Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[HG Wells]

I don't understand why anybody would sell shares because they have to do an RMD from an IRA. Makes sense if you need the money. But otherwise? What's the deal?

Because you are taxed at 50% if you leave it in.

You could just take the shares out and put them in a regular account

 

[jhm]

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That’s a whole lotta pain...

Short pain, long gain.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well...2021 is off to a roaring start....

 

[2daMoon]

And that is false - people sabotage their goals all the time for reasons that may even be unknowable or, at the very least, delve pretty far into human psychology.

Fortunately, when it comes to investing, our goal is pretty well defined - to grow our account balances. It can be measured in dollars.

Everyone makes mistakes - it is literally impossible not to. The goal should be to learn enough about the subject to avoid as many of those mistakes in the future as possible. But here's the thing: No one makes enough trades to learn effectively ONLY from their mistakes. You can learn from other's mistakes (and it costs a lot less).

Nobody purposefully sabotages themselves, except perhaps, folks like Masochists. Who actually get what they wanted even if it results in harm, they chose it because it was what they wanted.

What did the Masochist say to the Sadist?
Beat me.

What did the Sadist say to the Masochist?
No
​

If a person "sabotages their goals" as stated, then, their goal was actually to fail, and they still got what they desired. That isn't sabotage, that is purpose.
If, as you say, it may be unknowable, that is the point I was making. They didn't know, so did the best they could with what they did know.

Such examples in no way invalidate what I wrote.

I agree completely with the rest of what you wrote. We certainly can and do learn from other's mistakes.

Nobody intentionally makes a mistake, else, it couldn't be a mistake if it were intentional, could it?

Understanding this has helped me tremendously in my own choices regarding what to do with my chairs, as well as groking what others do with theirs.

 

[woodisgood]

Well...2021 is off to a roaring start....

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Just another example of how they don’t get it.

Repurposing an ICE factory to produce Teslas at this stage makes absolutely no sense, a fact obvious to anyone who understands Tesla at even a rudimentary level.

They’re more inclined to purchase an existing auto company to simply put it out of its misery rather than use its factories.

 

[EVortex]

Just another example of how they don’t get it.

Repurposing an ICE factory to produce Teslas at this stage makes absolutely no sense, a fact obvious to anyone who understands Tesla at even a rudimentary level.

They’re more inclined to purchase an existing auto company to simply put it out of its misery rather than use its factories.

Too much liability. Better to stay far away from ICE even if just contemplating buying to shut it down.

 

[Words of HABIT]

interestingly, ARK did not shave any of its large TSLA holdings today, despite the macro-market being well down and TSLA well up to a record closing high.

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ARK does not a TSLA make.

 

[Rockster]

I don't understand why anybody would sell shares because they have to do an RMD from an IRA. Makes sense if you need the money. But otherwise? What's the deal?

“RMD” stands for Required Minimum Distribution. The IRS requires IRA owners to withdraw funds every year, the amount depending upon a variety of factors, including the IRA type, date of acquisition (if inherited), owner’s age, etc. Failure to take the RMD results in a penalty equal to 50% of what the not taken RMD was to have been.

 

[woodisgood]

Too much liability. Better to stay far away from ICE even if just contemplating buying to shut it down.

See what the lawyers have done? Even mercy is broken now.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Well...2021 is off to a roaring start....

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"A" major auto company?

At this rate, it could be ALL of them.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If there is a S/X refresh incoming, I would have to think it'll be announced sometime before Q4 earnings. Though I guess they could hold it for earnings......but considering the S/X production lines are going to be restarted next Monday, it would seem like a long gap between restarting production and Q4 earnings (2 and a half weeks essentially).

 

[AudubonB]

Cost basis on transferred shares are retained, at least on a ROTH conversion. Assuming it would be the same to a taxable acct (I have not looked Into it however.

Also, LT gains are not in play given this is an IRA (assuming you mean LT gains on the withdrawn IRA shares.) The shares value is treated as regular income.

This however is from my pouring through the IRA guidelines. I am not an expert, nor have I consulted a tax professional.

EDIT: What @mongo said is a better approach than moving to a taxable account.

No no no - there is some confusion, but I see why. Of course I was referring to the hoped-for LT appreciation of the shares once they sat in the taxable account. That advice, however, is appropriate in the case of @1101011, with regards to his TIMING, as he wrote the IRA is entirely in TSLA shares (that's not the case with my IRA. In addition to XXX,000,000 shares of TSLA, I also hold an inexcusable $1,470.85 in cash. I cannot figure how that slip-up happened - bad bad bad).

This is the single-name variation on the standard procedure of transferring over whatever laggards or recently beaten-up/beaten-down names that might be in a tax-free account. The extent you believe that name is likely to rebound determines the appropriateness to be the one to transfer: down the road it will incur a lower tax rate than a name that hasn't suffered a fall. This practice argues for proceeding with the transfer now. And thus my important Deus ex machina caveat: we still don't know if the mandatory transfer will once again be waived or if it will be reinstituted.

edited to add appropriate digit....

 

[Mo City]

Ray4Tesla says Giga Shanghai is estimating 523K (278K M3, 245K MY) for 2021. Includes 100K Model 3s for Europe.

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1346246398165962752

If this is realistic and 420K-450K is added for Fremont, 1M is clearly in play. Berlin and Austin would not need to contribute much.

 

[elasalle]

Ray4Tesla says Giga Shanghai is estimating 523K (278K M3, 245K MY) for 2021. Includes 100K Model 3s for Europe.

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1346246398165962752

If this is realistic and 420K-450K is added for Fremont, 1M is clearly in play. Berlin and Austin would not need to contribute much.

750-800K sandbag # if EM doesn’t want to be sleeping across factory floors in 3 continents

 

[LN1_Casey]

If there is a S/X refresh incoming, I would have to think it'll be announced sometime before Q4 earnings. Though I guess they could hold it for earnings......but considering the S/X production lines are going to be restarted next Monday, it would seem like a long gap between restarting production and Q4 earnings (2 and a half weeks essentially).

I honestly don't expect a refreshed Model S/X before the Plaid rolls out. The extra week shut down is not nearly enough time to retool the lines for an refresh update. My guess is they just needed maintenance for the lines and/or swapped out a robot or two.

 

[MP3Mike]

that's not the case with my IRA. In addition to XX,000,000 shares of TSLA

You have at least $7.3 Billion in your IRA?

Those RMDs are going to hurt, unless it is a Roth IRA... (I tried a couple RMD calculators, and they all barfed. One wouldn't go past $50M, while the investor.gov calculator stopped at $999,999,999. Which if you were 71 shows a $37,735,849.02 RMD. )

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Ray4Tesla says Giga Shanghai is estimating 523K (278K M3, 245K MY) for 2021. Includes 100K Model 3s for Europe.

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1346246398165962752

If this is realistic and 420K-450K is added for Fremont, 1M is clearly in play. Berlin and Austin would not need to contribute much.

What so many outside the Tesla sphere doesn't seem to get is that as long as the Berlin and Austin factories don't run into any construction problems which seems very unlikely after the seemingly flawless Shanghai factory, then at least 50% growth is more or less guaranteed for the next three years. Just those factories alone will get us way past 1.7 million in 2023.

Unless you believe the demand will disappear there's not much that can stop Tesla for the next couple of years.

I feel the share price is cheaper today than when I bought in for around $50 ($250) average. The risk today is so much lower.

Can you imagine what the forward looking share price will be in three years after executing 50% growth until then?

Sigh, I wish I had more money to invest.

 

[jerry33]

If a person "sabotages their goals" as stated, then, their goal was actually to fail, and they still got what they desired. That isn't sabotage, that is purpose.
If, as you say, it may be unknowable, that is the point I was making. They didn't know, so did the best they could with what they did know.

Such examples in no way invalidate what I wrote.

I agree completely with the rest of what you wrote. We certainly can and do learn from other's mistakes.

Nobody intentionally makes a mistake, else, it couldn't be a mistake if it were intentional, could it?

Understanding this has helped me tremendously in my own choices regarding what to do with my chairs, as well as groking what others do with theirs.

You make goals, estimate the risks, and make a plan. The hard part is sticking to the plan.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

You have at least $7.3 Billion in your IRA?

We should really ignore bragging like that. To think that's why we were told to follow

 

[LN1_Casey]

You have at least $7.3 Billion in your IRA?

OVERLORD MUSK?! Is that you?!