Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[phantasms]

How much power per cell? Imma start counting.

one...two........three....

23 x 40 = 920 cells

FWIW Munro estimated 960cells. There may have been a row missing in the leaked photo but not certain.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Another thing I think analysts overlook is the amount of subscription revenue Tesla will be getting. Assuming a $199/mo FSD subscription, and a 25% take rate, plus the $10/mo connectivity fee, Tesla could be pulling in, on average, about $60 per car per month. With 10M cars, that’s $600M/mo. Even if a 10% take rate on FSD, that would still be $300M/mo in recurring revenue that grows with the size of the fleet. It doesn’t seem crazy to me at all that Tesla could be bringing in more than $1B/mo in subscription revenue by end of the decade.

 

[hacer]

That's nothing. Toyota's contribution to autonomy: Toyota aims to give ADAS the skills of a professional driver | Autonomous Vehicle International

Teach a car to drift and it'll save your life when the need to drift a car to safety arises. Or something. Can anyone explain this drivel?

This is what Toyota is working on to automate in order to differentiate themselves from those ordinary autonomy companies:

 

[ggies07]

Electrek leaked a picture of structural 4680 battery
First look at Tesla's new structural battery pack - Electrek

I'm going to miss Jack's wonderfully dry sense of humor teardown of this....

 

[hobbes]

Electrek leaked a picture of structural 4680 battery
First look at Tesla's new structural battery pack - Electrek

Hm interesting that this pic comes just as we are speculating about an S/X refresh... Can anyone tell if this matches 3/Y or possibly S/X?

 

[Nocturnal]

I sold a fair bit of covered calls when we were at $880, mostly June/July $1200s. Bought them back. Pocketed a nice bit of change and I'm out of the way of the steamroller again. The good news seems to be piling up.

 

[stealthyc]

For folks who are looking for some income.

Take your margin that you don’t use and sell puts against it. If you get close to strike (I had 850s expiring this week with SP @ 842) you can roll them to next week and pocket a large amount of $. Rolled my 850s to next week’s 855 for a premium of $3.5k each. So far, selling covered calls and puts have brought in $33k in Jan. While HODLing as well of course.

Though it sounds like it - not advice.

I do similar things, but your post definitely does not highlight the risks involved and sounds like the typical "Sell options to get free money!" advice. Especially if you are selling options so aggressively near the money covered by margin. If the stock moves strongly against you (down in this case) you can end up in a difficult situation with your margin. I think it's best to try to envision what happens if the stock drops 50% prior to expiration. A lot of people say, well if you are assigned, just sell aggressive covered calls. That works great as long as the stock is not swinging wildly. Margin aside, the worst thing to happen would be for the stock to go way down, you get assigned, sell ATM CC and then have it whipsaw back up. Selling options for free money totally works until it doesn't like most things in the stock market.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Watching the ticker today is about as exciting as watching paint dry....

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hm interesting that this pic comes just as we are speculating about an S/X refresh... Can anyone tell if this matches 3/Y or possibly S/X?

No evidence of dual rear motors in the render, and the rear casting matchs nicely with this recent picture of the Model Y single piece rear casting:

So chances are good it's a render of the Berlin Model Y design (3 large castings, structural bty pack).

 

[ZeApelido]

Rough math on 23 cells in a row makes the pack size approximately similar to Model 3 / Y pack size, so maybe this is an image of a sample Model Y battery pack?

 

[MartinAustin]

And while Tesla almost certainly has enough silicon, If they were short they could go to 1 npu per computer as a stopgap measure. It would require putting in 2 npu computers into all cars who paid for FSD upfront, and swapping if someone upgraded. Of course this would be very costly and only done as a last resort.

Just an FYI, I believe Samsung in east Austin makes the main chips in the Hardware 3 board. (two per board)

So in theory, not affected by the global crunch. However, I would still really like to hear this question asked on the conference call.

 

[WattsHappening]

Watching the ticker today is about as exciting as watching paint dry....

Yep. Slightly disappointing after a long weekend and seeing posts last night about NASDAQ futures. But oh well. I'm kinda liking this consolidation. It wouldn't bother me in the least to see the stock trade sideways until the earnings call. Hopefully, there will be some announcements made then that become catalysts for the next move up.

 

[Mengy]

Watching the ticker today is about as exciting as watching paint dry....

Yeah, this is the most boring day I can remember for TSLA in a great long while.

 

[kanweg]

Yeah, this is the most boring day I can remember for TSLA in a great long while.

Apart from yesterday, of course.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Holding onto TSLA is the investor version of the marshmallow test.

 

[JustSaying]

So far, every analyst that updates TSLA price target publicly as TSLA moves higher and higher still seems to not get Tesla.

A few examples:
Anal Jonas target $810 with 5.1m vehicles in 2030, random number generator all right.
Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy similar to Adam Jonas target.
Bank of America $900 because blah blah blah.
Even Tesla bull Dan Ives price target at $950 with Tesla selling 1.1m vehicles in 2022 and 5m in 2030. No mentions of Energy or FSD……….what?! That doesnt add up.

So, these price targets have no fundamental understanding to back up. They are basically playing catch up to Tesla rise. Either these analyst are really dumb, they do understand Tesla, or they have different agenda behind curtains.

Large institutions……... are getting Tesla.
They have their own analysis on Tesla that never share publicly. They completely ignore price targets from 3rd parties. That’s why we see TSLA sky rocket in 2020, large institutions were buying Tesla left and right. They dont want to miss out on another Amzn opportunity. They start to believe and understand Tesla hyper growth and insane execution.

Some institutions are seeing FSD becoming closer and closer to reality, the endless FSD opportunities. Some are starting to understand the insane battery tech that Tesla has on its roadmap, and how that shows 20m cars in 2030 is possible. Some are seeing 6T+ energy sector that Tesla will steal $$$$$$ from. Advertising is being disrupted by Tesla along with many many different sectors.

So what does this all mean?
Analysts that publicly give Tesla price targets are still clueless about Tesla, or they have an underneath agenda. (except for Cahie Wood)

Some large institutions do understand Tesla. Last year run up was due to that. So part of FSD, Battery tech and/or Energy sector is being priced in by some large institutions.



English is not my 1st language, apologize for bad English.

Recently JP Morgan presented us a model portfolio that included 4% in US automakers of which 84% was Tesla.
i think that weighting is 2X higher than Tesla in the S&P.

 

[FireMedic]

A Taxi driver is a professional driver as is a hearse or ambulance driver.

I resemble that comment

 

[bkp_duke]

Yep. Slightly disappointing after a long weekend and seeing posts last night about NASDAQ futures. But oh well. I'm kinda liking this consolidation. It wouldn't bother me in the least to see the stock trade sideways until the earnings call. Hopefully, there will be some announcements made then that become catalysts for the next move up.

I'll take 1.x % gains all day, every day. Boring can be very lucrative.

 

[sub]

Another thing I think analysts overlook is the amount of subscription revenue Tesla will be getting. Assuming a $199/mo FSD subscription, and a 25% take rate, plus the $10/mo connectivity fee, Tesla could be pulling in, on average, about $60 per car per month. With 10M cars, that’s $600M/mo. Even if a 10% take rate on FSD, that would still be $300M/mo in recurring revenue that grows with the size of the fleet. It doesn’t seem crazy to me at all that Tesla could be bringing in more than $1B/mo in subscription revenue by end of the decade.

I'm assuming the connectivity is costing Tesla something on their end, so it isn't all profit.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm assuming the connectivity is costing Tesla something on their end, so it isn't all profit.

If you know, you know.