Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oldTAVguy]

What is their "Company of the Year?"

Etsy?

Nikola?

 

[mongo]

Wait, isnt this contradicting - being weighted by float and market price means intrinsically means share count is a function of those two.
For example the change in AAPL holding by SPY on how the amount of shares it is holding keeps changing when the share price changes, which in turn changes the weighting in S&P500, which in turn means number of shares get adjusted as well.

View attachment 615344

Float is directly proportional to market price (via share count), they they move together.
AAPL % depends on the current value of AAPL and the current value of the entire index. Shares of AAPL depends on the total dollars put into SPY.
For example, Dec 7 shows AAPL at a higher weighting with less shares than Nov 30th.

I think some confusion comes from the term weighting. The weighting values are used as presented for new investments / payouts, but the numbers themselves are dynamic and derived from the float market caps (as opposed to externally independently generated)

 

[Robocop]

GM has wanted to get rid of a good many poorly performing dealerships for decades, I recall consulting with them on on such effort for a new model lineup back a couple decades ago. That has always been fraught for them and for several OEMs, just about like Toyota trying to buy out independent US distributors after they were already billionaires. So, now that BEV adoption is a sure thing it's easier to bribe the bottom end into giving up before they try to cope with something they don't want to hear, but know si inevitable. Actually that is pretty smart for GM.

GM paying dealers to straight up close, to advance their EV sales, is the thing has moved me from "0% chance of not going bankrupt" to "hey, 1% chance of not going bankrupt!". Like they have so so much to do still, but it is a signal that some part of their team sees some of the writing on the wall. And surely they are secretly envious of Tesla's direct-to-consumer approach?

 

[SOULPEDL]

GM has wanted to get rid of a good many poorly performing dealerships for decades, I recall consulting with them on on such effort for a new model lineup back a couple decades ago. That has always been fraught for them and for several OEMs, just about like Toyota trying to buy out independent US distributors after they were already billionaires. So, now that BEV adoption is a sure thing it's easier to bribe the bottom end into giving up before they try to cope with something they don't want to hear, but know si inevitable. Actually that is pretty smart for GM.

At first I thought it was an opt out for that line of GM, but if that's all they sell, then I'm starting to catch on. So ~17% of Cadi dealerships are retiring from new car sales? They must see the writing on the wall to give up the brand completely AND likely think the cadi looks like a grill on wheels and has no chance of selling, at least in some neighborhoods.

So... when Grandpa goes to upgrade his cadi and the place is closed, what will he buy instead? A Hummer?

 

[colettimj]

No one has a crystal ball or really knows what the market is thinking or knows but this was written in Jan 2020 and probably needs to be revised but gives a good idea of how Tesla could be valued (Pre-split prices, so divide everything by 5 to compare to today's prices):
Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

The 'funny' thing is that the graphic above doesn't (and most people) only see Tesla as a 'Car company' and doesn't account for the other parts such as battery, solar, tequila, and revenue streams such as Car Insurance, Energy Autobidder, premium connectivity, and supercharging.

Personally I see the EV Semi and Energy storage markets extremely undervalued. Both will require an extreme amount of batteries and I feel that Tesla is the only company in the world poised to pull it off. Throw in the 'X-factor of Tesla' of other 'start ups' they could incorporate in the next 5-10 years such as in-car App store, HVAC, Air Planes, and they are easily a multi-trillion dollar company.

Cathie Wood was featured on Market Rebellion on Oct 13. The full video appears to be inaccessible now (linked in this Twitter post), but in it she said TSLA would experience about 45% compound annual growth rate through 2025 which (by my calculation using the share price on that day) puts her end of 2025 target price at around $2,800. ARK's 2024 "Bull" prediction from Jan 2020 is $3,000.

Hopefully we will get an updated price model from ARK in the new year.

 

[Mo City]

It seemed like kind of a stretch at the time this came out but we're already fast approaching the High Functioning EV Company target.

I said early in the year their projection for non-robotaxis was far too low. Tesla will carpet bomb the auto and energy industries without robitaxis and become a $1T company well before 2024. Tesla does not need robotaxis to be the most successful company on Earth.

That being true, full autonomy and robotaxis would take the company into a completely different dimension. Hard to even imagine that kind of dominance.

 

[jeewee3000]

You should also be able to download your current holdings from your broker's website. Export as .xls and/or PDF.

Can't you? I can. (Save to .xls or .csv) Same option with transaction lists.

 

[FS_FRA]

Cathie Wood was featured on Market Rebellion on Oct 13. The full video appears to be inaccessible now (linked in this Twitter post), but in it she said TSLA would experience about 45% compound annual growth rate through 2025 which (by my calculation using the share price on that day) puts her end of 2025 target price at around $2,800. ARK's 2024 "Bull" prediction from Jan 2020 is $3,000.

Hopefully we will get an updated price model from ARK in the new year.

I really hope so too, her last Podcast finished quite cryptically: "....not sure if we'll talk again....unless something really dramatic happens..."

Hopefully, ARK and Cathie will still be around in 2021, and that Resolute doesn't mess it up in exercising their options.

 

[Nocturnal]

At first I thought it was an opt out for that line of GM, but if that's all they sell, then I'm starting to catch on. So ~17% of Cadi dealerships are retiring from new car sales? They must see the writing on the wall to give up the brand completely AND likely think the cadi looks like a grill on wheels and has no chance of selling, at least in some neighborhoods.

So... when Grandpa goes to upgrade his cadi and the place is closed, what will he buy instead? A Hummer?

Precisely. On the flip side of that, when somebody wants a cool new EV to show off at the office are they going to buy a Cadillac like their Grandpa owns? Not a chance. I believe that Legacy automakers are sticking with their existing brands because of Dealers, rather than any brand value or loyalty.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Looks like our new resistance is $630....is lunchtime over yet so we can establish a new high?

 

[FS_FRA]

Lunch break over? Heading for a new ATH

Edit: @BlackS beat me to it

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Another move higher on only average( actually slightly below average) volume.

The low volume and stability make it seem incredibly likely there's still a lot to this rally left.

 

[Etna]

I want to see 669.50, just because 1000% in a year would be cool.

Has happened before, August 31 of this year was at 1004%.

 

[X Fan]

I really hope so too, her last Podcast finished quite cryptically: "....not sure if we'll talk again....unless something really dramatic happens..."

Hopefully, ARK and Cathie will still be around in 2021, and that Resolute doesn't mess it up in exercising their options.

The issue is a "hostile" takeover by Resolute.

Cathie Wood Might Lose Control of ARK, the Company She Founded

These are the folks: Resolute Investment Managers, Inc.

 

[Cherry Wine]

As always, there are those that think Tesla is overvalued and cannot fathom the recent price appreciation. As a Tesla Bull, I'm trying to better understand why the recent price appreciation has been so spectacular. I realize that the S and P 500 announcement has a lot to do with it, but if that were the main factor I would think the price will eventually fall or taper out about this level based on fundamentals. BUT, do you guys think the FSD beta release is also a significant factor? Are market participants now pricing in that Tesla will solve autonomy in the next 1-2 years? Because to me, that means the stock could still rise much further and be sustained. The FSD videos on Youtube are pretty impressive, but is it being perceived as a high probability outcome? Is it already Game, Set, Match like Elon has said and is thIs a sign that large market players have done the research and agree with him?

If we agree that Tesla will solve autonomy in the next year or two, isn't it a trillion dollar company?

If Tesla solves autonomy, a $1T valuation is a low floor, imho.

Cathie Wood was featured on Market Rebellion on Oct 13. The full video appears to be inaccessible now (linked in this Twitter post), but in it she said TSLA would experience about 45% compound annual growth rate through 2025 which (by my calculation using the share price on that day) puts her end of 2025 target price at around $2,800. ARK's 2024 "Bull" prediction from Jan 2020 is $3,000.

Hopefully we will get an updated price model from ARK in the new year.

For clarity's sake, that first number is post-split, and the second is pre-split, correct?

 

[FS_FRA]

The issue is a "hostile" takeover by Resolute.

Cathie Wood Might Lose Control of ARK, the Company She Founded

These are the folks: Resolute Investment Managers, Inc.

Yes, I know. That is what I was inferring. Resolute to exercise their options to take over ARK.

 

[phantasms]

Hell of a ceiling at 630.00

 

[viridi]

Huge sell orders came in at $630 (at least twice). Will be interesting to see if TSLA can get the necessary volume to break through that cap.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hey, @Unpilot you still selling at $3,999?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If Tesla solves autonomy, a $1T valuation is a low floor, imho.



For clarity's sake, that first number is post-split, and the second is pre-split, correct?

If autonomy is solved, I'd say 1 trillion market value just for autonomy as a base. I really can't see anyway the base valuation is lower than that given the immediate effects on earnings and the huge amount of long term potential for autonomy in other spaces besides Robotaxi.

So that's like a base case entire Tesla valuation of 1.8 trillion to me. 1 trillion for Autonomy, 800 billion for Auto/Energy......with lots of room to go higher