Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Except in this case, it seems to be VERY relevant. I think a lot of people envisioned a short squeeze type scenario. Now, if all it takes is an instantaneous event to reconcile all of the buyers and sellers, then the price wouldn't move that much, or if it did, it could be manipulated quickly up or down after the event since all of the buying would have been done and over at that relevant time. Or am I missing something here?

is there a way to know how many excess extra volume of shares purchased since S&P500 inclusion announcement to evaluate if there will be an imbalance with the amount of shares that have been purchased by indexers?

with the worse case scenario of all the shares purchased came from speculators and all of the 43% stock prise increase being in the hands of traders who can’t wait to dump them in the hands of indexers. That would be an approximation of what could happen on the 18th

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sorry, but what $pecial club?

Humblebrag. T$LAnaire

 

[AudubonB]

If Biden extends tax credits for Tesla, would they be retrospective?

100% guaranteed yes, as that’s how humans make decisions.

Whether or not they will be retroactive....well, possibly but one of the fundamentals which the new administration will have to assess is how much political capital they have and where its biggest influence will be.

 

[Etna]

Elon was asked the "what's next?" question directly during the Q&A session at the Axel Springer Awards. The CEO of DHL asked how they can reduce the carbon footprint of their "many" jet cargo planes (32:12).

Fast-fwd to "the answer", (the consequence of what) Elon said is that Civil Airliners with 2,000km range will possible beginning in about 8 years.

Here's how we get there:

• current Li-Ion bty are a little more than 300 wh/kg
• a/c need about 400 wh/kg to get 1,000 km range
• this will become available in about 5 yrs
• this implies about +6%/yr incr. energy density (GED)
  
• prop planes will be 1st to convert, then turboprops, then jets
• climb req'd means range scales non-linearly w. bty improvements
  
• for example, 20% increase in GED gives 100% incr range
• that's 2,000 km rge for a regional jet w. 480 wh/kg
• 6% CAGR bty energy density implies 8 years from now

Although he doesn't continue the thought in this interview, it's quite obvious that Elon is thinking about how his companies can be among those that "pioneer" electric aviation. Telsa and SpaceX joint venture seems a natural fit for this task, with the hard part being building the new A/C manufacturing plant (in Texas, of course!)

Cheers!

Elon's numbers just don't add up by a huge margin. He admits these are "back-of-the-envelope" estimates of his, but he should really have a couple of SpaceX engineers spend some time on this and report back to him with more realistic data.

I am chasing investors to fund electric regional aircraft, and I often have to defend my performance models (validated on flight test data of other aircraft I worked on) against the wild claims of several startups. So I am a bit frustrated to see Elon pile in on that. Not helpful at all.

 

[Khamul]

Elon just retweeted this interview with him, by welt.de. It's in german, but google should be able to help us out.

Edit: Here's link to a google translate

Edit 2: I was too quick. It's paywalled . Well, there's a few paragraphs available, but nothing earth-shattering there.

 

[StealthP3D]

Except in this case, it seems to be VERY relevant. I think a lot of people envisioned a short squeeze type scenario. Now, if all it takes is an instantaneous event to reconcile all of the buyers and sellers, then the price wouldn't move that much, or if it did, it could be manipulated quickly up or down after the event since all of the buying would have been done and over at that relevant time. Or am I missing something here?

But that's not how it works.

Only sellers who opt to join the opening or closing pool at prices within 10% of the market price will be participating. This does nothing to a normal sell or sell/limit order.

Much ado about nothing.

 

[MXWing]

But that's not how it works.

Only sellers who opt to join the opening or closing pool at prices within 10% of the market price will be participating. This does nothing to a normal sell or sell/limit order.

Much ado about nothing.

You are missing the point (and TSLA dividends for a very long time).

No one cares about semantical discussion mechanics of the nasdaq cross vs market sell and limits.

We care about the net effect on price once this is settled.

Clearly If 100 percent of demand is met in the nasdaq cross, we are looking at share prices not going up very much or even decreasing for non participants.

 

[Speedr117]

You are missing the point (and TSLA dividends for a very long time).

No one cares about semantical discussion mechanics of the nasdaq cross vs market sell and limits.

We care about the net effect on price once this is settled.

Clearly If 100 percent of demand is met in the nasdaq cross, we are looking at share prices not going up very much or even decreasing for non participants.

Exactly! What I'm trying to understand is, during normal trading, as more demand for shares is needed, the price increases and new people or limits trigger to sell shares, and it keeps going until it finds equilibrium. This "technical mechanism" seems more like a survey where they find the most shares that are willing to buy and sell, then kinda meet in the middle. But it happens almost at once, therefore there never really is a spike/rising momentum. Am I understanding it correctly @MXWing?

 

[mickificki]

I just got my fidelity IRA, Roth IRA and Individual investment accounts all approved for after hours trading last night. It is only a disclaimer and terms and conditions to sign off on to get the after-hours trading unlocked

Are there any drawbacks to after hours trading, besides the chance I may make an impulsive/hasty trade here and there?

 

[MC3OZ]

View attachment 615072

Full link: http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/content/productsservices/trading/crosses/openclose_faqs.pdf

My belief is that bid/ask spread in question is going to be derived from the Cross orders, and not the market orders. Orders can be submitted for the cross as early as 4:00AM but in practice, probably 3:54PM on 12/18/2020.

I think there is a BIG difference between this and normal orders for buy/sell because you CANNOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF REAL TIME FLUCUATIONS in the AH. What you submit to buy is fixed. What you submit to sell is fixed. The closing "handshake" is done in advance.

We are learning together on this (assuming we are willing to not spend our time discussing DIVIDENDS, APPLE (I'm guilty of this) or writing poetry.

100%, SOME front runners are going to submit their cross sell orders at below the closing ask. If you had a chance to lock in guaranteed profits and from shares possibly on margin, they would be suicidal to not do it.

The exchange trading rules should indicate how they calculate the closing auction price.

Look like LOC orders can overlap the current market as they only trade at close, all close orders are repriced and trace in normal price/time priority sequence.

if there were no LOC ask orders that overlap, buyers can make sure of a price by overlapping regular orders.

Some exchanges might use the last trade price when there is no overlap.

The funds can bid a fairly aggressive price, that price is (as far as I can tell) not revealed to the market, they trade at the action price which is typically lower. Note; The price needs to be within the threshold...

The threshold of 10% is utilized to calculate a price range for the Cross. 10% of the Nasdaq Best Bid and Offer (QBBO) Midpoint (with a minimum of $0.50) is added to the Nasdaq Offer and subtracted from the Nasdaq Bid to establish the threshold price range.

So the threshold is important, it caps the range of activity.

The fund can get all of their buying for the day done at the same price, perhaps that is an attraction.

 

[Runarbt]

A FYI: Tesla may soon be getting revenue for the Supercharger network from another automaker.

Aptera's website shows a Tesla connector on their prototype: https://www.aptera.us/?pgid=k096lhqx-0e60da80-165d-4d29-bc08-eb703e54bf05

Thread for discussion of the Aptera relaunch over here: Aptera

Elon said to Munroe that Tesla wouldnt supply parts to his projects/customers, as these were 3-wheelers, and not safe enough.

But this was parts.. maybe supplying energy is different? I am skeptic though.

 

[Johan]

Are there any drawbacks to after hours trading, besides the chance I may make an impulsive/hasty trade here and there?

Less liquidity so usually a larger buy-sell spread. So never do market orders in pre- or aftermarket (only limit orders whether buying or selling).

 

[hobbes]

Benchmark funds:

1. Severely under-weight now, many with zero weightage, going by Bloomberg
2. Not seemingly accumulating yet, going by volumes
3. Under pressure for window dressing immediately, being end of year/quarter
4. Their size/need being bigger than indexed 120m shares

Doesn't this mean a very high chance that we will see buying pressure even after Dec-21, and before year/quarter ends Dec-31?
Perhaps @FrankSG covered this in his blog post, which I feel foolish to not yet make time to have gone through yet, given the awesome job he does

@Artful Dodger @generalenthu @Right_Said_Fred

Found Rob Maurer´s (Tesla Daily) quantitative analysis on this helpful:

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

The fund can get all of their buying for the day done at the same price, perhaps that is an attraction.

Since the index inclusion should be at the closing value on Dec 18 that would work well for the funds I assume. Getting their shares at exactly that price.

Still haven't seen anyone explain how it's for sure that there will be enough sellers putting in bids that are acceptable.

What if there are 50 million shares wanted and only 10 million selling? Wouldn't that be a disaster for the funds on Dec 21 when the price can then potentially skyrocket and the starting index price is set.

 

[Unpilot]

I rarely disagree with Stealth but...

It is to me, if your net worth is 20+ million, as your reported investing history might suggest. TSLA and your other stocks would have to drop way more than TSLA ever has before you'd suffer a margin call.


No, as mentioned above, you could add the interest to your loan, and let your estate pay it off from your gigantic stock holdings when a jealous husband shoots you at age 100. The interest rate on $2 million from Interactive Brokers is less than 1%. You could live a long time at that rate, especially if your stocks are growing much faster.

That's what I plan to do if/when IB lowers their margin equity requirement for TSLA, hopefully soon because of S&P inclusion or the Goldman upgrade or whatever made E*Trade lower theirs recently. (That was great news, thanks @Prunesquallor.)

For me...I am up over 3 Million on my Tesla investment.....that is far more that I ever imagined....I will probably sell as needed to live "large"....such as meals out a nice vacation now and again..(when covid is over)

But really I do not feel the need to leave a huge amount to my children.
They are young and smart and can swim the river of life well....I think I have prepared them for that.

This obsession to squeeze every penny either tax wise or whatever ....just aint how I roll.

But to each his/her own.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

is there a way to know how many excess extra volume of shares purchased since S&P500 inclusion announcement to evaluate if there will be an imbalance with the amount of shares that have been purchased by indexers?

with the worse case scenario of all the shares purchased came from speculators and all of the 43% stock prise increase being in the hands of traders who can’t wait to dump them in the hands of indexers. That would be an approximation of what could happen on the 18th

There’s no way to know if speculators have already bought all 120 mln shares that index funds are required to buy (plus dozens of millions that shadow funds likely will have to buy), but the trading volumes may provide a clue.

During the 13 trading days since the S&P announcement a total of 640 mln shares traded hands. If we assume that most of that is high-speed algo trading (generally assumed to be 80% of all trading volume, as per source CNBC and source SA) and another 10% is day trading and option hedging, that leaves only 10% for accumulation, so about 60 mln shares, half of what is needed by index funds. More shares will be needed by the shadow funds and by short sellers forced to cover.

The volume of 640 mln shares resulted in a 200 point rise of the SP. That rise is indicative of the price pressure that accompanies accumulation. SP hardly moved last week, which probably means that the accumulators took a pause after it became clear there would be just one inclusion event instead of two. So most accumulation probably took place during the first 8 trading days, which saw a total volume of 400 mln shares. If 120 mln of those had been accumulation, it would have meant 30% of all daily volume. That is very unlikely and would probably have resulted in an even steeper rise.

If these assumptions are correct I’m expecting a continuation of the melt up we saw during the first 8 trading days.

 

[euro2012]

You are missing the point (and TSLA dividends for a very long time).

No one cares about semantical discussion mechanics of the nasdaq cross vs market sell and limits.

We care about the net effect on price once this is settled.

Clearly If 100 percent of demand is met in the nasdaq cross, we are looking at share prices not going up very much or even decreasing for non participants.

Obviously for long term holding of shares, this is inconsequential. When trying to forecast what may happen during the inclusion event, when it comes to getting out of call positions, I believe it becomes very relevant to understand what may or may not happen. We are clearly little fish compared to the big funds, so to understand what might be in their playbook is helpful. Knowledge=power.

 

[lafrisbee]

Agreed. But Knightshade suggested “never”.

Not happening ever, disagree, because it would require infinite growth on a finite planet.

only ONE planet?

 

[Christine69420]

A FYI: Tesla may soon be getting revenue for the Supercharger network from another automaker.

Aptera's website shows a Tesla connector on their prototype: https://www.aptera.us/?pgid=k096lhqx-0e60da80-165d-4d29-bc08-eb703e54bf05

Thread for discussion of the Aptera relaunch over here: Aptera

Is this plug copyrighted in any way? In Europe my TMX use a generic type 2 plug which many car brands use.

 

[jw934]

Isn't the Closing Cross considered part of the regular trading session (and thus the volume would naturally be reflected there)?

Appears not to be included in the regular trading session volume. Closing Cross volume of approx 7,379,896 shares on Friday at exactly 4PM (as per CNBC.COM minute chart) does not seem to be included in the 3:59PM volume, which only showed 616,051 shares traded.

Source of chart below: BARCHART.COM