $20, $40, $60, $100, and $200/contract. Too high? Too low? Any advice in advance would be greatly appreciated.

Roll your options to 12/24

 

[ABCTG]

More slop from the LATimes;

Tesla more pricey? Wrong! Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus is $37,990 vs VW Base Model $40,000



Tesla Model 3 Range is 263 miles vs. VW base model range still To Be Determined

The VW ID 4 available with 250 miles of range is the $44,000 version.

This paragraph is so misleading;

The ID.4, ready for California customers in March, is a compact SUV, the fastest-growing segment in the automobile market right now. Range is 250 miles. The base price is $40,000 (officially $39,995).

(The range quoted, and the price quoted are for two different versions of the ID 4)

Review: The Volkswagen ID.4. Is this the car that makes electrics go mainstream?


*(BTW, most EVs sold in California currently get an instant rebate at point of sale of $1,500)

 

[plug&play]

I sat down this weekend to assess my TSLA investment, and after some pondering, I decided to stay put. Since the stock has been on a tear this year I figured it was time to perform some due diligence and make sure I am making a smart decision for staying invested in TSLA.
My decision came down to one simple reason, will TSLA continue to grow faster than the S&P500/DOW?
In recent history, the S&P500/DOW have been growing on average about 10% a year.
I am very confident TSLA will grow faster then the 10% a year.

My next re-assessment will be when TSLA reaches $2000 or year 2025 (whichever comes first).

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Uh, this is sloppy grewl:

on Twitter: "4/ If we crudely assume that institutional selling of ~68m shares pushed the August peak of ~$500 back to $400 equilibrium price levels on volumes of about ~80m/day, then the current ~37m/day rally can at most represent 48% of the reverse accumulation rate." / Twitter​

The normally very careful @Fact Checking completely neglects/ignores the fact that Tesla sold 11.14M shares into the Market between Sep 01-04 during their $5B cap raise. (via the Q3 10-Q). That's what drove the SP.

This slip turns his analysis into *Züge* (rhymes with sugar). Guess that's what happens when you stomp off from TMC in a fit of personal pique, and there's nobody back-checking your facts. Twitter is NOT a nutritious source of facts.

Cheers!

It's a shame Fact Checking doesn't have a bigger audience for his analysis. He has 5,800 followers on Twitter, but I'm afraid they are mostly low quality followers, as there is little feedback: usually 1-2 reactions and retweets and a few dozen likes. I think he got more views on this thread and definitely more feedback. From a recent tweet I gathered he's still visiting this thread, it's a shame he no longer posts here. We would all give him a warm welcome back.

 

[Speedr117]

No one knows. We know the idea of the INFINITE SQUEEZE is out of play. Daily 4% gains didn't happen.

Personally, shares are safer. BUT if you pull this off, you will be driving a Roadster on your own private island.

Chickens*it shareholder like myself will be driving a Model Y SR in the suburbs due to modest profits from limiting risks.

Not advice!!! But you sound like you have a lot of them. I've seen and used a technique of spreading the risk up and down the price range and time duration. So instead of having say 10 700 calls, have 3 680s, 3 700s, and 4 720s (not linear in price, hence having the most at a higher strike price.).

I do this with time as well, but in this case, I'm not sure what's going to happen at that exact time (after hours on the 18th through before trading on the 21st). If there is a spike at 4pm and after hours on the 18th, and most people are predicting a drop after inclusion, having the options that expire the next week (12/24 due to Christmas) might be a detriment.

Also, if I didn't use the right language to say "Not Advice!!!", please let me know so I can correct it. It's crazy that the world we live in we have to give all these disclaimers for normal folks not to get blasted, and yet if you have a lot of money, it seems you can do no wrong and get out of anything. Oh well, not to get OT!

 

[bhtooefr]

A FYI: Tesla may soon be getting revenue for the Supercharger network from another automaker.

Aptera's website shows a Tesla connector on their prototype: https://www.aptera.us/?pgid=k096lhqx-0e60da80-165d-4d29-bc08-eb703e54bf05

Thread for discussion of the Aptera relaunch over here: Aptera

 

[CanadaEV]

The market is commonly like a game of chicken. It always tries to shake out the weakest hands.
If that is to be the case this time, the spike would happen 21, 22, 23, 24.
The correction would happen progressing from 24.
Who knows when the bounce would happen?
Probably sometime overlong after the earnings call in January.
lol… or something completely different could happen

 

[StealthP3D]

One could think it makes a difference that Tesla Motors of 2008 was a privately held company as opposed to Tesla of 2020 which is public.

Good point.

Musk Tweeted in 2013 that Tesla might issue a dividend in the future. It was aligned with the 'growth is better than payout' philosophy: Twitter

So, 5 years later Musk openly admitted the company might pay a dividend in the distant future. If you take all of Musk's statements as definitive, I guess the take-away would be that he contradicts himself. But I already know that everybody contradicts themselves when every statement is taken literally and out of context. Which is why I said Musk's 2008 statement needed to be taken in context (and that it was not definitive).

Thanks for that link @mongo .

 

[Criscmt]

It's a shame Fact Checking doesn't have a bigger audience for his analysis. He has 5,800 followers on Twitter, but I'm afraid they are mostly low quality followers, as there is little feedback: usually 1-2 reactions and retweets and a few dozen likes. I think he got more views on this thread and definitely more feedback. From a recent tweet I gathered he's still visiting this thread, it's a shame he no longer posts here. We would all give him a warm welcome back.

I would think there's also the dynamic of people (especially retail, and institutions like ARK) accumulating popular stocks when the price goes down significantly.
I know people who felt they lost the TSLA opportunity, but go onboard when the SP was dropping towards $320 after S&P surprise in September. And, ARK also bought during the drop.

 

[StealthP3D]

Twitter is NOT a nutritious source of facts.

Cheers!

I'm glad someone else sees Twitter in a similar light. I can barely make sense of Twitter "conversations" or debates - it's a real mess. This is caused, in large part, by the format and lack of accountability.