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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If you ever need a silent partner. My only condition is that we name it Tesla Joint Service Centre.

It’s essentially “Elon Musk Center for folks w can’t bend their knees good and want to bend other joints well too.”

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Grünheide: Connection for Tesla: More trains and a new bus line

Original German: Anbindung für Tesla: Mehr Züge und eine neue Buslinie

Google Translate:
Tesla is still building its electric car factory, but as early as December 13, its transport links will be significantly improved with the rail timetable change in a first step. Then the trains of the Regional Express RE1 stop twice an hour at the Fangschleuse station in each direction except in the very early morning and late evening. So far, the station, next to which there is nothing but a Greek restaurant, a residential building, a building yard, a carpenter's workshop and two parking spaces, runs every hour. A 20-minute cycle is to be set up in 2022.

With the timetable change, the Oder-Spree bus company will also put a new line 419 into operation, which will connect the stop, which is primarily used by residents of Freienbrink and Grünheide, with the Tesla area and the Freienbrink freight center (GVZ). The bus should reach the Tesla plant in less than five minutes.

The bus timetables, which like the future RE1 can already be viewed in the app and the online presence of the Verkehrsverbund Berlin-Brandenburg (VBB), will initially be “geared towards the needs of the GVZ”, as the VBB announced.

Tesla will use its own buses
When the Tesla factory starts operations, the company plans to set up shuttle buses to the Fangschleuse and Erkner stations at the beginning and end of the shift. It is still being checked whether Tesla buses will stop at Königs Wusterhausen and Strausberg. The RE1, east of Berlin in pre-Corona times used by 15,000 people every day, connects Magdeburg via Brandenburg / Havel and Berlin with Frankfurt (Oder), Cottbus and Eisenhüttenstadt, so it can bring employees from the cities to work at Tesla.

Arne Christiani, non-party mayor of Grünheide, can report on further traffic planning. On December 15th, for example, the municipal council will decide on a development plan that will allow the construction of a road bridge over the railway line.

The bridge is to be built about a hundred meters east of the gated level crossing on Landesstraße 23 at the Fangschleuse stop, and the road will be pivoted accordingly. Because, says Christiani: "When the factory is in full operation, freight trains bring material and fetch finished vehicles, the barriers no longer open."

Breakpoint should be moved
In the medium term, it is planned to relocate the stop around 1.5 kilometers to the west. Christiani: "If 40,000 people work at Tesla in the final stage and 10,000 of them come by train as expected, it is impossible to take them all by bus from the current train station to the factory." From the new station, however, they could work walk away.

Finally, a new state road is planned that will lead on the south side of the railway line from the current Fangschleuse stop to the future Autobahn connection Freienbrink-Nord.

The construction of the Tesla plant can continue in the meantime, although there is not yet a general permit: The State Environment Agency has now approved the installation of a paint shop, subject to the condition of economical water and solvent consumption. Already on Monday it was approved that Tesla may clear another 83 hectares of forest. So far, 92 hectares of pine forest have fallen.
One is left to wonder if the bus line number 420 is available? Maybe Tesla could mark their shuttle so?
 
Have you a reference to when Elon said that? It just doesn’t sound like his phrasing. He would say something like “not for the foreseeable future”.



First time I'm aware of him mentioning it, his exact words were:

(3:29 into the video)

Elon Musk said:
the company doesn't issue any dividends nor will it ever

Seems pretty clear and definitive to me.

Ever penny of profit goes back to expanding the company and more importantly forwarding the mission, making their products cheaper and more accessible.



As pointed out- same deal with Apple when Jobs was running it (well, the no dividends part, not the making products always cheaper part :)).... So it's certainly possible that promise won't survive after Elon is replaced some day- but I've no reason to believe he's going to go back on it while he's running things.
 
Does this mean, it's very likely that we will see a sharp rise/fall a few minutes prior to close?
Will the price movement continue into after hours? That is, keep moving up in after-hours if there aren't enough shares, and down if there are excess?

This seems a little crazy - we are talking how many millions of shares that are needed to be bought? Simply placing a market on close order seems impossible to fill with these. Where are all these shares going to come from in the few minutes at market close?

Reasonable people, even Tesla bulls can disagree on what will happen. Of course, this is without precedent.

Fact checking and Gary had a back and forth on Twitter and I am mostly in Fact's camp.

Good thing I took the day off.
 
Can confirm something similar with TD. Someone higher up called me when I did a large TSLA transfer. Next time I should use it to discuss some of the rates.

I didn't think my position is large enough at any one brokerage though. I was under the impression that you are not on their radar at all until you reach around 100mil+

Having worked with a number of “wealth managers” through my profession, most banks set their high net worth limits to $1M in net assets. So, you start to get attention with an account that size from most. Ultra HNW is defined by most as $10M in net assets. At that point every bank has some kind of credit solution and managed payout solution that they are willing to offer you.
 
Seems pretty clear and definitive to me.

Ever penny of profit goes back to expanding the company and more importantly forwarding the mission, making their products cheaper and more accessible.

I'm not invested in TSLA for the potential future dividends. That said, I don't see anything "definitive" about Elon's statement other than as it was meant in context. Now you are certainly free to disagree with that, but it doesn't make the statement absolute or definitive, considering the context that it was said in.

Specifically, it was an off-the-cuff remark made before Tesla had delivered even 100 original Roadsters and was soliciting new purchasers of what was considered a very expensive car. He was making clear that the people supporting the company then (by buying an expensive Roadster) would be funding the development of a mass market car, not funneling money to TSLA investors and the largest shareholder of them all, himself.

One thing I've learned in my time here on planet earth is that humans don't always say exactly what they mean in an absolute fashion because language is very contextual.

Now I'm not going to get into one of your lengthy and complicated "tit for tat" debates about the length of a gnat's eyelash or whether Elon's comment was meant to be definitive and comprehensive over the life of the company - it's sufficient to agree to disagree.
 
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Reasonable people, even Tesla bulls can disagree on what will happen. Of course, this is without precedent.

Fact checking and Gary had a back and forth on Twitter and I am mostly in Fact's camp.

Good thing I took the day off.

While nobody knows what will happen in exact terms it is important to point out that Fact has been spot on with his analysis so far even going back to August/September when he/she laid out the different factors.

Gary OTOH said back on 11/17 that the upside from S&P inclusion through 12/21 is 17% from the 420 levels. We all know how that worked out.

The big IF might be any secondary offering that Tesla might do to take advantage of the stock price assuming they already have a plan for the 5 or 10 Billion(4-7 million shares by my estimates). It will not really help S&P with liquidity but could cause more volatility. If you are playing the short term S&P inclusion game it is important to keep this potential dynamic in mind.

Personally I hope they don’t do the secondary offering but obviously trust the management to do the right thing.
 
Rolling over my 401 and have the option to put it in an IRA account which I can mange. I know better but 100k of TSLA is tempting.
Exactly what I did about 4 yrs ago. Pick a % for TSLA, and rebalance when you feel its right. Your investment will grow with your cash. Conservative for this crowd, but live longer with more hair in the end.
 
I'm not invested in TSLA for the potential future dividends.

Same here. Especially since Elon said they'd never offer any.


That said, I don't see anything "definitive" about Elon's statement

Is there some alternative definition of "never" with which I'm unfamiliar?

He didn't say "Won't offer them for a few years" or "won't offer them till we have an affordable mass market car"

He said Tesla will never offer them.


Specifically, it was an off-the-cuff remark made before Tesla had delivered even 100 original Roadsters and was soliciting new purchasers of what was considered a very expensive car. He was making clear that the people supporting the company now by buying an expensive Roadster would be funding the development of a mass market car, not funneling money to TSLA investors and the largest shareholder of them all, himself.

Seemed to me it wasn't off the cuff at all- Instead he was repeating the fundamental mission of Tesla, which has never changed.

It'll never make sense for the mission to hand cash back to shareholders instead of using it to make sustainable energy more affordable and accessible in furtherance of that mission.

Even in our hypothetical 2030 where Tesla has a 20-25% market share of the entire new car market (based on their own recent targets for production by then) it'll still always sense to rather than send X dollars to each shareholder, use X dollars to reduce the price of their cars, or scale production of said cars (or batteries, or solar, or whatever else furthers the mission toward sustainable energy).


Especially if we keep seeing garbage like VW being divided on this whole EV thing, or most other companies continually being "5 years away" from converting to EVs.
 
Exactly what I did about 4 yrs ago. Pick a % for TSLA, and rebalance when you feel its right. Your investment will grow with your cash. Conservative for this crowd, but live longer with more hair in the end.
I’ve got enough hair in the end already, thank you very much.

On edit: emojis show at least some think not yet enough hair. Can’t please ‘em all.
 
First time I'm aware of him mentioning it, his exact words were:

(3:29 into the video)



Seems pretty clear and definitive to me.

Ever penny of profit goes back to expanding the company and more importantly forwarding the mission, making their products cheaper and more accessible.



As pointed out- same deal with Apple when Jobs was running it (well, the no dividends part, not the making products always cheaper part :)).... So it's certainly possible that promise won't survive after Elon is replaced some day- but I've no reason to believe he's going to go back on it while he's running things.

Thanks for the link.
You got me! He did say that. Hm.