Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

Something I've been thinking about:

What ethics and regulatory issues does Tesla, as a technology company, present to the world as it scales? What affects will that have on Tesla as an investment?

I was reading this article in regards to social media:

the sun is going down and you're getting cold

...and that reminded me of Hiro Mizuno's reply to Elon Musk's comment about social media.

View attachment 628652

As it's a Musk company, I'm sure they're thinking things through 10-20 years down the line. Though, wondering what thoughts/concerns people have in regards to their investment(s) in Tesla and Musks' companies in regards to what we're seeing unfolding by other tech companies like, for example, social media.

As TSLA puts legacies out of their existence, I can see the displacement of workers in the millions. What happens, then, when TSLA becomes better and better at automation? Not only will TSLA be unable to absorb these workers, it will probably struggle to maintain its own payroll, from a functional perspective of course. Will TSLA have to pay a disproportionally large share of UBI taxes?

 

[goinfraftw]

As TSLA puts legacies out of their existence, I can see the displacement of workers in the millions. What happens, then, when TSLA becomes better and better at automation? Not only will TSLA be unable to absorb these workers, it will probably struggle to maintain its own payroll, from a functional perspective of course. Will TSLA have to pay a disproportionally large share of UBI taxes?

I don't know - though, with the amount of profit to be made from automation and a lack of work in manual labor for vehicle manufacturing...I'd think that a larger amount of training will be needed towards new types of jobs with renewable energy?

For example, for vehicle engineering, I'd assume a lot more can be done with better battery tech: like robotics which is a very small industry right now. Potentially management of tunnel networks and services? Also, solar installation, maintenance, analysis, and management are some too, right?

 

[samppa]

I'm probably wrong.. but to me it feels like S/X would be be perfect candidate to hone in 4680 cells and structural batteries.
If there are bottlenecks or yield is not so good, it doesn't matter that much - you just make a few less cars. Even if the operation is not profitable right away, it's not such a big deal.

Delivery times are really far away now. In us looks to be 7-11 weeks, in europe around March.

 

[Mich]

I'm probably wrong.. but to me it feels like S/X would be be perfect candidate to hone in 4680 cells and structural batteries.
If there are bottlenecks or yield is not so good, it doesn't matter that much - you just make a few less cars. Even if the operation is not profitable right away, it's not such a big deal.

Delivery times are really far away now. In us looks to be 7-11 weeks, in europe around March.

100% Agree. I also think the need to have a pilot product with front and rear casting and structual pack up and running before they go with 3/Y..

 

[-=buzz=-]

I'm probably wrong.. but to me it feels like S/X would be be perfect candidate to hone in 4680 cells and structural batteries.
If there are bottlenecks or yield is not so good, it doesn't matter that much - you just make a few less cars. Even if the operation is not profitable right away, it's not such a big deal.

Delivery times are really far away now. In us looks to be 7-11 weeks, in europe around March.

100% Agree. I also think the need to have a pilot product with front and rear casting and structual pack up and running before they go with 3/Y..

You seriously underestimate how much money S/X are bringing in. At 100k production rate they paid for all SG&A + R&D. Right now I'd bet they still carry at least one of those two. Until all the current factories under construction are up and running, that's the difference between break even and profitability.

Likewise the current battery consumption of S/X is ~6GWh/year. That's close to full rate production of the Kato Rd Development factory. So not some boutique vehicle numbers to use up a varying, (currently) low rate of cells making it through QA..

 

[printf42]

I'm probably wrong.. but to me it feels like S/X would be be perfect candidate to hone in 4680 cells and structural batteries.
If there are bottlenecks or yield is not so good, it doesn't matter that much - you just make a few less cars. Even if the operation is not profitable right away, it's not such a big deal.

Delivery times are really far away now. In us looks to be 7-11 weeks, in europe around March.

Personally I am not expecting 4680 and structural pack anytime soon, that would require additional tooling for welding the cells, also a complete body redesign, because upper body bearing less load and can probably be made lighter. I expect that to come with Plaid around end of the year.

For this refresh, I would expect heat pump, possibly a center console redesign with slot vent and landscape screen, if there is any visible change at all.

 

[Mich]

You seriously underestimate how much money S/X are bringing in. At 100k production rate they paid for all SG&A + R&D. Right now I'd bet they still carry at least one of those two. Until all the current factories under construction are up and running, that's the difference between break even and profitability.

Likewise the current battery consumption of S/X is ~6GWh/year. That's close to full rate production of the Kato Rd Development factory. So not some boutique vehicle numbers to use up a varying, (currently) low rate of cells making it through QA..

1) Elon will not ramp all new tech in Berlin first. (I should move to the "I called it" thread).
2) Sales of a new S/X with a full high tech casting/battery stack could go up to 250k++ per year. A roadster for the mass. A ramp during 2021 with an annual average of close to 100k would be ok. In 2022 when Model 3 moves to Texas S/X will ramp to 250k+ for global deliveries.

(I know I'm dreaming, but it would make sense).

 

[2daMoon]

As TSLA puts legacies out of their existence, I can see the displacement of workers in the millions. What happens, then, when TSLA becomes better and better at automation? Not only will TSLA be unable to absorb these workers, it will probably struggle to maintain its own payroll, from a functional perspective of course. Will TSLA have to pay a disproportionally large share of UBI taxes?

There will be jobs created by Tesla.

Someone will be needed to clean the puke out of the RoboTaxi fleet every morning after carrying the after-hours crowd home from the bars.

 

[JustMe]

There will be jobs created by Tesla.

Someone will be needed to clean the puke out of the RoboTaxi fleet every morning after carrying the after-hours crowd home from the bars.

Sounds like a good job for a robot

 

[2daMoon]

Sounds like a good job for a robot

A robot won't be able to tell if the smell is gone ...

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

There is still a big mystery here though. They definitely are producing something at this kato road thing, and judging by the video clips...they are producing it pretty fast. Tesla hate to be wasteful, so if the yield was really low, they would have totally stopped until it was better...
So MAYBE they grab some cool video clips for the 5 minutes a week that the factory is running, just to make a new batch of batteries to check yield... but its a BIG setup to build if you are still having problems getting usable cells from the system.

My gut feeling is that the new cells are going into a model S or X. Maybe they want a few thousand of them out in the real world before the admit this? we know tesla can remotely uncork batteries at will, so for all we know there are already some model S cars that can charge faster, or have better range, or better acceleration.

My bet is that there IS a mini-refresh of the S, and maybe the X coming, but not a design-refresh, just a tech thing. So better batteries in the same body for now.

As an investor...who cares? what matters is that tesla get good at producing these batteries so they can become the new default for the cybertruck, the semi, and eventually the 3 and Y. The S is the perfect product to do test installs in. Its low volume, needs a refresh anyway, and nobody wants to take the 3/Y production line down right now while the world is desperate for as many of them as possible.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

You seriously underestimate how much money S/X are bringing in. At 100k production rate they paid for all SG&A + R&D. Right now I'd bet they still carry at least one of those two. Until all the current factories under construction are up and running, that's the difference between break even and profitability.

Likewise the current battery consumption of S/X is ~6GWh/year. That's close to full rate production of the Kato Rd Development factory. So not some boutique vehicle numbers to use up a varying, (currently) low rate of cells making it through QA..

S/X production in 2020 was 54k, around 3.2GWh of batteries. The Kato road pilot target production is 10GWh/year, and the 2022 production target for 4680 is 100GWh (battery day figures) so as long as they are at 30% on the pilot line now they should be able to support S/X. If they cannot support this then they will really struggle bringing GF Berlin on line - 250k model Ys require 20GWh.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Holy crap, so they are moving every single car by trolley from paint to assembly? Around half of California it seems.

I thought the exact same thing. Its nuts. I was assuming these were specific models being taken for special purpose but...maybe not. If so, thats laughably inefficient. Especially given that it seems a very well defined route. At the very least, there should be robots doing this. No need to employ a whole bunch of people just to drive a body in white around all day.

My best hope is that they know some big re-design of the layout is coming soon (Semi maybe?) so its not worth optimizing a temporary measure, but presumably this has been going on for some time.

 

[Mo City]

A robot won't be able to tell if the smell is gone ...

Wrong.

 

[printf42]

I thought the exact same thing. Its nuts. I was assuming these were specific models being taken for special purpose but...maybe not. If so, thats laughably inefficient. Especially given that it seems a very well defined route. At the very least, there should be robots doing this. No need to employ a whole bunch of people just to drive a body in white around all day.

My best hope is that they know some big re-design of the layout is coming soon (Semi maybe?) so its not worth optimizing a temporary measure, but presumably this has been going on for some time.

That’s for GA4 only, probably they didn’t plan it to be “permanent”.
But that’s ok, Fremont is the giant lab, as long as there are lessons learned and put into other GFs gradually, the yield/efficiency of Fremont itself would be less and less relevant.
Fremont would be more about trying out new ideas and design/optimize new production lines etc.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting short thread...

https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1351295111016054784

To summarize... Elon said Shanghai could eventually produce 1M vehicles/year. The new road is at least 4 lanes wide in each direction. 1M cars a year would require about 400 car carriers a day, so the new road is being built to accommodate that kind of throughput.

 

[2daMoon]

Wrong.

You may be giving our robot overlords more credit than they are due.

Just because robots can smell some things, like alcohol, blood, urine, and sweat, is no guarantee that they can also discern the subtle nuances of any unique puke after consideration of the number of variables contributing to the complexity of a specific sample's aroma.

Robots Can Smell Now

Regardless, I champion any displaced UAW unemployee's right to make their living cleaning puke from Tesla RoboTaxis and look down my nose at those who would deny them that. (gotta keep this OT)

 

[hacer]

Holy crap, so they are moving every single car by trolley from paint to assembly? Around half of California it seems. Judging by this clip there is no way a driver can move more than 10 an hour at best. That would easily be a million dollars for 350k cars they are doing now. That's also assuming that's the only such extra transport that will be unnecessary in the new factories. They are gonna save so much money when most cars are NOT made in Fremont anymore.

I think this is only for the ones being assembled in the tent, which is one of several GA lines. Still quite inefficient.

 

[MC3OZ]

That’s for GA4 only, probably they didn’t plan it to be “permanent”.
But that’s ok, Fremont is the giant lab, as long as there are lessons learned and put into other GFs gradually, the yield/efficiency of Fremont itself would be less and less relevant.
Fremont would be more about trying out new ideas and design/optimize new production lines etc.

Once Austin is fully ramped I would not totally be surprised if Model Y production is moved out of Fremont.

Perhaps even Model 3 production may move out eventually..

High volume mass market production will always be more efficient at the newer factories...

Fremont could specialize in manufacturing R&D, and building lower volume models.

 

[hacer]

Solvent takes up space and when it's dried will leave voids. May also leave behind some trace material. Eliminating it should lead to some increase in density.

Any "voids" will be filled by electrolyte.