Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[generalenthu]

XX,000,000 shares of TSLA

Wow, you have billions or potentially 10s of billions in an IRA?

 

[Unpilot]

Anybody know if they can put a solar roof on this? We’re gonna need a new roof in the next few years. But we’re holding out (I’m patching leaks) for a solar glass roof.
View attachment 624173 View attachment 624172

I don't know...but that is a kick ass looking house.

 

[EVortex]

You make goals, estimate the risks, and make a plan. The hard part is sticking to the plan.

Executing strategy is usually more difficult than crafting strategy.

 

[WattsHappening]

What so many outside the Tesla sphere doesn't seem to get is that as long as the Berlin and Austin factories don't run into any construction problems which seems very unlikely after the seemingly flawless Shanghai factory, then at least 50% growth is more or less guaranteed for the next three years. Just those factories alone will get us way past 1.7 million in 2023.

Unless you believe the demand will disappear there's not much that can stop Tesla for the next couple of years.

I feel the share price is cheaper today than when I bought in for around $50 ($250) average. The risk today is so much lower.

Can you imagine what the forward looking share price will be in three years after executing 50% growth until then?

Sigh, I wish I had more money to invest.

You have succinctly explained my exact thoughts. At this point, I believe the investment thesis is even better today than it was before the massive run of the last 1.5 years. Sure, the returns are likely to be smaller than in 2020. But we are still talking about multiples over the next 5-10 years with much decreased risks.

Decades of investment advice has convinced me to diversify, spread out my risk, and earn decent, plodding returns. But I'm more and more convinced that the best investment strategy is to buy as much TSLA as possible and HODL.

I just wish I had access to my 401K funds (I checked and they don't allow transfer to a Rollover IRA until after termination). I'm starting to consider quitting and retiring early just so I can access the account as I think I can earn more by investing these funds into TSLA than I can by continuing to work and earn a good salary. Crazy.

 

[StealthP3D]

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That’s a whole lotta pain...

They say, "pain builds character" and I can't think of a more needy group.

 

[Nocturnal]

Just another example of how they don’t get it.

Repurposing an ICE factory to produce Teslas at this stage makes absolutely no sense, a fact obvious to anyone who understands Tesla at even a rudimentary level.

They’re more inclined to purchase an existing auto company to simply put it out of its misery rather than use its factories.

The solution now seems obvious. Tesla should buy out their competitors and then just shut them down. Boom. Only Teslas exist. 100% market share and stock does another 10x.

You

I just wish I had access to my 401K funds (I checked and they don't allow transfer to a Rollover IRA until after termination). I'm starting to consider quitting and retiring early just so I can access the account as I think I can earn more by investing these funds into TSLA than I can by continuing to work and earn a good salary. Crazy.

I’ve had the same thought. Hate seeing my 401k money pulling in 10% while my IRA is up over 1000%.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

I’d like to congratulate everyone that made a Douglas Adams, Robert Heinlein, Monty Python, Mel Brooks, or similar reference today that my decidedly-uncool 80s self would have thought was super cool.

There were quite a few today — a promising start to the year, and I approve.

 

[Unpilot]

No no no - there is some confusion, but I see why. Of course I was referring to the hoped-for LT appreciation of the shares once they sat in the taxable account. That advice, however, is appropriate in the case of @1001011, with regards to his TIMING, as he wrote the IRA is entirely in TSLA shares (that's not the case with my IRA. In addition to XX,000,000 shares of TSLA, I also hold an inexcusable $1,470.85 in cash. I cannot figure how that slip-up happened - bad bad bad).

This is the single-name variation on the standard procedure of transferring over whatever laggards or recently beaten-up/beaten-down names that might be in a tax-free account. The extent you believe that name is likely to rebound determines the appropriateness to be the one to transfer: down the road it will incur a lower tax rate than a name that hasn't suffered a fall. This practice argues for proceeding with the transfer now. And thus my important Deus ex machina caveat: we still don't know if the mandatory transfer will once again be waived or if it will be reinstituted.

Color me lost
I cant scratch my head any harder over this one.

 

[StealthP3D]

Too much liability. Better to stay far away from ICE even if just contemplating buying to shut it down.

A major auto company, eh?

I'm guessing Tesla is going after Hot Wheels! I think it makes a lot of sense with the potential synergies - they can write it off as an advertising expense.

 

[Unpilot]

Nice little bump up to close the after hours sesion.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Remember presplit when $19 up the last few minutes would have made this place go crazy

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Its hard to talk to people outside of this forum and have them understand the gravity of Tesla and their 100% EV business (only 1 facet of a huge number of startups btw) but even if you just look at the 1 small piece of the company you can see why they are set to succeed and why all other ICE companies will fall. Just look at a recent article, where VW doesn't even push EV salves and put yourself into the shoes of a ICE service/repair center (where car companies traditionally make most of their money)

Can you imagine having to support both ICE and EV vehicles in your service department? You will have to have to completely separate set of techs or cross train a tech in 2 completely different sets of technology. Gas/Transmission/Exhaust tech vs EV motor and high voltage. Just think of the dynamics that will bring into your biggest source of revenue. Gonna have some old time guys with their huge MAC tools chest full of tools and some wiz kids with their laptops and Milwaukee Packout boxes. 1 set of guys all greasy while the other is just reviewing some logs on a laptop. In 5 years when only EVs are sold ICE service departments will still need to cling on to every service center repair/maintenance ticket that comes in the door, do they charge their typical 'Stealership' prices or do they undercut their traditional rates just to keep you coming back and not swapping over to a EV? How long do they support the dying ICE cars and at what cost?

Tesla has none of these strings attached and is setup for a future of dominance. There are all these logistics for an ICE company to attempt to transition to the future but the sludge of their past will bring them into the tar pits much like the other dinosaurs before them.

 

[uujjj2]

Mark B. Spiegel wrote that 1/2 million deliveries in 2020 would be absurd: Stock Market Insights | Seeking Alpha

Tesla (profitably! after subsidies expired!) delivers 1/2 million cars in 2020: Tesla Q4 2020 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations

Let's see if Mark has any comment!

 

[Unpilot]

Let's see if Mark has any comment!

Let's not.

 

[Todd Burch]

750-800K sandbag # if EM doesn’t want to be sleeping across factory floors in 3 continents

I think he might be into that. Sleeping on a single factory floor in one continent is so 2018. (And so boringly monogamous).

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Doing nothing is very much making a decision.

True. Unless you’re this guy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Mon, Jan 04, 2021: (Full Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Kicks-off 2021 with 4 New ATHs"

Traded: $35,571,257,278.59 ($35.57B)
Volume: 48,647,924
VWAP: $731.20

Close: $729.77 / VWAP: 99.80%
TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP
TSLA MaxPain (7:00 A.M.): $665.00 (+$15 from Thu)

TSLA S&P 500 Weight: 1.690187% (Dec 31)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / FB $691.750B / 766.019B = 90.30%
Note: Yahoo Finance yet to update TSLA Mkt Cap re shares issued Dec 11th (SEC Filing)
​

CEO Comp. Status: (est'd Mkt Cap including Dec 11th shares)

TSLA 30-day Closing Avg Market Cap: $624.67B
TSLA 6-mth Closing Avg Market Cap: $414.40B

Mkt Cap req'd for 7th tranche ($400B) likely achieved Tue, Dec 29, 2020
Nota Bene: Operational milestones are req'd for this tranche.
​

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 53.2% (53rd Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short / Total Volume = 60.4% (56th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt ratio was 0.62% of Short Volume (47th Percentile Rank Exempt)​

QOTD: @Highway2Heel "Focus on Production, because demand was-not, is-not, NEVER-will-be an issue"

Comment: "TSLA stalking FB mkt cap: begin 24 day countdown"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Bet TSLA]

You are reading things into what I said that I didn't even say.

I never said that keeping your shares is not making a decision.
I never said sitting on your shares is always the best decision.

Well, you sure implied it. You said "No one makes enough trades to learn effectively ONLY from their mistakes." That implies that the decisions made every day to not trade aren't trading mistakes. Otherwise everybody clearly has large numbers of possible mistakes to learn from.

And this "I never said sitting on your shares is always the best decision." is just misdirection, since nobody said anything about sitting on your shares being good or bad, just that it's a decision.

 

[AudubonB]

You have at least $7.3 Billion in your IRA?

Those RMDs are going to hurt, unless it is a Roth IRA... (I tried a couple RMD calculators, and they all barfed. One wouldn't go past $50M, while the investor.gov calculator stopped at $999,999,999. Which if you were 71 shows a $37,735,849.02 RMD. )

Finger slip. Added the additional digit.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Because you are taxed at 50% if you leave it in.

You could just take the shares out and put them in a regular account

What does selling or not selling the shares have to do with leaving it in or taking it out. Of course you take it out if it's required. But why would you sell the shares unless you need the money? I don't get it.