Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

The stationary battery market can pretty much absorb oversupply of cells for EV batteries. In this way, Tesla Energy adds value by mitigating overcapacity risks.

Tesla's advantage is moving so few vehicles compared to the rest. Allocating 800k chips to Tesla for the year is like a small blimp from semiconductor companies that issues out in the scale of 40-50 million.

 

[RobStark]

yet you won't buy another Tesla because of panel gaps which have since been corrected.

Alex won't buy another Tesla because Tesla would not replace yellowing touchscreen and laggy MCU on his 2012 Model S under warranty.

Sandy Munro got a Model 3 two months ago with horrendous panel gaps

When Sandy interviewed Elon, Elon did not dispute the panel gaps. He didn't claim it was an extreme outlier. He said when Tesla is ramping production it is tough to get the little things correct.

 

[jerry33]

What strategy are you using to guard against a market crash?

Purchased TSLA. It's the company that appears to be most resilient if the market crashes.

 

[kanweg]

What strategy are you using to guard against a market crash?

My plan is to quit my job before the market crashes, sell part of the shares to get rid of margin and money to live off for a year. If there is a market crash, I have the margin available to me and will use half of that to buy shares. The remainder of the margin I can live off for quite some time. When the market recovers, I rinse and repeat.

While I may lose in absolute amounts, I think I will sleep better and are less exposed than someone who has to sell stock cheaply to make ends meet. The above is also possible without the crash gamble. So, you live of margin when the stock is down and sell when it is high. If the stock stays low, you wasted some money on interest. However, the risk of a margin call is very low.

 

[mekberg]

Commence max pain walkdown.

 

[2daMoon]

I’m all for logic, practicality, reason, common sense. But there is a whole other level of understanding/consciousness when you strike a balance between head, heart and soul. Being ruled solely or mostly by the head is limiting whether you’re aware of it or not.

I’ve never punch listed my performance but I know people who do. Interestingly, I lead a happier life than they do and have been far more successful than they according to their punch list.

I embrace your uniqueness, but if you were actually doing what you say you do, you would do different. I offer that your punch list is lacking a few items.

Your feedback is very much appreciated. Thanks! But, you haven't seen my punch list.

Because you have alluded to this a couple of times I want to determine if there is something more to see here. It isn't clear to me how you interpret the punch list as relating to "my" performance. This punch list is for me to evaluate the performance of the company. To me, these are quite separate from one another.

If someone is walking through a project under construction and noting the items they find that could be addressed with the builder, do you see that in some way questioning the performance or confidence of the one doing the inspection?

This was but a video that summed up (in a FUDish way) a concise collection of items that can be monitored for change through time. It was how it was a concise collection that made it useful to me as an investor. Even though I was aware of most of the items on it already. It wasn't an epiphany or anything like that. The purpose of a punch list is to check off the items as they are dealt with, measuring the performance of the builder toward completion of the project. (builder=Tesla, project=increase TSLA gains for investors like me)

As for awareness of the balance you describe, sure, I grok what you are saying. While at the same time coping with most likely being "on the spectrum," so may have less say-so in how those influences are applied in the firmware. It is far from rare for me to notice how my view of the world usually differs from most other folks. This has led to lessons in forgiveness and strategic adaptation on my part to make up for a communication style that can, at times, be less than optimal.

At least misunderstandings with folks are less confusing for me now than they used to be, prior to realizing there may be good reason for it. Learning about this behavioral syndrome late in life has made a world of difference for better determining strategies on how to approach such things. Yes, being ruled by the head while fumbling clumsily with processing matters of heart and of soul is quite challenging working within such a hard-wired system. There are those aspects of life which I've never been able to fully immerse myself into while simultaneously being acutely aware they were missing, and important.

There are some plus sides, thankfully. For instance, becoming a SpaceX fan and stumbling into TSLA as a by-product of exploring all that is Elon. Then, immediately absorbing the data to connect the dots which revealed the investment opportunity before me. Just wish I had steered myself in that direction sooner. Still, got in at a good time (11/2019) and it has worked out quite nicely. Likewise, in 2007 I borrowed the max against my 401K and bought precious metals, just before that crash.

With any luck, retirement will be in a month or so, once I've beaten all the numbers to death with my spreadsheet while letting the SP percolate, and doing some catching up on a lot of retirement planning basics before relegating "the daily grind" to being but a reference to my morning coffee.

 

[Tslynk67]

I need someone to talk me off the ledge.
My finger is poised over the order button for a new MS.

Not the plaid but the long range...it is faster than my 2017MS...but I don't need faster than my current.."are you freaking kidding me"
It has longer range...but do I need the extra hundred miles??

Tesla is offering 2.49 interest rate...so no need to sell any sweet sweet shares.

OT because I MIGHT sell some chairs to put more down.

Not for politically correct nincompoops...

 

[Siksfive]

several months back I read a small BELIEVABLE article that forecast the Rivian Pick-up and SUV would not be the focus of Rivian because the major investment by an Auto Manufacturer (Ford? I can't remember) was dramatically reduced or withdrawn, and AMAZON was the PRIME BACKER of Rivian. And Amazon ain't interested in no stinking gentleman's Pick-up.
So Rivian was going to become a Panel van producer for years before it got to make the Pick-ups in any quantities at all.

You remember correctly. Rivian was going to partner with Ford and produce a Lincoln based on a Rivian platform. Once Covid hit, things changed. Not sure if it was mutual or decision, but that program went away, I'm guessing will be to the detriment of Ford in long run (not that they have much chance of salvaging their future now anyways). That said, Rivians internal dev of Truck and SUV program wasn't really impacted. Unless they live their own production hell, they will launch before the van.

 

[capster]

After 9 years, I’ve long since cared to or needed to in any way considered the other side of the argument. Nothing new has been said in all that time. I was right then, I’m right now.

Incoming Zen; at some point you become confident enough in yourself that you no longer need to keep checking opposing arguments thus essentially questioning your decisions.

I’m old enough to have learned that a few decades ago. Decision made in 2012. Not a single doubt since and no need to go looking for it.

A need to constantly be checking if a decision you made was correct is a show of a lack of self-confidence and can negatively affect current and future decision making.

My excuse reason for spending excessive amounts of time following this forum is that I’m watching my investment very closely.

And here you are, um, letting the cat out of the bag that that is not necessary?

Hrumph.

 

[capster]

Not for politically correct nincompoops...

Huh. Hadn’t realized the phrase "awful funny" must’ve come to America from across the pond.

 

[Pezpunk]

After 9 years, I’ve long since cared to or needed to in any way considered the other side of the argument. Nothing new has been said in all that time. I was right then, I’m right now.

Incoming Zen; at some point you become confident enough in yourself that you no longer need to keep checking opposing arguments thus essentially questioning your decisions.

I’m old enough to have learned that a few decades ago. Decision made in 2012. Not a single doubt since and no need to go looking for it.

A need to constantly be checking if a decision you made was correct is a show of a lack of self-confidence and can negatively affect current and future decision making.

this is a pretty lousy outlook on life, and terrible investment advice overall. Re-evaluating a company's direction and position is a necessary component to making any rational decision about it. Otherwise you're just operating on blind faith, which is a stupid thing to do.

Refusal to evaluate new information is a sign of weakness, not strength.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Interesting video from Doug DeMuro about how BMW has lost its cool factor because of Tesla (among other reasons). The people that used to aspire to own a BMW now want a Tesla instead.

 

[Tslynk67]

Interesting video from Doug DeMuro about how BMW has lost its cool factor because of Tesla (among other reasons). The people that used to aspire to own a BMW now want a Tesla instead.

God help us...

 

[Unpilot]

So 850 then...sounds about right.

 

[Tslynk67]

Huh. Hadn’t realized the phrase "awful funny" must’ve come to America from across the pond.

Trying to work out how my OP deserved an "informative"...

Derek and Clive were in fact the alter-egos of establishment comedians Peter Cook and Dudley Moore (the latter well know in the film "Arthur")

Some of their other "work" was really, really filthy... checkout "Worst Job he Ever Had"

 

[Tslynk67]

So 850 then...sounds about right.

Optimistic...

 

[Lessmog]

Concrete example: you have 2000 $TSLA shares, you sell 20x Jan 2021 $1675 strikes ~92 per contract = $184k - actually I wouldn't sell these now, as premiums just took a bit of a hit, you'd time it when it's on the up, like this last Tuesday, pricing was closer to $100, so $200k to last you 12 months (enough, too much, I don't know your situation, but it's about the number I'd be looking for)

Possible outcomes:
- your shares get called away before the strike date and you receive $3.35M cash
- the SP drops, IV crushes, the premiums on these calls goes so low, you decided to rebuy them, you keep the delta with the initial premium (note that the drop accelerates towards the expiry date due to time-decay)
- you hold to expiry: a) the SP is below the strike price - you keep the cash or b) the SP is above the strike price, your shares are gone, you get $3.35M cash

It basically hinges on whether you think the SP would double over the next year and whether you'd be happy to let your shares go at that price.

If they did get called away, and you receive all that cash, then you can immediately sell cash-covered puts for more income. In the case of puts, I would sell them shorter time-frame as you can be more aggressive with the pricing, working on the basis that you want to get those shares back.

Where it gets complicated is whether you have taxes due on the realised gains in the situation where your shares get called away. In my case not, so this type of trading is a no-brainer.

Well, actually, I think you may not find a buyer ... anymore.
By god, is that the time!

 

[Curt Renz]

Commence max pain walkdown.

indeed it is Friday, which implies weekly options expiration. The $850 strike has the greatest open interest and trading volume for both calls and puts. Big option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) would like to guide the share price there to protect their received premiums. Such manipulation has a cost, but the options expire today, while share trades can be reversed on Monday. The big guys are happy with pennies as long as they can shutout option owners. Often after such manipulation occurs on a Friday, TSLA pops upward nicely on Monday.

 

[c041v]

Interesting video from Doug DeMuro about how BMW has lost its cool factor because of Tesla (among other reasons). The people that used to aspire to own a BMW now want a Tesla instead.

I like Doug and found this to be an interesting and accurate take. At the time, I was smitten with BMW's 2001 lineup and forgot about all truly great cars they were producing in that era. I must have watched "Star" 100 times and have coveted an E39 M5 for years. A number of us had caught on early that Tesla had essentially leap-frogged BMW and other legacy makers in terms of image and cutting edge tech. I still remember my first drive in a Model S in late 2012 and thinking: "This is game over for everyone else."

BMW is completely lost right now, as are most legacy marques. There's lots of talk and some action, but much of it is too little, too late, and it's totally unclear what separates these companies from each other anymore. Doug was spot on that BMW's have completely lost their cachet and the fact that they produce 7 unique crossovers/SUV's models is laughable. While I sometimes wish Tesla had more offerings, what they do offer is truly best of class. There's no noise or strange niche-filling with their lineup - just incredibly well executed vision that gets better over time.

All of this was a great reminder of why Tesla is capturing the hearts and minds of many. They cut through the legacy marques like a hot knife through butter and, 8 years later, the Market Cap of Tesla and other makers reflects the fact that there's little more than a puddle of semi-hard butter on the table. We here knew this all along, but it's nice to see more "mainstream" sources acknowledging not only that Tesla is cool, but that other makers are no longer cool.

edit: Much of what I hear about legacy marques is something that competes with Tesla (The Tesla killer moniker seems to have died off) Nobody is talking about going in their own segment-leading direction, because they simply can't. Tesla is out-innovating everyone, so the best the former segment leaders can ever hope for is to produce something almost as good as a current Tesla model. I would hate to be a BMW Engineer these days.

 

[reardencode]

indeed it is Friday, which implies weekly options expiration. The $850 strike has the greatest open interest and trading volume for both calls and puts. Big option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) would like to guide the share price there to protect their received premiums. Such manipulation has a cost, but the options expire today while share trades can be reversed on Monday. The big guys are happy with pennies as long as they can shutout option owners. Often after such manipulation occurs on a Friday, TSLA pops upward nicely on Monday.

That nice pop earlier let me out of some 850s at a tidy profit, otherwise I'd be in the soup with the other 850C holders right now.